Copa America 2020 simulations (December 2019)

Last week was the draw for the Copa America 2020, to be played from June 12th to July 12th next year in Argentina and Colombia. This is the first edition in a new format of 2 groups of 6 teams instead of the awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Now simply the group numbers 1 to 4 qualify for the quarter finals. There are again 2 guests, this time Qatar and Australia as the last two Asian Champions.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

Gold Cup 2021 qualification play-offs simulations (December 2019)

The composition of the two qualification rounds, to be played next March and June, for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2021 was drawn two weeks ago. Both rounds contain four two-legged play-offs.

In the first round the 4 group winners of league C from the CNL 2019 were drawn against the 4 runners-up from the groups in league B. The 4 winners of these first round play-offs are then drawn against the 4 group numbers 3 from the groups in league A.
The 4 winners of the second round join the 12 already qualified teams for the Gold Cup 2021 final tournament.

FIFA ranking: December 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the last ranking of this year next Thursday December 19th.

The ranking publishing schedule for 2020 has not been presented yet, but seeing the complete lack of matches with any importance in the coming months unitl the next International Match Window in March, I would not be surprised if the next ranking would be the April 2020 ranking. We will see.

This December ranking will be used to seed the draw for the second round in World Cup qualifying for African teams, scheduled on January 21st.

EURO 2020 simulations (December 2019)

Now that the draws for the qualifying play-offs and the final tournament of EURO 2020 are made, it is time to take a detailed look to the chances of each country.

Here are the probabilities (in %), generated over 10.000 simulations. All match-results in each simulation are based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (November 2019)

The match days five and six of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 and MD4.

EURO 2020 qualifying play-offs simulations (November 2019)

After the confusion about the pairing of play-off paths, necessary to grant play-off path winners who are also host in EURO 2020 their own pre-designated group, the draw yesterday was pretty straight forward.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday November 28th.

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between October 20th and November 24th (Sunday deadline) the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-11-05 Malaysia - Maldives 2:1 (in Malaysia)
2019-11-23 Djibouti - Mauritius

In total 182 matches will count for this ranking.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA November 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the November 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on November 28th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including November 24th, used to calculate the November 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since October 21st, (probably) counting for the November ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 probable ranking

The upcoming FIFA international match window will be decision time for the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 and for the EURO 2020 qualification. For both tournaments the final two match days will be played. Further more, besides a handful of friendlies, the Asian World Cup qualifying continues with MD 5 and 6 and the AFCON 2021 qualifying group stage starts with MD 1 and 2.

Here is the probable November 2019 ranking, to be published on November 28th.

Qualification AFCON 2021 simulations (October 2019)

This November the first two match days of the group stage in qualifying for the African Cup of Nations 2021 will be played, in 12 groups of 4 teams. The group stage is played to a finish in Autumn 2020.
In between, in March and June 2020, the first two match days will be played of the second round of African qualifying for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. This is also a group stage consisting of 10 groups of 4 teams.

The exact date for the draw of the WCq group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the November 2019 ranking will be used to seed the draw for this group stage.

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (October 2019)

The match days three and four of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here for the simulation results after MD2.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (October 2019)

Match days three and four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

See here for more information about the CNL and the results of the initial simulations before the tournament started.
See here for more information about the qualification process for the Gold Cup 2021 and the results after MD2.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the whole CNL competition -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (October 2019)

The matchdays seven and eight in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here, here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 (March), MD4 (June) and MD6 (September).

FIFA ranking: October 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday October 24th.

This coming weekend the final 15 qualifiers for the African Nations Championship 2020 will be played. These matches will count for the October ranking.

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between September 16th and today the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-09-18 Congo DR - Rwanda 2:3 (in Congo DR)
2019-09-29 Bangladesh - Bhutan 4:1 (in Bangladesh)
2019-10-02 Dominican Republic - Cuba 0:0 (in the Dominican Republic)
2019-10-10 Niger - Zambia 1:1 (in Niger)
2019-10-13 Niger - Central African Republic 0:2 (in Niger)

In total 191 matches will count for this ranking.

FIFA ranking: October 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA October 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: October 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 24th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: October 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including October 20th, used to calculate the October 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since September 16th, (probably) counting for the October ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: October 2019 probable ranking

Autumn, NT-football at it's best with each month a FIFA international match window and lots of important, possibly decisive qualifiers. Besides the (preparatory) friendlies and the final qualifier legs in the African Nations Championship 2020 mostly World Cup qualifiers in Asia (MD 3 and 4), preliminary qualifiers for AFCON 2021 in Africa, MD 3 and 4 in the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 and MD 7 and 8 of the EURO 2020 qualifiers.

Here is the probable October 2019 ranking, to be published on October 24th.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (September 2019)

The first two matchdays for the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

The day before the first matches would be played CONCACAF announced that this tournament will also serve as qualification for the Gold Cup 2021. But hey, you don't hear me complaining, at least they announced it :)

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (September 2019)

The first two match days of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (11 September 2019)

The matchdays five and six in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 (March) and MD4 (June).

FIFA ranking: September 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday September 19th.

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between July 22nd and today the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-07-22 Djibouti - Somalia 1:0 (in Djibouti)
2019-08-14 Dominican Republic - Guatemala 0:0 (in Dominican Republic)
2019-08-28 Oman - Yemen 1:0 (in Oman)
2019-08-29 Chinese Taipei - Guam 3:0 (closed door match in Chinese Taipei)
2019-08-30 China PR - Myanmar 4:1 (closed door match in China PR)
2019-09-04 Burkina Faso - Libya 1:0 (in Morocco)
2019-09-08 Morocco - Burkina Faso 1:0 (in Morocco)

Included are all other friendlies, final part of the Indian Ocean Island Games, WAFF-cup, qualifiers for CHAN 2020 and of course all matches played in the September FIFA window: qualifiers for EURO, Gold Cup (aka CONCACAF Nations League) and World Cup (Asia and Africa). In total 221 matches count for this ranking.
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FIFA ranking: September 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA September 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: September 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the September 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on September 19th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: September 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including September 10th, used to calculate the September 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since July 22nd, (probably) counting for the September ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: September 2019 probable ranking

In the second half of July and the month of August relatively few important matches were played. That's why FIFA skips the publication of the August ranking and the next (September) ranking will be published after the next International Match Window.
After July 21st until now the remainder of the Indian Ocean Islands Games 2019, the West Asian Championship 2019 and the next round of qualifiers for the African Nations Championship 2020 were played, beside a few friendlies.

CAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (August 2019)

Next month also starts the African qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar with a first round, consisting of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked African teams. The draw was July 29th.
The fourteen winners join the other 26 African teams to form 10 groups of 4 teams in the second round, a double round robin group stage. First matchdays of the second round will be in the March-window next year. The exact date for the draw of the group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the December 2019 ranking will be used for seeding the draw for the group stage.

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (August 2019)

Next month starts the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. After a first round of 6 play-offs between the 12 lowest ranked Asian teams in June, the six winners joined the other 34 Asian teams to form 8 groups of 5 teams in this second round, a double round robin group stage. The groups were drawn on July 17th.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (July 2019)

Let's focus on the CONCACAF Nations League 2020. 

This competition will be played for the first time on six matchdays this Autumn, with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals and a final) in March next year. The composition of the leagues was determined in a qualification phase. The groups within the leagues were drawn last March.

There are 3 leagues, A - C. Each league consists of 4 groups. League A has three teams per group, league B has four teams per group. League C has 1 group of four and 3 groups of three teams. All teams in a group play against each other home and away.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday July 25th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between June 12th and today the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-06-14 Madagascar - Mauritania 1:3 (Morocco; 4x25 mins)

Included are all other friendlies and of course the high-valued matches in the continental cups (Copa America, Gold Cup and CAF Nations Cup). 
Then followed the not so aptly named Intercontinental Cup in India (which turned out to be between four Asian teams), the Pacific Games in Samoa and the still running Indian Ocean Island Games in Mauritius. These are all treated as friendly tournaments for the ranking calculation. So teams will lose points in knock-out matches in these tournaments.

Points per confederation

I was asked to analyse the number of points that per confederation are gained or lost through the new FIFA ranking calculation. An interesting question Amir, thank you.

The new ranking calculation is applied since June 4th 2018, some thirteen months now. In that time one World Cup and continental championships for CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, AFC and CAF were played. Tournaments with a relatively high weight were the UEFA Nations League, the CONCACAF Nations League qualifying and part of EURO and CAF qualifying. Tournaments with a relatively lower weight were several regional championships or qualifications for those. And of course a lot of friendlies were played, outside and inside official FIFA match windows.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including July 21st, used to calculate the July 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable ranking (II)

Yesterday Brazil and Mexico became champions of their confederation. The African Cup of Nations has just advanced to the quarter finals. The Pacific Games started today.

Here is a second preview of the probable July 2019 ranking, to be published on July 25th.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 31 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 39 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA July 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the July 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on July 25th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match. 

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including July 21st, used to calculate the July 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 

Also the already played matches since June 12th, (probably) counting for the July ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable ranking

With the June ranking published yesterday the action continues with three continental finals for CONMEBOL, CONCACAF and CAF to be played simultaneously. Furthermore, there are several preparatory friendlies for CAF-teams scheduled. And... almost all the OFC-nations have their first tournament since December 2017 with the Pacific Games in Samoa. New Zealand participates there with a U-23 team.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (12 June 2019)

The matchdays three and four in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here for the simulation results after MD2.

FIFA ranking: June 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Friday June 14th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between April 1st and yesterday the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-05-29 Cayman Islands - Cuba 0:0 (Cayman Islands)
2019-05-31 Cayman Islands - Cuba 0:1 (Cayman Islands)
2019-06-07 Guinea - Gambia 0:1 (Morocco)
2019-06-07 Tajikistan - Afghanistan 1:1 (Tajikistan)
2019-06-09 Ghana - Namibia 0:1 (United Arab Emirates)
2019-06-09 Uganda - Turkmenistan 0:0 (United Arab Emirates)
2019-06-10 Trinidad and Tobago - Canada 0:2 (USA)

FIFA ranking: June 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA June 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: June 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the June 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on June 14th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: June 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including June 11th, used to calculate the June 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since March 26th, (probably) counting for the June ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: June 2019 probable ranking

After the rather quiet months April and May the action starts in the fully packed months June and July: a whopping 3 continental finals for CONMEBOL, CONCACAF and CAF will be played simultaneously from mid June onwards. Before that EURO 2020 qualifiers and the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 finals are played. Furthermore, there are lots of (preparatory) friendlies scheduled and o yeah, the qualification for the next World Cup 2022 in Qatar starts with first round play-offs for the lowest ranked Asian teams. The COSAFA Cup 2019 in the meantime is already underway.

CAF Nations Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the African Cup of Nations 2019, played from June 21st to July 19th in Egypt. The format is expanded to 24 teams, playing in 6 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the first knock-out round, together with the four best group numbers 3. The placing of the qualified teams in the round of 16 follows the same system as the EURO 2016 and AFC Nations Cup 2019 tournaments.

CAF decided to use the April FIFA ranking to seed the continental showpiece, contrary to the previous CAF-tournaments.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

Copa America 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

On January 24th was the draw for the Copa America 2019, played from June 14th to July 7th in Brazil. This is the last time in the somewhat awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 and the two best numbers 3 qualify for the quarter finals.
Next year in 2020 already the Copa America will be expanded to 16 teams and from then be held in the same 4-year cycle as the EURO.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019, played from June 15th to July 7th in the United States with first round group B and C matches played in San José Costa Rica and Kingston Jamaica. The format is expanded to 16 teams, playing in the classic format of 4 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the quarter finals.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (28 March 2019)

The first two matchdays in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday April 4th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between February 4th and March 31st the following friendlies will be excluded:

2019-02-25 Cuba - Bermuda 2:2 (closed door match)
2019-03-10 Mozambique  - Swatini 1:1
2019-03-16 Suriname - Guyana 3:1
2019-03-25 Kuwait - Nepal 1:0
2019-03-26 Ghana - Mauritania 3:1
2019-03-26 Nicaragua - Guatemala 0:1

See here for 'my inclusion rules'. We will see next Thursday how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)

FIFA ranking: April 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA April 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my described inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the April 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on April 4th.

Also check the probable April ranking to find out about the inclusion-method I used for this preview.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until April 4th, used to calculate the April 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my described inclusion-method. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2019 ranking, to be published on April 4th. 

Which matches to include, that's the question. FIFA no longer maintains their fixture-list on their site. They direct you to the live scores section on their app for that. After a thorough examination of their whole app I found a selection of NT-tournaments match results. 

2019 CAF Nations Cup: 10000 simulations

Next month the last match day of qualifying for the CAF Nations Cup 2019 (Egypt this Summer) will be played. Already 14 teams are qualified, another 10 berths to play for. Here are the results of 10000 simulations of this match day. The results will also determine the seeding for the draw of the final tournament, based on the CAF NT ranking. 

FIFA ranking: February 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday February 7th. 

Some things are changed. 

First of all FIFA has, I surely hope temporarily, removed the fixture list from their site. The only official source regarding which matches to include in the FIFA ranking calculation is gone. That makes a reliable prediction of the next ranking a bit of a scientific guess, doesn't it ?

Okay, it's safe to assume that all matches in the Asian Nations Cup will count, but what about the 7 friendlies sofar in 2019 which could or could not count for the February ranking?

FIFA ranking: January 2019 probable ranking update

Here is an update of the probable January 2019 ranking, to be published on February 7th. This preview is calculated with updated elo-predicted results for the complete knock-out stage of the Asian Nations Cup 2019.

FIFA ranking: January 2019 preview results update

Now the group stage is finished, here is the promised update of the previewed matches in the complete knock-out stage of the Asian Nations Cup.