Here is a second preview of the probable July 2019 ranking, to be published on July 25th.
This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 31 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 39 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.
Probable July 2019 rank - Team - Probable July 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Belgium | 1746 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 2 | Brazil | 1726 | 1 | 45,0 |
| 3 | France | 1718 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 4 | England | 1652 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 5 | Uruguay | 1637 | 3 | 22,0 |
| 6 | Portugal | 1631 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 7 | Croatia | 1625 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 8 | Colombia | 1622 | 5 | 42,0 |
| 9 | Spain | 1617 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 10 | Argentina | 1610 | 1 | 28,0 |
| 11 | Switzerland | 1605 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 12 | Mexico | 1604 | 6 | 47,0 |
| 13 | Denmark | 1589 | -3 | 0,0 |
| 14 | Chile | 1583 | 2 | 22,0 |
| 15 | Germany | 1582 | -4 | 0,0 |
| 16 | Italy | 1569 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 16 | Netherlands | 1569 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 18 | Senegal | 1567 | 4 | 52,0 |
| 19 | Sweden | 1558 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 20 | Peru | 1552 | 1 | 36,0 |
| 21 | Poland | 1550 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 22 | USA | 1548 | 8 | 53,0 |
| 23 | Iran | 1518 | -3 | 0,0 |
| 24 | Wales | 1514 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 25 | Ukraine | 1513 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 26 | Venezuela | 1505 | 7 | 20,0 |
| 27 | Austria | 1498 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 28 | Romania | 1497 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 29 | Northern Ireland | 1496 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 30 | Slovakia | 1491 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 31 | Tunisia | 1490 | -6 | -11,0 |
| 32 | Republic of Ireland | 1489 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 33 | Japan | 1481 | -5 | -15,0 |
| 34 | Serbia | 1477 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 35 | Iceland | 1473 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 36 | Nigeria | 1468 | 9 | 35,0 |
| 37 | Korea Republic | 1467 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 37 | Turkey | 1467 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 39 | Paraguay | 1464 | -3 | -4,0 |
| 40 | Morocco | 1461 | 7 | 32,0 |
| 41 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1453 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 42 | Czech Republic | 1448 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 43 | Costa Rica | 1445 | -4 | -8,0 |
| 44 | Hungary | 1442 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 45 | Australia | 1436 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 45 | Russia | 1436 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 47 | Scotland | 1433 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 48 | Algeria | 1431 | 20 | 85,0 |
| 48 | Egypt | 1431 | 10 | 47,0 |
| 50 | Norway | 1429 | -3 | 0,0 |
| 51 | Ghana | 1427 | -1 | 4,0 |
| 52 | Jamaica | 1425 | 2 | 28,0 |
| 53 | Cameroon | 1409 | -2 | 5,0 |
| 54 | Greece | 1403 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 55 | Montenegro | 1401 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 56 | Congo DR | 1395 | -7 | -29,0 |
| 57 | Cote d'Ivoire | 1394 | 5 | 29,0 |
| 57 | Finland | 1394 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 59 | Mali | 1389 | 3 | 24,0 |
| 60 | Bulgaria | 1388 | -3 | 0,0 |
| 61 | Burkina Faso | 1381 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 62 | Qatar | 1375 | -7 | -21,0 |
| 63 | Slovenia | 1363 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 64 | Albania | 1362 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 65 | United Arab Emirates | 1360 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 66 | Ecuador | 1359 | -6 | -16,0 |
| 67 | Honduras | 1350 | -6 | -18,0 |
| 68 | Saudi Arabia | 1342 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 69 | El Salvador | 1341 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 70 | South Africa | 1339 | 2 | 4,0 |
| 71 | China PR | 1333 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 71 | North Macedonia | 1333 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 73 | Bolivia | 1332 | -11 | -33,0 |
| 74 | Panama | 1331 | 1 | 9,0 |
| 75 | Guinea | 1325 | -4 | -11,0 |
| 76 | Cape Verde Islands | 1319 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 77 | Iraq | 1315 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 78 | Canada | 1312 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 79 | Curacao | 1309 | 0 | 7,0 |
| 80 | Uganda | 1305 | 0 | 6,0 |
| 81 | Zambia | 1299 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 82 | Benin | 1295 | 6 | 22,0 |
| 83 | Haiti | 1288 | 18 | 69,0 |
| 84 | Israel | 1286 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 84 | Belarus | 1286 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 84 | Syria | 1286 | 1 | 8,0 |
| 84 | Uzbekistan | 1286 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 88 | Oman | 1277 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 88 | Lebanon | 1277 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 90 | Gabon | 1272 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 91 | Congo | 1265 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 91 | Luxembourg | 1265 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 93 | Cyprus | 1258 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 94 | Madagascar | 1257 | 14 | 59,0 |
| 95 | Georgia | 1255 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 96 | Kyrgyzstan | 1252 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 97 | Vietnam | 1232 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 98 | Armenia | 1230 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 99 | Jordan | 1229 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 100 | Estonia | 1228 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 101 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1226 | -9 | -34,0 |
| 102 | Palestine | 1224 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 103 | India | 1214 | -2 | -5,0 |
| 104 | Niger | 1209 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 105 | Libya | 1207 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 106 | Mauritania | 1203 | -3 | -7,0 |
| 107 | Kenya | 1201 | -2 | -6,0 |
| 108 | Faroe Islands | 1200 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 109 | Azerbaijan | 1188 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 109 | Bahrain | 1188 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 111 | Central African Republic | 1184 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 112 | Zimbabwe | 1174 | -3 | -18,0 |
| 112 | Kazakhstan | 1174 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 114 | Sierra Leone | 1172 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 115 | Thailand | 1165 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 116 | Mozambique | 1163 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 117 | New Zealand | 1157 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 118 | Tajikistan | 1152 | 2 | 1,0 |
| 119 | Kosovo | 1149 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 120 | Namibia | 1148 | -7 | -34,0 |
| 121 | Korea DPR | 1145 | 1 | -3,0 |
| 122 | Angola | 1144 | 1 | 2,0 |
| 123 | Guinea-Bissau | 1143 | -5 | -15,0 |
| 124 | Antigua and Barbuda | 1136 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 125 | Chinese Taipei | 1132 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 126 | Philippines | 1131 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 126 | Malawi | 1131 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 128 | Togo | 1127 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 129 | Sudan | 1106 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 130 | Lithuania | 1101 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 131 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 1096 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 132 | Turkmenistan | 1091 | 3 | 0,0 |
| 133 | Rwanda | 1088 | 3 | 0,0 |
| 134 | Latvia | 1086 | 3 | 0,0 |
| 135 | Myanmar | 1084 | 3 | 0,0 |
| 136 | Andorra | 1082 | 3 | 0,0 |
| 137 | Solomon Islands | 1079 | 3 | 2,0 |
| 138 | Tanzania | 1075 | -7 | -30,0 |
| 138 | Nicaragua | 1075 | -9 | -43,0 |
| 140 | Equatorial Guinea | 1074 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 140 | Hong Kong | 1074 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 140 | Eswatini | 1074 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 143 | Yemen | 1073 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 144 | Lesotho | 1072 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 144 | Guatemala | 1072 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 146 | Comoros | 1071 | 2 | 3,0 |
| 147 | Botswana | 1069 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 148 | Burundi | 1060 | -14 | -32,0 |
| 149 | Afghanistan | 1058 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 150 | Ethiopia | 1049 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 151 | Suriname | 1045 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 152 | Maldives | 1044 | -1 | -2,0 |
| 152 | Liberia | 1044 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 154 | Dominican Republic | 1028 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 155 | New Caledonia | 1025 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 156 | Kuwait | 1022 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 157 | Mauritius | 1020 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 158 | Tahiti | 1014 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 159 | Malaysia | 1009 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 160 | Indonesia | 1008 | 0 | 3,0 |
| 161 | Gambia | 1006 | 0 | 4,0 |
| 162 | Vanuatu | 1001 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 163 | Fiji | 1000 | 4 | 8,0 |
| 164 | Singapore | 999 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 165 | Barbados | 996 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 166 | Nepal | 995 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 167 | Belize | 994 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 168 | South Sudan | 989 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 169 | Cambodia | 988 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 170 | Papua New Guinea | 986 | 1 | 2,0 |
| 171 | Moldova | 985 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 172 | St. Lucia | 975 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 173 | Grenada | 973 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 174 | Bermuda | 972 | 0 | 8,0 |
| 175 | Chad | 956 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 176 | Dominica | 954 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 176 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 954 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 178 | Guyana | 953 | -1 | -1,0 |
| 179 | Cuba | 950 | -4 | -11,0 |
| 180 | Puerto Rico | 940 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 181 | Malta | 939 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 182 | Macau | 936 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 183 | Liechtenstein | 922 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 183 | Bangladesh | 922 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 185 | Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe | 920 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 186 | Bhutan | 916 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 187 | Mongolia | 914 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 188 | Laos | 912 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 189 | Aruba | 909 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 190 | Guam | 908 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 190 | Cook Islands | 908 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 192 | Brunei Darussalam | 904 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 193 | American Samoa | 900 | -3 | -8,0 |
| 193 | Seychelles | 900 | 1 | -2,0 |
| 195 | Djibouti | 896 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 196 | Montserrat | 895 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 197 | Samoa | 894 | -2 | -2,0 |
| 198 | Gibraltar | 893 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 199 | US Virgin Islands | 888 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 200 | Timor-Leste | 879 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 201 | Sri Lanka | 872 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 202 | Eritrea | 868 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 202 | Somalia | 868 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 204 | Cayman Islands | 867 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 204 | Pakistan | 867 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 204 | British Virgin Islands | 867 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 207 | Tonga | 862 | -5 | -6,0 |
| 207 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 862 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 209 | Anguilla | 857 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 210 | Bahamas | 855 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 211 | San Marino | 839 | 0 | 0,0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Hello Ed, can you please report how many points each confederation won/lost (split into two sources - international matches, and knockout matches where the is always some gain).
ReplyDeleteThanks you very much,
Amir
I can sense you want to make some point with this data :)
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean with international matches ? All matches between NT-teams are internationals.
I shall see what I can do for you.
I meant intercontinental matches of course.
DeleteJust trying to understand the flow of the rankings better, since the points within continent tend to get redistributed accoring to real strength on Elo System.
Thank you very much for all your efforts!
Hey Ed, now that CONCACAF has finalized it's format, can we get a look at the race for the Hex (June 2020 rankings)?
ReplyDeleteHi Dennis, indeed did CONCACAF anounce today their qualification format for WC 2022. The seeding of the teams will be based on the June 2020 ranking:
Delete- top 6 plays a double round robin hexagonal from Sep 2020 to Sep 2021; top 3 from the hex qualifies for Qatar.
- rest of the teams (7-35) play in 8 groups (5 of 4 teams and 3 of 3 teams) a double round robin from Sep 2020 to Nov 2020
- the 8 group winners go into a knock-out phase with quarter-finals, semi-finals and a final (all home-and-away play-offs) in Mar, Jun and Sep 2021.
- the winner of the knock-out stage will finally play in a home-and-away play-off against the number 4 of the hexagonal in Oct 2021 for a spot in a intercontinental play-off.
So the June 2020 ranking will indeed be important for CONCACAF.
Currently the CONCACAF teams have only scheduled the matches in the CONCACAF Nations League this Sep, Oct and Nov.
I will give a detailed preview of this competition (simulations) and also the resulting June 2020 ranking for CONCACAF teams, somewhere this or next month.
Wow, this format is such exlusive format, I wonder if any team would be better trying to get out of the top 6, almost certainly not but still might be interesting seeing the simulations for each scenario for the relevant teams.
DeleteThe fact that is was published only after the Gold Cup results are known doesn't look good.
DeleteThe July 2019 top 6 teams probably have such a big advatange over the other teams under the new format.
That does make tge nations league much more important for the teams around 6th place, perhaps that was partially the reason for the change.
The CONCACAF format is truly bizarre, but if FIFA has approved it that means that UEFA can now set up its qualification process anyway it wants.
DeleteAny advantage to being out of the top 6 is clearly dependent on CONCACAF drawing Asia or Oceania in the playoffs. If they draw South America, forget it. Then you desperately want to be in the Hex.
DeleteYou are right ! When will be the draw for inter-confederation play-offs ?
DeleteNews also by CAF regarding the african formats of the qualifiers. Unfortunately the Caf website doesn't work very well for me at the moment. Link https://i.imgur.com/LLqyunV.jpg
ReplyDeleteYes, CAF also announced their qualification format for the World Cup 2022. Seeding for the first round could be based on the June 2019 or July 2019 ranking, dependent on the exact date of the first round draw.
ReplyDelete- Sep 2019: the first round will consist of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked teams;
- Jun, Sep 2020 and Sep, Oct and Nov 2021: the 14 winners join the other 26 African teams to be drawn in 10 groups of 4 teams;
- Mar 2022: the 10 group winners will be drawn in 5 home-and-away play-offs. The 5 winners qualify for Qatar.
The same brutal format as for the WC 2014 in Brazil.
Timing of the 3 stages is derived from the Feasibility study on the increase of the number of teams from 32 to 48 in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022.
Btw: the only difference in composition of the 28 lowest ranked African teams between the June and July ranking:
ReplyDelete- when June is used for seeding Zimbabwe gets a bye to the second round;
- when July is used for seeding Central African Republic will get the bye to the second round instead of Zimbabwe.
The new CONCACAF World Cup qualifying format is utterly insane. 29 teams battling for a quarter of a place! Who dreamt up this ridiculous idea? Hopefully they will have a change of heart before the draw is made.
ReplyDeleteQuick info regarding African 2022 World Cup Qualification (with courtesy on FIFA):
ReplyDelete- July 2019 ranking are used for the seeding of round 1
- The draw for round 1 will be held on 27 July 2019
- The following timing for matches to be held: Round 1 (September 2019); Round 2 (March 2020 - October 2021); Round 3 (November 2021)
many thanks for the infos
DeleteThanks mono,
ReplyDeleteso the 28 teams for the 14 CAF first round qualification play-offs are:
seeded:
Zimbabwe - 1174 pts
Sierra Leone - 1172
Mozambique - 1163
Namibia - 1148
Angola - 1144
Guinea-Bissau - 1143
Malawi - 1131
Togo - 1127
Sudan - 1106
Rwanda - 1088
Tanzania - 1075
Equatorial Guinea - 1074
Eswatini - 1074
Lesotho - 1072
unseeded:
Comoros - 1071
Botswana - 1069
Burundi - 1060
Ethiopia - 1049
Liberia - 1044
Mauritius - 1020
Gambia - 1006
South Sudan - 989
Chad - 956
Sao Tome e Principe - 920
Seychelles - 900
Djibouti - 896
Eritrea - 868
Somalia - 868
In this July ranking are the following predicted results included for matches played in the upcoming Indian Ocean Islands Games 2019 (matches up until July 21st are included in the July ranking):
Mauritius - Seychelles 1:0
Madagascar - Seychelles 1:0
Comoros - Maldives 1:0
Wtf argentina colombia and chile in front of Peru?
ReplyDelete