CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019, played from June 15th to July 7th in the United States with first round group B and C matches played in San José Costa Rica and Kingston Jamaica. The format is expanded to 16 teams, playing in the classic format of 4 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the quarter finals.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results, ordered by average group position:

group A          1st         2nd          3rd          4th Mexico 62,86 23,77 10,04 3,33 Canada 20,17 35,03 28,12 16,68 Martinique 11,62 25,50 33,65 29,23 Cuba 5,35 15,70 28,19 50,76 group B          1st         2nd          3rd          4th Costa Rica 67,68 24,19 6,18 1,95 Haiti 24,17 42,68 22,10 11,05 Nicaragua 4,17 17,47 36,82 41,54 Bermuda 3,98 15,66 34,90 45,46 group C          1st         2nd          3rd          4th Jamaica 32,79 29,16 23,85 14,20 Honduras 32,73 29,23 23,63 14,41 El Salvador 26,37 27,26 26,80 19,57 Curacao 8,11 14,35 25,72 51,82 group D          1st         2nd          3rd          4th USA 69,62 24,48 5,07 0,83 Panama 23,83 43,38 24,07 8,72 Trinidad and Tobago 5,61 24,47 46,00 23,92 Guyana 0,94 7,67 24,86 66,53

Group C is a true group of death, with some opportunities for Curacao. The other top-seeds should have an easy ride to the knock-out phase.

Quarter finals

USA 94,10 Costa Rica 91,87 Mexico 86,63 Panama 67,21 Haiti 66,85 Honduras 61,96 Jamaica 61,95 Canada 55,20 El Salvador 53,63 Martinique 37,12 Trinidad and Tobago 30,08 Curacao 22,46 Nicaragua 21,64 Cuba 21,05 Bermuda 19,64 Guyana 8,61

Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

USA	72,57		[77,12]
Mexico	69,19		[79,87]
Costa Rica	56,15		[61,12]
Panama	51,23		[76,22]
Canada	25,72		[46,59]
Haiti	23,92		[35,78]
Honduras	23,00		[37,12]
Jamaica	21,06		[34,00]
El Salvador	17,84		[33,26]
Martinique	13,59		[36,61]
Trinidad and Tobago	9,31		[30,95]
Cuba	5,38		[25,56]
Nicaragua	3,51		[16,22]
Curacao	3,49		[15,54]
Bermuda	2,54		[12,93]
Guyana	1,50		[17,42]

Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Mexico	52,07		[75,26]
USA	38,37		[52,87]
Costa Rica	27,61		[49,17]
Panama	25,16		[49,11]
Honduras	11,80		[51,30]
Jamaica	10,32		[49,00]
El Salvador	9,21		[51,63]
Canada	8,21		[31,92]
Haiti	6,76		[28,26]
Trinidad and Tobago	3,48		[37,38]
Martinique	3,38		[24,87]
Curacao	1,25		[35,82]
Cuba	0,88		[16,36]
Nicaragua	0,71		[20,23]
Guyana	0,41		[27,33]
Bermuda	0,38		[14,96]

Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Mexico	31,10		[59,73]
USA	18,37		[47,88]
Panama	13,86		[55,09]
Costa Rica	12,42		[44,98]
Honduras	5,23		[44,32]
Jamaica	4,78		[46,32]
El Salvador	4,29		[46,58]
Canada	3,19		[38,86]
Haiti	2,76		[40,83]
Trinidad and Tobago	1,45		[41,67]
Martinique	1,44		[42,60]
Curacao	0,48		[38,40]
Cuba	0,23		[26,14]
Nicaragua	0,21		[29,58]
Guyana	0,15		[36,59]
Bermuda	0,04		[10,53]

The average position amongst CONCACAF-teams in the July 2019 FIFA-ranking:

Mexico	1,339
USA	1,793
Costa Rica	3,005
Jamaica	4,622
Honduras	5,213
El Salvador	6,211
Panama	6,459
Canada	8,131
Curacao	8,669
Trinidad and Tobago	10,014
Haiti	10,550
Antigua and Barbuda	12,127
Nicaragua	13,236
St. Kitts and Nevis	13,635
Guatemala	15,003
Suriname	16,014
Dominican Republic	17,040
Barbados	18,230
Belize	19,250
St. Lucia	20,607
Grenada	21,830
Guyana	23,125
Bermuda	23,140
Dominica	23,514
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	24,514
Cuba	24,665
Puerto Rico	26,067
Aruba	28,000
Montserrat	29,000
US Virgin Islands	30,000
Cayman Islands	31,000
British Virgin Islands	32,000
Turks and Caicos Islands	33,000
Anguilla	34,000
Bahamas	35,000

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