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Thursday, October 17, 2019

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (October 2019)

The matchdays seven and eight in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here, here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 (March), MD4 (June) and MD6 (September).


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- for each UEFA team to qualify for EURO 2020, directly (Qdirect) or via the play-offs (po-semi, po-final and po-win). In column Qtot the total probability to qualify for EURO 2020 as the sum of Qdirect and po-win. Teams are ordered by this column. The two last columns indicate the difference in Qdirect en Qtot (in percentage-points) compared to the simulations after MD6.
team_grp     Qdirect    po-semi    po-final      po-win          Qtot   diff Qdir   diff Qtot
Belgium - I 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 0,00 0,00
Italy - J 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 0,00 0,00
Spain - F 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 0,02 0,02
France - H 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 0,39 0,19
Russia - I 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 0,78 0,58
Ukraine - B 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 1,63 1,14
Turkey - H 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 5,50 4,32
Poland - G 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 8,23 6,10
England - A 99,98 0,02 0,00 0,00 99,98 0,22 0,09
Netherlands - C 99,83 0,17 0,16 0,12 99,95 6,12 2,15
Germany - C 99,53 0,47 0,37 0,27 99,80 1,27 0,58
Austria - G 99,42 0,58 0,29 0,12 99,54 39,70 29,87
Finland - J 99,30 0,70 0,31 0,10 99,40 9,10 7,92
Croatia - E 98,09 1,91 1,51 1,05 99,14 13,33 6,32
Switzerland - D 96,25 3,75 2,95 2,16 98,41 16,22 7,72
Portugal - B 92,12 7,88 6,60 5,34 97,46 -5,33 -1,64
Sweden - F 89,69 10,31 6,23 4,56 94,25 22,65 14,13
Denmark - D 74,66 25,34 19,18 14,58 89,24 8,33 4,70
Czech Republic - A 84,58 15,42 7,06 4,05 88,63 5,91 5,05
Slovakia - E 43,88 56,12 31,00 19,08 62,96 -8,35 -3,31
Wales - E 33,59 66,41 36,73 22,54 56,13 -4,19 -0,14
Serbia - B 7,88 92,12 62,29 45,86 53,74 3,73 1,13
Kosovo - A 15,44 84,56 53,63 33,27 48,71 -6,01 3,04
Republic of Ireland - D 29,09 70,91 29,86 17,02 46,11 -24,42 -19,80
Romania - F 10,02 75,67 49,24 30,19 40,21 -12,66 6,23
Hungary - E 24,44 74,33 37,33 13,38 37,82 -0,79 3,63
Georgia - D 0,00 100,00 70,53 32,47 32,47 -0,13 -0,66
Iceland - H 0,00 100,00 48,80 24,54 24,54 -4,41 -0,59
Norway - F 0,29 99,71 35,81 24,04 24,33 -10,01 -5,95
North Macedonia - G 0,50 99,50 40,21 21,37 21,87 -2,88 -3,11
Bosnia-Herzegovina - J 0,70 99,30 58,01 20,76 21,46 -4,38 -3,46
Northern Ireland - C 0,64 99,31 42,61 15,70 16,34 -7,39 -5,85
Scotland - I 0,00 100,00 54,68 15,23 15,23 -0,76 -3,52
Belarus - C 0,00 100,00 32,38 12,15 12,15 0,00 -7,61
Israel - G 0,06 99,57 36,12 10,36 10,42 -5,69 -2,99
Bulgaria - A 0,00 100,00 32,86 8,95 8,95 -0,09 0,04
Luxembourg - B 0,00 15,85 3,24 0,74 0,74 -0,03 -0,51
Slovenia - G 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,02 -39,36 -39,36
Armenia - J 0,00 0,09 0,01 0,00 0,00 -4,61 -4,80
Albania - H 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -1,48 -1,48
Greece - J 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,11 -0,11
Montenegro - A 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,03 -0,03
Cyprus - I 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,02 -0,02
Azerbaijan - E 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,01
Kazakhstan - I 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Lithuania - B 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Latvia - G 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Estonia - C 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Moldova - H 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Malta - F 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Andorra - H 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Faroe Islands - F 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Gibraltar - D 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Liechtenstein - J 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
San Marino - I 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Winners of this week are Austria and Sweden. Even Spain's last gasp draw hasn't really hurt Sweden's chances to qualify.
Also Finland, Turkey and Switzerland all made more or less sure of qualification.

 Bad week for Slovenia and Republic of Ireland, although the Irish still have the play-offs as a backup.

 A preview of the composition of the play-off paths can be determined by taking the top two from each group with highest probabilities to qualify directly out of the equation and see which teams will qualify for the play-offs in that situation. This is the same situation as one month ago after MD6:

The 4 UNL group winners from league D: Georgia (40), North Macedonia (41), Kosovo (42) and Belarus (43).
Now Finland qualifies directly the 3 remaining UNL group winners from league C: Scotland (25), Norway (26) and Serbia (27).
From league B group winner Bosnia-Herzegovina (13).
From league A all group winners qualify directly.

The following non group-winners (ngw) complete the play-offs:
from league A Iceland (12)
from league B Wales (19), Republic of Ireland (23) and Northern Ireland (24)
from league C Bulgaria (29), Israel (30), Hungary (31) and Romania (32)

League D - 4 group winners
League C - 3 group-winners + 4 non group-winners => draw: 3 ngw's to path A
League B - 1 group-winner + 3 non group-winners
League A - 1 non group-winner

This leads to the following play-off semi finals:

D-path
Georgia - Belarus
North Macedonia - Kosovo

C-path
Scotland - draw from Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary/Romania
Norway - Serbia

B-path
Bosnia-Herzegovina - Northern Ireland
Wales - Republic of Ireland

A-path
Iceland - draw from Hungary/Romania
draw from Bulgaria/Israel - draw from Israel/Hungary

 Now, from the play-off participants Republic of Ireland, Scotland, Hungary and Romania are also EURO-hosts. UEFA has recently published the regulations for the play-offs draw in November. Unfortunately things can become so complicated, that the real rules couldn't be made clear, because they will be dependent on the teams that actually qualify for the play-offs after the last group matches are played. UEFA therefore only states with regard to the positioning of hosts in the play-offs:

 To give a fair chance to all the hosts to qualify to the Final Tournament, the host teams may be allocated to the different paths.

 Note the word 'may'. It isn't even certain that hosts will be separated. 
As in this case paths C or A will have two hosts anyway, UEFA may not even try to separate them to begin with.


 Finally a preview of the pots for the draw of the final tournament EURO 2020, ordered by average overall EURO 2020 qualification ranking position (last column):
team                           pot 1      pot 2      pot 3      pot 4        avg
Belgium 91,35 8,05 0,60 0 2,54
Italy 97,28 2,72 0 0 2,62
England 76,11 22,01 1,86 0 4,95
Ukraine 72,11 27,89 0 0 5,14
Spain 69,68 30,31 0 0,01 5,91
Netherlands 65,01 25,79 9,03 0,12 6,76
-----------------------------
Turkey 56,50 28,26 14,25 0,99 6,82
Germany 29,80 62,94 6,79 0,27 9,24
France 28,61 44,99 26,39 0,01 9,67
Poland 3,70 83,75 8,41 4,14 9,94
Croatia 0 87,00 7,38 4,76 10,46
Russia 8,49 48,85 42,66 0 11,61
-----------------------------
Switzerland 0,09 47,32 47,44 3,56 12,42
Denmark 1,20 47,62 25,82 14,60 13,34
Portugal 0 0,66 91,06 5,74 14,87
Austria 0 12,55 75,26 11,73 15,61
Czech Republic 0,06 1,92 76,87 9,78 16,78
Finland 0 0 33,62 65,78 18,92
-----------------------------
Sweden 0 0,01 40,63 53,61 19,15
Slovakia 0 12,62 11,60 38,74 21,00
Republic of Ireland 0 3,83 24,13 18,15 21,57
Serbia 0 0 7,79 45,95 21,71
Northern Ireland 0 0,21 0,43 15,70 23,98
Kosovo 0,01 0,32 12,22 36,16 24,09
Hungary 0 0,38 13,64 23,80 25,77
Wales 0 0 19,47 36,66 25,89
Albania 0 0 0 0 26,00
Romania 0 0 2,65 37,56 28,81
Iceland 0 0 0 24,54 29,30
Norway 0 0 0 24,33 29,91
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 0 0 21,46 31,83
Slovenia 0 0 0 0,02 32,28
Scotland 0 0 0 15,23 33,27
Georgia 0 0 0 32,47 34,79
North Macedonia 0 0 0 21,87 35,35
Armenia 0 0 0 0 35,79
Cyprus 0 0 0 0 36,45
Israel 0 0 0 10,42 36,96
Greece 0 0 0 0 37,72
Luxembourg 0 0 0 0,74 38,40
Belarus 0 0 0 12,15 38,60
Bulgaria 0 0 0 8,95 40,97
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0 41,23
Montenegro 0 0 0 0 42,04
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 0 44,93
Lithuania 0 0 0 0 46,45
Estonia 0 0 0 0 47,47
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0 48,85
Moldova 0 0 0 0 49,32
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 0 49,42
Malta 0 0 0 0 50,52
Andorra 0 0 0 0 50,56
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0 53,00
San Marino 0 0 0 0 54,00
Latvia 0 0 0 0 55,00

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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32 comments:

  1. CzarOctober 17, 2019 at 10:49 PM

    What happens if two hosts are in the same pot.

    E.g Russia and Denmark likely in Pot 2?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdOctober 17, 2019 at 10:57 PM

      You mean what if two hosts assigned to the same group are also in the same pot ? Probably one of the two will be swapped with the lowest ranked team in pot 1 or the highest ranked team in pot 3.
      This case also isn't made very clear in the recently published regulations for the finals draw.
      UEFA has made it very complicated for themselves to draw this edition of the EURO's, with that pre-assigning of hosts to groups.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousOctober 17, 2019 at 11:23 PM

      Wikipedia:

      "As two host teams from the same group cannot be in the same seeding pot, the UEFA Emergency Panel will decide on the adjustment if necessary, with two possible options (based on the principle that the moves shall have minimal impact on the original seeding):
      - one of the two host teams will be moved up to the higher pot, and the lowest ranked team from the concerned pot is moved down to the lower pot;
      - one of the two host teams will be moved down to the lower pot, and the highest ranked team from the concerned pot is moved up to the higher pot."

      I think moving one of them down would be more fair because they're already playing at least two home games. Moving one up would give them additional benefit of playing teams from pots 2, 3 and 4 even though they're Pot2 themselves. Practically they would both rise to Pot 1 :D

      Delete
    3. CzarOctober 20, 2019 at 1:58 AM

      @Anon, Corrdct. However in Denmark and Russia's case.. having them face a team from pot 1 means they can only meet Belgium.

      All other Pot 1 sides are hosts except Belgium. Ukraine is ruled out because they can not play Russia in the group stages.

      Therefore if Russia or Denmark are forced down into pot 3 that means we already know who will make the group.
      Belgium, Russia, Denmark + Pot 4

      Delete
  2. AnonymousOctober 17, 2019 at 11:09 PM

    One conflict still remains in your last table about final tournament pots: Group D winners will be in top2-pots.

    Matches in October made the picture very much clearer though and after this the pots 1, 2 and 3 could be something like this (and not in official order):

    Pot1
    Belgium
    Italy
    Spain
    England
    Ukraine
    Netherlands

    Pot2
    Germany
    France
    Turkey
    Poland
    Switzerland or Denmark
    Croatia

    Pot3
    Switzerland or Denmark
    Russia
    Portugal
    Austria
    Czech Republic
    Sweden or Finland

    Of course final 2 matches need to be played and especially qualifying groups D and E are very much undetermined.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but Ukraine and Russia can't be in the same group in the final tournament. So if my prediction above happens there wouldn't be any draw for Pot1. Teams would automatically go in to groups as follows:
    A: Italy
    B: Belgium
    C: Netherlands
    D: England
    E: Spain
    F: Ukraine

    So Belgians would be very likely to meet Danes in Denmark and Russians in Russia.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousOctober 18, 2019 at 2:15 AM

      I suspect the Belgians would be more than happy with this arrangement!
      Regarding Portugal in Pot 3, I understand the reasons why they would be there but isn't it usual convention for the title holders to be placed in the 1st pot?

      Delete
    2. tedOctober 18, 2019 at 3:16 PM

      Average Ranking Position per team shows Switzerland, Denmark and Ireland correctly below teams where the top 2 are finalised or more clear cut.

      My understanding by looking at the combined figures there is only a 1.29% chance of whichever of the 3 teams wins the Group finishing in Pot 1. However there is a 98.77% chance of one of the 3 teams finishing in pot 2 and this would make sense if 98.71% is as Group Winner and 0.06% as Group Runner Up (ie top 2 ranked Runners Up).

      Similarly in 97.39% of cases the Group D Runner Up will be in Pot 3 and in 2.55% of cases the Runner Up will be in Pot 4. In about 33.76% of the cases whichever of the 3 teams finishes 3rd in Group D will qualify through the 4 way playoffs.

      This seems reasonable and is very consistent with similar analysis I have seen on other sites.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousOctober 18, 2019 at 7:01 PM

      I think they will put Portugal as top seeds, if qualifies directly, like the holders always does.

      They may not have announced yet because there is a chance to not be a seed if Portugal qualify through playoffs. As the draw is before.

      Delete
  3. tedOctober 18, 2019 at 3:44 PM

    As for Belgium (and other non host teams) I reckon the travel that flows from the match draw on November 30 will be important. If they play in Russia then travel to Denmark then back to Russia then that would be less than ideal but they would be good enough to get through to the Round of 16 in any case.

    I reckon that the group draws should be fixed so that the hosts (or substitute host/s when there is less than 2 hosts in a group) meet on MD3. Then the lowest ranked non host team should travel twice between it's 3 matches which then leaves 2 of the teams including one host travelling once in each group with only the host team with 3 home matches not travelling at all.

    ReplyDelete
  4. TarekOctober 18, 2019 at 3:57 PM

    Thanks Always Ed for your efforts. Any updates regarding AFC simulations for 2022 WC, Based on latest results?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdOctober 18, 2019 at 5:03 PM

      Yeah Tarek, coming up somewhere this weekend.

      Delete
  5. AnonymousOctober 18, 2019 at 6:01 PM

    Where to look draw host euro 2020?
    I do not trust the cantor, where the main sponsor - Gazprom!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousOctober 18, 2019 at 6:06 PM

      I want to know how it happened:
      Group B: Russia, Denmark
      Group F: Germany, Hungary


      Why not this:
      Group B: Germany, Russia
      Group F: Denmark, Hungary

      Delete
    2. tedOctober 19, 2019 at 2:50 AM

      If I remember correctly EUFA had a draw to select the group hosts from a number of options.

      Delete
    3. AmirOctober 19, 2019 at 2:56 AM

      That wasn't a draw, it was UEFA's pairing based on geographical and sports criteria

      Delete
    4. tedOctober 19, 2019 at 3:30 AM

      Amir - this article in mid 2017 suggests that there was a draw

      https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/mediaservices/newsid=2430054.html?redirectFromOrg=true

      The system to determine the host city pairing for the final tournament of UEFA EURO 2020 was approved. Several lists of pairs will be created based on sporting strength (assuming all host teams qualify); geography (distances); and if applicable, security/political constraints. The UEFA administration will draw up five or six different lists of city pairings – all respecting the above criteria – and one list of pairs will then be selected by draw in November/December 2017.

      Delete
    5. AmirOctober 19, 2019 at 5:22 PM

      Yeah, that's true, you right. I meant it wasn't completely random.

      Delete
    6. AnonymousOctober 20, 2019 at 1:59 AM

      You do not trust Gazprom but you trust any of the other trash that sponsors football events lol

      Delete
  6. VitaliiOctober 21, 2019 at 5:05 PM

    Are you sure that 3 non group-winners from League C will complete play-off League A?
    According to regulations, other draw scenario is also possible:
    First step: Select 1 non group-winner from League C who stays in the native League C play-off
    Second step: Select 3 (or 2 if Denmark is in play-offs) among rest League B and League C non group-winners who completes play-off League B, others complete play-off League A.

    What do you think?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousOctober 21, 2019 at 6:03 PM

      If Romania and/or Hungary qualifying via group stage it will be 5 or 6 teams from league B in play-off. And 1 or 2 teams go to play-off league A. Uff, very complicated.

      Delete
    2. EdOctober 21, 2019 at 8:33 PM

      Vitalii, you forget the rule that when there are exactly 4 teams from a league they will a;ways form a path on their own. In this case the B-path.

      Delete
    3. VitaliiOctober 22, 2019 at 12:48 PM

      Yes Ed, you are right. Haven't noticed it.

      Delete
  7. tedNovember 20, 2019 at 2:38 PM

    My understanding of the rules around host countries in the upcoming playoffs is that Path D should be paired with either Path A or Path C depending on which 2 of Romania/Hungary/Scotland are paired in a qualifying path.

    Meanwhile Path B is drawn to Group E and the standalone Path A/C path would be drawn into Group C (Romania if in Path A and Hungary in Path C), D (Scotland, if both Romania and Hungary in Path A) or F (Hungary if in Path A and Romania in Patch C).

    This would then mean that Groups A (with Italy) and B (with Belgium, Russia, Denmark) would be filled by the 2 known Pot 4 teams - Finland and Wales.

    For the aim of leaving as much as possible undetermined prior to the 30 November draw I am wishing that Hungary is drawn in Path A which avoids the chance of Path A being drawn and unconditionally locked into Group C.

    ReplyDelete
  8. tedNovember 20, 2019 at 2:49 PM

    Has anyone worked out potential Group of Life (with Path D winners and weakest Po 1 to 3 combo) and Group of Death scenarios based on the known Pots and partially determined Group and path allocations and alternate path allocations ?

    ReplyDelete
  9. EdNovember 20, 2019 at 3:13 PM

    Correct.

    Fin/Wal will always be divided over groups A and B. These are all possibilities:

    ROU/HUN -> path A, paths A and D are paired, ROU does not qualify
    po A -> grp F
    po B -> grp E
    po C -> grp D
    po D -> grp C

    ROU/HUN -> path A, paths A and D are paired, ROU qualify
    po A -> grp C
    po B -> grp E
    po C -> grp D
    po D -> grp F

    SCO/HUN -> path C, paths C and D are paired, HUN does not qualify
    po A -> grp C
    po B -> grp E
    po C -> grp D
    po D -> grp F

    SCO/HUN -> path C, paths C and D are paired, HUN qualify
    po A -> grp C
    po B -> grp E
    po C -> grp F
    po D -> grp D

    SCO/ROU -> path C, paths C and D are paired, ROU does not qualify
    po A -> grp F
    po B -> grp E
    po C -> grp D
    po D -> grp C

    SCO/ROU -> path C, paths C and D are paired, ROU qualify
    po A -> grp F
    po B -> grp E
    po C -> grp C
    po D -> grp D

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousNovember 22, 2019 at 6:18 AM

      po D could be in group A. Am I right?

      Delete
    2. LusankyaNovember 22, 2019 at 8:50 AM

      No, that's not possible. As Path D is always paired with the path with two hosts (which are of the groups C, D, and F), they can also only end up in groups C, D, and F.

      Delete
  10. EdNovember 22, 2019 at 8:44 AM

    I don't think so. The winner of po D must be paired with the winner of po A or C (whichever path has two hosts). And that pairing prevents the winner of po D to be drawn in group A.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousNovember 22, 2019 at 9:40 AM

      In my opinion one of three teams WAL/FIN/po D must be paired with po A or C.

      Delete
    2. LusankyaNovember 22, 2019 at 10:24 AM

      Nope, WAL/FIN are not paired. Check out the full draw procedure here: https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/0257-0e07a5f6115c-76a3f95edbc5-1000/euro_play-off_draw_procedure.pdf

      Slide 7 has the answer you're looking for.

      Delete
    3. tedNovember 22, 2019 at 2:07 PM

      Anonymous - Playoff Path D is paired with Playoff Path A.

      Therefore if Hungary/Iceland/Bulgaria wins Path A then Path A is drawn to Group F (Germany) and Path D is drawn to Group C (Ukraine and Netherlands). If Romania wins Path A then these swap to Path A (Romania) drawn into Group C and Path D drawn into Group F.

      Path C is drawn into Group D and Path B is drawn into Group E.

      This leaves Wales and Finland only with Groups A and B in the Finals draw on November 30.

      Delete
  11. tedNovember 22, 2019 at 2:26 PM

    Hey Ed, now that the playoff draw is completed I am looking forward to seeing the %s for each of the 16 teams in the 4 paths to win their Path, be the losing Path finalist or to lose in the semis.

    ReplyDelete