See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 and MD4.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.
The group results with teams ordered by average group position:
The group results with teams ordered by average group position:
| group A | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Syria | 90,93 | 9,03 | 0,04 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| China PR | 9,05 | 76,65 | 13,18 | 1,12 | 0,00 |
| Philippines | 0,02 | 13,42 | 76,30 | 10,23 | 0,03 |
| Maldives | 0,00 | 0,90 | 10,46 | 88,34 | 0,30 |
| Guam | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,02 | 0,31 | 99,67 |
| group B | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Australia | 93,36 | 5,76 | 0,88 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Kuwait | 3,96 | 51,92 | 44,09 | 0,03 | 0,00 |
| Jordan | 2,68 | 42,30 | 54,80 | 0,22 | 0,00 |
| Nepal | 0,00 | 0,02 | 0,23 | 88,04 | 11,71 |
| Chinese Taipei | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 11,71 | 88,29 |
| group C | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Iraq | 57,34 | 33,06 | 9,55 | 0,05 | 0,00 |
| Iran | 31,36 | 32,83 | 34,58 | 1,23 | 0,00 |
| Bahrain | 11,28 | 33,95 | 53,75 | 1,02 | 0,00 |
| Hong Kong | 0,02 | 0,16 | 2,12 | 96,99 | 0,71 |
| Cambodia | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,71 | 99,29 |
| group D | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Uzbekistan | 50,17 | 44,00 | 4,50 | 1,23 | 0,10 |
| Saudi Arabia | 47,92 | 42,47 | 7,43 | 1,76 | 0,42 |
| Palestine | 0,25 | 5,65 | 43,67 | 26,72 | 23,71 |
| Singapore | 1,30 | 6,05 | 29,39 | 44,21 | 19,05 |
| Yemen | 0,36 | 1,83 | 15,01 | 26,08 | 56,72 |
| group E | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Qatar | 78,41 | 21,59 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Oman | 21,59 | 78,19 | 0,22 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Afghanistan | 0,00 | 0,21 | 50,28 | 39,33 | 10,18 |
| India | 0,00 | 0,01 | 45,18 | 45,29 | 9,52 |
| Bangladesh | 0,00 | 0,00 | 4,32 | 15,38 | 80,30 |
| group F | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Japan | 99,73 | 0,23 | 0,04 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 0,16 | 56,91 | 35,85 | 6,76 | 0,32 |
| Tajikistan | 0,09 | 36,39 | 53,14 | 9,90 | 0,48 |
| Myanmar | 0,02 | 6,33 | 10,19 | 76,02 | 7,44 |
| Mongolia | 0,00 | 0,14 | 0,78 | 7,32 | 91,76 |
| group G | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Vietnam | 56,17 | 28,18 | 12,04 | 3,61 | 0,00 |
| United Arab Emirates | 25,88 | 27,95 | 26,54 | 19,48 | 0,15 |
| Thailand | 11,81 | 29,75 | 33,48 | 24,82 | 0,14 |
| Malaysia | 6,14 | 14,12 | 27,94 | 51,80 | 0,00 |
| Indonesia | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,29 | 99,71 |
| group H | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Korea Republic | 83,86 | 10,35 | 4,31 | 1,48 | 0,00 |
| Lebanon | 6,64 | 36,94 | 33,78 | 22,64 | 0,00 |
| Korea DPR | 6,15 | 32,81 | 36,51 | 24,53 | 0,00 |
| Turkmenistan | 3,35 | 19,90 | 25,40 | 51,35 | 0,00 |
| Sri Lanka | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 100,00 |
The probabilities to qualify for a next round and the difference (in procent-point) compared to the simulations after MD4:
Third round WCq - 1 to 12 (or 13 if Qatar is in this group)
| Syria | 99,93 | 4,49 |
| Japan | 99,89 | 0,02 |
| Australia | 99,08 | 0,96 |
| Oman | 94,14 | 8,44 |
| Korea Republic | 90,30 | -6,79 |
| Iraq | 86,94 | 33,29 |
| Vietnam | 73,32 | 26,48 |
| China PR | 73,15 | -16,70 |
| Uzbekistan | 68,87 | -4,42 |
| Saudi Arabia | 66,31 | 34,59 |
| Iran | 59,28 | -23,27 |
| Kuwait | 49,11 | 24,50 |
| Jordan | 41,07 | -4,36 |
| United Arab Emirates | 40,10 | -18,34 |
| Bahrain | 38,93 | -8,68 |
| Thailand | 27,16 | -18,08 |
| Lebanon | 23,99 | 6,82 |
| Korea DPR | 20,98 | -21,53 |
| Malaysia | 11,99 | 11,12 |
| Turkmenistan | 11,19 | 10,29 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 9,03 | -11,14 |
| Philippines | 7,75 | 5,04 |
| Tajikistan | 4,81 | -19,72 |
| Singapore | 1,54 | 1,47 |
| Yemen | 0,49 | 0,09 |
| Palestine | 0,31 | -13,45 |
| Myanmar | 0,16 | 0,15 |
| Maldives | 0,11 | 0,01 |
| Hong Kong | 0,07 | 0,07 |
| Afghanistan | 0,00 | -1,34 |
| India | 0,00 | -0,01 |
| Indonesia | 0,00 | 0 |
| Nepal | 0,00 | 0 |
| Mongolia | 0,00 | 0 |
| Bangladesh | 0,00 | 0 |
| Chinese Taipei | 0,00 | 0 |
| Guam | 0,00 | 0 |
| Cambodia | 0,00 | 0 |
| Qatar | 0,00 | 0 |
| Sri Lanka | 0,00 | 0 |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 1 to 12
| Japan | 99,87 | 0,03 |
| Syria | 99,69 | 6,51 |
| Qatar | 99,43 | 3,96 |
| Australia | 99,01 | 1,56 |
| Oman | 90,06 | 11,57 |
| Korea Republic | 87,81 | -8,44 |
| Iraq | 82,53 | 33,71 |
| Vietnam | 67,23 | 25,17 |
| China PR | 65,39 | -20,28 |
| Uzbekistan | 62,23 | -8,11 |
| Saudi Arabia | 60,04 | 32,05 |
| Iran | 55,22 | -24,69 |
| Kuwait | 42,98 | 24,47 |
| Jordan | 37,30 | -0,53 |
| United Arab Emirates | 34,86 | -18,62 |
| Bahrain | 33,57 | -9,14 |
| Thailand | 20,91 | -18,70 |
| Lebanon | 15,51 | 3,15 |
| Korea DPR | 13,32 | -20,95 |
| Malaysia | 9,39 | 8,79 |
| Turkmenistan | 7,44 | 7,03 |
| Philippines | 5,66 | 3,65 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 5,26 | -7,51 |
| Tajikistan | 3,18 | -13,99 |
| Singapore | 1,34 | 1,27 |
| Yemen | 0,38 | -0,01 |
| Palestine | 0,26 | -11,03 |
| Myanmar | 0,07 | 0,06 |
| Maldives | 0,04 | -0,02 |
| Hong Kong | 0,02 | 0,02 |
| Afghanistan | 0,00 | -0,98 |
| India | 0,00 | 0 |
| Indonesia | 0,00 | 0 |
| Mongolia | 0,00 | 0 |
| Nepal | 0,00 | 0 |
| Bangladesh | 0,00 | 0 |
| Chinese Taipei | 0,00 | 0 |
| Guam | 0,00 | 0 |
| Cambodia | 0,00 | 0 |
| Sri Lanka | 0,00 | 0 |
ANCq3 - 13 to 28 (or 29 if China is in this group)
| Tajikistan | 94,14 | 11,48 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 93,46 | 6,33 |
| Turkmenistan | 92,28 | 3,71 |
| Philippines | 92,02 | -2,73 |
| Malaysia | 90,36 | 25,02 |
| Korea DPR | 86,50 | 20,77 |
| Lebanon | 84,42 | -3,16 |
| Thailand | 78,73 | 18,49 |
| Palestine | 69,78 | -15,51 |
| Singapore | 68,66 | 35,60 |
| Bahrain | 66,40 | 9,15 |
| United Arab Emirates | 63,87 | 17,40 |
| Jordan | 62,70 | 0,53 |
| Afghanistan | 58,66 | -10,35 |
| Kuwait | 57,02 | -24,22 |
| India | 55,96 | -16,65 |
| Myanmar | 50,84 | 30,65 |
| Maldives | 50,67 | -13,70 |
| Iran | 44,46 | 24,37 |
| Saudi Arabia | 39,46 | -31,71 |
| Uzbekistan | 37,65 | 8,06 |
| Yemen | 36,90 | -6,51 |
| China PR | 34,47 | 20,14 |
| Vietnam | 32,77 | -25,04 |
| Hong Kong | 32,58 | 5,54 |
| Iraq | 17,47 | -33,71 |
| Korea Republic | 12,19 | 8,44 |
| Oman | 9,94 | -11,56 |
| Nepal | 8,51 | -13,81 |
| Bangladesh | 5,54 | 0,77 |
| Mongolia | 3,25 | -0,03 |
| Australia | 0,99 | -1,56 |
| Qatar | 0,57 | -3,96 |
| Chinese Taipei | 0,34 | -0,82 |
| Syria | 0,31 | -6,51 |
| Indonesia | 0,23 | -4,57 |
| Guam | 0,19 | -0,01 |
| Japan | 0,13 | -0,03 |
| Cambodia | 0,05 | -0,15 |
| Sri Lanka | 0,00 | -0,01 |
Play-off qualification AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 29 (or 30) to 40
| Sri Lanka | 100,00 | 0,01 |
| Cambodia | 99,95 | 0,15 |
| Guam | 99,81 | 0,01 |
| Indonesia | 99,77 | 4,57 |
| Chinese Taipei | 99,66 | 0,82 |
| Mongolia | 96,75 | 0,03 |
| Bangladesh | 94,46 | -0,77 |
| Nepal | 91,49 | 13,81 |
| Hong Kong | 67,40 | -5,56 |
| Yemen | 62,72 | 6,52 |
| Maldives | 49,29 | 13,72 |
| Myanmar | 49,09 | -30,71 |
| India | 44,04 | 16,65 |
| Afghanistan | 41,34 | 11,33 |
| Singapore | 30,00 | -36,87 |
| Palestine | 29,96 | 26,54 |
| Tajikistan | 2,68 | 2,51 |
| Philippines | 2,32 | -0,92 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 1,28 | 1,18 |
| United Arab Emirates | 1,27 | 1,22 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0,50 | -0,34 |
| Thailand | 0,36 | 0,21 |
| Iran | 0,32 | 0,32 |
| Turkmenistan | 0,28 | -10,74 |
| Malaysia | 0,25 | -33,81 |
| Korea DPR | 0,18 | 0,18 |
| China PR | 0,14 | 0,14 |
| Uzbekistan | 0,12 | 0,05 |
| Lebanon | 0,07 | 0,01 |
| Bahrain | 0,03 | -0,01 |
| Kuwait | 0,00 | -0,25 |
| Vietnam | 0,00 | -0,13 |
| Oman | 0,00 | -0,01 |
| Iraq | 0,00 | 0 |
| Jordan | 0,00 | 0 |
| Syria | 0,00 | 0 |
| Qatar | 0,00 | 0 |
| Australia | 0,00 | 0 |
| Korea Republic | 0,00 | 0 |
| Japan | 0,00 | 0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Thanks a lot Ed for this great post.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate to update us also for the new probability per group that the runner-up of the group is one of the best 4 runners-up, after MD6 matches. Would like to feel warm regarding my country/jordan probabilities to qualify :-), Thanks in advance.
Sorry Tarek, forgot to include this overview.
ReplyDeleteProbabiity (in %) to qualify as one of the four best group runners-up per group:
group E 89,49
group B 79,29
group C 71,34
group A 70,78
group G 32,39
group D 24,25
group H 24,08
group F 8,38
Still looking ok for Jordan !
Looking ok for my country group runner up probabilities, but hope that jordan will be the runner up!. Thanks again Ed, appreciated.
DeleteThanks Ed, there are clearly some key matchups ahead in March for those outside the current AFC top 6
ReplyDeleteHi Ed - with Syria, Australia and Japan all on maximum points after Match Day 6 what are the %s for each of these teams that they will have locked in a WCQ Stage 3 berth with 2 games to spare following Match Day 8 on 31 March 2020 ?
ReplyDeleteHi Ed, what do the AFC WCQ Stage 3 pot 1 to 6 seeding %s look like prior to March and June qualifiers in stage 2 ?
ReplyDeleteProbabilities to end in a certain pot for the draw of AFC WCq3 (corrected for the chance to qualify at all for this round). Teams are ordered by average pot:
ReplyDeleteJapan - 96,30 - 3,48 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00
Iran - 34,73 - 0,41 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00
Korea Republic - 24,74 - 56,80 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00
Australia - 17,38 - 80,79 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00
Saudi Arabia - 0,03 - 12,21 - 29,20 - 2,49 - 0,04 - 0,00
Iraq - 0,02 - 17,47 - 45,01 - 12,81 - 0,28 - 0,00
United Arab Emirates - 0,00 - 2,96 - 10,91 - 2,19 - 0,02 - 0,00
China PR - 0,00 - 3,40 - 28,87 - 19,55 - 1,68 - 0,00
Syria - 0,00 - 0,71 - 23,25 - 53,58 - 21,78 - 0,53
Oman - 0,00 - 0,11 - 8,09 - 46,27 - 33,19 - 0,96
Uzbekistan - 0,00 - 0,01 - 3,75 - 23,75 - 19,04 - 0,89
Lebanon - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,05 - 1,34 - 3,78 - 0,59
Kyrgyzstan - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,06 - 0,52 - 0,24
Vietnam - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 3,46 - 34,49 - 15,81
Bahrain - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,21 - 7,03 - 7,91
Jordan - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,22 - 6,19 - 10,45
Palestine - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00
Thailand - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,01 - 1,34 - 6,03
Korea DPR - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,01 - 0,72 - 3,68
Myanmar - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00
Tajikistan - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,03 - 0,20
Philippines - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,07 - 0,53
Turkmenistan - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,09 - 1,16
Yemen - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00
Malaysia - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 1,44
Kuwait - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,02 - 24,09
Singapore - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,02
Maldives - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00
Hong Kong - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00 - 0,00