AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (September 2019)

The first two match days of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
China PR	57,08	36,30	6,16	0,46	0,00
Syria	40,82	49,88	8,05	1,16	0,09
Philippines	1,77	10,29	58,93	26,73	2,28
Maldives	0,33	3,51	25,87	62,02	8,27
Guam	0,00	0,02	0,99	9,63	89,36
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Australia	73,58	22,62	3,73	0,06	0,01
Jordan	22,64	51,54	24,60	1,18	0,04
Kuwait	3,77	25,32	64,26	5,91	0,74
Nepal	0,01	0,45	5,39	65,62	28,53
Chinese Taipei	0,00	0,07	2,02	27,23	70,68
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Iran	73,11	18,94	7,79	0,15	0,01
Iraq	17,45	47,13	32,60	2,63	0,19
Bahrain	9,38	32,49	52,32	5,54	0,27
Hong Kong	0,06	1,42	6,72	74,79	17,01
Cambodia	0,00	0,02	0,57	16,89	82,52
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Uzbekistan	45,13	28,87	16,46	6,80	2,74
Saudi Arabia	27,81	26,78	27,31	12,38	5,72
Palestine	23,18	32,07	26,29	12,37	6,09
Singapore	2,25	6,49	16,35	37,03	37,88
Yemen	1,63	5,79	13,59	31,42	47,57
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Qatar	67,20	28,94	3,54	0,31	0,01
Oman	31,11	56,30	10,38	2,11	0,10
India	0,71	7,80	50,32	36,96	4,21
Afghanistan	0,97	6,87	34,49	51,89	5,78
Bangladesh	0,01	0,09	1,27	8,73	89,90
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Japan	89,47	8,70	1,77	0,06	0,00
Tajikistan	7,78	59,91	29,05	3,00	0,26
Kyrgyzstan	2,72	29,09	55,91	9,40	2,88
Myanmar	0,02	1,92	8,60	48,41	41,05
Mongolia	0,01	0,38	4,67	39,13	55,81
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
United Arab Emirates	60,09	23,21	12,88	3,17	0,65
Thailand	20,38	35,69	28,89	12,03	3,01
Vietnam	16,92	30,00	31,87	15,23	5,98
Malaysia	2,20	9,05	19,43	46,15	23,17
Indonesia	0,41	2,05	6,93	23,42	67,19
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Korea Republic	82,67	13,47	3,41	0,45	0,00
Korea DPR	12,63	51,43	27,10	8,83	0,01
Lebanon	3,96	23,89	44,18	27,39	0,58
Turkmenistan	0,74	11,21	25,17	61,71	1,17
Sri Lanka	0,00	0,00	0,14	1,62	98,24

The probabilities to qualify for a next round and the difference (in procent-point) compared to the simulations before the start:

Third round WCq - 1 to 12 (or 13 if Qatar is in this group)

Japan	96,88	-1,81
Korea Republic	94,24	-2,28
Australia	94,09	5,81
Iran	89,04	-5,10
China PR	88,64	2,68
Syria	81,66	-3,17
Oman	73,52	5,85
United Arab Emirates	71,19	9,28
Jordan	65,08	12,62
Uzbekistan	54,25	-21,54
Iraq	49,03	-11,51
Korea DPR	47,86	27,93
Tajikistan	43,91	23,99
Saudi Arabia	34,91	-26,29
Thailand	33,70	10,99
Palestine	32,31	12,83
Bahrain	30,33	11,30
Vietnam	28,31	-3,24
Kuwait	22,27	-16,59
Lebanon	18,24	-18,61
Kyrgyzstan	17,00	-11,34
Philippines	7,79	0,50
Turkmenistan	5,88	1,71
India	4,13	-1,01
Malaysia	4,03	1,16
Afghanistan	3,77	2,14
Singapore	2,87	2,41
Yemen	2,16	0,91
Maldives	1,78	1,00
Indonesia	0,50	-8,05
Hong Kong	0,25	-0,59
Myanmar	0,23	-2,03
Nepal	0,07	0,06
Mongolia	0,07	0,07
Bangladesh	0,01	0,01
Guam	0	-0,02
Chinese Taipei	0	-0,07
Cambodia	0	0
Qatar	0	0
Sri Lanka	0	0

AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 1 to 12

Japan	96,10	-2,15
Korea Republic	92,95	-2,64
Australia	92,23	6,29
Qatar	87,56	-8,42
Iran	87,28	-4,92
China PR	85,78	3,92
Syria	76,87	-3,86
United Arab Emirates	67,93	9,15
Oman	66,94	7,21
Jordan	60,32	13,24
Uzbekistan	50,90	-20,61
Iraq	42,59	-11,13
Korea DPR	41,64	26,39
Tajikistan	36,93	22,01
Saudi Arabia	31,76	-23,68
Thailand	29,37	9,27
Palestine	28,98	12,30
Bahrain	25,92	10,28
Vietnam	24,60	-3,49
Kuwait	18,96	-14,90
Lebanon	14,56	-15,58
Kyrgyzstan	13,39	-8,39
Philippines	6,50	0,72
Turkmenistan	4,25	1,75
Malaysia	3,21	0,74
India	3,20	-0,44
Afghanistan	2,85	1,73
Singapore	2,54	2,17
Yemen	1,81	0,94
Maldives	1,29	0,74
Indonesia	0,46	-7,00
Hong Kong	0,15	-0,44
Myanmar	0,11	-1,21
Mongolia	0,05	0,05
Nepal	0,01	0
Bangladesh	0,01	0,01
Guam	0	-0,01
Chinese Taipei	0	-0,04
Cambodia	0	0
Sri Lanka	0	0

ANCq3 - 13 to 28 (or 29 if China is in this group)

Philippines	80,70	2,65
India	79,87	2,53
Kyrgyzstan	79,70	4,72
Lebanon	78,90	11,00
Kuwait	78,27	13,28
Turkmenistan	76,65	-1,86
Bahrain	72,06	-7,29
Afghanistan	68,11	5,59
Vietnam	66,08	4,43
Thailand	65,86	1,67
Palestine	63,26	-7,79
Tajikistan	62,35	-17,03
Saudi Arabia	60,67	17,11
Maldives	58,13	13,25
Korea DPR	57,90	-22,60
Malaysia	56,91	20,46
Iraq	56,64	10,83
Singapore	49,65	25,29
Uzbekistan	45,77	17,65
Yemen	41,03	2,95
Jordan	39,48	-12,76
Oman	32,76	-7,11
United Arab Emirates	31,23	-7,64
Hong Kong	28,49	-23,81
Myanmar	24,86	-36,80
Nepal	23,01	16,06
Syria	22,97	3,80
Indonesia	22,78	-35,19
Mongolia	14,76	12,34
China PR	14,22	-3,88
Iran	12,70	4,90
Qatar	12,39	8,37
Australia	7,75	-6,30
Korea Republic	7,04	2,63
Chinese Taipei	6,74	-12,27
Bangladesh	4,01	-0,23
Japan	3,90	2,15
Guam	3,53	-5,88
Cambodia	2,55	0,72
Sri Lanka	0,54	0,18

Play-off qualification AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 29 (or 30) to 40

Sri Lanka	99,46	-0,18
Cambodia	97,45	-0,72
Guam	96,47	5,89
Bangladesh	95,98	0,22
Chinese Taipei	93,26	12,31
Mongolia	85,19	-12,39
Nepal	76,98	-16,06
Indonesia	76,76	42,19
Myanmar	75,03	38,01
Hong Kong	71,36	24,25
Yemen	57,16	-3,89
Singapore	47,81	-27,46
Maldives	40,58	-13,99
Malaysia	39,88	-21,20
Afghanistan	29,04	-7,32
Turkmenistan	19,10	0,11
India	16,93	-2,09
Philippines	12,80	-3,37
Vietnam	9,32	-0,94
Palestine	7,76	-4,51
Saudi Arabia	7,57	6,57
Kyrgyzstan	6,91	3,67
Lebanon	6,54	4,58
Thailand	4,77	-10,94
Uzbekistan	3,33	2,96
Kuwait	2,77	1,62
Bahrain	2,02	-2,99
United Arab Emirates	0,84	-1,51
Iraq	0,77	0,30
Tajikistan	0,72	-4,98
Korea DPR	0,46	-3,79
Oman	0,30	-0,10
Jordan	0,20	-0,48
Syria	0,16	0,06
Qatar	0,05	0,05
Australia	0,02	0,01
Iran	0,02	0,02
Korea Republic	0,01	0,01
China PR	0	-0,04
Japan	0	0

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.