Copa America 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

On January 24th was the draw for the Copa America 2019, played from June 14th to July 7th in Brazil. This is the last time in the somewhat awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 and the two best numbers 3 qualify for the quarter finals.
Next year in 2020 already the Copa America will be expanded to 16 teams and from then be held in the same 4-year cycle as the EURO.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results, ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Brazil	78,92	16,52	3,82	0,74
Peru	13,90	39,08	28,65	18,37
Venezuela	5,46	28,42	36,75	29,37
Bolivia	1,72	15,98	30,78	51,52
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Colombia	40,22	29,23	19,28	11,27
Argentina	32,47	28,87	22,34	16,32
Qatar	15,71	22,79	29,73	31,77
Paraguay	11,60	19,11	28,65	40,64
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Uruguay	39,68	27,74	19,62	12,96
Chile	23,84	26,11	26,05	24,00
Japan	18,85	23,16	26,77	31,22
Ecuador	17,63	22,99	27,56	31,82

Quarter finals

Brazil 98,67 Colombia 84,51 Uruguay 82,61 Argentina 78,14 Peru 69,20 Chile 68,78 Japan 60,91 Ecuador 60,63 Qatar 58,94 Venezuela 54,17 Paraguay 50,46 Bolivia 32,98

Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

Brazil	88,58		[89,77]
Peru	51,24		[74,05]
Colombia	47,75		[56,50]
Uruguay	45,76		[55,39]
Argentina	39,75		[50,87]
Chile	28,82		[41,90]
Japan	21,21		[34,82]
Ecuador	19,34		[31,90]
Venezuela	19,22		[35,48]
Qatar	18,54		[31,46]
Paraguay	12,62		[25,01]
Bolivia	7,17		[21,74]

Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Brazil	69,69		[78,67]
Uruguay	27,40		[59,88]
Colombia	24,85		[52,04]
Peru	22,45		[43,81]
Argentina	17,39		[43,75]
Chile	12,14		[42,12]
Japan	7,31		[34,46]
Ecuador	6,00		[31,02]
Qatar	4,92		[26,54]
Venezuela	4,03		[20,97]
Paraguay	2,82		[22,35]
Bolivia	1,00		[13,95]

Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Brazil	59,28		[85,06]
Peru	15,45		[68,82]
Colombia	7,03		[28,29]
Uruguay	5,89		[21,50]
Argentina	4,51		[25,93]
Chile	2,45		[20,18]
Venezuela	1,69		[41,94]
Qatar	1,02		[20,73]
Japan	1,01		[13,82]
Ecuador	0,90		[15,00]
Paraguay	0,56		[19,86]
Bolivia	0,21		[21,00]

Overwhelming favourite is Brazil. The Copa America is quite unpredictable though. The last 3 editions of this tournament Brazil couldn't even reach the semi finals and Uruguay and Chile (twice against the other giant Argentina) were the surprising winners.

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.