See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here for the simulation results after MD2.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.
The group results with teams ordered by average group position:
The group results with teams ordered by average group position:
| group A | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Syria | 60,13 | 38,33 | 1,53 | 0,01 | 0,00 |
| China PR | 39,59 | 57,12 | 3,25 | 0,04 | 0,00 |
| Philippines | 0,26 | 4,20 | 76,80 | 18,58 | 0,16 |
| Maldives | 0,02 | 0,35 | 18,40 | 79,68 | 1,55 |
| Guam | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,02 | 1,69 | 98,29 |
| group B | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Australia | 89,03 | 9,56 | 1,41 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Jordan | 9,20 | 53,42 | 37,09 | 0,29 | 0,00 |
| Kuwait | 1,77 | 36,87 | 59,62 | 1,67 | 0,07 |
| Nepal | 0,00 | 0,15 | 1,66 | 82,25 | 15,94 |
| Chinese Taipei | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,22 | 15,79 | 83,99 |
| group C | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Iran | 57,57 | 27,81 | 14,59 | 0,03 | 0,00 |
| Iraq | 26,27 | 33,80 | 39,69 | 0,24 | 0,00 |
| Bahrain | 16,16 | 38,32 | 44,66 | 0,86 | 0,00 |
| Hong Kong | 0,00 | 0,07 | 1,05 | 92,73 | 6,15 |
| Cambodia | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,01 | 6,14 | 93,85 |
| group D | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Uzbekistan | 67,05 | 23,00 | 9,14 | 0,75 | 0,06 |
| Saudi Arabia | 23,79 | 42,71 | 28,27 | 4,61 | 0,62 |
| Palestine | 8,75 | 30,88 | 46,26 | 11,62 | 2,49 |
| Yemen | 0,34 | 2,51 | 10,86 | 44,47 | 41,82 |
| Singapore | 0,07 | 0,90 | 5,47 | 38,55 | 55,01 |
| group E | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Qatar | 70,21 | 29,46 | 0,33 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Oman | 29,51 | 67,74 | 2,70 | 0,04 | 0,01 |
| Afghanistan | 0,28 | 2,59 | 48,40 | 40,45 | 8,28 |
| India | 0,00 | 0,21 | 46,64 | 45,87 | 7,28 |
| Bangladesh | 0,00 | 0,00 | 1,93 | 13,64 | 84,43 |
| group F | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Japan | 98,94 | 0,96 | 0,10 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Tajikistan | 0,34 | 50,99 | 46,82 | 1,83 | 0,02 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 0,72 | 47,79 | 50,64 | 0,84 | 0,01 |
| Myanmar | 0,00 | 0,26 | 2,24 | 67,71 | 29,79 |
| Mongolia | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,20 | 29,62 | 70,18 |
| group G | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| United Arab Emirates | 41,57 | 31,03 | 25,42 | 1,96 | 0,02 |
| Vietnam | 31,90 | 29,78 | 34,41 | 3,84 | 0,07 |
| Thailand | 26,07 | 36,78 | 31,33 | 5,72 | 0,10 |
| Malaysia | 0,46 | 2,41 | 8,59 | 78,57 | 9,97 |
| Indonesia | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,25 | 9,91 | 89,84 |
| group H | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Korea Republic | 90,38 | 7,84 | 1,71 | 0,07 | 0,00 |
| Korea DPR | 5,89 | 58,92 | 27,93 | 7,26 | 0,00 |
| Lebanon | 3,62 | 28,32 | 55,70 | 12,36 | 0,00 |
| Turkmenistan | 0,11 | 4,92 | 14,66 | 80,25 | 0,06 |
| Sri Lanka | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,06 | 99,94 |
The probabilities to qualify for a next round and the difference (in procent-point) compared to the simulations after MD2:
Third round WCq - 1 to 12 (or 13 if Qatar is in this group)
| Japan | 99,87 | 2,99 |
| Australia | 98,12 | 4,03 |
| Korea Republic | 97,09 | 2,85 |
| Syria | 95,44 | 13,78 |
| China PR | 89,85 | 1,21 |
| Oman | 85,70 | 12,18 |
| Iran | 82,55 | -6,49 |
| Uzbekistan | 73,29 | 19,04 |
| United Arab Emirates | 58,44 | -12,75 |
| Iraq | 53,65 | 4,62 |
| Bahrain | 47,61 | 17,28 |
| Vietnam | 46,84 | 18,53 |
| Jordan | 45,43 | -19,65 |
| Thailand | 45,24 | 11,54 |
| Korea DPR | 42,51 | -5,35 |
| Saudi Arabia | 31,72 | -3,19 |
| Kuwait | 24,61 | 2,34 |
| Tajikistan | 24,53 | -19,38 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 20,17 | 3,17 |
| Lebanon | 17,17 | -1,07 |
| Palestine | 13,76 | -18,55 |
| Philippines | 2,71 | -5,08 |
| Afghanistan | 1,34 | -2,43 |
| Turkmenistan | 0,90 | -4,98 |
| Malaysia | 0,87 | -3,16 |
| Yemen | 0,40 | -1,76 |
| Maldives | 0,10 | -1,68 |
| Singapore | 0,07 | -2,80 |
| India | 0,01 | -4,12 |
| Myanmar | 0,01 | -0,22 |
| Indonesia | 0 | -0,50 |
| Hong Kong | 0 | -0,25 |
| Nepal | 0 | -0,07 |
| Mongolia | 0 | -0,07 |
| Bangladesh | 0 | -0,01 |
| Chinese Taipei | 0 | 0 |
| Guam | 0 | 0 |
| Cambodia | 0 | 0 |
| Qatar | 0 | 0 |
| Sri Lanka | 0 | 0 |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 1 to 12
| Japan | 99,84 | 3,74 |
| Australia | 97,45 | 5,22 |
| Korea Republic | 96,25 | 3,30 |
| Qatar | 95,47 | 7,91 |
| Syria | 93,18 | 16,31 |
| China PR | 85,67 | -0,11 |
| Iran | 79,91 | -7,37 |
| Oman | 78,49 | 11,55 |
| Uzbekistan | 70,34 | 19,44 |
| United Arab Emirates | 53,48 | -14,45 |
| Iraq | 48,82 | 6,23 |
| Bahrain | 42,71 | 16,79 |
| Vietnam | 42,06 | 17,46 |
| Thailand | 39,61 | 10,24 |
| Jordan | 37,83 | -22,49 |
| Korea DPR | 34,27 | -7,37 |
| Saudi Arabia | 27,99 | -3,77 |
| Kuwait | 18,51 | -0,45 |
| Tajikistan | 17,17 | -19,76 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 12,77 | -0,62 |
| Lebanon | 12,36 | -2,20 |
| Palestine | 11,29 | -17,69 |
| Philippines | 2,01 | -4,49 |
| Afghanistan | 0,98 | -1,87 |
| Malaysia | 0,60 | -2,61 |
| Turkmenistan | 0,41 | -3,84 |
| Yemen | 0,39 | -1,42 |
| Singapore | 0,07 | -2,47 |
| Maldives | 0,06 | -1,23 |
| Myanmar | 0,01 | -0,10 |
| India | 0 | -3,20 |
| Indonesia | 0 | -0,46 |
| Hong Kong | 0 | -0,15 |
| Mongolia | 0 | -0,05 |
| Nepal | 0 | -0,01 |
| Bangladesh | 0 | -0,01 |
| Chinese Taipei | 0 | 0 |
| Guam | 0 | 0 |
| Cambodia | 0 | 0 |
| Sri Lanka | 0 | 0 |
ANCq3 - 13 to 28 (or 29 if China is in this group)
| Philippines | 94,75 | 14,05 |
| Turkmenistan | 88,57 | 11,92 |
| Lebanon | 87,58 | 8,68 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 87,13 | 7,43 |
| Palestine | 85,29 | 22,03 |
| Tajikistan | 82,66 | 20,31 |
| Kuwait | 81,24 | 2,97 |
| India | 72,61 | -7,26 |
| Saudi Arabia | 71,17 | 10,50 |
| Afghanistan | 69,01 | 0,90 |
| Korea DPR | 65,73 | 7,83 |
| Malaysia | 65,34 | 8,43 |
| Maldives | 64,37 | 6,24 |
| Jordan | 62,17 | 22,69 |
| Thailand | 60,24 | -5,62 |
| Vietnam | 57,81 | -8,27 |
| Bahrain | 57,25 | -14,81 |
| Iraq | 51,18 | -5,46 |
| United Arab Emirates | 46,47 | 15,24 |
| Yemen | 43,41 | 2,38 |
| Singapore | 33,06 | -16,59 |
| Uzbekistan | 29,59 | -16,18 |
| Hong Kong | 27,04 | -1,45 |
| Nepal | 22,32 | -0,69 |
| Oman | 21,50 | -11,26 |
| Myanmar | 20,19 | -4,67 |
| Iran | 20,09 | 7,39 |
| China PR | 14,33 | 0,11 |
| Syria | 6,82 | -16,15 |
| Indonesia | 4,80 | -17,98 |
| Bangladesh | 4,77 | 0,76 |
| Qatar | 4,53 | -7,86 |
| Korea Republic | 3,75 | -3,29 |
| Mongolia | 3,28 | -11,48 |
| Australia | 2,55 | -5,20 |
| Chinese Taipei | 1,16 | -5,58 |
| Guam | 0,20 | -3,33 |
| Cambodia | 0,20 | -2,35 |
| Japan | 0,16 | -3,74 |
| Sri Lanka | 0,01 | -0,53 |
Play-off qualification AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 29 (or 30) to 40
| Sri Lanka | 99,99 | 0,53 |
| Cambodia | 99,80 | 2,35 |
| Guam | 99,80 | 3,33 |
| Chinese Taipei | 98,84 | 5,58 |
| Mongolia | 96,72 | 11,53 |
| Bangladesh | 95,23 | -0,75 |
| Indonesia | 95,20 | 18,44 |
| Myanmar | 79,80 | 4,77 |
| Nepal | 77,68 | 0,70 |
| Hong Kong | 72,96 | 1,60 |
| Singapore | 66,87 | 19,06 |
| Yemen | 56,20 | -0,96 |
| Maldives | 35,57 | -5,01 |
| Malaysia | 34,06 | -5,82 |
| Afghanistan | 30,01 | 0,97 |
| India | 27,39 | 10,46 |
| Turkmenistan | 11,02 | -8,08 |
| Palestine | 3,42 | -4,34 |
| Philippines | 3,24 | -9,56 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0,84 | -6,73 |
| Kuwait | 0,25 | -2,52 |
| Tajikistan | 0,17 | -0,55 |
| Thailand | 0,15 | -4,62 |
| Vietnam | 0,13 | -9,19 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 0,10 | -6,81 |
| Uzbekistan | 0,07 | -3,26 |
| Lebanon | 0,06 | -6,48 |
| United Arab Emirates | 0,05 | -0,79 |
| Bahrain | 0,04 | -1,98 |
| Oman | 0,01 | -0,29 |
| Iraq | 0 | -0,77 |
| Korea DPR | 0 | -0,46 |
| Jordan | 0 | -0,20 |
| Syria | 0 | -0,16 |
| Qatar | 0 | -0,05 |
| Australia | 0 | -0,02 |
| Iran | 0 | -0,02 |
| Korea Republic | 0 | -0,01 |
| China PR | 0 | 0 |
| Japan | 0 | 0 |
About me:
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Thanks, the groups should start to take shape after the next 2 match days.
ReplyDeleteIs it possible to show the combined likelihood that Group Runners Up will qualify for the next AFC World Cup Stage, by listing Group A to Group H in order of decreasing likelihood?
Sure Ted,
ReplyDeletethe probability per group that the runner-up of the group is one of the best 4 runners-up:
group A 80,92%
group E 74,94%
group C 71,44%
group B 53,79%
group H 43,29%
group G 35,75%
group F 29,79%
group D 10,08%
Thanks ed
ReplyDeleteAmazing Ed... Thanks a lot :-)
ReplyDeleteHi Ed, As always, I appreciate all the number crunching you do for us all. One thing I've yet to fully understand is what happens if Qatar finish in the "top 12" in terms of the AFC Asian Cup qualifying? Does that mean they qualify for that tournament, or do they still drop into the next stage of qualifying anyway (given that they have to vacate their place in the next round of World Cup qualifying)? I suspect they have to play on in qualifying (which seems a little unfair), but would appreciate a confirmation on this.
ReplyDeleteHi Scott,
Deletethe 8 group winners and the best 4 numbers two of this round (WCq2) qualify for WCq3 and are also qualified for the Asian Nations Cup.
If Qatar is among those teams the fifth best number two also qualifies for WCq3, because Qatar as host is of course already qualified for the World Cup and will not participate in WCq3.
If Qatar is not among those teams then they will proceed in the qualification for the Asian Nations Cup like any other Asian team (except AFC Nations Cup host China): the third round if they end on position 13-28 or the play-off round if they end below that.
I know that in the wikipage is stated "Should Qatar win this group or be among the four best runners-up, they will advance to the Asian Cup qualifying third round only" but that is just nonsense. In the referenced link there, this 'fact' isn't mentioned at all.
So in short: if Qatar ends in position 1-12 they are qualified for the AFC Nations Cup 2023.
The team that will replace Qatar in that case in WCq will also play in AFCq3 and that will lead to a scheduling conflict as from March 2021 on match days for both qualification rounds will be played in the same FIFA match windows. AFCq3 are groups of 4 so need 6 MDs, starting in Mar 2021. The format for WCq3 is not yet known, but was previous two groups of 6 so need 10 MDs, starting in Sep 2020.
DeleteIn the October 2020 window only 1 matchday for WCq3 is scheduled so there is space to shift matches for that team around. That scheduling conflict could be solved.
Not ideal for that team (they will get a very busy schedule), but at least more fair than Qatar having to proceed in qualification while they are already qualified.
Thanks for clearing that up Ed. I had concluded that because of the likely scheduling conflict they would've pushed Qatar into AFCq3, but that would've meant their participation in the WCQ group stage was relatively pointless (other than to simply be active). Personally, (assuming they were ranked in the Top 12) I would've allowed Qatar go through to the final stage of WCQ as you could easily re-jig the placings at that stage instead and as a result avoid the fixture conjestion for the 13th team.
DeleteAnd the host of the tournament is China? If not in the top 12. Probably both Qatar and China automatically qualify for the Asian Cup. The remaining teams will fight for the remaining 10 places. I'm sorry for the mistakes. Google translator
DeleteHi Ed, we appreciate the update of AFC simulations including the probability per group that the runner-up of the group is one of the best 4 runners-up, after MD6 matches. Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteHi ED, thanks again for all your info. I would appreciate if you can update us after these November matches
Delete