CAF Nations Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the African Cup of Nations 2019, played from June 21st to July 19th in Egypt. The format is expanded to 24 teams, playing in 6 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the first knock-out round, together with the four best group numbers 3. The placing of the qualified teams in the round of 16 follows the same system as the EURO 2016 and AFC Nations Cup 2019 tournaments.

CAF decided to use the April FIFA ranking to seed the continental showpiece, contrary to the previous CAF-tournaments.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results, ordered by average group position:

group A          1st         2nd          3rd          4th Egypt 45,14 25,63 17,35 11,88 Congo DR 19,68 26,60 29,92 23,80 Zimbabwe 17,02 24,94 28,52 29,52 Uganda 18,16 22,83 24,21 34,80 group B          1st         2nd          3rd          4th Nigeria 54,02 27,42 13,19 5,37 Guinea 21,12 27,79 26,48 24,61 Burundi 12,31 23,01 32,59 32,09 Madagascar 12,55 21,78 27,74 37,93 group C          1st         2nd          3rd          4th Senegal 61,68 22,78 10,63 4,91 Algeria 20,59 36,92 25,97 16,52 Kenya 9,73 20,47 35,38 34,42 Tanzania 8,00 19,83 28,02 44,15 group D          1st         2nd          3rd          4th Morocco 46,62 27,15 16,19 10,04 Cote d'Ivoire 24,29 28,92 28,89 17,90 South Africa 22,26 27,75 27,22 22,77 Namibia 6,83 16,18 27,70 49,29 group E          1st         2nd          3rd          4th Tunisia 44,54 28,82 17,59 9,05 Mali 29,13 28,20 23,86 18,81 Mauritania 14,09 21,45 27,52 36,94 Angola 12,24 21,53 31,03 35,20 group F          1st         2nd          3rd          4th Ghana 38,31 33,54 19,06 9,09 Cameroon 40,60 29,00 18,86 11,54 Benin 12,94 21,92 36,68 28,46 Guinea-Bissau 8,15 15,54 25,40 50,91

Group D is a strong group. As always in Africa lots of groups where teams have very even probabilities to advance. Senegal's group C seems like a lucky draw. In group A a hard fight for second place after Egypt can be anticipated.

Round of 16

Senegal	92,76
Nigeria	92,53
Tunisia	87,75
Morocco	86,10
Ghana	85,22
Egypt	83,79
Cameroon	83,16
Mali	76,17
Cote d'Ivoire	74,50
Algeria	73,21
South Africa	70,41
Guinea	68,46
Congo DR	67,83
Uganda	59,04
Zimbabwe	58,73
Benin	57,78
Mauritania	53,10
Burundi	52,78
Kenya	51,43
Madagascar	51,31
Angola	50,45
Tanzania	46,10
Guinea-Bissau	40,71
Namibia	36,68

Quarter finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the round of 16)

Senegal	71,32		[76,89]
Nigeria	66,05		[71,38]
Morocco	62,08		[72,10]
Egypt	61,04		[72,85]
Ghana	53,14		[62,36]
Cameroon	50,60		[60,85]
Tunisia	46,94		[53,49]
Cote d'Ivoire	43,56		[58,47]
South Africa	37,99		[53,96]
Congo DR	37,80		[55,73]
Uganda	34,50		[58,43]
Algeria	33,11		[45,23]
Zimbabwe	28,61		[48,71]
Mali	27,39		[35,96]
Guinea	26,61		[38,87]
Benin	20,40		[35,31]
Burundi	15,48		[29,33]
Kenya	14,11		[27,44]
Madagascar	13,62		[26,54]
Tanzania	12,03		[26,10]
Mauritania	11,91		[22,43]
Angola	11,18		[22,16]
Namibia	10,52		[28,68]
Guinea-Bissau	10,01		[24,59]

Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

Senegal	49,55		[69,48]
Nigeria	45,23		[68,48]
Morocco	39,49		[63,61]
Egypt	32,72		[53,60]
Ghana	28,31		[53,27]
Cameroon	25,10		[49,60]
Tunisia	23,72		[50,53]
Cote d'Ivoire	22,43		[51,49]
South Africa	18,14		[47,75]
Uganda	17,02		[49,33]
Congo DR	16,95		[44,84]
Algeria	12,90		[38,96]
Zimbabwe	11,46		[40,06]
Guinea	10,76		[40,44]
Mali	10,75		[39,25]
Benin	6,64		[32,55]
Burundi	5,31		[34,30]
Madagascar	4,76		[34,95]
Kenya	4,37		[30,97]
Tanzania	3,53		[29,34]
Mauritania	2,87		[24,10]
Angola	2,76		[24,69]
Namibia	2,74		[26,05]
Guinea-Bissau	2,49		[24,88]

Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Senegal	35,30		[71,24]
Morocco	26,06		[65,99]
Nigeria	25,11		[55,52]
Egypt	16,38		[50,06]
Tunisia	13,24		[55,82]
Ghana	12,63		[44,61]
Cote d'Ivoire	11,39		[50,78]
Cameroon	10,94		[43,59]
South Africa	8,32		[45,87]
Uganda	7,49		[44,01]
Congo DR	6,63		[39,12]
Algeria	5,26		[40,78]
Mali	4,34		[40,37]
Zimbabwe	3,57		[31,15]
Guinea	3,27		[30,39]
Benin	1,88		[28,31]
Burundi	1,51		[28,44]
Kenya	1,40		[32,04]
Madagascar	1,35		[28,36]
Tanzania	0,96		[27,20]
Namibia	0,88		[32,12]
Mauritania	0,80		[27,87]
Angola	0,66		[23,91]
Guinea-Bissau	0,63		[25,30]

Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Senegal	22,66		[64,19]
Morocco	15,20		[58,33]
Nigeria	14,30		[56,95]
Egypt	8,20		[50,06]
Tunisia	6,26		[47,28]
Ghana	5,92		[46,87]
Cote d'Ivoire	5,29		[46,44]
Cameroon	4,62		[42,23]
Uganda	3,23		[43,12]
South Africa	2,94		[35,34]
Congo DR	2,30		[34,69]
Algeria	2,10		[39,92]
Mali	1,43		[32,95]
Zimbabwe	1,30		[36,41]
Guinea	1,11		[33,94]
Benin	0,66		[35,11]
Burundi	0,55		[36,42]
Madagascar	0,46		[34,07]
Kenya	0,37		[26,43]
Namibia	0,29		[32,95]
Tanzania	0,25		[26,04]
Guinea-Bissau	0,22		[34,92]
Mauritania	0,20		[25,00]
Angola	0,14		[21,21]

The FIFA-ranking of July shall probably be used to seed the draw for the first round of CAF qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar, to be played in September. FIFA has decided to postpone the publication of their July ranking with one week to July 25th to accommodate the complete AFCON 2019.

Last time around the first qualification round consisted of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked African teams.

The average position amongst African teams in the July 2019 FIFA-ranking:

Senegal	1,495
Tunisia	2,543
Nigeria	4,234
Morocco	4,687
Ghana	5,654
Congo DR	6,573
Cameroon	7,266
Egypt	7,774
Burkina Faso	8,998
Cote d'Ivoire	9,999
Mali	10,741
Algeria	12,172
Guinea	12,603
South Africa	12,767
Cape Verde Islands	14,508
Uganda	15,725
Zambia	16,337
Gabon	18,293
Benin	19,077
Congo	19,508
Niger	22,714
Mauritania	23,745
Libya	23,801
Zimbabwe	24,476
Kenya	24,851
Madagascar	25,025
---- seeded in 1st round
Central African Republic	26,617
Namibia	27,842
Sierra Leone	28,587
Mozambique	29,918
Guinea-Bissau	30,199
Angola	30,859
Togo	33,296
Malawi	34,236
Tanzania	34,809
Sudan	35,955
Burundi	36,205
Rwanda	37,534
Lesotho	39,202
Equatorial Guinea	40,202
---- unseeded in 1st round
Eswatini	40,300
Comoros	41,754
Botswana	42,922
Ethiopia	44,000
Liberia	45,000
Mauritius	46,000
Gambia	47,000
South Sudan	48,000
Chad	49,000
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	50,000
Seychelles	51,000
Djibouti	52,000
Eritrea	53,000
Somalia	54,000

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.