I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between July 22nd and today the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-07-22 Djibouti - Somalia 1:0 (in Djibouti)
2019-08-14 Dominican Republic - Guatemala 0:0 (in Dominican Republic)
2019-08-28 Oman - Yemen 1:0 (in Oman)
2019-08-29 Chinese Taipei - Guam 3:0 (closed door match in Chinese Taipei)
2019-08-30 China PR - Myanmar 4:1 (closed door match in China PR)
2019-09-04 Burkina Faso - Libya 1:0 (in Morocco)
2019-09-08 Morocco - Burkina Faso 1:0 (in Morocco)
Included are all other friendlies, final part of the Indian Ocean Island Games, WAFF-cup, qualifiers for CHAN 2020 and of course all matches played in the September FIFA window: qualifiers for EURO, Gold Cup (aka CONCACAF Nations League) and World Cup (Asia and Africa). In total 221 matches count for this ranking.
.
See here for 'my inclusion rules'.
Note that all matches played in the CONCACAF Nations League use an I-factor of 25 instead of the regular 15, because they double as qualification for the Gold Cup.
We will see how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)
Best movers:
13 - Grenada
11 - Guatemala
10 - Cayman Islands
Worst movers:
-11 - Nicaragua, Eswatini
-10 - Myanmar
Best movers in the top 50:
5 - Jamaica
4 - Republic of Ireland, Russia
-5 - Iceland
-4 - Northern Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina
One team will improve their best ever ranking:
Kosovo (119 - 120 in July 2019)
One team returns to their lowest ranking:
US Virgin Islands (202 in February 2008)
Three teams will drop to new lows:
Sri Lanka (203 - 202 in April 2019)
Eritrea (208 - 207 in April 2018)
Anguilla (210 - 209 in April 2015)
September 2019 rank - Team - September 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Belgium | 1752.00 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | France | 1725.25 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Brazil | 1718.63 | -1 | -7 |
| 4 | England | 1661.82 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Portugal | 1642.77 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Uruguay | 1639.14 | -1 | 2 |
| 7 | Spain | 1631.10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Croatia | 1625.47 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Colombia | 1621.88 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Argentina | 1614.46 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Switzerland | 1604.15 | 0 | -1 |
| 12 | Mexico | 1603.37 | 0 | -1 |
| 13 | Netherlands | 1586.35 | 3 | 17 |
| 14 | Denmark | 1583.76 | -1 | -5 |
| 15 | Italy | 1583.35 | 1 | 14 |
| 16 | Germany | 1580.28 | -1 | -2 |
| 17 | Chile | 1576.25 | -3 | -7 |
| 18 | Sweden | 1559.67 | 0 | 2 |
| 19 | Peru | 1551.45 | 0 | -1 |
| 20 | Senegal | 1546.43 | 0 | -4 |
| 21 | USA | 1544.86 | 1 | -3 |
| 22 | Poland | 1532.37 | -2 | -18 |
| 23 | Wales | 1522.10 | 1 | 8 |
| 23 | Iran | 1521.95 | 0 | 4 |
| 25 | Ukraine | 1516.44 | 0 | 3 |
| 26 | Venezuela | 1506.05 | 0 | 1 |
| 27 | Austria | 1503.01 | 0 | 5 |
| 28 | Republic of Ireland | 1495.82 | 4 | 7 |
| 29 | Tunisia | 1492.89 | 0 | -3 |
| 29 | Slovakia | 1492.64 | 2 | 2 |
| 31 | Romania | 1490.27 | -3 | -7 |
| 31 | Japan | 1489.94 | 2 | 9 |
| 33 | Northern Ireland | 1488.29 | -4 | -8 |
| 34 | Nigeria | 1481.53 | -1 | 1 |
| 35 | Serbia | 1475.98 | 0 | -1 |
| 36 | Turkey | 1474.68 | 1 | 8 |
| 37 | Korea Republic | 1470.06 | 0 | 3 |
| 38 | Algeria | 1466.31 | 2 | 3 |
| 39 | Morocco | 1463.32 | 2 | 2 |
| 40 | Paraguay | 1462.32 | -1 | -2 |
| 41 | Iceland | 1461.39 | -5 | -12 |
| 42 | Russia | 1454.86 | 4 | 19 |
| 43 | Costa Rica | 1442.12 | 1 | -3 |
| 44 | Czech Republic | 1441.16 | -1 | -7 |
| 44 | Australia | 1440.65 | 2 | 5 |
| 46 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1438.03 | -4 | -15 |
| 47 | Norway | 1435.39 | 3 | 6 |
| 47 | Jamaica | 1434.97 | 5 | 10 |
| 49 | Egypt | 1430.94 | 0 | 0 |
| 50 | Ghana | 1428.67 | 0 | 0 |
| 51 | Hungary | 1424.79 | -6 | -17 |
| 52 | Scotland | 1414.91 | -4 | -18 |
| 53 | Cameroon | 1408.79 | 0 | 0 |
| 54 | Finland | 1397.72 | 3 | 4 |
| 55 | Congo DR | 1395.40 | 1 | 0 |
| 56 | Cote d'Ivoire | 1394.13 | 1 | 0 |
| 56 | Montenegro | 1394.09 | -1 | -7 |
| 58 | Mali | 1391.25 | 1 | 2 |
| 59 | Slovenia | 1390.06 | 4 | 27 |
| 60 | Greece | 1381.71 | -6 | -21 |
| 61 | Burkina Faso | 1381.33 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | Bulgaria | 1377.03 | -2 | -11 |
| 62 | Qatar | 1376.79 | 0 | 2 |
| 64 | Albania | 1372.46 | 0 | 10 |
| 65 | Ecuador | 1370.45 | 1 | 11 |
| 66 | United Arab Emirates | 1366.84 | -1 | 7 |
| 67 | Honduras | 1358.62 | 0 | 9 |
| 68 | China PR | 1339.84 | 3 | 7 |
| 69 | North Macedonia | 1338.85 | 2 | 6 |
| 70 | South Africa | 1331.14 | 0 | -7 |
| 71 | Saudi Arabia | 1328.73 | -3 | -13 |
| 72 | Bolivia | 1327.40 | 1 | -5 |
| 72 | El Salvador | 1326.83 | -4 | -15 |
| 74 | Guinea | 1325.24 | 1 | 0 |
| 75 | Canada | 1321.74 | 3 | 10 |
| 76 | Curacao | 1320.01 | 3 | 11 |
| 77 | Panama | 1316.37 | -3 | -15 |
| 78 | Cape Verde Islands | 1315.31 | -2 | -4 |
| 79 | Iraq | 1314.44 | -2 | -1 |
| 80 | Uganda | 1305.37 | 0 | 0 |
| 81 | Zambia | 1299.03 | 0 | 0 |
| 82 | Belarus | 1294.33 | 2 | 8 |
| 83 | Benin | 1293.07 | -1 | -2 |
| 84 | Oman | 1292.35 | 3 | 15 |
| 85 | Syria | 1280.01 | 2 | 3 |
| 86 | Israel | 1277.20 | -2 | -9 |
| 86 | Haiti | 1277.16 | -3 | -11 |
| 88 | Uzbekistan | 1272.31 | -4 | -14 |
| 88 | Gabon | 1272.19 | 2 | 0 |
| 90 | Congo | 1265.41 | 1 | 0 |
| 91 | Georgia | 1264.22 | 3 | 9 |
| 92 | Cyprus | 1260.62 | 1 | 3 |
| 93 | Luxembourg | 1254.53 | -2 | -10 |
| 94 | Lebanon | 1253.13 | -7 | -24 |
| 95 | Madagascar | 1249.44 | 1 | -2 |
| 96 | Armenia | 1242.13 | 2 | 12 |
| 97 | Kyrgyzstan | 1237.49 | -2 | -15 |
| 97 | Jordan | 1237.43 | 2 | 8 |
| 99 | Vietnam | 1230.56 | -2 | -1 |
| 100 | Palestine | 1222.97 | 2 | -1 |
| 101 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1222.15 | 0 | -4 |
| 102 | Estonia | 1211.93 | -2 | -16 |
| 102 | Libya | 1211.65 | 3 | 5 |
| 104 | India | 1206.97 | -1 | -7 |
| 104 | Bahrain | 1206.55 | 5 | 19 |
| 106 | Mauritania | 1206.18 | 0 | 1 |
| 107 | Niger | 1201.38 | -3 | -8 |
| 107 | Kenya | 1200.69 | 0 | 0 |
| 109 | Faroe Islands | 1191.28 | -1 | -9 |
| 109 | Azerbaijan | 1190.97 | 0 | 3 |
| 111 | Central African Republic | 1184.32 | 0 | 0 |
| 112 | Mozambique | 1181.30 | 4 | 18 |
| 113 | Korea DPR | 1175.88 | 5 | 22 |
| 114 | Thailand | 1174.93 | 1 | 10 |
| 115 | Tajikistan | 1173.93 | 4 | 22 |
| 116 | Kazakhstan | 1169.29 | -4 | -5 |
| 117 | Sierra Leone | 1166.97 | -3 | -5 |
| 118 | Zimbabwe | 1164.95 | -6 | -9 |
| 119 | Kosovo | 1164.38 | 1 | 15 |
| 120 | Namibia | 1162.14 | 1 | 14 |
| 121 | Angola | 1161.45 | 1 | 17 |
| 122 | New Zealand | 1157.36 | -5 | 0 |
| 123 | Guinea-Bissau | 1155.01 | 0 | 12 |
| 124 | Togo | 1140.19 | 4 | 13 |
| 124 | Malawi | 1140.15 | 2 | 9 |
| 126 | Antigua and Barbuda | 1132.20 | -2 | -4 |
| 127 | Philippines | 1129.62 | -1 | -1 |
| 128 | Sudan | 1111.27 | 1 | 5 |
| 129 | Chinese Taipei | 1105.82 | -4 | -26 |
| 130 | Rwanda | 1103.88 | 3 | 16 |
| 131 | Lithuania | 1094.44 | -1 | -7 |
| 131 | Turkmenistan | 1093.76 | 1 | 3 |
| 133 | Guatemala | 1088.53 | 11 | 17 |
| 134 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 1086.08 | -3 | -10 |
| 135 | Equatorial Guinea | 1083.82 | 4 | 10 |
| 136 | Tanzania | 1083.38 | 1 | 8 |
| 137 | Yemen | 1077.96 | 5 | 5 |
| 137 | Lesotho | 1077.82 | 7 | 6 |
| 139 | Andorra | 1074.94 | -3 | -7 |
| 139 | Latvia | 1074.61 | -5 | -11 |
| 141 | Solomon Islands | 1072.78 | 1 | 0 |
| 142 | Suriname | 1068.71 | 9 | 24 |
| 143 | Hong Kong | 1068.09 | -4 | -6 |
| 144 | Burundi | 1065.47 | 4 | 4 |
| 145 | Myanmar | 1063.68 | -10 | -20 |
| 146 | Afghanistan | 1061.53 | 3 | 4 |
| 147 | Comoros | 1059.50 | -1 | -11 |
| 148 | Botswana | 1058.99 | -1 | -10 |
| 148 | Nicaragua | 1058.87 | -11 | -16 |
| 150 | Eswatini | 1055.49 | -11 | -19 |
| 151 | Ethiopia | 1053.69 | -1 | 5 |
| 152 | Liberia | 1052.63 | 0 | 9 |
| 153 | Maldives | 1046.78 | -1 | 3 |
| 154 | New Caledonia | 1035.12 | 0 | 0 |
| 155 | Kuwait | 1032.79 | 1 | 11 |
| 156 | Dominican Republic | 1030.61 | -1 | 3 |
| 157 | Singapore | 1019.10 | 5 | 20 |
| 158 | Malaysia | 1014.74 | 1 | 6 |
| 159 | Tahiti | 1014.27 | -1 | 0 |
| 160 | Grenada | 1000.82 | 13 | 28 |
| 161 | Mauritius | 999.04 | -4 | -20 |
| 161 | Nepal | 998.76 | 5 | 4 |
| 163 | Fiji | 996.27 | 0 | 0 |
| 163 | Vanuatu | 995.62 | 0 | 0 |
| 165 | Papua New Guinea | 990.55 | 3 | 0 |
| 166 | Gambia | 987.67 | -5 | -18 |
| 167 | Bermuda | 987.10 | 7 | 15 |
| 167 | Indonesia | 986.84 | -7 | -21 |
| 169 | Belize | 982.99 | -2 | -11 |
| 170 | Cambodia | 982.25 | 0 | -6 |
| 171 | Barbados | 981.24 | -8 | -15 |
| 172 | Moldova | 977.99 | -1 | -7 |
| 173 | South Sudan | 976.87 | -4 | -12 |
| 174 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 970.22 | 2 | 16 |
| 175 | St. Lucia | 968.65 | -3 | -6 |
| 176 | Guyana | 960.43 | 2 | 7 |
| 177 | Chad | 949.58 | -2 | -6 |
| 178 | Cuba | 940.53 | 1 | -9 |
| 179 | Malta | 932.61 | 2 | -6 |
| 180 | Dominica | 931.80 | -4 | -22 |
| 181 | Puerto Rico | 929.43 | -1 | -11 |
| 182 | Liechtenstein | 928.04 | 0 | 6 |
| 183 | Mongolia | 923.31 | 4 | 9 |
| 184 | Macau | 922.10 | -2 | 0 |
| 185 | Bhutan | 915.97 | 1 | 0 |
| 186 | Djibouti | 912.66 | 9 | 17 |
| 187 | Bangladesh | 912.49 | -5 | -10 |
| 187 | Laos | 912.07 | 1 | 0 |
| 187 | Montserrat | 911.69 | 9 | 17 |
| 190 | Cook Islands | 908.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 191 | Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe | 905.28 | -6 | -15 |
| 192 | Brunei Darussalam | 903.90 | 0 | 0 |
| 193 | American Samoa | 900.27 | 1 | 0 |
| 194 | Cayman Islands | 895.38 | 10 | 28 |
| 195 | Samoa | 894.26 | 2 | 0 |
| 196 | Guam | 891.51 | -6 | -16 |
| 197 | Aruba | 890.24 | -8 | -19 |
| 198 | Gibraltar | 889.46 | 0 | -4 |
| 199 | Seychelles | 888.28 | -7 | -16 |
| 200 | Timor-Leste | 879.43 | 1 | 0 |
| 200 | Somalia | 879.12 | 2 | 11 |
| 202 | US Virgin Islands | 875.24 | -3 | -13 |
| 203 | Sri Lanka | 871.51 | -3 | -14 |
| 204 | Pakistan | 866.81 | 0 | 0 |
| 204 | British Virgin Islands | 866.69 | 0 | 0 |
| 206 | Tonga | 861.81 | 1 | 0 |
| 206 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 861.56 | 1 | 0 |
| 208 | Eritrea | 855.56 | -6 | -12 |
| 209 | Bahamas | 854.65 | 1 | 0 |
| 210 | Anguilla | 848.94 | -1 | -8 |
| 211 | San Marino | 834.51 | 0 | -4 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Ed. By the fixtures of El Salvador and Panama until the end of the year. If Canada beat USA in Toronto they are in pratically in the hex, right?
ReplyDeleteThe hex seeding is based on the June 2020 ranking. CONCACAF has announced that in March and June next year extra qualification play-offs for Gold Cup 2021 will be played.
DeleteI only want to say: there are still quite some high-valued CONCACAF matches scheduled before the June ranking.
Soon I will post new simulations about the situation in CONCACAF, taking these qualifiers into account. That should shed some numerical light on your question.
Thank you so much for posting this dude! :)
ReplyDeleteI don't think that concacaf group stage matches are treated as qualifying for gold cup 2021. If you take a look to pdf about calculation from fifa.com, it is stated that nations league playoffs have importance 25 while group stage only 15. In such case uefa nations league played at autumn 2018 would also take 25 as factor. But it does not act as real qualifying event, it just forms playoff paths. It is similar to concacaf nations league. Besides, what importance factor was used last year when then played qualifying matches to determine which team will play in which league? I don't think it was 25, but it also served as qualification for gold cup 2019.
ReplyDeleteWell, there's this from CONCACAF.
DeleteUNL qualifies only for qualification play-offs for EURO 2020, CNL now qualifies directly for the final tournament itself in 2021. As indeed did the CNL qualifiers last year for the Gold Cup 2019. Those matches then had an I-factor of 15.
I think CONCACAF has in the meantime succesfully appealed to FIFA that the I-factor in this situation should be higher than 15.
Indeed, given the 2019-09-19 ranking, all CONCACAF Nations League qualifying matches have an importance of 25.
DeleteThe following matches are not included:
- Saudi Arabia v Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan in the WAFF on 4, 7 and 10 August
- St. Vincent & the Grenadines v Trinidad and Tobago on 12 August
- St. Kitts & Nevis v Antigua and Barbuda on 25 and 27 August
- Oman v Yemen on 28 August
- Belize v St. Vincent & the Grenadines on 30 August and 1 September
- China v Myanmar on 30 August
- United Arab Emirates v Dominican Republic on 30 August
- United Arab Emirates v Sri Lanka on 31 August
- Burkina Faso v Libya on 4 September
- Montenegro v Hungary on 5 September
In addition, Taiwan v Guam was included, but seeing as Taiwan used 11 substitutes it will surely be excluded for the next ranking.
This gives all the right rankings, apart from Guatemala and Cuba that both have 1 point less. Still looking why that is. They have 1088.53 and 940,53 respectively, but are listed as 1088 and 940 in the new ranking. Possibly a match was or matches were included/excluded that were played for a previous ranking such that they both lose points as a result.
Adding Dominican Republic v Guatemala on 15 August solves the ranking for Guatemala.
DeleteAnd, it's going very far back, but if we add Cuba 2-2 Bermuda on 25 February (Bermuda used 7 substitutes though), then the numbers are correct. That's one possible way to get the same numbers.
DeleteHi Homer
DeleteIn the Sept 19 Rankings Fifa is showing there were 212 games in total played: 78 Friendlies, 74 Continental Qualifiers and 60 World Cup Qualifying Games. Here's the link.
https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/news/belgium-stay-top-kosovo-reach-record-high
Thus far I could only come up with 75 friendlies that are included with three games unaccounted for. Here's what I have so far. 30 African Nations Championships Qualifying, 11 WAFF Championship games, 1 Indian Ocean Island game and 33 regular friendly games. Could you compare this with the list that you have? I already have the Dominican Rep.- Guatemala and the Taiwan-Guam matches included.
Thanks
It seems you're missing 3 WAFF matches then, because these are my totals:
Delete33 - "Real" Friendlies
30 - African Nations Championship
1 - Indian Ocean Games
14 - West Asian Football Federation Championship
Total "Friendlies": 78
24 - CONCACAF Nations League (excluding matches in which a non-FIFA member played)
50 - European Championship Qualifying
32 - World Cup Qualifiers - Asia
28 - World Cup Qualifiers - Africa
134 "Majors"
134 + 78 = 212
All but the matches involving Saudi Arabia are apparently considered by FIFA, otherwise the numbers don't match.
The only thing that is still unclear is the Cuba "anomaly". Either they included the Bermuda 2-2 match in February with this ranking (this gets 940 instead of 941), or it is a combination of their other matches somehow that cause the tiny difference (in this ranking period they only played Canada in two matches), or otherwise it could get very nasty if it is some other combination that would cause Cuba to lose more points somewhere else, I'm still looking into that. But in the latter case it is likely it was caused by another match of one of their opponents somewhere. What is almost certain is that whatever match or matches, the match or matches ended in a draw. A win would cause too much of a point shift for them or their opponents.
Nice work Homer, thank you for the research !
DeleteApparently Saudi Arabia showed up with a B-team in the West Asian Championship (the results there probably were a pointer for that already). And indeed, the last match of the Cook Islands was played more than 4 years ago, so they are removed from the ranking. FIFA notes that for the first match Cook Islands will play in the future, their FIFA-points will still be 908.
In summary the following adaptations on my assumptions has been made:
FIFA excluded (and I included):
2019-08-04 Saudi Arabia - Kuwait 1:2 West Asian Championship
2019-08-07 Saudi Arabia - Bahrain 0:0 West Asian Championship
2019-08-10 Saudi Arabia - Jordan 0:3 West Asian Championship
2019-08-11 St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Trinidad and Tobago 1:0 Friendly
2019-08-25 St. Kitts and Nevis - Antigua and Barbuda 3:0 Friendly
2019-08-27 St. Kitts and Nevis - Antigua and Barbuda 4:3 Friendly
2019-08-30 Belize - St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1:1 Friendly
2019-08-30 United Arab Emirates - Dominican Republic 4:0 Friendly
2019-08-31 United Arab Emirates - Sri Lanka 5:1 Friendly
2019-09-01 Belize - St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1:0 Friendly
2019-09-05 Montenegro - Hungary 2:1 Friendly
FIFA included (and I excluded):
2019-08-14 Dominican Republic - Guatemala 0:0 Friendly
2019-08-29 Chinese Taipei - Guam 3:0 Friendly (closed door match)
And to solve Cuba's points total in the September ranking:
2019-02-25 Cuba - Bermuda 2:2 Friendly (closed door match)
So both Netherlands and Italy leapfrogged Germany. Pot A for WC 2022 is now: Belgium, France, England, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Switzerland, Netherlands, Denmark, and Italy. Pot B has: Germany, Sweden, Poland, Wales, Ukraine, Austria, Ireland, Slovakia, Romania, and Northern Ireland. This - of course - assuming ten groups. We'll find out on September 24th.
ReplyDeleteHi Ed
ReplyDeleteI'm having trouble coming up with the July 25 calculation ranking points for both El Salvador and Guyana. I need El Salvador's ranking points calculations from Saturday October 13, 2018 to Tuesday June 25, 2019 and Guyana Thursday September 6, 2018 to Wednesday June 26, 2019. Also what were the point calculations in the match up between Barbados and Grenada back on Monday March 4, 2019?
Thanks
SLV:
Deletedate - opponent - I - pts before - pts exchange - pts after
2019-06-25 - HON - 35 - 1359,961 - -18,460 - 1341,501
2019-06-21 - JAM - 35 - 1358,104 - 1,856 - 1359,961
2019-06-17 - CUW - 35 - 1341,941 - 16,163 - 1358,104
2019-06-09 - JPN - 10 - 1345,571 - -3,630 - 1341,941
2019-06-02 - HAI - 5 - 1343,641 - 1,930 - 1345,571
2019-03-26 - PER - 10 - 1336,930 - 6,711 - 1343,641
2019-03-23 - JAM - 15 - 1328,348 - 8,582 - 1336,930
2019-03-06 - GUA - 5 - 1327,023 - 1,325 - 1328,348
2018-11-20 - HAI - 10 - 1322,975 - 4,049 - 1327,023
2018-11-16 - BER - 15 - 1335,276 - -12,301 - 1322,975
2018-10-13 - BRB - 15 - 1331,968 - 3,307 - 1335,276
GUY:
date - opponent - I - pts before - pts exchange - pts after
2019-06-26 - TRI - 35 - 943,669 - 8,870 - 952,538
2019-06-22 - PAN - 35 - 950,131 - -6,462 - 943,669
2019-06-18 - USA - 35 - 954,038 - -3,907 - 950,131
2019-06-06 - BER - 10 - 959,042 - -5,004 - 954,038
2019-03-23 - BLZ - 15 - 950,811 - 8,231 - 959,042
2018-10-13 - TCA - 15 - 936,971 - 6,422 - 943,393
2018-09-06 - BRB - 15 - 936,000 - 0,971 - 936,971
BRB
date - opponent - I - pts before - pts exchange - pts after
2019-03-24 - NCA - 15 - 1002,327 - -5,845 - 996,482
2019-03-08 - DMA - 5 - 1000,065 - 2,262 - 1002,327
2019-03-06 - LCA - 5 - 997,695 - 2,370 - 1000,065
2019-03-04 - GRN - 5 - 995,327 - 2,368 - 997,695
2019-02-28 - VIN - 5 - 998,077 - -2,750 - 995,327
2018-11-18 - VIR - 15 - 999,592 - 5,903 - 1005,495
2018-10-13 - SLV - 15 - 1002,899 - -3,307 - 999,592
2018-09-06 - GUY - 15 - 1003,871 - -0,971 - 1002,899
On Dec 6th 2018 the match between GUY and BRB from Sep 6 2018 (originally 2:2) was awarded 3:0 to Guyana. The points of both team were on Dec 6th adapted to reflect this. Points exchanged in matches played before December 6th 2018 remained unchanged. Just the points of GUY and BRB were adapted (GUY +7,4182634; BRB -7,4182634) and used in the next match of each team. You can see this in the tables above.
The correction was determined as (the points-exchange of the 3:0 win, calculated with points of both teams on DECEMBER 6) minus (the original points-exchange of the 2:2 draw, calculated with points of both teams on September 6): 8,389517 - 0,971253 = 7,4182634.
Thank You Ed
ReplyDeleteAfter one year, it is interesting to note the difference in points between the first ranked team and the last. At the starting of the new system it was 1600-868=732. Now the "distance" is about 917 points, with an important increment of about the 25%. If the constants I for the importance of the tournaments will remain the same, after the next World Cup probably the movements in the ranking will become very small. Right now, whith the interval between teams still artificially low, San Marino is penalized for having played more competitive matches in this year, despite they play against stronger opponents in europe respect other Concacaf or AFC nations.
ReplyDeleteI was confused to find the Cook Islands ranked 999th by FIFA until I realised that they haven't played any matches since the 2018 World cup qualifiers in September 2015 (four years ago), so have been removed from the ranking.
ReplyDeleteTrinidad (1222) in your preview while it's 1226 in FIFA's new September ranking.
ReplyDeleteAntigua (1132) => 1137 according to FIFA
Guatemala (1089) => 1088
St.Kitts (1086) => 1081
Dominican Rep. (1031) => 1032
Belize (983) => 981
St.Vincent (970) => 969
Cuba (941) => 940
You don't understand any English ?
DeleteUnless I'm mistaken you mean the bit about your inclusion rules and corrections being needed after FIFA's ranking has been published?
DeleteMy post wasn't meant to ruffle any feathers. I was trying to be helpful. I've tried to help out before (e.g. the July final preview with the discrepancy in El Salvador's points total, etc.). I only bother because I care and the CNL (Hex race) peaked my interest (that's why I'm focussing on Concacaf teams). In future I'll refrain from these sort of posts. I want you to know I appreciate the effort you put in and I'd like to thank you for keeping this site running.
My english isn't very good. How about: https://imgur.com/BRsNF3x
Your comment just stated the obvious, so I didn't recognize it 'as trying to be helpful'. Of course I compare the published ranking with my preview to find these differences immediately. The next, complicated part can be to find possible declarations for the found differences. See the comments of Homer above where he explains them, which is really handy.
ReplyDeleteAnd with all the Anonymouses around here lately, it's hard for me to distinguish between them.
Anyway, you're welcome and... sorry for my rather curt response.