I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between February 4th and March 31st the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-02-25 Cuba - Bermuda 2:2 (closed door match)
2019-03-10 Mozambique - Swatini 1:1
2019-03-16 Suriname - Guyana 3:1
2019-03-25 Kuwait - Nepal 1:0
2019-03-26 Ghana - Mauritania 3:1
2019-03-26 Nicaragua - Guatemala 0:1
See here for 'my inclusion rules'. We will see next Thursday how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)
Best movers:
8 - Israel
6 - Tanzania
5 - Republic of Ireland, Congo DR, Niger, Equatorial Guinea
-11 - Austria
-8 - Congo
-5 - Montenegro, Gabon, Faroe Islands, Armenia
Best movers in the top 50:
5 - Republic of Ireland, Congo DR
4 - Nigeria, Russia
Worst movers in the top 50:
-11 - Austria
-4 - Scotland, Czech Republic
One team will once again improve their best ever ranking:
Kosovo (128 - 130 in February 2019)
Two teams return to their best ever ranking:
Senegal (23 in November 2017)
Venezuela (29 in August 2014)
One team returns to their lowest ranking:
Anguilla (209 in April 2015)
Two teams drop to new lows:
Sri Lanka (202 - 201 in October 2018)
Cayman Islands (206 - 205 in December 2014)
April 2019 rank - Team - April 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Belgium | 1737.15 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | France | 1733.75 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Brazil | 1675.99 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | England | 1646.62 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Croatia | 1620.60 | -1 | -13 |
| 6 | Uruguay | 1612.69 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Portugal | 1607.38 | -1 | -7 |
| 8 | Switzerland | 1604.35 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Spain | 1601.21 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Denmark | 1586.00 | 0 | -3 |
| 11 | Argentina | 1580.05 | 0 | -2 |
| 12 | Colombia | 1573.22 | 0 | -2 |
| 13 | Germany | 1570.46 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Sweden | 1567.21 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Chile | 1559.32 | -2 | -6 |
| 16 | Netherlands | 1553.87 | -2 | -6 |
| 17 | Italy | 1549.50 | 1 | 11 |
| 18 | Mexico | 1549.43 | -1 | 9 |
| 19 | Wales | 1539.01 | 0 | 14 |
| 20 | Poland | 1534.73 | 0 | 17 |
| 21 | Peru | 1516.07 | -1 | -2 |
| 21 | Iran | 1515.70 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Senegal | 1514.71 | 1 | 10 |
| 24 | USA | 1505.79 | 1 | 5 |
| 25 | Romania | 1496.41 | 0 | -5 |
| 26 | Japan | 1494.26 | 1 | -1 |
| 27 | Ukraine | 1492.95 | 3 | 11 |
| 28 | Tunisia | 1491.18 | 0 | -2 |
| 29 | Serbia | 1484.45 | 2 | 3 |
| 29 | Venezuela | 1484.40 | 3 | 6 |
| 29 | Republic of Ireland | 1484.38 | 5 | 10 |
| 32 | Slovakia | 1481.64 | -3 | -1 |
| 33 | Northern Ireland | 1481.03 | 3 | 16 |
| 34 | Austria | 1479.11 | -11 | -30 |
| 35 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1478.01 | 0 | 6 |
| 36 | Paraguay | 1466.66 | -3 | -9 |
| 37 | Korea Republic | 1461.76 | 1 | 11 |
| 38 | Costa Rica | 1457.53 | -1 | -3 |
| 39 | Turkey | 1457.10 | 2 | 14 |
| 40 | Iceland | 1449.88 | -2 | -1 |
| 41 | Australia | 1441.01 | 1 | 0 |
| 42 | Nigeria | 1434.76 | 4 | 8 |
| 43 | Greece | 1432.75 | 2 | 5 |
| 44 | Scotland | 1430.01 | -4 | -16 |
| 45 | Morocco | 1429.28 | -2 | -11 |
| 46 | Congo DR | 1424.78 | 5 | 5 |
| 46 | Russia | 1424.72 | 4 | 1 |
| 48 | Czech Republic | 1423.90 | -4 | -11 |
| 49 | Ghana | 1419.55 | 3 | 8 |
| 49 | Norway | 1419.54 | -1 | -5 |
| 51 | Hungary | 1419.13 | 1 | 7 |
| 51 | Montenegro | 1418.98 | -5 | -8 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 1418.57 | -3 | -6 |
| 54 | Cameroon | 1399.45 | 2 | 5 |
| 55 | Qatar | 1398.34 | 0 | 0 |
| 56 | Jamaica | 1391.00 | -2 | -13 |
| 57 | Egypt | 1384.34 | 0 | -9 |
| 58 | Burkina Faso | 1380.14 | 4 | 9 |
| 59 | Ecuador | 1378.34 | -1 | -4 |
| 60 | Finland | 1375.04 | -1 | 0 |
| 61 | Honduras | 1368.95 | 2 | 0 |
| 62 | Albania | 1367.87 | -1 | -4 |
| 63 | Slovenia | 1366.12 | 0 | -3 |
| 64 | Bolivia | 1365.01 | -4 | -9 |
| 64 | Mali | 1364.66 | 1 | 2 |
| 64 | Cote d'Ivoire | 1364.51 | 2 | 9 |
| 67 | United Arab Emirates | 1359.04 | 0 | 4 |
| 68 | FYR Macedonia | 1350.37 | 3 | 7 |
| 68 | Guinea | 1349.79 | 0 | -4 |
| 70 | Algeria | 1347.91 | -1 | -1 |
| 71 | El Salvador | 1343.57 | 2 | 17 |
| 72 | Saudi Arabia | 1341.57 | -2 | -2 |
| 73 | South Africa | 1334.67 | 1 | 10 |
| 74 | Panama | 1327.02 | 2 | 3 |
| 74 | China PR | 1326.87 | -2 | -12 |
| 76 | Cape Verde Islands | 1318.88 | -2 | -6 |
| 76 | Iraq | 1318.66 | 4 | 9 |
| 78 | Canada | 1314.39 | 1 | 0 |
| 79 | Uganda | 1302.41 | -2 | -18 |
| 79 | Zambia | 1301.78 | 3 | 10 |
| 81 | Belarus | 1300.82 | -3 | -16 |
| 82 | Curacao | 1295.95 | -1 | -10 |
| 83 | Syria | 1286.89 | 0 | 1 |
| 84 | Israel | 1285.07 | 8 | 20 |
| 85 | Uzbekistan | 1278.62 | 4 | 4 |
| 86 | Luxembourg | 1276.89 | 1 | 1 |
| 86 | Oman | 1276.63 | 4 | 4 |
| 86 | Lebanon | 1276.63 | -1 | 0 |
| 89 | Cyprus | 1276.14 | -2 | 0 |
| 90 | Gabon | 1272.19 | -5 | -5 |
| 91 | Benin | 1267.05 | 3 | 10 |
| 92 | Congo | 1265.41 | -8 | -15 |
| 93 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1257.60 | 0 | -2 |
| 94 | Georgia | 1255.76 | -3 | -13 |
| 95 | Kyrgyzstan | 1252.65 | 0 | 0 |
| 96 | Estonia | 1240.36 | 0 | -6 |
| 97 | Jordan | 1229.10 | 0 | -9 |
| 98 | Vietnam | 1227.02 | 1 | 0 |
| 99 | Palestine | 1223.95 | 1 | 0 |
| 100 | Haiti | 1222.66 | 3 | 4 |
| 101 | India | 1218.92 | 2 | 0 |
| 102 | Mauritania | 1213.17 | -1 | -9 |
| 102 | Faroe Islands | 1212.59 | -5 | -25 |
| 104 | Niger | 1209.12 | 5 | 4 |
| 105 | Libya | 1206.62 | 0 | -10 |
| 106 | Armenia | 1206.04 | -5 | -16 |
| 107 | Madagascar | 1202.88 | 0 | -6 |
| 108 | Kenya | 1202.13 | -2 | -8 |
| 109 | Azerbaijan | 1200.59 | -1 | -5 |
| 110 | Zimbabwe | 1189.96 | 3 | 15 |
| 111 | Bahrain | 1187.71 | 0 | 0 |
| 112 | Central African Republic | 1184.32 | 0 | 4 |
| 113 | Namibia | 1180.62 | -3 | -10 |
| 114 | Thailand | 1173.85 | 1 | 5 |
| 115 | Kazakhstan | 1172.32 | 2 | 13 |
| 115 | Sierra Leone | 1172.13 | -1 | 0 |
| 117 | Mozambique | 1166.47 | -1 | -1 |
| 118 | Guinea-Bissau | 1157.85 | 0 | 0 |
| 119 | New Zealand | 1157.36 | 0 | 0 |
| 120 | Tajikistan | 1155.30 | 0 | 0 |
| 121 | Korea DPR | 1152.27 | 0 | 0 |
| 122 | Angola | 1142.43 | 3 | 11 |
| 123 | Antigua and Barbuda | 1136.30 | 3 | 10 |
| 124 | Philippines | 1134.64 | -1 | 0 |
| 125 | Chinese Taipei | 1128.46 | -1 | -6 |
| 126 | Togo | 1126.50 | -4 | -9 |
| 127 | Nicaragua | 1126.20 | 1 | 7 |
| 128 | Kosovo | 1123.72 | 2 | 11 |
| 129 | Malawi | 1122.03 | 0 | 7 |
| 130 | Sudan | 1106.24 | -3 | -14 |
| 131 | Tanzania | 1104.80 | 6 | 18 |
| 132 | Lithuania | 1103.34 | 0 | -8 |
| 133 | Latvia | 1100.70 | -2 | -11 |
| 134 | Andorra | 1098.98 | -2 | -12 |
| 135 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 1096.26 | -1 | -9 |
| 136 | Burundi | 1089.26 | 2 | 4 |
| 136 | Turkmenistan | 1088.93 | 0 | 0 |
| 138 | Rwanda | 1087.67 | -3 | -6 |
| 139 | Solomon Islands | 1082.78 | 4 | 10 |
| 140 | Myanmar | 1080.03 | -2 | -5 |
| 141 | Hong Kong | 1078.49 | -1 | 0 |
| 142 | Lesotho | 1074.58 | 4 | 6 |
| 143 | Equatorial Guinea | 1074.12 | 5 | 11 |
| 143 | Swatini | 1073.60 | -3 | -4 |
| 145 | Yemen | 1072.76 | -2 | 0 |
| 146 | Comoros | 1070.70 | -4 | -5 |
| 147 | Guatemala | 1067.99 | 2 | 7 |
| 148 | Botswana | 1060.35 | -3 | -11 |
| 149 | Afghanistan | 1056.86 | -2 | -9 |
| 150 | Ethiopia | 1048.88 | 1 | 0 |
| 151 | Maldives | 1046.21 | 1 | 0 |
| 152 | Suriname | 1045.50 | 1 | 8 |
| 153 | Liberia | 1043.74 | -3 | -7 |
| 154 | Dominican Republic | 1027.71 | 0 | -8 |
| 155 | New Caledonia | 1025.69 | -1 | -10 |
| 156 | Mauritius | 1021.86 | 0 | 0 |
| 157 | Tahiti | 1020.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 158 | Kuwait | 1017.58 | 0 | 0 |
| 159 | Indonesia | 1008.45 | 0 | 5 |
| 160 | Nepal | 1000.90 | 1 | 0 |
| 161 | Singapore | 997.92 | 4 | 7 |
| 162 | Barbados | 996.59 | 0 | -1 |
| 163 | Gambia | 993.66 | 3 | 8 |
| 163 | Belize | 993.51 | -3 | -8 |
| 165 | Fiji | 992.07 | 4 | 11 |
| 166 | Vanuatu | 991.44 | -3 | -5 |
| 167 | South Sudan | 989.48 | -3 | -5 |
| 168 | Malaysia | 986.21 | -1 | 1 |
| 169 | Papua New Guinea | 984.00 | -1 | 0 |
| 170 | St. Lucia | 975.00 | 1 | -1 |
| 171 | Grenada | 972.61 | 2 | 5 |
| 172 | Moldova | 972.44 | -2 | -7 |
| 173 | Cambodia | 967.23 | -1 | -3 |
| 174 | Cuba | 960.91 | 0 | -2 |
| 175 | Guyana | 959.02 | 2 | 8 |
| 175 | Bermuda | 958.62 | 1 | 7 |
| 177 | Chad | 956.00 | -2 | 0 |
| 178 | Dominica | 954.30 | 0 | 4 |
| 178 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 953.70 | 2 | 8 |
| 180 | Malta | 943.35 | 2 | 17 |
| 181 | Puerto Rico | 940.36 | -2 | -8 |
| 182 | Liechtenstein | 932.01 | -1 | -5 |
| 183 | Macau | 924.61 | 0 | 0 |
| 184 | Laos | 922.56 | 0 | 0 |
| 185 | Sao Tomé e Príncipe | 920.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 186 | Bhutan | 917.03 | 0 | 0 |
| 187 | Mongolia | 915.24 | 1 | 0 |
| 188 | Bangladesh | 909.31 | 4 | 2 |
| 188 | Aruba | 909.07 | -1 | -7 |
| 190 | American Samoa | 908.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 190 | Cook Islands | 908.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 190 | Seychelles | 907.67 | -1 | -3 |
| 193 | Guam | 907.22 | -1 | 0 |
| 194 | Brunei Darussalam | 902.72 | 1 | 0 |
| 195 | Gibraltar | 900.02 | -1 | -5 |
| 195 | Timor-Leste | 899.72 | 1 | 0 |
| 197 | Samoa | 896.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 197 | Djibouti | 896.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 199 | Montserrat | 894.66 | 1 | 8 |
| 200 | US Virgin Islands | 888.15 | 2 | 7 |
| 200 | Pakistan | 887.52 | -1 | 0 |
| 202 | Sri Lanka | 885.78 | -1 | 0 |
| 203 | Tonga | 868.00 | 1 | 0 |
| 203 | Eritrea | 868.00 | 1 | 0 |
| 203 | Somalia | 868.00 | 1 | 0 |
| 206 | Cayman Islands | 867.12 | -3 | -7 |
| 206 | British Virgin Islands | 866.70 | 1 | 0 |
| 208 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 861.67 | 0 | -2 |
| 209 | Anguilla | 856.55 | -1 | -7 |
| 210 | Bahamas | 854.65 | 0 | -3 |
| 211 | San Marino | 847.52 | 0 | -6 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Assuming that the FIFA preliminary draw is still in July, will you calculate the odds for UEFA teams to finish in pot one? Does Italy have any chance to catch Netherlands and/or Sweden (I'm pretty sure Germany is out of our reach). Thank you
ReplyDeleteForza,
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime it is clear that the draw for UEFA qualifying for Qatar will definitely not be this July, but probably July 2020 after EURO 2020 has been played.
So it's quite academic, but here goes:
Probability (%) to be seeded in pot 1 (based on June 2019 ranking), without the sure top 8: England, Belgium, France, Croatia, Portugal, Switzerland, Spain and Denmark.
In case of pots of 10 teams:
Germany 92,44
Sweden 56,04
Netherlands 27,51
Italy 22,83
Wales 3,07
Poland 0,19
In case of pots of 11 teams:
Germany 97,55
Sweden 87,17
Netherlands 53,91
Italy 48,64
Wales 8,89
Poland 4,39
Do you have any fixed information the draw will be postponed. I think it's unlikely to see in July 2019 but it should happen within 2019. I think they have a big draw of several confederations within 2019.
DeleteI would love to see a postponed draw for selfish reasons (Italy would have more chances to make it to the top pot) and for logical reasons (a draw almost two years before the qualifiers start in Europe makes zero sense), but is there any indication that FIFA is thinking about it? I haven't seen anything on that on newspapers, TV, or the web.
DeleteWell, as far as fixed information goes, there is the Feasibility study on the increase of the number of teams from 32 to 48 in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 where is stated that "whilst the FIMC currently stipulates that the preliminary draw shall be staged in July 2019, the timing is currently under review, with both the structure and timing of the draw expected to change".
ReplyDeleteAlso it states:
In terms of timing, each confederation would ideally need clarity about format and slot allocation for the final tournament and about -in the event of a co-hosted tournament- confirmation as to whether some or all co-hosts would automatically qualify, in advance of the following dates:
o AFC – the June 2019 window (round 1) or otherwise potentially the September 2019 window (round 2);
o CAF – the September 2019 window;
o CONMEBOL – the March 2020 window;
o CONCACAF and OFC – the September 2020 window;
o UEFA – the March 2021 window.
Furthermore a FIFA-spokesman has confirmed that "the draw for European World Cup qualifying is done in 2020".
Ed,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your update. We have to wait on further developments. There must be a final decision about possible expansion on June 5th. What do you think about pot allocation in Europe? Do you see any chance to use something like Nations league ranking? Uefa stated in 2014 they will use same principles for 2022 World Cup qualification as for Euro 2020.
They have to make adjustments acc. to allocation of qualifying places. I believe Fifa won't accept any other than fifa world rankings for seeding (same procedure they did the last 3 World cups). Uefa must accept world rankings instead of Uefa coefficient starting 2010 qualifiers.
I see a problem in the group pairings. Teams like Bosnia or Ukraine will play in nations league A in 2020. They have no chance to reach a Fifa world rankings based Pot 1 in the preliminary draw. If i.e. Ukraine and France reach the 2021 Nations league finals and they go to the same 2022 world cup qualication group. It is not possible to handle two teams a bye (i.e. 11 groups of 5 in total).
Only solution would be to draw such teams to the same groups in 2020 nations league. Otherwise you have to find additional dates in the match calendar or you have to postpone nations league finals after completing qualification. Both options seem very unlikely. What do you think? International match calendar is very tight.
Greetings from Germany...
Indeed, the IMC is very tight. And FIFA will use the FIFA ranking (and FIFA ranking only) for seeding their own (qualifying) tournament.
ReplyDeleteThis is the schedule in 2020 and 2021 for UEFA teams:
2020:
Jan draw UNL 2020/21
Mar play-offs EURO 2020 Q
Jun EURO 2020
Sep UNL 2020 groups MD1+2
Oct UNL 2020 groups MD3+4
Nov UNL 2020 groups MD5+6
2021:
Mar WCQ MD1+2
Jun WCQ MD3+4 + UNL 2020/21 finals
Sep WCQ MD5+6
Oct WCQ MD7+8
Nov WCQ MD9+10
The draw for UNL 2020/21 is already very early in 2020. I suppose the draw for the European qualifying for WC Qatar 2022 will be after the EURO 2020 in July, but it could also be scheduled in December 2020, with the advantage that the participants for the UNL 2021 finals are known then. Maybe the draw can be conducted in a way that these 4 teams could be placed in different groups of 5. This would point to a qualifying structure of 5 groups of 5 teams plus 5 groups of 6 teams or 11 groups of 5 teams.
Almost all options you mention seem to me not acceptable: the draw for UNL is too early in 2020 to influence that draw and additional dates outside the IMC-windows will not happen by veto of the clubs. Postponement of the UNL finals to March 2022 could maybe be the one-off solution that could work as in March 2022 there seem to be a free window, although maybe that would be reserved for the first two MD's of UNL 2022/23 because the window of November 2022 is out of commission. And UEFA will not be amused anyway.
Difficult, to say the least :)
This is just my idea, of course, but I think many problems could be solved by stretching the next UEFA Nations League and pushing its finals to 2022:
ReplyDeleteSept 2020: UEFA WC qualifying 1+2
Oct 2020: UEFA NL games 1+2
Nov 2020: UEFA WC qualifying 3+4
Mar 2021: UEFA WC qualifying 5+6
Jun 2021: UEFA NL games 3+4
Sept 2021: UEFA WC qualifying 7+8
Oct 2021: UEFA NL 5+6
Nov 2021: UEFA WC qualifying 9+10
Mar 2022: UEFA WC qualifying play-offs
Jun 2022: UEFA NL finals
This calendar has two advantages:
*Teams can be placed in groups of six in WC qualifying regardless of status in the NL.
*The NL can be integrated in the UEFA WC qualifying process.
I see one big disadvantage: too many competitions.
ReplyDeleteEd,
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of putting the preliminary back to November / December 2020.
Advantages: We know the Final four participants of UNL 2021 and can use the world rankings which is valid before starting of qualification. To have the draw a year earlier is crazy. A lot of changes in the rankings will happen due to European qualifiers, Finals and UNL 2020.
The only option for UNL 2022:
MD 1-4 in June 2022 (acc. to match calendar we will have 4 matchdays in early June)
MD 5-6 in September
2023 will be used for Euro 2024 qualifiers
March 2022 will be used for World Cup playoffs. No idea in which format (how many spots, only runners up of group play or integration of UNL) but Uefa will have playoffs on these MD. Definitely.
I asked last time of possibility of using different criteria to Fifa world rankings. The reason for that was a report in a German newspaper shortly after Germanys relegation to league B last November. They reported that there is no possibility to reach pot 1 due to same principles for seeding are applied. An Uefa spokesman told them the procedure is not defined so far. I agree to your opinion. Fifa won't accept anything else than Fifa world rankings.
@Forza: I don't believe they follow your suggestion. The will not mix it up.
@Forza: I don't believe they follow your suggestion.
ReplyDeleteYou never know. For years I posted on several blogs that the geographical system used by FIFA for final draws made no sense as it resulted in very unbalanced groups, and that they should make pots based on strength with a computer keeping track of geographical redundancies. Finally they started using that system and other sport organizations have followed suit (FIBA, for example). I'm not saying FIFA did it because of my posts, but you never know who's reading them.
Hi Ed
ReplyDeletePls, what are the maximum points for Iraq on June, they will be played vs Tunisia and Lybia.
I only see a Tunisia-Iraq friendly scheduled on June 7th for now. Don't know if it's going to be included. If it is, then Iraq could gain 6,6 points from that match with a win and climb to 1325 points in the June ranking.
DeleteA question about friendlies: theoretically, basing on the regulations, within the Fifa dates the first two days are only reserved to call-up and traveling of the players. The first date allowed for matches is the third day in the dates. E.g. in september 2018 (Fifa dates 3-11 september) the first date allowed for matches was on 5 september. But there are often friendlies scheduled on the first two days (three friendlies in march were on the first two days). If I understand well, these matches too had i=30 as constant despite they are theoretically out of the dates. Am I right?
ReplyDeleteJos, I don't know which regulations you mean. Haven't heard of such 'reservation time'. Only thing I know is that an International Match window spans from a Monday (for this March window the 18th) until and including next week's Tuesday (26th). All friendlies played within this period are calculated with an I-factor of 10, so also f.i. Solomon Islands-Vanuatu on Monday March 18th. Previous rankings show clearly enough the use of I=10 in these cases.
ReplyDeleteObviously I made a mistake writing i=30 instead of i=10. Thanks for the answer. The rule is contained in the "regulations on the status and transfers of players", annexe 1, art.4 (https://resources.fifa.com/mm/document/affederation/administration/02/70/95/52/regulationsonthestatusandtransferofplayersjune2016_e_neutral.pdf):
ReplyDelete"An international window is defined as a period of nine days starting on a Monday morning and ending on Tuesday night the following week, which is reserved for representative teams’ activities. During any international window a maximum of two matches may be played by each representative team, irrespective of whether these matches are qualifying matches for an international tournament or friendlies. The pertinent matches can be scheduled any day as from Wednesday during the international window, provided that a minimum of two full calendar days are left between two matches (e.g. Thursday/Sunday or Saturday/Tuesday)".
In fact, if we look at the Fifa windows of the past months, there is only a small number of friendlies scheduled in the first two days. But anyway it seems Fifa doesn't care about it, despite clubs are not obliged to release players the day before a match scheduled in the first day of the window. In such case the NT must to give up an international player or the player should travel the same day of the match.
I mean, Fifa doesn't care about it concerning its own ranking..
DeleteI'm having trouble coming up with the calculation ranking points for Syria's last three games against Iraq, Jordan and United Arab Emirates. I came up with 1281.600951 against Iraq, 1233.325232 against Jordan and 1286.883710 against UAE for the final ranking points. I couldn't come up with the final ranking points of 1286.89. I know the begining ranking points before the three games was 1286.377814. Could you show me the calculations.
DeleteThanks.
IRQ-SYR 1309,651 1286,385; We SYR 0,478; 1:0; 4,777 pts exchanged; SYR 1281,608
DeleteJOR-SYR 1237,907 1281,608; We SYR 0,542; 0:1; 4,582 pts exchanged; SYR 1286,189
UAE-SYR 1359,737 1286,189; We SYR 0,430; 0:0; 0,000 pts exchanged; SYR 1286,189 (excluded)
Hi Ed. When trying to calculate the rankings, I found that FIFA doesn't include the match between Azerbaijan and Lithuania, despite it was Euro qualifier match. Also I can't match FIFA calculation of Barbados' point. It'll be better if FIFA lists all the matches like before, or at least display the decimal points.
ReplyDeleteAzerbaijan-Lithuania was a friendly match (they are also in different groups in the EQ). Concerning Barbados, I know the match played on 4th march against Grenada in the Winward Island Tournament (originally ended 0-0) was awarded 3-0 to Barbados since Grenada used an ineligible player.
DeleteHi Fauzan, Azerbaijan - Lithuania on March 25th was just a friendly, so not a big deal that FIFA didn't include the match.
ReplyDeleteIf compared my calculations with the published ranking and found the following adjustments to my calculations had to be made to match the ranking:
FIFA excluded and I included:
2019-02-21 KAZ-MDA friendly 1:0
2019-03-03 BOL-NCA friendly 2:2
2019-03-25 AZE-LTU friendly 0:0
2019-03-26 UAE-SYR friendly 0:0
FIFA included and I excluded:
2019-03-25 KUW-NEP friendly 1:0
2019-03-26 GHA-MTN friendly 3:1
2019-03-26 NCA-GUA friendly 0:1
With these adjustments everything matches except indeed Barbados. I come to 996,57 points for them while FIFA presents 996 points. I've tried two different adjustments:
- don't use 2019-03-04 BRB-GRN awarded 3:0 but use original 0:0
- include 2018-09-30 VIN-BRB friendly 1:1
Both didn't show any improvement, instead things got worse.
I will have to study some more on this one :)
I also have exactly 996,57 and all other countries matching correctly. So I think it is just a famous FIFA mistake.
DeleteI got Barbados to be 996.40? Starting with 997.99, lost 2.75 for loss to St Vincent, gained 2.37 for win v Grenada, gained 2.37 for win v St Lucia, gained 2.26 for win v Dominica then finally lost 5.84 for loss to Nicaragua.
DeleteI got everyone to match perfectly bar Suriname who Fifa says are 1045 points but I have them as 1046 (1045.50). I did think it could just be that famous rounding quirk of Fifa's but Togo, Italy and Cote d'Ivoire are all .50s for me too and they are all rounded up by Fifa so I am stumped with that one!
Hi Chappers,
ReplyDeletealright, let's compare notes :)
I calculate Suriname as 1045,4985, so that is rounded to 1045, in FIFA's world and my Excel world.
TOG 1126,5036
ITA 1549,5019
CIV 1364,5071
are indeed all rounded up.
Then Barbados: I have a starting value of 998,171 and same points exchanges afterwards, so the different starting value explains the 0,17 difference we find. So, with your permission, we have to dig deeper.
Here are all BRB-matches since June 2018 that counted for the rankings:
2018-11-18 VIR CNLq I=15 3:0 992,166 6,005 998,171
2018-10-13 SLV CNLq I=15 0:3 995,399 -3,234 992,166
2018-09-06 GUY CNLq I=15 0:3 (awd, was 2:2) 1003,871 -8,471 995,399
2018-08-29 CUB Fr I=5 0:2 1006,705 -2,835 1003,871
2018-08-26 CUB Fr I=5 0:0 1007,043 -0,338 1006,705
2018-08-20 JAM Fr I=5 2:2 1005,442 1,601 1007,043
2018-08-04 BLZ Fr I=5 0:1 1008,000 -2,558 1005,442
I suspect the first awarded match against Guyana is the culprit. Please, can you confirm that by showing your numbers for that match ?
Ed, is it possible that FIFA includes Barbados' match which they didn't include before in the April ranking? According to ESPN website, Barbados played against St. Vincent and the Grenadines on 01-10-2018. When I include the match in ranking calculation, Barbados' point turned out to be 996.39 (rounded to 996) and it matches FIFA calculation.
ReplyDeleteFound it. The friendly 2018-09-30 VIN-BRB 1:1 with a -0,195 points exchange for Barbados indeed needed to be included. I calculated the consequences wrong yesterday.
ReplyDeleteIndeed Fauzan, we came to the solution at the same time. With combined forces the puzzle is solved. Thanks all !
ReplyDeleteHi Ed, did you noticed that the number of matches played that has been provided by FIFA is 150? And can you compare this with yours?
ReplyDeleteSource: https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/news/uruguay-england-edge-forward-as-podium-unchanged
Well spotted, mono !
ReplyDeleteI have now 149 matches counting for the April ranking. So there is one more match that needs to be included but doesn't change the rounded points-totals of the involved teams. Of course, it turns out there is more than one possibility :)
It will be one of 2019-02-25 CUB-BER (friendly 2:2; closed door match) or 2019-03-10 MOZ-SWZ (friendly 1:1). The first match has a points exchange of only 0,049, the second match of 0,422.
I will mark both matches and keep in mind one of them will be included. For now I will leave both matches excluded in my system.
Talking about a nuisance. Well done FIFA, with your new Live scores section in your app that covers indeed all international football, club and NT, tournaments and friendlies. Not really !
Thanks Ed, I really do agree with this one!
DeleteHi Ed, Is it confirmed that AFC world cup 2022 qualifications draw will be in 17th of July, 2019?
ReplyDeleteHi Tarek, in this Pakistani newspaper article is announced that the first two rounds of Asian qualifying for Qatar 2022 are identical to those for Russia 2018: a first round of 6 double legged play-offs between the 12 lowest ranked Asian teams and a second round with 8 groups of 5, consisting of the remaining 34 Asian teams plus the 6 first round winners. Both rounds double as qualifying rounds for the Asian Cup 2023.
ReplyDeleteThe draw for the first round is on April 17th in Kuala Lumpur and the involved teams are (seeded) Malaysia, Cambodia, Macau, Laos, Bhutan and Mongolia and (unseeded) Bangladesh, Guam, Brunei Darussalam, Timor-Leste, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
It is uncertain if Pakistan will participate. Timor-Leste can't qualify for the Asian Cup 2023, but can participate in World Cup qualifying.
Both Qatar (as host of the WC 2022) and China PR or Korea Republic (possible hosts for the AFC Nations Cup 2023) will enter the second qualifying round.
Thanks Ed. What about AFC draw date for the 2nd round consisted of 40 Nations, Is it on 17th of July, 2019?
ReplyDeleteHi Tarek, I haven't read anything about the exact date in July. But we know this: the AFC second qualifying round will start in September. Also the CAF first qualifying round is scheduled to begin in that month. So it seems very likely that if FIFA wants to give this draw any importance (read: make something of an official show of it) the draw for these two qualifying rounds will be combined.
ReplyDeleteBecause of that I would guess it will be staged at the end of the month to be able to take the results of the African Nations Cup 2019 into account. That tournament finishes July 19th, the July ranking is scheduled to be published on July 18th.
Somewhere in the last July weekend seems a fine opportunity, don't you think ?
Yes, I think so.
ReplyDeleteA quick note: just saw FIFA has adapted the publishing date of the July ranking from July 18th to July 25th to accommodate the complete CAF Nations Cup 2019.
ReplyDeleteIt is more sense now. Thanks Ed for info.
DeleteAny chance for Uzbakistan to become the 8th in Asia before July? how many points that they can get if they play against Sweden friendly ?
ReplyDeleteИюль месяце шанс нет!!! Можеть быть октябре, ноябре. С интернационалного товарищеского матча можно набрать максимум 9,68 очка (для узбекистана 8,53 )
DeleteJuly is no chance !!! May be October, November. From the international friendly match you can score a maximum of 9.68 points (for Uzbekistan, 8.53)