FIFA ranking: January 2019 probable ranking

Here is the probable January 2019 ranking, to be published on February 7th. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 59 currently scheduled matches in FIFA's fixture list, so including the complete predicted knock-out phase of the Asian Nations Cup 2019. Only 10 scheduled friendlies are not yet included.

A total of 69 matches is scheduled to be played until the deadline of February 4th.

FIFA ranking: January 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until February 4th, used to calculate the January 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: January 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the January 2019 ranking (without the knock-out phase of the Asian Nations Cup and other yet not scheduled matches). FIFA will publish the ranking on February 7th.

Most matches to be played in Asia: a few preparatory friendlies and the Asian Nations Cup in the United Arab Emirates in January. Also some, already traditional, Scandinavian mid-winter friendlies in the heat of the Middle East.

Also check the probable January ranking.

FIFA ranking: January 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA January 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (22 december 2018)

The format of the Asian qualification for the next World Cup is not yet known in detail. Looking at the AFC match calendar for the coming years it seems that the format will be the same as for the previous World Cup:

• 1st round: play-offs played in June 2019 (2 MD);
• 2nd round: group stage played from September 2019 until June 2020 (10 MD);
• 3rd round: another group stage played from September 2020 until October 2021 (10 MD);
• 4th round: play-off to determine the AFC number 5 played in November 2021 (2 MD).

Intercontinental play-offs will probably be played in 2022.

FIFA ranking: December 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday December 20th. Only one match to be played: a friendly between Oman and Tajikistan tomorrow. In total only two friendlies and the two legged semi-finals and final of the South East Asian Championship (also counting as friendlies) will contribute to the December ranking, so hardly any changes compared to November.

Oman will have 1295 points on spot 82 when they win, Tajikistan in that case 1158 on spot 120.
Oman will have 1290 points on spot 83 when they lose, Tajikistan in that case 1163 on spot 118.
In the table below I've used their current points and positions.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (10 december 2018)

The ten qualification groups for EURO 2020 were drawn last week. Now it's possible to simulate the complete match schedule, including the play-offs in March 2020 for the last 4 spots at the EURO's. These play-offs are a second chance for the group winners of the Nations League if they can't qualify directly by finishing first or second in their qualification group.

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (3 december 2018)

The group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 is finished. Yesterday was the draw for the qualification groups for EURO 2020 and today the draw for the Final Four of the Nations League. Finally all the ingredients are available for a complete simulation of the seeding for the European qualification for the World Cup 2022, bar the odd missing friendly of course.

I still think the July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

The qualification format is not yet known in detail. I will give probabilities for three different formats with seeding pots consisting of 9, 10 or 11 teams.