See here for more information about the CNL and the results of the initial simulations before the tournament started.
See here for more information about the qualification process for the Gold Cup 2021 and the results after MD2.
Here are the probabilities (in %) of the whole CNL competition -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.
The group results with teams ordered by average group position:
| group A-1 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
| Canada | 67,18 | 32,82 | 0,00 |
| USA | 32,82 | 67,18 | 0,00 |
| Cuba | 0,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 |
| group A-2 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
| Mexico | 99,99 | 0,01 | 0,00 |
| Panama | 0,01 | 96,56 | 3,43 |
| Bermuda | 0,00 | 3,43 | 96,57 |
| group A-3 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
| Honduras | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Martinique | 0,00 | 83,74 | 16,26 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 0,00 | 16,26 | 83,74 |
| group A-4 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
| Costa Rica | 54,42 | 26,78 | 18,80 |
| Curacao | 40,75 | 52,62 | 6,63 |
| Haiti | 4,83 | 20,60 | 74,57 |
| group B-1 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Grenada | 91,18 | 8,82 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| French Guyana | 6,41 | 60,94 | 21,68 | 10,97 |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 2,41 | 23,43 | 57,07 | 17,09 |
| Belize | 0,00 | 6,81 | 21,25 | 71,94 |
| group B-2 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| El Salvador | 84,04 | 15,96 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Dominican Republic | 15,96 | 77,34 | 6,70 | 0,00 |
| Montserrat | 0,00 | 3,64 | 69,17 | 27,19 |
| St. Lucia | 0,00 | 3,06 | 24,13 | 72,81 |
| group B-3 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Jamaica | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Guyana | 0,00 | 71,24 | 28,71 | 0,05 |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 0,00 | 28,62 | 69,71 | 1,67 |
| Aruba | 0,00 | 0,14 | 1,58 | 98,28 |
| group B-4 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 44,09 | 33,32 | 22,59 | 0,00 |
| Suriname | 33,62 | 46,28 | 20,10 | 0,00 |
| Nicaragua | 22,29 | 20,40 | 57,31 | 0,00 |
| Dominica | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 |
| group C-1 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Barbados | 81,72 | 18,28 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Cayman Islands | 18,28 | 79,86 | 1,86 | 0,00 |
| St. Martin | 0,00 | 0,43 | 56,45 | 43,12 |
| US Virgin Islands | 0,00 | 1,43 | 41,69 | 56,88 |
| group C-2 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
| Bahamas | 82,65 | 17,35 | 0,00 |
| Bonaire | 17,35 | 82,65 | 0,00 |
| British Virgin Islands | 0,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 |
| group C-3 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
| Guatemala | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Puerto Rico | 0,00 | 99,93 | 0,07 |
| Anguilla | 0,00 | 0,07 | 99,93 |
| group C-4 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
| Guadeloupe | 99,92 | 0,08 | 0,00 |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | 0,08 | 95,77 | 4,15 |
| St. Maarten | 0,00 | 4,15 | 95,85 |
The performance in the Final Four. In the last 3 columns the difference in procent-point compared to the simulations after MD2:
| Final Four | 1st | 2nd | semis | diff 1st | diff 2nd | diff semis |
| Mexico | 63,54 | 15,98 | 20,47 | 6,13 | -1,17 | 1,11 |
| Honduras | 9,92 | 10,56 | 79,52 | 3,25 | -6,98 | 28,47 |
| Costa Rica | 8,58 | 22,10 | 23,74 | -4,45 | -6,14 | -4,43 |
| Canada | 8,26 | 26,67 | 32,25 | 3,30 | 18,16 | 5,75 |
| USA | 8,03 | 15,55 | 9,24 | -6,16 | 0,11 | -21,16 |
| Curacao | 1,41 | 7,91 | 31,43 | 0,23 | 2,93 | 13,03 |
| Haiti | 0,26 | 1,23 | 3,34 | -0,50 | -0,82 | 0,15 |
| Panama | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,01 | -0,74 | -1,12 | -3,21 |
| Bermuda | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | -0,02 | -0,14 | -0,84 |
| Cuba | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Martinique | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | -0,69 | -3,13 | -11,28 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | -0,35 | -1,70 | -7,59 |
Then the Gold Cup 2021 qualification. Presented are the probabilities to:
- lose in the first qualification round
- lose in the second qualification round
- win the second qualification round (qualify for GC)
- qualify for GC directly
- total chance to qualify for GC.
Teams are ordered by the last column.
| team | q1 | q2 | win q2 | direct Q | total Q |
| USA | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 | 100,00 |
| Canada | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 | 100,00 |
| Mexico | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 | 100,00 |
| Honduras | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 | 100,00 |
| Jamaica | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 | 100,00 |
| Panama | 0,00 | 1,18 | 2,25 | 96,57 | 98,82 |
| Curacao | 0,00 | 2,59 | 4,04 | 93,37 | 97,41 |
| Costa Rica | 0,00 | 4,39 | 14,41 | 81,20 | 95,61 |
| Martinique | 0,00 | 6,49 | 9,77 | 83,74 | 93,51 |
| Grenada | 4,81 | 2,62 | 1,39 | 91,18 | 92,57 |
| El Salvador | 4,92 | 4,36 | 6,68 | 84,04 | 90,72 |
| Haiti | 0,00 | 21,32 | 53,25 | 25,43 | 78,68 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 0,00 | 35,53 | 48,21 | 16,26 | 64,47 |
| Bermuda | 0,00 | 46,30 | 50,27 | 3,43 | 53,70 |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 16,85 | 10,50 | 5,97 | 44,09 | 50,06 |
| Guatemala | 25,18 | 27,04 | 47,78 | 0,00 | 47,78 |
| Cuba | 0,00 | 52,46 | 47,54 | 0,00 | 47,54 |
| Suriname | 19,72 | 14,70 | 11,86 | 33,62 | 45,48 |
| Dominican Republic | 37,82 | 24,93 | 14,59 | 15,96 | 30,55 |
| Nicaragua | 9,18 | 6,47 | 4,75 | 22,29 | 27,04 |
| French Guyana | 24,80 | 19,68 | 16,46 | 6,41 | 22,87 |
| Guadeloupe | 51,51 | 30,14 | 18,27 | 0,00 | 18,27 |
| Guyana | 35,45 | 22,51 | 13,28 | 0,00 | 13,28 |
| Barbados | 48,33 | 22,60 | 10,79 | 0,00 | 10,79 |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 10,18 | 7,70 | 5,55 | 2,41 | 7,96 |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 14,48 | 8,92 | 5,22 | 0,00 | 5,22 |
| Bahamas | 63,18 | 15,69 | 3,78 | 0,00 | 3,78 |
| Bonaire | 12,18 | 4,00 | 1,17 | 0,00 | 1,17 |
| Belize | 3,53 | 2,20 | 1,08 | 0,00 | 1,08 |
| Cayman Islands | 13,37 | 3,84 | 1,07 | 0,00 | 1,07 |
| St. Lucia | 1,80 | 0,84 | 0,42 | 0,00 | 0,42 |
| Montserrat | 2,56 | 0,93 | 0,15 | 0,00 | 0,15 |
| Aruba | 0,09 | 0,05 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Dominica | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| US Virgin Islands | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| St. Martin | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| British Virgin Islands | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Puerto Rico | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Anguilla | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | 0,06 | 0,02 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| St. Maarten | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
Finally a preview of the June 2020 ranking for CONCACAF teams, ordered by average ranking position.
| team | hex | pot 1 | pot 2 | pot 3 | pot 4 |
| Mexico | 100,00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USA | 100,00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaica | 100,00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Costa Rica | 100,00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Honduras | 99,93 | 0,07 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 51,65 | 48,35 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -------------------------------------- | |||||
| El Salvador | 35,30 | 64,70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Curacao | 10,91 | 89,09 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Panama | 2,21 | 97,79 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haiti | 0 | 100,00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 0 | 100,00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 0 | 99,98 | 0,02 | 0 | 0 |
| Guatemala | 0 | 96,76 | 3,24 | 0 | 0 |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 0 | 51,17 | 48,83 | 0 | 0 |
| -------------------------------------- | |||||
| Nicaragua | 0 | 38,80 | 61,20 | 0 | 0 |
| Suriname | 0 | 11,62 | 88,38 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominican Republic | 0 | 1,61 | 98,39 | 0 | 0 |
| Grenada | 0 | 0 | 95,25 | 4,75 | 0 |
| Barbados | 0 | 0,06 | 98,22 | 1,72 | 0 |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 0 | 0 | 78,84 | 21,16 | 0 |
| Bermuda | 0 | 0 | 86,10 | 13,90 | 0 |
| Belize | 0 | 0 | 71,20 | 28,80 | 0 |
| -------------------------------------- | |||||
| Guyana | 0 | 0 | 49,03 | 50,97 | 0 |
| St. Lucia | 0 | 0 | 16,66 | 83,34 | 0 |
| Cuba | 0 | 0 | 4,59 | 95,41 | 0 |
| Puerto Rico | 0 | 0 | 0,04 | 99,96 | 0 |
| Dominica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99,89 | 0,11 |
| Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99,94 | 0,06 |
| Cayman Islands | 0 | 0 | 0,01 | 95,91 | 4,08 |
| Aruba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69,79 | 30,21 |
| -------------------------------------- | |||||
| Bahamas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32,01 | 67,99 |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0,01 | 99,99 |
| US Virgin Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,44 | 97,56 |
| British Virgin Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100,00 |
| Anguilla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100,00 |
Canada deals the first blow to El Salvador with regard to qualification for the hex by winning against the US of A.
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
I was watching Canada vs United States in disbelief (the Americans played like little kids in the playground) when the announcer blurted out: "I hope they are not doing this to let Canada in the hexagonal ....."
ReplyDeleteCanada or El Salvador. Curaçao almost gone for the top 6.
ReplyDeletebtsvancity.com/2019/11/20/whats-next-for-canada-soccer-in-the-path-to-the-2022-world-cup-%EF%BB%BF/
Hey Ed, with 2021 Gold Cup Qualification now set are you able to provide probabilities for each of the 12 remaining teams to qualify for the competition ?
ReplyDelete4 brackets as per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_CONCACAF_Gold_Cup_Qualifiers#Second_round