Qualification AFCON 2021 simulations (October 2019)

This November the first two match days of the group stage in qualifying for the African Cup of Nations 2021 will be played, in 12 groups of 4 teams. The group stage is played to a finish in Autumn 2020.
In between, in March and June 2020, the first two match days will be played of the second round of African qualifying for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. This is also a group stage consisting of 10 groups of 4 teams.

The exact date for the draw of the WCq group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the November 2019 ranking will be used to seed the draw for this group stage.

Here are the probabilities (in %) for the group stage of AFCON21 qualifying -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

complete Group stage qualification African Nations Cup 2021 with teams ordered by average position in the group:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Mali	49,72	26,65	15,56	8,07
Guinea	25,25	29,83	25,84	19,08
Namibia	17,22	27,09	30,58	25,11
Chad	7,81	16,43	28,02	47,74
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Burkina Faso	45,07	31,57	18,21	5,15
Uganda	36,32	33,92	23,10	6,66
Malawi	16,64	27,89	38,92	16,55
South Sudan	1,97	6,62	19,77	71,64
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Ghana	53,12	32,87	11,17	2,84
South Africa	38,23	39,84	16,68	5,25
Sudan	6,56	19,48	44,25	29,71
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	2,09	7,81	27,90	62,20
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Congo DR	41,95	28,76	18,66	10,63
Gabon	26,75	28,24	26,11	18,90
Angola	21,72	25,58	27,95	24,75
Gambia	9,58	17,42	27,28	45,72
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Morocco	68,02	20,59	8,11	3,28
Central African Republic	12,27	28,72	30,73	28,28
Mauritania	11,47	27,30	30,75	30,48
Burundi	8,24	23,39	30,41	37,96
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cameroon	56,83	24,95	12,88	5,34
Cape Verde Islands	21,20	31,90	27,38	19,52
Mozambique	12,19	23,09	29,98	34,74
Rwanda	9,78	20,06	29,76	40,40
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Egypt	63,73	23,94	9,39	2,94
Kenya	18,06	33,60	30,86	17,48
Togo	14,85	30,33	33,36	21,46
Comoros	3,36	12,13	26,39	58,12
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Algeria	66,98	21,81	8,53	2,68
Zambia	16,97	33,60	28,97	20,46
Zimbabwe	11,23	27,83	32,83	28,11
Botswana	4,82	16,76	29,67	48,75
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Senegal	79,73	15,10	4,24	0,93
Congo	11,32	41,45	31,10	16,13
Guinea-Bissau	6,73	30,14	37,14	25,99
Swaziland	2,22	13,31	27,52	56,95
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tunisia	51,94	27,31	14,23	6,52
Libya	27,00	32,12	24,24	16,64
Equatorial Guinea	10,38	20,70	30,63	38,29
Tanzania	10,68	19,87	30,90	38,55
group K	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cote d'Ivoire	66,05	21,83	8,83	3,29
Madagascar	17,13	34,94	28,16	19,77
Niger	9,30	23,29	32,32	35,09
Ethiopia	7,52	19,94	30,69	41,85
group L	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Nigeria	65,79	22,31	8,93	2,97
Benin	18,58	35,72	27,44	18,26
Sierra Leone	9,07	23,42	33,39	34,12
Lesotho	6,56	18,55	30,24	44,65

Then a first preview of the pots for the draw for the AFCON 2021 final tournament. There will be 24 teams, in 6 groups of 4, participating. Teams below are ordered by average FIFA ranking position after the group stage is finished in November 2020:

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4
Senegal	94,83	0	0	0
Tunisia	79,07	0,18	0	0
Nigeria	87,96	0,14	0	0
Algeria	88,12	0,67	0	0
Morocco	83,91	4,70	0	0
Egypt	60,68	26,99	0	0
---------------------------------------
Ghana	44,45	41,52	0,02	0
Cameroon	29,45	52,32	0,01	0
Cote d'Ivoire	17,93	69,88	0,07	0
Congo DR	5,81	64,69	0,21	0
Mali	4,99	70,84	0,54	0
Burkina Faso	2,65	72,78	1,21	0
---------------------------------------
South Africa	0,08	58,99	19,00	0
Cape Verde Islands	0,03	29,43	23,63	0,01
Uganda	0,02	33,36	36,84	0,02
Guinea	0,02	26,18	28,88	0
Zambia	0	14,53	35,94	0,10
Benin	0	14,60	39,60	0,10
---------------------------------------
Gabon	0	9,93	44,74	0,32
Congo	0	4,05	47,80	0,92
Madagascar	0	2,27	47,37	2,43
Libya	0	0,79	48,74	9,59
Niger	0	0,22	24,83	7,54
Mauritania	0	0,25	28,34	10,18
Mozambique	0	0,25	24,33	10,70
Kenya	0	0,25	34,07	17,34
Central African Republic	0	0,08	22,12	18,79
Sierra Leone	0	0,01	14,25	18,23
Zimbabwe	0	0,05	16,34	22,67
Angola	0	0,03	16,81	30,46
Namibia	0	0,01	15,49	28,81
Guinea-Bissau	0	0	10,37	26,50
Malawi	0	0	8,15	36,38
Togo	0	0,01	6,58	38,59
Rwanda	0	0	1,70	28,14
Sudan	0	0	0,87	25,17
Lesotho	0	0	0,26	24,85
Equatorial Guinea	0	0	0,26	30,82
Tanzania	0	0	0,43	30,12
Burundi	0	0	0,08	31,55
Comoros	0	0	0,06	15,43
Botswana	0	0	0,03	21,55
Swaziland	0	0	0	15,53
Ethiopia	0	0	0,03	27,43
South Sudan	0	0	0	8,59
Gambia	0	0	0	27,00
Chad	0	0	0	24,24
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	0	0	0	9,90

And finally a preview of the November 2019 ranking for African teams, probably used to seed the teams for the draw of the group stage in World Cup qualifying. The teams are ordered by average ranking position.

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4
Senegal	100,00	0	0	0
Tunisia	100,00	0	0	0
Nigeria	100,00	0	0	0
Algeria	100,00	0	0	0
Morocco	100,00	0	0	0
Egypt	99,80	0,20	0	0
Ghana	99,25	0,75	0	0
Cameroon	93,04	6,96	0	0
Cote d'Ivoire	81,36	18,64	0	0
Congo DR	58,76	41,24	0	0
---------------------------------------
Mali	46,20	53,80	0	0
Burkina Faso	21,59	78,41	0	0
South Africa	0	100,00	0	0
Cape Verde Islands	0	100,00	0	0
Guinea	0	100,00	0	0
Uganda	0	100,00	0	0
Zambia	0	100,00	0	0
Benin	0	100,00	0	0
Gabon	0	98,09	1,91	0
Congo	0	86,27	13,73	0
---------------------------------------
Madagascar	0	15,64	84,36	0
Libya	0	0	100,00	0
Mauritania	0	0	100,00	0
Niger	0	0	100,00	0
Kenya	0	0	99,93	0,07
Mozambique	0	0	96,06	3,94
Central African Republic	0	0	88,39	11,61
Zimbabwe	0	0	69,64	30,36
Namibia	0	0	56,89	43,11
Angola	0	0	52,03	47,97
---------------------------------------
Guinea-Bissau	0	0	43,62	56,38
Malawi	0	0	11,34	88,66
Togo	0	0	11,56	88,44
Rwanda	0	0	0	100,00
Sudan	0	0	0	100,00
Equatorial Guinea	0	0	0	100,00
Tanzania	0	0	0	100,00
Ethiopia	0	0	0	100,00
Liberia	0	0	0	100,00
Djibouti	0	0	0	100,00

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.