2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (22 december 2018)

The format of the Asian qualification for the next World Cup is not yet known in detail. Looking at the AFC match calendar for the coming years it seems that the format will be the same as for the previous World Cup:

• 1st round: play-offs played in June 2019 (2 MD);
• 2nd round: group stage played from September 2019 until June 2020 (10 MD);
• 3rd round: another group stage played from September 2020 until October 2021 (10 MD);
• 4th round: play-off to determine the AFC number 5 played in November 2021 (2 MD).

Intercontinental play-offs will probably be played in 2022.


The seeding for WC 2018 was as follows:

• 12 teams (ranked 35 - 46, first 6 seeded) played the first round (then already in March 2015);
• 40 teams (ranked 1 - 34 plus 6 first round winners) played the second round in 8 groups of 5 teams;
• 12 teams (8 group winners plus 4 best group runners-up) played the third round in 2 groups of 6 teams;
• group numbers 1 and 2 qualified for Russia and the two group numbers three went to the 4th round.

The seeding was always based on the most recent FIFA-ranking available at the moment the draw for a round took place.

Here are the results of 10.000 simulations of all currently scheduled matches with Asian teams involved. It contains all preparatory friendlies for the Asian Cup and the continental showpiece itself next month all the way to the final on the first of February 2019. I've done an earlier simulation of this tournament last May when the groups were drawn.

First the probabilities (%) for the Asian Nations Cup 2019, then the impact on the FIFA ranking of Asian teams ahead of the draw of the first round of Asian qualifying for the World Cup in Qatar.

The group results, ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
United Arab Emirates	52,11	26,82	14,44	6,63
Thailand	16,42	26,31	31,31	25,96
Bahrain	17,57	24,02	25,93	32,48
India	13,90	22,85	28,32	34,93
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Australia	51,84	26,72	14,43	7,01
Syria	24,19	32,72	23,81	19,28
Jordan	11,81	21,56	34,34	32,29
Palestine	12,16	19,00	27,42	41,42
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Korea Republic	63,34	26,24	8,10	2,32
China PR	26,45	42,16	21,36	10,03
Kyrgyzstan	6,30	18,90	39,78	35,02
Philippines	3,91	12,70	30,76	52,63
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Iran	68,72	21,87	7,37	2,04
Iraq	20,45	41,46	26,79	11,30
Vietnam	7,96	22,26	34,31	35,47
Yemen	2,87	14,41	31,53	51,19
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Saudi Arabia	38,85	25,77	19,36	16,02
Qatar	24,18	26,61	27,00	22,21
Lebanon	19,78	23,47	25,49	31,26
Korea DPR	17,19	24,15	28,15	30,51
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Japan	48,47	29,35	16,08	6,10
Uzbekistan	28,22	31,54	27,08	13,16
Oman	19,33	29,08	34,34	17,25
Turkmenistan	3,98	10,03	22,50	63,49

Round of 16

Iran	96,82
Korea Republic	96,75
Japan	91,62
United Arab Emirates	89,71
Australia	89,23
China PR	82,00
Iraq	81,98
Saudi Arabia	79,84
Uzbekistan	77,68
Syria	75,34
Oman	74,27
Qatar	71,26
Thailand	64,43
Lebanon	62,47
Korea DPR	58,19
Bahrain	57,56
India	57,08
Jordan	55,58
Vietnam	52,70
Kyrgyzstan	49,65
Palestine	47,69
Philippines	31,46
Yemen	30,27
Turkmenistan	26,42

Quarter finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the round of 16)

Iran	78,09		[80,65]
Korea Republic	77,74		[80,35]
Australia	64,74		[72,55]
Japan	64,31		[70,19]
United Arab Emirates	60,68		[67,64]
China PR	44,44		[54,20]
Uzbekistan	42,07		[54,16]
Syria	41,69		[55,34]
Iraq	40,14		[48,96]
Saudi Arabia	37,76		[47,29]
Oman	33,55		[45,17]
Qatar	28,12		[39,46]
India	25,68		[44,99]
Bahrain	24,34		[42,29]
Thailand	23,80		[36,94]
Jordan	20,88		[37,57]
Lebanon	20,36		[32,59]
Korea DPR	18,24		[31,35]
Palestine	16,86		[35,35]
Vietnam	11,41		[21,65]
Kyrgyzstan	10,93		[22,01]
Philippines	5,28		[16,78]
Yemen	4,48		[14,80]
Turkmenistan	4,41		[16,69]

Semi-finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

Iran	57,97		[74,23]
Korea Republic	52,53		[67,57]
Japan	43,24		[67,24]
Australia	41,71		[64,43]
United Arab Emirates	28,57		[47,08]
Uzbekistan	22,46		[53,39]
Syria	21,43		[51,40]
Iraq	17,97		[44,77]
Saudi Arabia	16,71		[44,25]
China PR	16,48		[37,08]
Oman	16,35		[48,73]
Qatar	11,21		[39,86]
India	8,28		[32,24]
Jordan	7,46		[35,73]
Lebanon	6,95		[34,14]
Bahrain	6,41		[26,34]
Korea DPR	5,71		[31,30]
Thailand	5,63		[23,66]
Palestine	5,11		[30,31]
Vietnam	2,47		[21,65]
Kyrgyzstan	2,34		[21,41]
Turkmenistan	1,13		[25,62]
Philippines	1,03		[19,51]
Yemen	0,85		[18,97]

Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi-finals)

Iran	42,60		[73,49]
Korea Republic	37,70		[71,77]
Japan	22,97		[53,12]
Australia	21,53		[51,62]
United Arab Emirates	10,48		[36,68]
Uzbekistan	9,16		[40,78]
Syria	9,01		[42,04]
Iraq	7,77		[43,24]
Saudi Arabia	7,47		[44,70]
China PR	6,21		[37,68]
Oman	5,47		[33,46]
Qatar	4,57		[40,77]
India	2,76		[33,33]
Lebanon	2,49		[35,83]
Jordan	2,05		[27,48]
Korea DPR	1,72		[30,12]
Bahrain	1,55		[24,18]
Palestine	1,51		[29,55]
Thailand	1,20		[21,31]
Vietnam	0,67		[27,13]
Kyrgyzstan	0,59		[25,21]
Turkmenistan	0,21		[18,58]
Yemen	0,16		[18,82]
Philippines	0,15		[14,56]

Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Iran	30,31		[71,15]
Korea Republic	19,40		[51,46]
Japan	13,41		[58,38]
Australia	11,81		[54,85]
United Arab Emirates	3,75		[35,78]
Uzbekistan	3,62		[39,52]
Syria	3,21		[35,63]
Iraq	2,81		[36,16]
Saudi Arabia	2,28		[30,52]
Oman	2,04		[37,29]
China PR	1,75		[28,18]
Qatar	1,58		[34,57]
India	0,89		[32,25]
Jordan	0,64		[31,22]
Lebanon	0,56		[22,49]
Bahrain	0,45		[29,03]
Korea DPR	0,42		[24,42]
Palestine	0,36		[23,84]
Thailand	0,32		[26,67]
Vietnam	0,19		[28,36]
Kyrgyzstan	0,12		[20,34]
Philippines	0,03		[20,00]
Yemen	0,03		[18,75]
Turkmenistan	0,02		[  9,52]

The FIFA ranking for Asian teams after the Nations Cup, ordered by average Asian ranking position:

bye to round 2:	avg_pos
Iran	1,395
Australia	2,687
Korea Republic	2,967
Japan	3,252
Saudi Arabia	6,740
Syria	7,367
United Arab Emirates	7,712
China PR	7,754
Oman	9,629
Lebanon	10,265
Iraq	10,785
Qatar	12,218
Uzbekistan	12,400
Kyrgyzstan	13,616
India	15,494
Palestine	15,595
Vietnam	16,397
Korea DPR	18,135
Jordan	18,143
Bahrain	19,702
Thailand	21,064
Philippines	21,579
Tajikistan	21,774
Chinese Taipei	23,889
Turkmenistan	25,081
Yemen	25,950
Myanmar	26,668
Hong Kong	27,743
Afghanistan	29,000
Maldives	30,000
Kuwait	31,000
Indonesia	32,000
Nepal	33,000
Singapore	34,000
seeded in round 1:
Malaysia	35,000
Cambodia	36,000
Macau	37,000
Laos	38,000
Bhutan	39,000
Mongolia	40,000
unseeded in round 1:
Guam	41,000
Bangladesh	42,000
Brunei Darussalam	43,000
Timor-Leste	44,000
Pakistan	45,000
Sri Lanka	46,000

---

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.