AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (November 2019)

The match days five and six of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 and MD4.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Syria	90,93	9,03	0,04	0,00	0,00
China PR	9,05	76,65	13,18	1,12	0,00
Philippines	0,02	13,42	76,30	10,23	0,03
Maldives	0,00	0,90	10,46	88,34	0,30
Guam	0,00	0,00	0,02	0,31	99,67
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Australia	93,36	5,76	0,88	0,00	0,00
Kuwait	3,96	51,92	44,09	0,03	0,00
Jordan	2,68	42,30	54,80	0,22	0,00
Nepal	0,00	0,02	0,23	88,04	11,71
Chinese Taipei	0,00	0,00	0,00	11,71	88,29
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Iraq	57,34	33,06	9,55	0,05	0,00
Iran	31,36	32,83	34,58	1,23	0,00
Bahrain	11,28	33,95	53,75	1,02	0,00
Hong Kong	0,02	0,16	2,12	96,99	0,71
Cambodia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,71	99,29
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Uzbekistan	50,17	44,00	4,50	1,23	0,10
Saudi Arabia	47,92	42,47	7,43	1,76	0,42
Palestine	0,25	5,65	43,67	26,72	23,71
Singapore	1,30	6,05	29,39	44,21	19,05
Yemen	0,36	1,83	15,01	26,08	56,72
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Qatar	78,41	21,59	0,00	0,00	0,00
Oman	21,59	78,19	0,22	0,00	0,00
Afghanistan	0,00	0,21	50,28	39,33	10,18
India	0,00	0,01	45,18	45,29	9,52
Bangladesh	0,00	0,00	4,32	15,38	80,30
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Japan	99,73	0,23	0,04	0,00	0,00
Kyrgyzstan	0,16	56,91	35,85	6,76	0,32
Tajikistan	0,09	36,39	53,14	9,90	0,48
Myanmar	0,02	6,33	10,19	76,02	7,44
Mongolia	0,00	0,14	0,78	7,32	91,76
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Vietnam	56,17	28,18	12,04	3,61	0,00
United Arab Emirates	25,88	27,95	26,54	19,48	0,15
Thailand	11,81	29,75	33,48	24,82	0,14
Malaysia	6,14	14,12	27,94	51,80	0,00
Indonesia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,29	99,71
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Korea Republic	83,86	10,35	4,31	1,48	0,00
Lebanon	6,64	36,94	33,78	22,64	0,00
Korea DPR	6,15	32,81	36,51	24,53	0,00
Turkmenistan	3,35	19,90	25,40	51,35	0,00
Sri Lanka	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00

The probabilities to qualify for a next round and the difference (in procent-point) compared to the simulations after MD4:

Third round WCq - 1 to 12 (or 13 if Qatar is in this group)

Syria	99,93	4,49
Japan	99,89	0,02
Australia	99,08	0,96
Oman	94,14	8,44
Korea Republic	90,30	-6,79
Iraq	86,94	33,29
Vietnam	73,32	26,48
China PR	73,15	-16,70
Uzbekistan	68,87	-4,42
Saudi Arabia	66,31	34,59
Iran	59,28	-23,27
Kuwait	49,11	24,50
Jordan	41,07	-4,36
United Arab Emirates	40,10	-18,34
Bahrain	38,93	-8,68
Thailand	27,16	-18,08
Lebanon	23,99	6,82
Korea DPR	20,98	-21,53
Malaysia	11,99	11,12
Turkmenistan	11,19	10,29
Kyrgyzstan	9,03	-11,14
Philippines	7,75	5,04
Tajikistan	4,81	-19,72
Singapore	1,54	1,47
Yemen	0,49	0,09
Palestine	0,31	-13,45
Myanmar	0,16	0,15
Maldives	0,11	0,01
Hong Kong	0,07	0,07
Afghanistan	0,00	-1,34
India	0,00	-0,01
Indonesia	0,00	0
Nepal	0,00	0
Mongolia	0,00	0
Bangladesh	0,00	0
Chinese Taipei	0,00	0
Guam	0,00	0
Cambodia	0,00	0
Qatar	0,00	0
Sri Lanka	0,00	0

AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 1 to 12

Japan	99,87	0,03
Syria	99,69	6,51
Qatar	99,43	3,96
Australia	99,01	1,56
Oman	90,06	11,57
Korea Republic	87,81	-8,44
Iraq	82,53	33,71
Vietnam	67,23	25,17
China PR	65,39	-20,28
Uzbekistan	62,23	-8,11
Saudi Arabia	60,04	32,05
Iran	55,22	-24,69
Kuwait	42,98	24,47
Jordan	37,30	-0,53
United Arab Emirates	34,86	-18,62
Bahrain	33,57	-9,14
Thailand	20,91	-18,70
Lebanon	15,51	3,15
Korea DPR	13,32	-20,95
Malaysia	9,39	8,79
Turkmenistan	7,44	7,03
Philippines	5,66	3,65
Kyrgyzstan	5,26	-7,51
Tajikistan	3,18	-13,99
Singapore	1,34	1,27
Yemen	0,38	-0,01
Palestine	0,26	-11,03
Myanmar	0,07	0,06
Maldives	0,04	-0,02
Hong Kong	0,02	0,02
Afghanistan	0,00	-0,98
India	0,00	0
Indonesia	0,00	0
Mongolia	0,00	0
Nepal	0,00	0
Bangladesh	0,00	0
Chinese Taipei	0,00	0
Guam	0,00	0
Cambodia	0,00	0
Sri Lanka	0,00	0

ANCq3 - 13 to 28 (or 29 if China is in this group)

Tajikistan	94,14	11,48
Kyrgyzstan	93,46	6,33
Turkmenistan	92,28	3,71
Philippines	92,02	-2,73
Malaysia	90,36	25,02
Korea DPR	86,50	20,77
Lebanon	84,42	-3,16
Thailand	78,73	18,49
Palestine	69,78	-15,51
Singapore	68,66	35,60
Bahrain	66,40	9,15
United Arab Emirates	63,87	17,40
Jordan	62,70	0,53
Afghanistan	58,66	-10,35
Kuwait	57,02	-24,22
India	55,96	-16,65
Myanmar	50,84	30,65
Maldives	50,67	-13,70
Iran	44,46	24,37
Saudi Arabia	39,46	-31,71
Uzbekistan	37,65	8,06
Yemen	36,90	-6,51
China PR	34,47	20,14
Vietnam	32,77	-25,04
Hong Kong	32,58	5,54
Iraq	17,47	-33,71
Korea Republic	12,19	8,44
Oman	9,94	-11,56
Nepal	8,51	-13,81
Bangladesh	5,54	0,77
Mongolia	3,25	-0,03
Australia	0,99	-1,56
Qatar	0,57	-3,96
Chinese Taipei	0,34	-0,82
Syria	0,31	-6,51
Indonesia	0,23	-4,57
Guam	0,19	-0,01
Japan	0,13	-0,03
Cambodia	0,05	-0,15
Sri Lanka	0,00	-0,01

Play-off qualification AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 29 (or 30) to 40

Sri Lanka	100,00	0,01
Cambodia	99,95	0,15
Guam	99,81	0,01
Indonesia	99,77	4,57
Chinese Taipei	99,66	0,82
Mongolia	96,75	0,03
Bangladesh	94,46	-0,77
Nepal	91,49	13,81
Hong Kong	67,40	-5,56
Yemen	62,72	6,52
Maldives	49,29	13,72
Myanmar	49,09	-30,71
India	44,04	16,65
Afghanistan	41,34	11,33
Singapore	30,00	-36,87
Palestine	29,96	26,54
Tajikistan	2,68	2,51
Philippines	2,32	-0,92
Kyrgyzstan	1,28	1,18
United Arab Emirates	1,27	1,22
Saudi Arabia	0,50	-0,34
Thailand	0,36	0,21
Iran	0,32	0,32
Turkmenistan	0,28	-10,74
Malaysia	0,25	-33,81
Korea DPR	0,18	0,18
China PR	0,14	0,14
Uzbekistan	0,12	0,05
Lebanon	0,07	0,01
Bahrain	0,03	-0,01
Kuwait	0,00	-0,25
Vietnam	0,00	-0,13
Oman	0,00	-0,01
Iraq	0,00	0
Jordan	0,00	0
Syria	0,00	0
Qatar	0,00	0
Australia	0,00	0
Korea Republic	0,00	0
Japan	0,00	0

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.