CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (September 2019)

The first two matchdays for the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

The day before the first matches would be played CONCACAF announced that this tournament will also serve as qualification for the Gold Cup 2021. But hey, you don't hear me complaining, at least they announced it :)


The top-2 from each group in league A and the winner from each group in league B qualify directly for the continental showpiece (12 teams in total). 

The 4 group thirds from league A, the 4 group runners-up from league B and the 4 group winners of league C continue in two rounds of home-and-away play-offs. 
First the 4 group winners from league C play against the 4 runners-up from league B. The winners of these 4 play-offs play against the 4 group thirds from league A in the second qualifying round.
As it is unknown yet, I've assumed for the simulation that there's a random draw in each group of 4 teams to form the 4 play-offs in both qualification rounds.

The first qualification round will be played in March 2020. The second round follows -together with the CNL-finals (originally scheduled in March)- in June 2020. They will in all probability count for the June 2020 ranking, the seeding ranking for the World Cup qualification for CONCACAF-teams.

As the CNL now serves as direct qualification for the Gold Cup it is no more than logical that the I-factor of the CNL-matches is upgraded to 25 (instead of the regular 15 for Nations League group matches).

See here for more information about the CNL and the results of the initial simulations before the tournament started.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the whole CNL competition -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A-1	1st	2nd	3rd
USA	60,03	38,59	1,38
Canada	39,97	60,03	0,00
Cuba	0,00	1,38	98,62
group A-2	1st	2nd	3rd
Mexico	93,92	5,19	0,89
Panama	5,08	81,38	13,54
Bermuda	1,00	13,43	85,57
group A-3	1st	2nd	3rd
Honduras	75,26	11,23	13,51
Martinique	15,10	57,75	27,15
Trinidad and Tobago	9,64	31,02	59,34
group A-4	1st	2nd	3rd
Costa Rica	69,44	17,64	12,92
Curacao	24,56	65,58	9,86
Haiti	6,00	16,78	77,22

group B-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
French Guyana	54,85	31,25	12,44	1,46
Grenada	36,88	40,58	20,19	2,35
St. Kitts and Nevis	7,16	22,01	45,52	25,31
Belize	1,11	6,16	21,85	70,88
group B-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
El Salvador	55,37	35,74	7,34	1,55
Dominican Republic	35,71	42,12	17,52	4,65
St. Lucia	8,15	17,39	51,67	22,79
Montserrat	0,77	4,75	23,47	71,01
group B-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Jamaica	98,45	1,48	0,07	0,00
Guyana	0,68	48,98	46,68	3,66
Antigua and Barbuda	0,87	48,95	45,88	4,30
Aruba	0,00	0,59	7,37	92,04
group B-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Suriname	79,34	16,91	3,46	0,29
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	16,55	47,54	30,25	5,66
Nicaragua	3,71	29,56	46,43	20,30
Dominica	0,40	5,99	19,86	73,75

group C-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cayman Islands	51,96	41,95	5,13	0,96
Barbados	45,78	45,67	7,73	0,82
US Virgin Islands	1,68	9,00	65,28	24,04
St. Martin	0,58	3,38	21,86	74,18

group C-2	1st	2nd	3rd
Bahamas	65,35	26,37	8,28
Bonaire	30,82	62,19	6,99
British Virgin Islands	3,83	11,44	84,73
group C-3	1st	2nd	3rd
Guatemala	99,90	0,10	0,00
Puerto Rico	0,10	92,44	7,46
Anguilla	0,00	7,46	92,54
group C-4	1st	2nd	3rd
Guadeloupe	99,24	0,76	0,00
St. Maarten	0,42	59,34	40,24
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,34	39,90	59,76

The performance in the Final Four. In the last 3 columns the difference in procent-point compared to the initial simulations:

Final Four	1st	2nd	semis	diff 1st	diff 2nd	diff semis
Mexico	57,41	17,15	19,36	3,91	0,59	1,13
USA	14,19	15,44	30,40	-4,03	-2,40	-4,88
Costa Rica	13,03	28,24	28,17	1,03	4,07	3,47
Honduras	6,67	17,54	51,05	2,16	5,02	10,20
Canada	4,96	8,51	26,50	1,81	3,56	7,57
Curacao	1,18	4,98	18,40	0,93	3,34	13,68
Haiti	0,76	2,05	3,19	-3,86	-9,67	-12,99
Panama	0,74	1,12	3,22	-1,31	-2,09	-2,66
Martinique	0,69	3,13	11,28	-0,42	-1,61	-8,78
Trinidad and Tobago	0,35	1,70	7,59	-0,14	-0,68	-5,75
Bermuda	0,02	0,14	0,84	0,01	0,03	0,39
Cuba	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,09	-0,16	-1,38

Then the Gold Cup 2021 qualification. Presented are the probabilities to:
- lose in the first qualification round
- lose in the second qualification round
- win the second qualification round (qualify for GC)
- qualify for GC directly
- total chance to qualify for GC.
Teams are ordered by the last column.

team	q1	q2	win q2	direct	total Q
Canada	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00	100,00
Mexico	0,00	0,15	0,74	99,11	99,85
USA	0,00	0,30	1,08	98,62	99,70
Jamaica	0,36	0,37	0,75	98,45	99,20
Costa Rica	0,00	3,07	9,85	87,08	96,93
Honduras	0,00	3,95	9,56	86,49	96,05
Curacao	0,00	3,97	5,89	90,14	96,03
Panama	0,00	4,31	9,23	86,46	95,69
Martinique	0,00	10,02	17,13	72,85	89,98
Suriname	7,01	5,37	4,53	79,34	83,87
Haiti	0,00	21,17	56,05	22,78	78,83
Trinidad and Tobago	0,00	25,01	34,33	40,66	74,99
El Salvador	10,77	10,29	14,68	55,37	70,05
French Guyana	12,47	10,35	8,43	54,85	63,28
Bermuda	0,00	40,31	45,26	14,43	59,69
Cuba	0,00	50,17	48,45	1,38	49,83
Guatemala	24,89	28,68	46,33	0,00	46,33
Dominican Republic	20,12	13,91	8,09	35,71	43,80
Grenada	21,21	13,12	6,25	36,88	43,13
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	23,80	16,35	7,39	16,55	23,94
Guadeloupe	50,92	31,05	17,27	0,00	17,27
St. Kitts and Nevis	9,32	7,53	5,16	7,16	12,32
St. Lucia	9,32	5,70	2,37	8,15	10,52
Antigua and Barbuda	22,72	16,59	9,64	0,87	10,51
Nicaragua	12,91	10,06	6,59	3,71	10,30
Guyana	22,95	16,90	9,13	0,68	9,81
Barbados	27,18	13,03	5,57	0,00	5,57
Cayman Islands	36,57	12,08	3,31	0,00	3,31
Bahamas	49,11	13,44	2,80	0,00	2,80
Belize	3,24	1,88	1,04	1,11	2,15
Bonaire	22,11	6,87	1,84	0,00	1,84
Dominica	3,53	1,70	0,76	0,40	1,16
Montserrat	3,54	0,97	0,24	0,77	1,01
British Virgin Islands	3,17	0,54	0,12	0,00	0,12
Aruba	0,37	0,16	0,06	0,00	0,06
US Virgin Islands	1,31	0,33	0,04	0,00	0,04
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,24	0,08	0,02	0,00	0,02
Puerto Rico	0,06	0,03	0,01	0,00	0,01
St. Maarten	0,34	0,07	0,01	0,00	0,01
St. Martin	0,46	0,12	0,00	0,00	0,00
Anguilla	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00

Finally a preview of the June 2020 ranking for CONCACAF teams, ordered by average ranking position.

team	hex	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4
Mexico	100,00	0	0	0	0
USA	100,00	0	0	0	0
Costa Rica	100,00	0	0	0	0
Jamaica	100,00	0	0	0	0
Honduras	94,59	5,41	0	0	0
Canada	33,97	66,03	0	0	0
--------------------------------------
El Salvador	41,58	58,42	0	0	0
Panama	18,67	81,33	0	0	0
Curacao	10,48	89,52	0	0	0
Haiti	0,71	99,29	0	0	0
Trinidad and Tobago	0	100,00	0	0	0
Antigua and Barbuda	0	96,97	3,03	0	0
Guatemala	0	93,66	6,34	0	0
St. Kitts and Nevis	0	60,09	39,91	0	0
--------------------------------------
Suriname	0	36,78	63,22	0	0
Nicaragua	0	11,05	88,95	0	0
Dominican Republic	0	1,42	98,53	0,05	0
Grenada	0	0,01	95,32	4,67	0
Barbados	0	0,01	88,98	11,01	0
Bermuda	0	0	89,25	10,75	0
Belize	0	0,01	62,64	37,35	0
St. Lucia	0	0	57,02	42,98	0
--------------------------------------
Guyana	0	0	48,52	51,48	0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0	0	46,07	53,93	0
Cuba	0	0	9,50	90,50	0
Puerto Rico	0	0	0,28	99,72	0
Dominica	0	0	2,28	97,70	0,02
Cayman Islands	0	0	0,14	91,62	8,24
Montserrat	0	0	0,01	97,63	2,36
Aruba	0	0	0,01	71,22	28,77
--------------------------------------
Bahamas	0	0	0	19,37	80,63
Turks and Caicos Islands	0	0	0	0,04	99,96
US Virgin Islands	0	0	0	14,78	85,22
British Virgin Islands	0	0	0	4,85	95,15
Anguilla	0	0	0	0,35	99,65

We will see a close fight for the final spot in the hex between Canada and El Salvador. Panama and Curacao are not that far away in the ranking either.

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.