I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between April 1st and yesterday the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-05-29 Cayman Islands - Cuba 0:0 (Cayman Islands)
2019-05-31 Cayman Islands - Cuba 0:1 (Cayman Islands)
2019-06-07 Guinea - Gambia 0:1 (Morocco)
2019-06-07 Tajikistan - Afghanistan 1:1 (Tajikistan)
2019-06-09 Ghana - Namibia 0:1 (United Arab Emirates)
2019-06-09 Uganda - Turkmenistan 0:0 (United Arab Emirates)
2019-06-10 Trinidad and Tobago - Canada 0:2 (USA)
See here for 'my inclusion rules'.
Extra assumption: the I-factor for the UEFA Nations League 2019 knock-out matches is 25.
We will see how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)
Best movers:
9 - Hungary, Armenia, Malaysia
Worst movers:
-9 - Greece
-6 - USA, Bulgaria
Best movers in the top 50:
9 - Hungary
8 - Austria
7 - Czech Republic
Worst movers in the top 50:
-6 - USA
-5 - Serbia
-4 - Wales, Venezuela, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Two teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Senegal (22 - 23 in November 2017)
Kosovo (121 - 127 in April 2019)
One team drops to new lows:
Pakistan (205 - 203 in February 2018)
June 2019 rank - Team - June 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Belgium | 1745.69 | 0 | 9,0 |
| 2 | France | 1718.24 | 0 | -16,0 |
| 3 | Brazil | 1680.90 | 0 | 5,0 |
| 4 | England | 1637.21 | 0 | -10,0 |
| 5 | Portugal | 1631.09 | 2 | 24,0 |
| 6 | Croatia | 1624.88 | -1 | 4,0 |
| 7 | Spain | 1617.43 | 2 | 16,0 |
| 8 | Uruguay | 1615.18 | -2 | 2,0 |
| 9 | Switzerland | 1592.88 | -1 | -11,0 |
| 10 | Denmark | 1589.21 | 0 | 3,0 |
| 11 | Germany | 1582.29 | 2 | 12,0 |
| 11 | Argentina | 1581.51 | 0 | 2,0 |
| 13 | Colombia | 1580.49 | -1 | 7,0 |
| 14 | Italy | 1569.41 | 3 | 19,0 |
| 15 | Chile | 1561.46 | 0 | 2,0 |
| 16 | Sweden | 1557.67 | -2 | -9,0 |
| 17 | Netherlands | 1557.30 | -1 | 3,0 |
| 17 | Mexico | 1557.18 | 1 | 8,0 |
| 19 | Poland | 1549.91 | 1 | 15,0 |
| 20 | Iran | 1518.13 | 1 | 2,0 |
| 21 | Peru | 1516.04 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 22 | Senegal | 1514.71 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 23 | Wales | 1513.54 | -4 | -25,0 |
| 24 | Ukraine | 1512.50 | 3 | 20,0 |
| 25 | Tunisia | 1500.87 | 3 | 10,0 |
| 26 | Austria | 1498.01 | 8 | 19,0 |
| 27 | Romania | 1497.25 | -2 | 1,0 |
| 28 | Northern Ireland | 1496.19 | 5 | 15,0 |
| 28 | Japan | 1495.77 | -2 | 2,0 |
| 30 | USA | 1494.51 | -6 | -11,0 |
| 31 | Slovakia | 1490.57 | 1 | 9,0 |
| 32 | Republic of Ireland | 1489.13 | -3 | 5,0 |
| 33 | Venezuela | 1484.72 | -4 | 1,0 |
| 34 | Serbia | 1477.08 | -5 | -7,0 |
| 35 | Iceland | 1473.39 | 5 | 23,0 |
| 36 | Paraguay | 1467.55 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 37 | Korea Republic | 1467.07 | 0 | 5,0 |
| 37 | Turkey | 1466.73 | 2 | 10,0 |
| 39 | Costa Rica | 1453.09 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 39 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1452.86 | -4 | -25,0 |
| 41 | Czech Republic | 1448.20 | 7 | 24,0 |
| 42 | Hungary | 1441.61 | 9 | 23,0 |
| 43 | Australia | 1436.20 | -2 | -5,0 |
| 43 | Russia | 1435.93 | 3 | 11,0 |
| 45 | Scotland | 1432.90 | -1 | 3,0 |
| 45 | Nigeria | 1432.61 | -3 | -2,0 |
| 47 | Morocco | 1429.28 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 47 | Norway | 1429.02 | 3 | 9,0 |
| 49 | Congo DR | 1424.35 | -3 | -1,0 |
| 50 | Ghana | 1422.67 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 51 | Cameroon | 1403.57 | 3 | 5,0 |
| 52 | Greece | 1403.43 | -9 | -30,0 |
| 53 | Montenegro | 1400.64 | -2 | -18,0 |
| 54 | Jamaica | 1397.08 | 2 | 6,0 |
| 55 | Qatar | 1395.77 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 56 | Finland | 1393.58 | 4 | 19,0 |
| 57 | Bulgaria | 1387.64 | -6 | -31,0 |
| 58 | Egypt | 1384.34 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 59 | Burkina Faso | 1380.56 | -1 | 1,0 |
| 60 | Ecuador | 1375.46 | -1 | -3,0 |
| 61 | Honduras | 1367.53 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 62 | Cote d'Ivoire | 1366.96 | 3 | 2,0 |
| 63 | Bolivia | 1365.14 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 63 | Mali | 1364.66 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 65 | Slovenia | 1362.95 | -2 | -3,0 |
| 66 | Albania | 1362.22 | -4 | -6,0 |
| 67 | United Arab Emirates | 1359.74 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 68 | Algeria | 1350.61 | 2 | 3,0 |
| 69 | Guinea | 1343.10 | -1 | -6,0 |
| 70 | El Salvador | 1341.87 | 1 | -2,0 |
| 70 | Saudi Arabia | 1341.57 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 72 | South Africa | 1336.25 | 1 | 1,0 |
| 73 | China PR | 1333.49 | 1 | 6,0 |
| 73 | North Macedonia | 1333.05 | -5 | -17,0 |
| 75 | Panama | 1321.74 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 76 | Cape Verde Islands | 1318.88 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 77 | Iraq | 1315.25 | -1 | -4,0 |
| 78 | Canada | 1314.39 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 79 | Zambia | 1302.46 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 79 | Curacao | 1302.06 | 3 | 6,0 |
| 79 | Uganda | 1301.69 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 82 | Israel | 1286.39 | 2 | 1,0 |
| 82 | Belarus | 1286.22 | -1 | -15,0 |
| 82 | Uzbekistan | 1285.81 | 3 | 7,0 |
| 85 | Syria | 1278.24 | -2 | -8,0 |
| 86 | Oman | 1276.63 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 86 | Lebanon | 1276.63 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 88 | Benin | 1272.83 | 3 | 6,0 |
| 89 | Gabon | 1272.19 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 90 | Congo | 1265.41 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 90 | Luxembourg | 1265.25 | -4 | -12,0 |
| 92 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1259.73 | 1 | 2,0 |
| 93 | Cyprus | 1258.44 | -4 | -18,0 |
| 94 | Georgia | 1255.23 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 95 | Kyrgyzstan | 1252.37 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 96 | Vietnam | 1232.17 | 2 | 5,0 |
| 97 | Armenia | 1229.76 | 9 | 24,0 |
| 98 | Jordan | 1229.37 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 99 | Estonia | 1227.98 | -3 | -12,0 |
| 100 | Palestine | 1224.22 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 101 | Haiti | 1221.24 | -1 | -2,0 |
| 102 | India | 1219.22 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 103 | Mauritania | 1210.05 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 104 | Niger | 1209.12 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 105 | Kenya | 1207.15 | 3 | 5,0 |
| 105 | Libya | 1206.62 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 107 | Faroe Islands | 1200.34 | -5 | -13,0 |
| 108 | Madagascar | 1198.22 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 109 | Zimbabwe | 1196.46 | 1 | 6,0 |
| 110 | Azerbaijan | 1187.79 | -2 | -14,0 |
| 110 | Bahrain | 1187.71 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 112 | Central African Republic | 1184.32 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 113 | Namibia | 1181.55 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 114 | Kazakhstan | 1173.78 | 2 | 3,0 |
| 115 | Sierra Leone | 1172.13 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 116 | Thailand | 1164.79 | -2 | -9,0 |
| 117 | Mozambique | 1162.70 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 118 | New Zealand | 1157.36 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 119 | Guinea-Bissau | 1152.70 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 120 | Tajikistan | 1151.91 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 121 | Kosovo | 1148.70 | 6 | 25,0 |
| 122 | Korea DPR | 1148.45 | -1 | -4,0 |
| 122 | Angola | 1147.58 | 0 | 6,0 |
| 124 | Antigua and Barbuda | 1136.30 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 125 | Chinese Taipei | 1131.73 | 0 | 4,0 |
| 126 | Philippines | 1131.41 | -2 | -4,0 |
| 127 | Malawi | 1127.81 | 1 | 6,0 |
| 128 | Togo | 1126.50 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 129 | Nicaragua | 1118.07 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 130 | Sudan | 1106.24 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 131 | Tanzania | 1104.80 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 132 | Lithuania | 1101.49 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 133 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 1096.26 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 134 | Turkmenistan | 1088.93 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 135 | Rwanda | 1087.67 | 3 | 0,0 |
| 136 | Burundi | 1086.55 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 137 | Latvia | 1085.79 | -4 | -15,0 |
| 138 | Myanmar | 1084.31 | 2 | 4,0 |
| 139 | Andorra | 1081.52 | -5 | -17,0 |
| 140 | Solomon Islands | 1076.97 | -1 | -6,0 |
| 141 | Equatorial Guinea | 1074.12 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 141 | Hong Kong | 1073.95 | 0 | -4,0 |
| 141 | Eswatini | 1073.80 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 144 | Lesotho | 1072.90 | -2 | -2,0 |
| 144 | Yemen | 1072.76 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 146 | Guatemala | 1071.71 | -3 | -2,0 |
| 147 | Comoros | 1069.54 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 148 | Botswana | 1068.55 | 0 | 9,0 |
| 149 | Afghanistan | 1056.86 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 150 | Ethiopia | 1048.88 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 151 | Maldives | 1046.21 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 152 | Suriname | 1045.50 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 153 | Liberia | 1043.74 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 154 | Dominican Republic | 1027.71 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 155 | New Caledonia | 1025.69 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 156 | Kuwait | 1022.42 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 157 | Mauritius | 1019.84 | -1 | -2,0 |
| 158 | Tahiti | 1014.51 | 0 | -5,0 |
| 159 | Malaysia | 1009.05 | 9 | 23,0 |
| 160 | Indonesia | 1005.43 | -1 | -3,0 |
| 161 | Singapore | 999.45 | -1 | 1,0 |
| 162 | Vanuatu | 996.67 | 4 | 6,0 |
| 163 | Barbados | 996.39 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 164 | Nepal | 994.78 | -3 | -1,0 |
| 165 | Gambia | 993.66 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 165 | Belize | 993.51 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 167 | Fiji | 992.33 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 168 | South Sudan | 989.48 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 169 | Cambodia | 987.95 | 4 | 21,0 |
| 170 | Moldova | 984.62 | 1 | 11,0 |
| 171 | Papua New Guinea | 984.00 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 172 | St. Lucia | 974.10 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 173 | Grenada | 972.61 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 174 | Bermuda | 963.63 | 1 | 5,0 |
| 175 | Cuba | 960.91 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 176 | Chad | 956.00 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 177 | Dominica | 954.30 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 177 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 953.92 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 179 | Guyana | 951.36 | -4 | -8,0 |
| 180 | Puerto Rico | 940.36 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 181 | Malta | 938.59 | -1 | -4,0 |
| 182 | Macau | 936.13 | 1 | 11,0 |
| 183 | Liechtenstein | 921.94 | -1 | -10,0 |
| 183 | Bangladesh | 921.93 | 5 | 13,0 |
| 185 | Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe | 920.00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 186 | Bhutan | 915.97 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 187 | Mongolia | 914.06 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 188 | Laos | 912.07 | -4 | -11,0 |
| 189 | Aruba | 909.07 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 190 | Guam | 908.28 | 3 | 1,0 |
| 190 | American Samoa | 908.00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 190 | Cook Islands | 908.00 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 193 | Brunei Darussalam | 903.90 | 1 | 1,0 |
| 194 | Seychelles | 902.47 | -4 | -6,0 |
| 195 | Djibouti | 896.00 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 195 | Samoa | 896.00 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 197 | Montserrat | 894.66 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 198 | Gibraltar | 892.60 | -3 | -7,0 |
| 199 | US Virgin Islands | 888.14 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 200 | Timor-Leste | 879.43 | -5 | -21,0 |
| 201 | Sri Lanka | 872.13 | 1 | -14,0 |
| 202 | Eritrea | 868.00 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 202 | Somalia | 868.00 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 202 | Tonga | 868.00 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 205 | Cayman Islands | 867.12 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 205 | Pakistan | 866.81 | -5 | -21,0 |
| 205 | British Virgin Islands | 866.70 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 208 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 861.67 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 209 | Anguilla | 856.55 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 210 | Bahamas | 854.65 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 211 | San Marino | 839.45 | 0 | -9,0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Fantastic to see Northern Ireland shoot up 5 places! :-)
ReplyDeleteBelgium and San Marino are respectively the highest and lowest ranked teams when the ranking will be published on friday. Their next game:
ReplyDelete06/09/2019 San Marino (839.45) - Belgium (1745.69) => Belgium stands to win the minimum, currently 0.75, in a confederation qualifier (I=25).
Is it correct that only Brazil can overtake Belgium before that game and to do so Brazil would have to win all their games in this year's Copa? Or is it possible for Brazil to drop points and still overtake Belgium at the end of the Copa?
Well, elo predicts that Brazil will win the Copa with 6 wins and in that case they will just overtake Belgium at the top of the ranking (1755 vs 1746 pts). Any draw or not reaching the final or even a PSO win in the final will be enough for Belgium to stay first, although in that last situation the difference will be minimal (1745 for Brazil).
ReplyDeleteI will soon publish the preview of the July ranking.
Massive game coming up.
DeleteBrazil were held to a draw by Venezuela. Belgium to stay first and San Marino will be last in September. No.1 against No.211. Dare I say, it will be the game of the year. Alert the media!
Poor Russia, still trying to cope with having their ranking dropped so low due to hosting the World Cup. If 2022 draw was now they would barely sneak int Pot 3.
ReplyDeleteI'm having trouble coming up with the new ranking points for France. I came up with the answer of 1718.20 instead of 1718.24. What was the exact beginning value ranking points in France's April 4 fifa rankings. I need to see the calculation of France's last three opponents they played.
ReplyDeleteThanks
FRA april ranking: 1733,7534
DeleteBOL: 1366,1189; FRA: after friendly against BOL 1734,7339
TUR: 1461,1690; FRA: after EUROq against TUR 1716,2152
AND: 1083,5435; FRA: after EUROq against AND 1718,2419
Hi, Ed! I need to see the calculation of Barbados' last four opponents they played, please (my points: 996,57.)
Deletedate - opponent - tournament - I - GF - GA - Es - Es-opp - pts - E
Delete2019-03-24 - NCA - CNL 2020 Q - 15 - 0 - 1 - 1002,234 - 1119,232 - -5,844 - 996,390
2019-03-08 - DMA - Friendly 2019 - 5 - 2 - 0 - 999,971 - 950,302 - 2,262 - 1002,234
2019-03-06 - LCA - Friendly 2019 - 5 - 2 - 0 - 997,601 - 970,622 - 2,371 - 999,971
2019-03-04 - GRN - Friendly 2019 (awd) - 5 - 3 - 0 - 995,232 - 967,790 - 2,368 - 997,601
2019-02-28 - VIN - Friendly 2019 - 5 - 0 - 2 - 997,981 - 945,993 - -2,749 - 995,232
I: I-factor
GF/GA: goals for/against
Es: startpoints BRB
Es-opp: startpoints opponent
pts: points-exchange for BRB
E: points BRB after match
Thank you, Ed!
DeleteI've compared my calculations with the published ranking and found that the following adjustments to my calculations had to be made to completely match the ranking:
ReplyDelete- the result of the friendly Algeria-Burundi (June 11th) turned out to be 1:1 instead of the 1:0 that I had found earlier.
- South Africa, Zimbabwe and Zambia apparently played with a B-team in the COSAFA Cup 2019. All their matches in that cup were excluded from the ranking.
- the I-factor for the Nations League finals was indeed 25, but apparently this competition is handled by FIFA as a 'final competition' so teams can not lose points in these matches. This leads to England, Switzerland and the Netherlands gaining an extra 15, 12 and 12 points compared to my calculations. Thank you, FIFA :)
FIFA excluded and I included:
2019-06-01 ZIM-COM COSAFA Cup 2019 quarter final 2:0
2019-06-02 RSA-BOT COSAFA Cup 2019 quarter final 2:2 pso 4:5
2019-06-02 ZAM-MWI COSAFA Cup 2019 quarter final 2:2 pso 4:2
2019-06-04 UGA-RSA COSAFA Cup 2019 play-off 5th-8th place 1:1 pso 2:4
2019-06-05 ZIM-ZAM COSAFA Cup 2019 semi final 0:0 pso 2:4
2019-06-07 RSA-MWI COSAFA Cup 2019 play-off 5th place 0:0 pso 5:4
2019-06-07 LES-ZIM COSAFA Cup 2019 play-off 3rd place 2:2 pso 4:5
2019-06-07 CIV-COM friendly 3:1
2019-06-08 ANG-GNB friendly 2:0
2019-06-08 BOT-ZAM COSAFA Cup 2019 final 0:1
2019-06-11 HAI-GUY friendly 3:1
FIFA included and I excluded:
2019-06-07 TJK-AFG friendly 1:1
2019-06-07 GUI-GAM friendly 0:1
2019-06-09 UGA-TKM friendly 0:0
With these adjustments 139 matches are included in the June ranking, the same number FIFA presented in their overview.
Well, it sure was fun again! When I saw your calculations at first I thought that you were wrong about the nations league finals, because teams don't lose points in knockout stages in finals tournaments, and so it proved. But anyway, I have all the numbers correct now so I'm happy about that!
ReplyDeleteTajikistan v Afghanistan, Uganda v Uzbekistan and Guinea v Gambia are counted (for now). South Africa and Zimbabwe's matches in the COSAFA Cup were disregarded. In addition, the match between Mozambique (used 11 substitutes) and Eswatini on 10/03 was demoted as 'A' international.
Indeed, Zambia's results from COSAFA Cup also excluded.
DeleteWell Homer, 'teams don't lose points in knockout stages in final tournaments'. That's correct, but the question is: which tournaments are final tournaments?
DeleteThe COSAFA CUP (last year and this year) apparently isn't because teams lose points in the knockout stages of that tournament. Apparently the Nations League is considered a final tournament, but I just wasn't so sure about that beforehand.
Same question remains for the Confederations Cup (if that cup is scheduled again). Until now I only considered the World Cup and the continental cup finals as such. The Nations League finals is now added to that list.
Yes Ed, we need to confirm this point... Important Question: Does FIFA consider the Friendly Tournaments such as Cosafa cup, WAFF, . Etc as final competitions of contininents or Confederation cup Or not?, so the loser in knock out will not lose points? I don't think so, I think that is applied for official Tournaments.
DeleteWhich two soccer matches were included in the April 4th fifa rankings. Bermuda 2-2 Cuba on February 25th closed door game or Eswatini 1-1 Mozambique game on March 10th.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Fifa should think about their ranking procedure. Teams don't lose points in knockout matches of official tournaments. I understand they want to benefit successful teams but there are teams with more opportunities than others.
ReplyDeleteConcacaf Gold Cup, Africa Cup of Nations take place every two years. European Championships, Asian Cup only every four years. The copa america takes place in 2019 and 2020 and they go back to regular 4 year span after that. I see more chances for teams like Mexico or teams who are successful on 2 or 3 successive occasions in Africa to move to new heights. Maybe the World Cup finals will equal that a little bit.
Hi Ed
ReplyDeleteI'm having trouble coming up with the ranking points for both Laos and Bangladesh. What were the beginning ranking points for both teams the April 4th rankings and the calculations for both teams on games played to come up with the ranking points for the June 14th rankings. I came up with 911.80 for Laos and 921.91 for Bangladesh. Somehow I'm off by .27 for Laos and .02 for Bangladesh.
Thanks
Have you included two matches between Laos vs Sri Lanka in May?
Deleteyes
ReplyDeletenever mind I found my mistake. I was 30 points short on the Sri Lanka beginning value ranking with the matchup against Laos on May 28.
ReplyDeleteThank you
In the king's cup matches involving Vietnam, Thailand, India and Curacao I came up with correct fifa June ranking points for three of the countries except for Vietnam. Somehow I came up with 1232.18 instead of the 1232.17 that you have. What was the begining ranking point value for Vietnam before the king's cup matchups and the calculation during Vietnam's two opponents.
ReplyDeleteThanks
VIE-THA 1:0; I=10
ReplyDeletestart values: VIE 1227,020, THA 1173,845
end values: VIE 1231,512, THA 1169,354
VIE-CUW 1:1 CUW PSO Win (so VIE W=0,5; CUW W=0,75); I=10
start values: VIE 1231,512, CUW 1300,212
end values: VIE 1232,167, CUW 1302,057