Some things are changed.
First of all FIFA has, I surely hope temporarily, removed the fixture list from their site. The only official source regarding which matches to include in the FIFA ranking calculation is gone. That makes a reliable prediction of the next ranking a bit of a scientific guess, doesn't it ?
Okay, it's safe to assume that all matches in the Asian Nations Cup will count, but what about the 7 friendlies sofar in 2019 which could or could not count for the February ranking?
I've assumed that
Jan 2 Oman-Thailand
Jan 8 Sweden-Finland
Jan 11 Estonia-Finland and Sweden-Iceland
Jan 15 Estonia-Iceland
will be excluded and that
Jan 27 USA-Panama
Feb 2 USA-Costa Rica
will be included in the calculation.
Why ? The excluded friendlies were termed 'non-FIFA friendlies', while both USA-friendlies are 'friendlies' according to Soccerway.
Another point of interest: FIFA has decided that from now on the ranking will not be published every month but only after a major tournament or International Match Window has been played. This results in only 8 rankings to be published in 2019 and the January, March, May and August ranking to be skipped. FIFA probably anticipated that in these months only a few and also small changes would occur in the ranking caused by only a few friendlies played in the preceding month.
So this final preview officially concerns the February 2019 ranking.
As a service I provide the 'unrounded' FIFA-points in the preview below.
With the final of the Asian Nations Cup this afternoon ending in a big surprise as Qatar beat Japan quite comfortably with 3:1, only tomorrow's USA - Costa Rica friendly stands in the way of the final preview.
This is how the points and ranks could change for both teams:
| min pts | low pos | max pts | high pos | |
| USA | 1496 | 26 | 1501 | 25 |
| Costa Rica | 1461 | 37 | 1466 | 36 |
In the table below I've used their current points and positions.
Best movers:
38 - Qatar
23 - Japan
14 - Korea Republic
Worst movers:
-12 - Korea DPR
-9 - Syria, Turkmenistan
Best movers in the top 50:
23 - Japan
14 - Korea Republic
7 - Iran
Worst movers in the top 50:
-3 - Morocco
-2 - 13 teams
One team will once again improve their best ever ranking:
Kosovo (130 - 131 in November 2018)
February 2019 rank - Team - February 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Belgium | 1727,48 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 2 | France | 1725,88 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 3 | Brazil | 1676,14 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 4 | Croatia | 1634,38 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 5 | England | 1630,95 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 6 | Portugal | 1613,51 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 7 | Uruguay | 1608,94 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 8 | Switzerland | 1599,32 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 9 | Spain | 1590,69 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 10 | Denmark | 1589,15 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 11 | Argentina | 1582,38 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 12 | Colombia | 1575,15 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 13 | Chile | 1565,08 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 14 | Sweden | 1559,72 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 14 | Netherlands | 1559,52 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 16 | Germany | 1558,49 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 17 | Mexico | 1539,89 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 18 | Italy | 1538,64 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 19 | Wales | 1524,66 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 20 | Poland | 1518,37 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 20 | Peru | 1518,19 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 22 | Iran | 1515,74 | 7 | 35,0 |
| 23 | Austria | 1509,06 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 24 | Senegal | 1504,97 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 25 | Romania | 1500,98 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 26 | USA | 1499,06 | -1 | 2,0 |
| 27 | Japan | 1494,70 | 23 | 81,0 |
| 28 | Tunisia | 1493,42 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 29 | Slovakia | 1482,50 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 30 | Ukraine | 1481,94 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 31 | Serbia | 1480,67 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 32 | Venezuela | 1478,42 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 33 | Paraguay | 1475,55 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 34 | Republic of Ireland | 1474,20 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 35 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1472,23 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 36 | Northern Ireland | 1464,78 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 37 | Costa Rica | 1463,65 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 38 | Iceland | 1452,02 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 39 | Korea Republic | 1451,21 | 14 | 46,0 |
| 40 | Scotland | 1446,29 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 41 | Turkey | 1442,85 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 42 | Australia | 1441,07 | -1 | 5,0 |
| 43 | Morocco | 1439,86 | -3 | 0,0 |
| 44 | Czech Republic | 1434,70 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 45 | Greece | 1428,31 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 46 | Nigeria | 1427,13 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 46 | Montenegro | 1426,69 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 48 | Bulgaria | 1425,17 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 48 | Norway | 1424,57 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 50 | Russia | 1423,50 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 51 | Congo DR | 1419,89 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 52 | Hungary | 1412,13 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 52 | Ghana | 1411,66 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 54 | Jamaica | 1404,03 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 55 | Qatar | 1398,33 | 38 | 140,0 |
| 56 | Cameroon | 1393,74 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 57 | Egypt | 1393,28 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 58 | Ecuador | 1382,31 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 59 | Finland | 1377,90 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 60 | Bolivia | 1374,25 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 61 | Albania | 1371,85 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 62 | Burkina Faso | 1371,11 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 63 | Slovenia | 1368,98 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 63 | Honduras | 1368,86 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 65 | Mali | 1363,44 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 66 | Cote d'Ivoire | 1355,50 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 67 | United Arab Emirates | 1354,78 | 12 | 46,0 |
| 68 | Guinea | 1353,80 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 69 | Algeria | 1348,97 | -2 | 2,0 |
| 70 | Saudi Arabia | 1343,79 | -1 | 9,0 |
| 71 | FYR Macedonia | 1342,67 | -3 | 0,0 |
| 72 | China PR | 1338,88 | 4 | 22,0 |
| 73 | El Salvador | 1326,95 | -3 | 0,0 |
| 74 | South Africa | 1324,72 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 74 | Cape Verde Islands | 1324,56 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 76 | Panama | 1324,08 | -5 | -2,0 |
| 77 | Uganda | 1320,16 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 78 | Belarus | 1316,60 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 79 | Canada | 1314,39 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 80 | Iraq | 1309,72 | 8 | 39,0 |
| 81 | Curacao | 1305,93 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 82 | Zambia | 1291,67 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 83 | Syria | 1286,46 | -9 | -36,0 |
| 84 | Congo | 1280,40 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 85 | Lebanon | 1276,63 | -4 | -19,0 |
| 85 | Gabon | 1276,60 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 87 | Luxembourg | 1276,15 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 87 | Cyprus | 1275,73 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 89 | Uzbekistan | 1275,23 | 6 | 24,0 |
| 90 | Oman | 1273,49 | -8 | -22,0 |
| 91 | Georgia | 1268,90 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 92 | Israel | 1264,93 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 93 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1260,26 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 94 | Benin | 1257,40 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 95 | Kyrgyzstan | 1250,44 | -4 | -14,0 |
| 96 | Estonia | 1241,66 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 97 | Faroe Islands | 1238,33 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 97 | Jordan | 1237,98 | 12 | 42,0 |
| 99 | Vietnam | 1228,98 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 100 | Palestine | 1226,09 | -1 | -10,0 |
| 101 | Mauritania | 1222,19 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 101 | Armenia | 1221,94 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 103 | India | 1218,92 | -6 | -21,0 |
| 103 | Haiti | 1218,54 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 105 | Libya | 1216,56 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 106 | Kenya | 1210,03 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 107 | Madagascar | 1208,96 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 108 | Azerbaijan | 1205,57 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 109 | Niger | 1204,79 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 110 | Namibia | 1190,72 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 111 | Bahrain | 1187,71 | 2 | 10,0 |
| 112 | Central African Republic | 1180,31 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 113 | Zimbabwe | 1174,96 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 114 | Sierra Leone | 1172,13 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 115 | Thailand | 1168,85 | 3 | 9,0 |
| 116 | Mozambique | 1166,69 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 117 | Kazakhstan | 1159,08 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 118 | Guinea-Bissau | 1157,63 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 119 | New Zealand | 1157,36 | 3 | 0,0 |
| 120 | Tajikistan | 1155,30 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 121 | Korea DPR | 1152,27 | -12 | -44,0 |
| 122 | Togo | 1136,15 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 123 | Chinese Taipei | 1134,47 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 124 | Philippines | 1132,54 | -8 | -38,0 |
| 125 | Angola | 1131,37 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 126 | Antigua and Barbuda | 1126,31 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 127 | Sudan | 1120,11 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 128 | Nicaragua | 1119,23 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 129 | Malawi | 1115,12 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 130 | Kosovo | 1113,48 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 131 | Latvia | 1112,09 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 132 | Andorra | 1111,14 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 132 | Lithuania | 1111,06 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 134 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 1104,73 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 135 | Rwanda | 1094,39 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 136 | Turkmenistan | 1088,93 | -9 | -31,0 |
| 137 | Tanzania | 1087,05 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 138 | Myanmar | 1085,35 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 138 | Burundi | 1084,85 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 140 | Hong Kong | 1078,49 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 140 | Swaziland | 1077,82 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 142 | Comoros | 1076,41 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 143 | Solomon Islands | 1072,97 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 143 | Yemen | 1072,83 | -8 | -33,0 |
| 145 | Botswana | 1071,42 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 146 | Lesotho | 1068,89 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 147 | Afghanistan | 1065,75 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 148 | Equatorial Guinea | 1062,94 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 149 | Guatemala | 1061,07 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 150 | Liberia | 1050,91 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 151 | Ethiopia | 1048,88 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 152 | Maldives | 1046,21 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 153 | Suriname | 1037,03 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 154 | Dominican Republic | 1036,44 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 154 | New Caledonia | 1036,30 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 156 | Mauritius | 1022,16 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 157 | Tahiti | 1020,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 158 | Kuwait | 1017,75 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 159 | Indonesia | 1002,66 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 160 | Belize | 1001,75 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 161 | Nepal | 1000,73 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 162 | Barbados | 998,17 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 163 | Vanuatu | 995,70 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 164 | South Sudan | 994,36 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 165 | Singapore | 990,51 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 166 | Gambia | 986,13 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 167 | Malaysia | 985,38 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 168 | Papua New Guinea | 984,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 169 | Fiji | 981,15 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 170 | Moldova | 978,89 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 171 | St. Lucia | 975,86 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 172 | Cambodia | 970,04 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 173 | Grenada | 967,85 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 174 | Cuba | 962,57 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 175 | Chad | 956,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 176 | Bermuda | 952,34 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 177 | Guyana | 950,79 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 178 | Dominica | 950,13 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 179 | Puerto Rico | 947,60 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 180 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 945,77 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 181 | Liechtenstein | 937,48 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 182 | Malta | 926,03 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 183 | Macau | 924,61 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 184 | Laos | 922,56 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 185 | Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe | 920,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 186 | Bhutan | 917,03 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 187 | Aruba | 915,82 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 188 | Mongolia | 915,24 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 189 | Seychelles | 910,70 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 190 | American Samoa | 908,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 190 | Cook Islands | 908,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 192 | Guam | 907,22 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 192 | Bangladesh | 906,50 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 194 | Gibraltar | 904,71 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 195 | Brunei Darussalam | 902,72 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 196 | Timor-Leste | 899,72 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 197 | Samoa | 896,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 197 | Djibouti | 896,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 199 | Pakistan | 887,52 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 200 | Montserrat | 887,34 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 201 | Sri Lanka | 885,78 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 202 | US Virgin Islands | 880,89 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 203 | Cayman Islands | 874,44 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 204 | Tonga | 868,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 204 | Eritrea | 868,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 204 | Somalia | 868,00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 207 | British Virgin Islands | 866,77 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 208 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 864,12 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 208 | Anguilla | 863,80 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 210 | Bahamas | 858,38 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 211 | San Marino | 854,12 | 0 | 0,0 |
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Thanks Ed.... Great movements after AFC cup.
ReplyDeletewe appreciate if you can update next week the 2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC), showing expected Pots of the draw.
Tarek,
DeleteIf the AFC match Calendar for 2019 is correct, the first round of Asian qualification, six two-legged play-offs between the 12 lowest ranked AFC teams, is played in the June International Match Window. So the seeding ranking would be the April 2019 ranking.
At the moment only 3 matches with Asian teams involved are scheduled between the February ranking previewed above and the April ranking: Japan - Colombia, Vietnam - Korea Republic and Japan - Bolivia, all friendlies and played in the March window. This means that the April ranking for the lower ranked Asian teams is already fixed:
seeded in round 1:
Malaysia
Cambodia
Macau
Laos
Bhutan
Mongolia
unseeded in round 1:
Guam
Bangladesh
Brunei Darussalam
Timor-Leste
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
All other AFC-teams have a bye to the second qualification round. And it is yet unknown which ranking will be used to seed the draw for that round. It also could be the April ranking, but maybe it will be the July ranking, the prevailing ranking if the second round is drawn in July, together with some other confederations.
Today a friendly Cambodia - Bangladesh is scheduled for March 9th (outside the International Match Window, I=5, max points exchanged 2.8 with a Bangladesh win).
DeleteDon't know if it will be included. Bangladesh could overtake Guam with a win, but Mongolia is out of reach.
Ed how much points Sweden loses if the friendlies are counted
ReplyDeleteIf both friendlies are included Sweden loses 4 points.
DeleteEd could you please use Point (.) in place of Comma (,) to indicate the decimal values.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
A fam of this website for the past 2 years or more
Hey, do you know when the women's ranking will be updated?
ReplyDeleteMarch 29th. See this calendar for the complete schedule in 2019.
ReplyDeleteThanks, also is there no way to access the official fixture list anymore?
DeleteEd, whould you please tell us if in change of ghatar, Iran was asian cup winner, how much it would climb?
ReplyDeleteIran would have been 19th with 1534 points after a win in the semi-final against Japan and a win in the final against Qatar
ReplyDeleteEd, I having trouble calculating the exact fifa ranking points of the last match-up between India and Bahrain in the Asian cup final. I came up with the calculation as 1218.82 instead of 1218.92 for India and I have 1185.37 for Bahrain. Can you show me the calculation?
ReplyDeleteThe resulting points will be heavily dependent on previous matches played between the December 2018 ranking and the match IND-BHR. Here is some calculation information. If you need more, just let me know.
ReplyDeleteIndia December 2018 ranking 1239.521
after OMA friendly 1239.786; I = 5, We IND = 0.447
after THA AFC Cup 1254.616; I = 35, We IND = 0.576
after UAE AFC Cup 1238.788; I = 35, We IND = 0.452
after BHR AFC Cup 1218.920; I = 35, We IND = 0.568
Bahrain December 2018 ranking 1177.607
after TJK friendly 1180.011; I = 5, We BHR = 0.519
after PRK friendly 1182.589; I = 5, We BHR = 0.484
after UAE AFC Cup 1186.743; I = 35, We BHR = 0.381
after THA AFC Cup 1167.839; I = 35, We BHR = 0.540
after IND AFC Cup 1187.707; I = 35, We BHR = 0.432
After the publication of the February ranking yesterday I have determined that 4 adjustments to my original assumptions have been made:
ReplyDelete- 31/12 Palestine - Kyrgyzstan friendly included
- 31/12 Vietnam - Philippines friendly excluded
- 11/1 Estonia - Finland friendly included
- 15/1 Estonia - Iceland friendly included
These matches and all subsequent matches of involved teams are recalculated. This results in negligible changes in rounded points compared to the preview above, except for the teams in the 4 mentioned matches.
Ed why the matches of Estonia were included and Sweden not?
ReplyDeleteComparing the squad in the friendly against Finland with the Swedish players that played Russia for the Nations League in November I see 22 different players (!).
ReplyDeleteI think the Swedes have indicated to FIFA that their matches in Qatar are just training matches, not official A-internationals.
Hi Ed
ReplyDeleteWhen you made the adjustments on the fifa calculations how did fifa determined that the matchup between Vietnam and Philippines on December 31 was excluded in the regular fifa friendlies and how do we determine that which fifa international friendly games count toward the fifa ranking?
Thanks
As you can understand, each match that is included or after all excluded from the ranking calculation influences the starting value for the next match of a team and thus the resulting FIFA ranking points of the team on the publishing date of a ranking. So it's very important when making a reliable prediction of the next ranking to have one official source which matches to include. FIFA provided that source 'since forever', but now it's suddenly gone. Don't know why and if it will be temporarily or not.
ReplyDeleteFIFA has it's own specific set of conditions when evaluating if a match can be included in the ranking:
- Observance of the Laws of the Game;
- The main referee and both assistants must be listed on the current FIFA list of international referees;
- It is not compulsory that the fourth official be included on the FIFA list of international referees but if a non-FIFA listed fourth official is required to replace the referee or assistant during an international "A" match, this match will not be included;
- The referee and assistant referees shall be from a neutral country unless otherwise previously agreed by the teams concerned;
- Only a maximum of six substitutions per team can be made during the match.
Furthermore a team can express to FIFA that the match is just a training match. It's obvious that a match needs to be known at FIFA's to be included at all.
I just saw that the match Vietnam-Philippines on December 31st was played as 3 parts of 30 minutes each and that's against the Laws of the Game. So after all it was evident that that match should be excluded. FIFA can change the status of a match (in- or exclude) when they receive the official match report, which can take several days from certain regions.
So you can see, it's a continuous process and it takes some effort to keep track of all the changes, updates, inclusions and exclusions. But that's a necessary part if you want to be as reliable as possible.
For now, the only official 'source' is the published ranking so eventual adjustments have to be made retroactively. It goes without saying that I surely hope they reinstate their fixture list as soon as possible...
I emailed Fifa (repeatedly!) about this and eventually received the below reply:
Delete"Thank you for your email.
Please note that live scores and results will only be available via the Official FIFA App in the future.
We hope you find the above information helpful and thank you for your commitment to the beautiful game."
So it is not looking good for it being restored! I replied saying the app doesn't actually give a list of international scores only so the reply wasn't helpful at all, but am still waiting on a response!
Thanks for this info, Chappers. I also emailed but got no reply at all. But then again, I only emailed once :)
DeleteThe app indeed does not give anything that remotely resembles a fixture list with matches between national football teams, but maybe that's still to come. For now, bummer !
I have a question about the February Fifa ranking on both Swaziland and Hong Kong at 140th with 1078 points. How is it that Swaziland gets the tie-breaker over Hong Kong? I have Hong Kong with the exact number of points of 1078.49 and Swaziland with 1077.82 points.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Yemen and Solomon Islands at spot 143 are also not in the correct order. Other teams on same rounded points are presented in the correct order.
DeleteThe exact order could mean a lot of difference when seeding teams though, so all I can say is: very sloppy, presenting it in this random way. It doesn't do any justice to the status FIFA wants to give to the ranking.