For this ranking the results in the following tournaments (weights in parentheses) are added:
- qualification CAF Nations Cup 2019 (2x)
- CAF Nations Cup 2017 (3x)
- qualification CAF Nations Cup 2017 (1x)
- CAF Nations Cup 2015 (2x)
- qualification CAF Nations Cup 2015 (0.5x)
- CAF Nations Cup 2013 (1x)
- World Cup 2018 (2x)
- qualification World Cup 2018 (1x)
The result in each tournament gives the following points
CAF Nations Cup:
8 - winner
6 - final
4 - semifinal
3 - quarterfinal
2 - 3rd in group
1 - 4th in group
qualification CAF Nations Cup:
4 - groupwinner
3 - 2nd in group
2 - 3rd in group
1 - 4th in group
World Cup:
20 - winner
12 - final
10 - semi final
8 - quarterfinal
6 - round of 16
4 - 3rd in group
3 - 4th in group
qualification World Cup:
7 - 1st in group and qualified
3 - 2nd in group
2 - 3rd in group
1 - 4th in group
Probability (in %) to qualify for the CAF Nations Cup 2019 and to land in each of the 4 pots of 6 teams for the draw of the final tournament.
| team | Q | pot 1 | pot 2 | pot 3 | pot 4 |
| Cote d'Ivoire | 100,00 | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Egypt | 100,00 | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Ghana | 100,00 | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Senegal | 100,00 | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Tunisia | 100,00 | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Morocco | 100,00 | 1,32 | 98,68 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Algeria | 100,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Mali | 100,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Nigeria | 100,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Guinea | 100,00 | 0,00 | 30,91 | 69,09 | 0,00 |
| Uganda | 100,00 | 0,00 | 5,16 | 94,84 | 0,00 |
| Mauritania | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 56,87 | 43,13 |
| Kenya | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 2,61 | 97,39 |
| Madagascar | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,51 | 99,49 |
| Cameroon | 98,68 | 98,68 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 87,78 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 83,90 | 3,88 |
| Namibia | 84,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 6,13 | 77,87 |
| Zimbabwe | 79,27 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 77,10 | 2,17 |
| Congo DR | 74,51 | 0,00 | 74,51 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Benin | 73,81 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,98 | 72,83 |
| Burundi | 66,62 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 7,41 | 59,21 |
| South Africa | 58,14 | 0,00 | 0,06 | 58,08 | 0,00 |
| Burkina Faso | 52,11 | 0,00 | 52,11 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Angola | 47,89 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 30,64 | 17,25 |
| Libya | 41,86 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 16,07 | 25,79 |
| Cape Verde Islands | 35,68 | 0,00 | 16,40 | 19,28 | 0,00 |
| Gabon | 33,38 | 0,00 | 20,09 | 13,29 | 0,00 |
| Tanzania | 32,84 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 32,84 |
| Lesotho | 31,48 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 31,48 |
| Mozambique | 28,22 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 18,97 | 9,25 |
| Liberia | 25,49 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 2,49 | 23,00 |
| Togo | 23,22 | 0,00 | 0,01 | 23,08 | 0,13 |
| Congo | 20,73 | 0,00 | 2,07 | 18,66 | 0,00 |
| Gambia | 2,97 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 2,97 |
| Comoros | 1,32 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 1,32 |
The FIFA-ranking of July shall probably be used to seed the draw for the CAF qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. Not very much other matches with CAF-teams involved are scheduled yet between March and July, but the COSAFA Cup 2019, (probably) the first round of qualification for the African Nations Championship 2020 and of course the CAF Nations Cup 2019 itself will be scheduled and will count for the July ranking.
Although, a slight problem has been created when the Egyptian organisation decided to postpone the dates of the AFCON 2019 with a week, supposedly to give the teams more proper preparation time after the end of the Ramadan (June 4th). But the tournament's final is now on Friday July 19th while the July FIFA ranking is published on Thursday July 18th with a normal deadline of July 15th. I'm curious to see how FIFA and CAF will solve this scheduling problem.
Anyhow, here is a first glimpse of the July ranking for African teams (but keep in mind that a lot of matches need to be scheduled yet). Teams are sorted by their average ranking position amongst African teams. As the qualification format for 2022 is not yet known in detail, the pots are according to the qualification format for the last WC in Russia. This format was:
- round 1: 14 home-and-away play-offs
- round 2: 20 home-and-away play-offs
- round 3: 5 groups of 4 teams.
Group winners qualify for the World Cup.
- round 1: 14 home-and-away play-offs
- round 2: 20 home-and-away play-offs
- round 3: 5 groups of 4 teams.
Group winners qualify for the World Cup.
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About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Hi Ed,
ReplyDeleteCan you please tell us the final pots for the 24 qualified teams?
Hi Fan, here are the pots for the draw of the AFCON 2019 on April 12th in Cairo:
ReplyDeletepot 1
Egypt (host)
Tunisia
Ghana
Senegal
Cameroon
Cote d'Ivoire
pot 2
Morocco
Nigeria
Congo DR
Mali
Algeria
Guinea
pot 3
Uganda
South Africa
Zimbabwe
Guinea-Bissau
Angola
Burundi
pot 4
Mauritania
Benin
Namibia
Tanzania
Kenya
Madagascar
Why Burundi pot 3
DeleteSame points Mauritania pot 4 (10 points)
CAF will decides the standings for Mauritania because they got more points (12 points) in the final qualifiers and Burundi (10 points)
thanke Ed
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteR Team Draw of CAN 2019 EGYPT Total
Delete2019 2017 2017 2015 2015 2013 2018 2018
AFCON AFCON AFCON AFCON AFCON AFCON FWC FWC
Q Q Q Q
×2 × 3 × 1 × 2 × 0.5 × 1 × 2 × 1
1 Tunisia 8 9 4 6 2 2 8 7 46
2 Ghana 8 12 4 12 2 4 2 44
3 Egypt (H) 6 18 4 0 1 0 6 7 42
4 Senegal 8 9 4 4 1.5 0 8 7 41.5
5 Cameroon 6 24 4 2 2 0 2 40
6 Ivory Coast 6 6 4 16 1.5 3 3 39.5
7 Morocco 8 9 4 0 0 2 6 7 36
8 Nigeria 8 0 3 0 1 8 8 7 35
9 DR Congo 6 9 4 8 1 2 3 33
10 Mali 8 6 4 4 1.5 4 1 28.5
11 Algeria 8 6 4 6 2 1 1 28
12 Guinea 8 0 2 6 1.5 0 1 18.5
13 Uganda 8 3 3 0 1 0 3 18
14 Guinea-Bissau 8 3 4 0 0 0 1 16
15 South Africa 6 0 2 2 2 3 1 16
16 Zimbabwe 8 3 4 0 0 0 0 15
17 Angola 8 0 2 0 1 1 1 13
18 Mauritania 6 0 3 0 0 0 1 10
19 Benin 6 0 3 0 0 0 1 10
20 Burundi 6 0 3 0 0 0 1 10
21 Tanzania 6 0 2 0 0 0 1 9
22 Namibia 6 0 2 0 0 0 1 9
23 Kenya 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 8
24 Madagascar 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 8
Biggest problem here is that there is no official documentation about the calculation method of the CAF-ranking. My assumption about the seeding ranking for AFCON 2019 is already a logical adaptation of the calculation of the seeding ranking for the AFCON 2019 qualifying tournament. So there is also no clear description of the tiebreaker rules in case of same points.
DeleteIn the wiki-page of the AFCON 2019 a pot-distribution is presented. Their source was a newspaper article in Sport Ivoire from yesterday. I have some slight doubts about it, because even the non-existant March 2019 FIFA ranking is mentioned as part of the calculation...
My own points-calculation however results in the same order of teams. So I decided to not invent new extra tiebreaker rules for the 3 teams (Burundi, Mauritania and Benin) with the same points in my calculation, but instead use the same pot-distribution. I think an accompanying note about this specific case would indeed have been more accurate.
I expect exciting game.
DeleteI discovered the movie.
Zidane play at Bordeaux. His pass is cool!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kr0T8ewE83Y
King regards