CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (October 2019)

Match days three and four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

See here for more information about the CNL and the results of the initial simulations before the tournament started.
See here for more information about the qualification process for the Gold Cup 2021 and the results after MD2.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the whole CNL competition -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A-1	1st	2nd	3rd
Canada	67,18	32,82	0,00
USA	32,82	67,18	0,00
Cuba	0,00	0,00	100,00
group A-2	1st	2nd	3rd
Mexico	99,99	0,01	0,00
Panama	0,01	96,56	3,43
Bermuda	0,00	3,43	96,57
group A-3	1st	2nd	3rd
Honduras	100,00	0,00	0,00
Martinique	0,00	83,74	16,26
Trinidad and Tobago	0,00	16,26	83,74
group A-4	1st	2nd	3rd
Costa Rica	54,42	26,78	18,80
Curacao	40,75	52,62	6,63
Haiti	4,83	20,60	74,57

group B-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Grenada	91,18	8,82	0,00	0,00
French Guyana	6,41	60,94	21,68	10,97
St. Kitts and Nevis	2,41	23,43	57,07	17,09
Belize	0,00	6,81	21,25	71,94
group B-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
El Salvador	84,04	15,96	0,00	0,00
Dominican Republic	15,96	77,34	6,70	0,00
Montserrat	0,00	3,64	69,17	27,19
St. Lucia	0,00	3,06	24,13	72,81
group B-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Jamaica	100,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Guyana	0,00	71,24	28,71	0,05
Antigua and Barbuda	0,00	28,62	69,71	1,67
Aruba	0,00	0,14	1,58	98,28
group B-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	44,09	33,32	22,59	0,00
Suriname	33,62	46,28	20,10	0,00
Nicaragua	22,29	20,40	57,31	0,00
Dominica	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00
group C-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Barbados	81,72	18,28	0,00	0,00
Cayman Islands	18,28	79,86	1,86	0,00
St. Martin	0,00	0,43	56,45	43,12
US Virgin Islands	0,00	1,43	41,69	56,88

group C-2	1st	2nd	3rd
Bahamas	82,65	17,35	0,00
Bonaire	17,35	82,65	0,00
British Virgin Islands	0,00	0,00	100,00
group C-3	1st	2nd	3rd
Guatemala	100,00	0,00	0,00
Puerto Rico	0,00	99,93	0,07
Anguilla	0,00	0,07	99,93
group C-4	1st	2nd	3rd
Guadeloupe	99,92	0,08	0,00
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,08	95,77	4,15
St. Maarten	0,00	4,15	95,85

The performance in the Final Four. In the last 3 columns the difference in procent-point compared to the simulations after MD2:

Final Four	1st	2nd	semis	diff 1st	diff 2nd	diff semis
Mexico	63,54	15,98	20,47	6,13	-1,17	1,11
Honduras	9,92	10,56	79,52	3,25	-6,98	28,47
Costa Rica	8,58	22,10	23,74	-4,45	-6,14	-4,43
Canada	8,26	26,67	32,25	3,30	18,16	5,75
USA	8,03	15,55	9,24	-6,16	0,11	-21,16
Curacao	1,41	7,91	31,43	0,23	2,93	13,03
Haiti	0,26	1,23	3,34	-0,50	-0,82	0,15
Panama	0,00	0,00	0,01	-0,74	-1,12	-3,21
Bermuda	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,02	-0,14	-0,84
Cuba	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Martinique	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,69	-3,13	-11,28
Trinidad and Tobago	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,35	-1,70	-7,59

Then the Gold Cup 2021 qualification. Presented are the probabilities to:
- lose in the first qualification round
- lose in the second qualification round
- win the second qualification round (qualify for GC)
- qualify for GC directly
- total chance to qualify for GC.
Teams are ordered by the last column.

team	q1	q2	win q2	direct Q	total Q
USA	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00	100,00
Canada	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00	100,00
Mexico	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00	100,00
Honduras	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00	100,00
Jamaica	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00	100,00
Panama	0,00	1,18	2,25	96,57	98,82
Curacao	0,00	2,59	4,04	93,37	97,41
Costa Rica	0,00	4,39	14,41	81,20	95,61
Martinique	0,00	6,49	9,77	83,74	93,51
Grenada	4,81	2,62	1,39	91,18	92,57
El Salvador	4,92	4,36	6,68	84,04	90,72
Haiti	0,00	21,32	53,25	25,43	78,68
Trinidad and Tobago	0,00	35,53	48,21	16,26	64,47
Bermuda	0,00	46,30	50,27	3,43	53,70
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	16,85	10,50	5,97	44,09	50,06
Guatemala	25,18	27,04	47,78	0,00	47,78
Cuba	0,00	52,46	47,54	0,00	47,54
Suriname	19,72	14,70	11,86	33,62	45,48
Dominican Republic	37,82	24,93	14,59	15,96	30,55
Nicaragua	9,18	6,47	4,75	22,29	27,04
French Guyana	24,80	19,68	16,46	6,41	22,87
Guadeloupe	51,51	30,14	18,27	0,00	18,27
Guyana	35,45	22,51	13,28	0,00	13,28
Barbados	48,33	22,60	10,79	0,00	10,79
St. Kitts and Nevis	10,18	7,70	5,55	2,41	7,96
Antigua and Barbuda	14,48	8,92	5,22	0,00	5,22
Bahamas	63,18	15,69	3,78	0,00	3,78
Bonaire	12,18	4,00	1,17	0,00	1,17
Belize	3,53	2,20	1,08	0,00	1,08
Cayman Islands	13,37	3,84	1,07	0,00	1,07
St. Lucia	1,80	0,84	0,42	0,00	0,42
Montserrat	2,56	0,93	0,15	0,00	0,15
Aruba	0,09	0,05	0,00	0,00	0,00
Dominica	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
US Virgin Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
St. Martin	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
British Virgin Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Puerto Rico	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Anguilla	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,06	0,02	0,00	0,00	0,00
St. Maarten	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00

Finally a preview of the June 2020 ranking for CONCACAF teams, ordered by average ranking position.

team	hex	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4
Mexico	100,00	0	0	0	0
USA	100,00	0	0	0	0
Jamaica	100,00	0	0	0	0
Costa Rica	100,00	0	0	0	0
Honduras	99,93	0,07	0	0	0
Canada	51,65	48,35	0	0	0
--------------------------------------
El Salvador	35,30	64,70	0	0	0
Curacao	10,91	89,09	0	0	0
Panama	2,21	97,79	0	0	0
Haiti	0	100,00	0	0	0
Trinidad and Tobago	0	100,00	0	0	0
Antigua and Barbuda	0	99,98	0,02	0	0
Guatemala	0	96,76	3,24	0	0
St. Kitts and Nevis	0	51,17	48,83	0	0
--------------------------------------
Nicaragua	0	38,80	61,20	0	0
Suriname	0	11,62	88,38	0	0
Dominican Republic	0	1,61	98,39	0	0
Grenada	0	0	95,25	4,75	0
Barbados	0	0,06	98,22	1,72	0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0	0	78,84	21,16	0
Bermuda	0	0	86,10	13,90	0
Belize	0	0	71,20	28,80	0
--------------------------------------
Guyana	0	0	49,03	50,97	0
St. Lucia	0	0	16,66	83,34	0
Cuba	0	0	4,59	95,41	0
Puerto Rico	0	0	0,04	99,96	0
Dominica	0	0	0	99,89	0,11
Montserrat	0	0	0	99,94	0,06
Cayman Islands	0	0	0,01	95,91	4,08
Aruba	0	0	0	69,79	30,21
--------------------------------------
Bahamas	0	0	0	32,01	67,99
Turks and Caicos Islands	0	0	0	0,01	99,99
US Virgin Islands	0	0	0	2,44	97,56
British Virgin Islands	0	0	0	0	100,00
Anguilla	0	0	0	0	100,00

Canada deals the first blow to El Salvador with regard to qualification for the hex by winning against the US of A.

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