CAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (August 2019)

Next month also starts the African qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar with a first round, consisting of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked African teams. The draw was July 29th.
The fourteen winners join the other 26 African teams to form 10 groups of 4 teams in the second round, a double round robin group stage. First matchdays of the second round will be in the March-window next year. The exact date for the draw of the group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the December 2019 ranking will be used for seeding the draw for the group stage.

This Autumn also the qualifiers for the African Cup of Nations 2021 will start. First in the October-window 4 preliminary home-and-away play-offs will be played. The four winners join 44 other teams in 12 groups of 4 teams which have been drawn earlier last July. In the November-window follow the first two match-days of the group stage, to be played to a finish in Autumn 2020.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the first round in World Cup and in AFCON21 qualifying -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.
A first preview of the December 2019 ranking for African teams will also be presented.


First qualification round World Cup 2022 (probability to win the play-off):

Zimbabwe	93,11
Somalia	6,89
Eswatini	84,20
Djibouti	15,80
Equatorial Guinea	75,58
South Sudan	24,42
Rwanda	74,41
Seychelles	25,59
Namibia	71,44
Eritrea	28,56
Togo	71,12
Comoros	28,88
Guinea-Bissau	66,47
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	33,53
Mozambique	64,76
Mauritius	35,24
Chad	58,90
Sudan	41,10
Gambia	55,80
Angola	44,20
Botswana	54,65
Malawi	45,35
Liberia	53,21
Sierra Leone	46,79
Burundi	52,78
Tanzania	47,22
Ethiopia	51,71
Lesotho	48,29

Preliminary qualification round African Nations Cup 2021 (probability to win the play-off):

Gambia	92,29
Djibouti	7,71
Liberia	65,47
Chad	34,53
South Sudan	61,97
Seychelles	38,03
Mauritius	55,77
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	44,23

complete Group stage qualification African Nations Cup 2021:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Mali	50,98	26,34	14,90	7,78
Guinea	23,07	30,76	26,48	19,69
Namibia	12,77	20,56	29,64	37,03
Liberia	9,29	15,17	18,60	22,41
Chad	3,89	7,17	10,38	13,09
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Burkina Faso	52,47	30,01	14,57	2,95
Uganda	33,17	38,41	22,95	5,47
Malawi	13,08	25,96	43,98	16,98
South Sudan	0,82	3,55	11,40	46,20
Seychelles	0,46	2,07	7,10	28,40
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Ghana	59,91	32,18	6,76	1,15
South Africa	35,66	48,26	12,72	3,36
Sudan	2,95	12,61	46,77	37,67
Mauritius	0,88	3,92	18,64	32,33
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	0,60	3,03	15,11	25,49
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Congo DR	46,77	27,24	17,03	8,96
Gabon	22,41	27,75	27,40	22,44
Angola	16,84	24,47	29,09	29,60
Gambia	13,61	19,54	24,58	34,56
Djibouti	0,37	1,00	1,90	4,44
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Egypt	75,77	18,17	5,66	0,40
Kenya	13,24	42,90	35,33	8,53
Togo	10,52	34,58	43,51	11,39
Comoros	0,47	4,35	15,50	79,68
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cameroon	70,84	20,56	6,80	1,80
Cape Verde Islands	18,23	41,21	25,53	15,03
Mozambique	5,82	19,44	34,68	40,06
Rwanda	5,11	18,79	32,99	43,11
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Morocco	86,73	10,13	2,48	0,66
Mauritania	5,32	33,44	32,11	29,13
Central African Republic	4,44	30,46	34,41	30,69
Burundi	3,51	25,97	31,00	39,52
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Algeria	77,89	16,31	4,76	1,04
Zambia	9,88	37,05	31,87	21,20
Zimbabwe	9,00	31,34	34,82	24,84
Botswana	3,23	15,30	28,55	52,92
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Senegal	93,58	5,70	0,63	0,09
Congo	4,20	52,32	28,49	14,99
Guinea-Bissau	1,61	27,51	40,58	30,30
Eswatini	0,61	14,47	30,30	54,62
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tunisia	62,51	24,63	9,80	3,06
Libya	23,14	37,36	24,91	14,59
Equatorial Guinea	7,67	20,34	33,16	38,83
Tanzania	6,68	17,67	32,13	43,52
group K	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cote d'Ivoire	77,71	16,16	4,86	1,27
Madagascar	12,56	40,14	29,20	18,10
Niger	6,41	26,35	35,27	31,97
Ethiopia	3,32	17,35	30,67	48,66
group L	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Nigeria	75,56	17,16	5,51	1,77
Benin	14,44	40,81	27,74	17,01
Sierra Leone	6,43	23,52	36,17	33,88
Lesotho	3,57	18,51	30,58	47,34

And finally a preview of the December 2019 ranking for African teams divided in 3 pots of 10 and the rest of the African teams from which pot 4 will be filled. The teams are ordered by average ranking position when qualified for the group stage.

teams	pot1	pot2	pot3	pot4
Senegal	100,00	0	0	0
Tunisia	100,00	0	0	0
Nigeria	100,00	0	0	0
Algeria	100,00	0	0	0
Morocco	100,00	0	0	0
Egypt	99,67	0,33	0	0
Ghana	99,03	0,97	0	0
Cameroon	92,21	7,79	0	0
Cote d'Ivoire	74,90	25,10	0	0
Congo DR	58,20	41,80	0	0
------------------------------------
Mali	51,41	48,59	0	0
Burkina Faso	24,58	75,42	0	0
South Africa	0	100,00	0	0
Guinea	0	100,00	0	0
Cape Verde Islands	0	100,00	0	0
Uganda	0	100,00	0	0
Zambia	0	99,83	0,17	0
Benin	0	99,60	0,40	0
Gabon	0	88,74	11,26	0
Congo	0	75,40	24,60	0
------------------------------------
Madagascar	0	36,34	63,66	0
Libya	0	0,02	99,98	0
Niger	0	0,05	99,95	0
Mauritania	0	0,02	99,98	0
Kenya	0	0	99,98	0,02
Zimbabwe	0	0	92,29	0,82
Central African Republic	0	0	98,56	1,44
Sierra Leone	0	0	44,88	1,91
Mozambique	0	0	59,11	5,65
Namibia	0	0	52,27	19,17
------------------------------------
Angola	0	0	27,80	16,40
Guinea-Bissau	0	0	42,61	23,86
Togo	0	0	43,63	27,49
Malawi	0	0	21,85	23,50
Sudan	0	0	3,93	37,17
Rwanda	0	0	3,73	70,68
Equatorial Guinea	0	0	2,49	73,09
Tanzania	0	0	1,55	45,67
Lesotho	0	0	1,05	47,24
Botswana	0	0	1,29	53,36
Eswatini	0	0	0,97	83,23
Burundi	0	0	0,45	52,33
Liberia	0	0	1,13	52,08
Comoros	0	0	0,28	28,60
Ethiopia	0	0	0,13	51,58
Gambia	0	0	0,02	55,78
Mauritius	0	0	0	35,24
South Sudan	0	0	0	24,42
Chad	0	0	0	58,90
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	0	0	0	33,53
Seychelles	0	0	0	25,59
Djibouti	0	0	0	15,80
Eritrea	0	0	0	28,56
Somalia	0	0	0	6,89

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.