I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between October 20th and November 24th (Sunday deadline) the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-11-05 Malaysia - Maldives 2:1 (in Malaysia)
2019-11-23 Djibouti - Mauritius
In total 182 matches will count for this ranking.
See here for 'my inclusion rules'.
We will see how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)
Best movers:
11 - Myanmar
9 - Comoros, Kuwait
-14 - Nicaragua
-10 - Equatorial Guinea
-8 - Romania, Chinese Taipei
Best movers in the top 50:
4 - Serbia, Nigeria, Ghana
-8 - Romania
-6 - Iran
-3 - Jamaica
One team will improve their best ever ranking:
Venezuela (25 - 26 in July 2019)
Three teams will drop to new lows:
Sri Lanka (205 - 203 in October 2019)
US Virgin Islands (207 - 206 in October 2019)
Anguilla (210 - 209 in April 2015)
November 2019 rank - Team - November 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Belgium | 1764,51 | 0 | 10,0 |
| 2 | France | 1732,57 | 0 | 7,0 |
| 3 | Brazil | 1711,76 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 4 | England | 1660,71 | 0 | 10,0 |
| 5 | Uruguay | 1645,24 | 0 | 3,0 |
| 6 | Croatia | 1642,06 | 1 | 11,0 |
| 7 | Portugal | 1639,14 | -1 | 7,0 |
| 8 | Spain | 1635,82 | 0 | 11,0 |
| 9 | Argentina | 1623,10 | 0 | 6,0 |
| 10 | Colombia | 1622,14 | 0 | 7,0 |
| 11 | Mexico | 1620,63 | 0 | 8,0 |
| 12 | Switzerland | 1608,27 | 1 | 7,0 |
| 13 | Italy | 1606,58 | 2 | 14,0 |
| 14 | Netherlands | 1604,18 | -2 | 2,0 |
| 15 | Germany | 1601,55 | 1 | 16,0 |
| 16 | Denmark | 1597,57 | -2 | -1,0 |
| 17 | Chile | 1579,38 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 17 | Sweden | 1578,74 | 1 | 16,0 |
| 19 | Poland | 1559,33 | 2 | 15,0 |
| 20 | Senegal | 1555,42 | 0 | 9,0 |
| 21 | Peru | 1543,83 | -2 | -4,0 |
| 22 | USA | 1539,94 | 1 | 10,0 |
| 22 | Wales | 1539,51 | 2 | 16,0 |
| 24 | Ukraine | 1537,18 | -2 | 1,0 |
| 25 | Venezuela | 1516,79 | 1 | 5,0 |
| 26 | Austria | 1506,73 | -1 | -13,0 |
| 27 | Tunisia | 1505,72 | 2 | 11,0 |
| 28 | Japan | 1500,19 | 0 | 2,0 |
| 29 | Turkey | 1493,93 | 3 | 4,0 |
| 29 | Serbia | 1493,67 | 4 | 9,0 |
| 31 | Nigeria | 1493,29 | 4 | 12,0 |
| 32 | Slovakia | 1489,85 | -1 | -3,0 |
| 33 | Iran | 1488,72 | -6 | -16,0 |
| 34 | Republic of Ireland | 1485,51 | 2 | 6,0 |
| 35 | Algeria | 1482,27 | 3 | 13,0 |
| 36 | Northern Ireland | 1475,75 | -2 | -7,0 |
| 37 | Romania | 1474,91 | -8 | -20,0 |
| 38 | Russia | 1470,03 | -1 | -4,0 |
| 39 | Iceland | 1463,56 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 40 | Paraguay | 1460,89 | 1 | 3,0 |
| 41 | Korea Republic | 1458,55 | -2 | -7,0 |
| 42 | Australia | 1457,49 | 2 | 7,0 |
| 43 | Morocco | 1455,83 | -1 | -1,0 |
| 44 | Norway | 1451,09 | 1 | 10,0 |
| 45 | Czech Republic | 1445,56 | -2 | -8,0 |
| 46 | Costa Rica | 1441,52 | 1 | 6,0 |
| 47 | Ghana | 1439,19 | 4 | 13,0 |
| 48 | Jamaica | 1437,39 | -3 | -4,0 |
| 49 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1429,66 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 50 | Scotland | 1421,92 | 3 | 16,0 |
| 51 | Egypt | 1421,18 | -2 | -12,0 |
| 52 | Hungary | 1416,31 | -2 | -13,0 |
| 53 | Cameroon | 1412,62 | -1 | 4,0 |
| 54 | Greece | 1409,41 | 4 | 21,0 |
| 55 | Qatar | 1398,31 | 2 | 7,0 |
| 56 | Mali | 1388,70 | 3 | 3,0 |
| 56 | Congo DR | 1388,54 | -2 | -10,0 |
| 58 | Finland | 1386,24 | -3 | -9,0 |
| 59 | Bulgaria | 1381,26 | 2 | 10,0 |
| 59 | Burkina Faso | 1381,22 | 1 | 3,0 |
| 61 | Cote d'Ivoire | 1380,44 | -5 | -12,0 |
| 62 | Honduras | 1376,81 | 1 | 9,0 |
| 63 | Montenegro | 1368,86 | -2 | -2,0 |
| 64 | Ecuador | 1368,42 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 65 | Slovenia | 1364,53 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 66 | Albania | 1355,72 | -1 | -11,0 |
| 67 | Saudi Arabia | 1351,39 | 2 | 12,0 |
| 68 | North Macedonia | 1346,82 | 0 | 3,0 |
| 69 | El Salvador | 1345,73 | 4 | 10,0 |
| 70 | Iraq | 1340,36 | 4 | 13,0 |
| 71 | United Arab Emirates | 1337,82 | -4 | -15,0 |
| 72 | South Africa | 1334,10 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 73 | Canada | 1331,20 | -4 | -8,0 |
| 74 | Guinea | 1327,92 | 4 | 11,0 |
| 75 | China PR | 1325,12 | -6 | -14,0 |
| 76 | Bolivia | 1324,05 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 77 | Uganda | 1321,25 | 2 | 10,0 |
| 78 | Cape Verde Islands | 1317,95 | -1 | -1,0 |
| 79 | Syria | 1314,07 | 4 | 22,0 |
| 80 | Curacao | 1312,96 | -4 | -10,0 |
| 81 | Panama | 1304,23 | -1 | -6,0 |
| 81 | Oman | 1304,16 | 3 | 15,0 |
| 83 | Gabon | 1296,79 | 4 | 12,0 |
| 84 | Benin | 1294,63 | -2 | 2,0 |
| 85 | Uzbekistan | 1288,87 | 0 | 2,0 |
| 86 | Haiti | 1284,80 | 2 | 4,0 |
| 87 | Zambia | 1277,02 | -6 | -22,0 |
| 88 | Belarus | 1276,22 | -2 | -10,0 |
| 89 | Congo | 1269,31 | 3 | 4,0 |
| 89 | Lebanon | 1268,55 | 2 | 3,0 |
| 91 | Madagascar | 1267,43 | 4 | 18,0 |
| 91 | Georgia | 1266,63 | -1 | -7,0 |
| 93 | Israel | 1260,18 | -4 | -18,0 |
| 94 | Vietnam | 1258,06 | 3 | 13,0 |
| 95 | Cyprus | 1250,66 | -2 | -12,0 |
| 96 | Kyrgyzstan | 1240,08 | -2 | -12,0 |
| 97 | Jordan | 1237,68 | 1 | 2,0 |
| 98 | Luxembourg | 1236,16 | -2 | -12,0 |
| 99 | Mauritania | 1223,14 | 6 | 18,0 |
| 100 | Bahrain | 1219,42 | 1 | -1,0 |
| 101 | Libya | 1214,94 | 2 | 4,0 |
| 102 | Armenia | 1213,02 | -3 | -13,0 |
| 103 | Estonia | 1202,22 | 1 | -7,0 |
| 103 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1201,63 | -1 | -11,0 |
| 105 | Mozambique | 1199,97 | 7 | 14,0 |
| 106 | Kenya | 1199,04 | 2 | 3,0 |
| 106 | Palestine | 1198,78 | -7 | -27,0 |
| 108 | India | 1186,98 | -2 | -14,0 |
| 109 | Central African Republic | 1183,89 | 3 | -2,0 |
| 110 | Faroe Islands | 1180,56 | 0 | -11,0 |
| 111 | Zimbabwe | 1179,88 | 6 | 13,0 |
| 112 | Niger | 1178,98 | -5 | -19,0 |
| 113 | Thailand | 1178,07 | -4 | -15,0 |
| 114 | Azerbaijan | 1177,31 | -3 | -12,0 |
| 115 | Kosovo | 1174,49 | -1 | -10,0 |
| 116 | Korea DPR | 1169,96 | -1 | -12,0 |
| 117 | Namibia | 1159,93 | 2 | -3,0 |
| 118 | Kazakhstan | 1155,34 | 3 | -2,0 |
| 118 | Sierra Leone | 1155,15 | -1 | -12,0 |
| 118 | Guinea-Bissau | 1154,87 | 5 | 0,0 |
| 121 | Tajikistan | 1152,15 | -5 | -16,0 |
| 122 | New Zealand | 1149,43 | -1 | -8,0 |
| 123 | Malawi | 1140,60 | 1 | 1,0 |
| 124 | Philippines | 1135,94 | 2 | 2,0 |
| 124 | Angola | 1135,82 | -4 | -25,0 |
| 126 | Antigua and Barbuda | 1127,35 | 1 | -2,0 |
| 126 | Togo | 1127,21 | -2 | -13,0 |
| 128 | Sudan | 1111,61 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 129 | Turkmenistan | 1106,51 | 4 | 23,0 |
| 130 | Guatemala | 1105,94 | 1 | 12,0 |
| 131 | Rwanda | 1089,25 | -2 | -17,0 |
| 131 | Lithuania | 1088,70 | 1 | 3,0 |
| 133 | Comoros | 1088,36 | 9 | 21,0 |
| 134 | Tanzania | 1086,11 | -1 | 2,0 |
| 135 | Andorra | 1082,14 | 1 | 2,0 |
| 136 | Myanmar | 1081,27 | 11 | 26,0 |
| 137 | Latvia | 1078,52 | 6 | 16,0 |
| 138 | Chinese Taipei | 1078,48 | -8 | -24,0 |
| 139 | Hong Kong | 1075,13 | 6 | 14,0 |
| 140 | Lesotho | 1074,04 | -2 | -2,0 |
| 140 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 1073,86 | -2 | -2,0 |
| 142 | Suriname | 1073,30 | 8 | 21,0 |
| 142 | Solomon Islands | 1072,78 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 144 | Yemen | 1071,77 | -3 | 2,0 |
| 145 | Equatorial Guinea | 1066,36 | -10 | -17,0 |
| 146 | Ethiopia | 1061,01 | 5 | 12,0 |
| 147 | Kuwait | 1059,36 | 9 | 25,0 |
| 148 | Botswana | 1055,44 | -2 | -2,0 |
| 149 | Afghanistan | 1052,24 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 150 | Burundi | 1048,59 | -7 | -14,0 |
| 151 | Nicaragua | 1046,59 | -14 | -30,0 |
| 151 | Liberia | 1046,52 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 153 | Eswatini | 1041,93 | -6 | -13,0 |
| 154 | Malaysia | 1040,02 | 4 | 31,0 |
| 155 | Maldives | 1038,31 | -1 | -1,0 |
| 156 | New Caledonia | 1035,12 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 157 | Singapore | 1020,27 | 2 | 12,0 |
| 158 | Dominican Republic | 1019,36 | -5 | -21,0 |
| 159 | Gambia | 1014,81 | 7 | 25,0 |
| 159 | Grenada | 1014,55 | 1 | 14,0 |
| 161 | Tahiti | 1014,27 | -4 | 0,0 |
| 162 | Barbados | 1011,04 | -2 | 10,0 |
| 163 | Fiji | 996,27 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 163 | Vanuatu | 995,62 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 165 | Papua New Guinea | 990,55 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 166 | Guyana | 988,40 | 8 | 19,0 |
| 167 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 985,67 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 168 | Bermuda | 984,02 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 169 | South Sudan | 983,43 | -7 | -14,0 |
| 170 | Nepal | 974,41 | -3 | -14,0 |
| 170 | Belize | 973,98 | -2 | -12,0 |
| 172 | Mauritius | 970,28 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 173 | Indonesia | 964,07 | -2 | -11,0 |
| 174 | Cambodia | 963,24 | -2 | -11,0 |
| 175 | Moldova | 958,79 | 0 | -4,0 |
| 176 | St. Lucia | 953,45 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 177 | Chad | 943,20 | -1 | -12,0 |
| 178 | Puerto Rico | 941,06 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 179 | Cuba | 939,74 | 0 | 2,0 |
| 180 | Liechtenstein | 926,06 | 1 | -7,0 |
| 181 | Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe | 922,54 | -1 | -11,0 |
| 182 | Macau | 922,10 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 183 | Montserrat | 920,53 | 6 | 10,0 |
| 184 | Malta | 919,19 | -2 | -5,0 |
| 184 | Dominica | 918,70 | 3 | 6,0 |
| 186 | Djibouti | 916,15 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 187 | Bangladesh | 915,32 | -3 | -5,0 |
| 188 | Laos | 912,07 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 189 | Bhutan | 910,96 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 190 | Mongolia | 906,89 | -4 | -8,0 |
| 191 | Brunei Darussalam | 903,90 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 192 | American Samoa | 900,27 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 193 | Cayman Islands | 896,65 | 0 | 2,0 |
| 194 | Samoa | 894,26 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 195 | Bahamas | 879,61 | 6 | 13,0 |
| 196 | Timor-Leste | 879,43 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 196 | Gibraltar | 879,24 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 196 | Somalia | 879,13 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 199 | Guam | 872,83 | -3 | -9,0 |
| 200 | Seychelles | 867,97 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 201 | Aruba | 867,44 | -6 | -18,0 |
| 201 | Pakistan | 866,81 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 203 | Tonga | 861,81 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 203 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 861,56 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 205 | Sri Lanka | 856,35 | -2 | -8,0 |
| 205 | Eritrea | 855,56 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 207 | US Virgin Islands | 844,16 | -1 | -12,0 |
| 208 | British Virgin Islands | 841,73 | 0 | -12,0 |
| 209 | San Marino | 823,74 | 0 | -7,0 |
| 210 | Anguilla | 820,33 | -1 | -11,0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
How do you have Guatemala under Antigua and Barbuda after they demolished them 8-0 in a friendly and after beating 5-0 Puerto Rico and 5-0 Anguila?
ReplyDeleteI think those results show how flawed this FIFA rankings system can be. ELO has Guatemala at #9 in CONCACAF and A&B at #25 which seems a better indicator of their relevant strength.
DeleteThe Guatemalan Federation was suspended by FIFA between 2016 and 2018 (this is why Guatemala started the CONCACAF Nations League from league C). At one point Guatemala was ranked between 140 and 150 in the rankings. It will probably take a while before Guatemala gets back where it belongs - around 70 and 80 in the ranking.
DeleteThanks guys
DeleteMalaysia win many teams. Why malaysia not gp up to ranking 150
ReplyDeleteAllez les fennecs top 10
ReplyDeleteNecessary adjustments in my assumptions to match my ranking with the just published November ranking:
ReplyDeleteFIFA excluded and I included:
2019-11-07 Egypt - Liberia (friendly 1:0)
2019-11-07 Nicaragua - Cuba (friendly 0:0)
2019-11-10 Nicaragua - Cuba (friendly 0:1)
2019-11-10 Trinidad and Tobago - Anguilla (friendly 15:0)
2019-11-14 Cambodia - Mongolia (friendly 1:1)
2019-11-19 Montenegro - Belarus (friendly 2:0)
FIFA included and I excluded:
2019-11-23 Djibouti - Mauritius (friendly 3:0, Roon/BA gives Mauritius as a U20 team, Soccerway does not give this match at all)
Hi Ed
ReplyDeleteIn the new November 28th rankings, I came up with 177 games played. Here are the matches:
32 world cup qualifying
50 European Championship qualifying
25 Concacaf nations League
48 African cup of Nations Qualifying
22 Friendlies
The Fifa November 28 rankings has 184 games played and that leaves the other 7 Friendlies unaccounted for. Here is the link below.
https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/news/myanmar-on-the-march-as-venezuela-hit-record-high
Something doesn't make sense.
Thanks
177 Matches count for the ranking and 7 friendlies (the 6 mentioned above and Malaysia-Maldives) were excluded: those together are 184 matches. Don't know why they first mention that 177 matches are played as A-international and later on that 184 matches are played in total. In this period since the October ranking in total 192 matches were played (including non-FIFA member matches) ! Must be a slip of the pen.... :)
ReplyDeleteHere is the sheet with the detailed points calculation for each team in the November ranking.
ReplyDeleteAs always, thanks so much Ed
DeleteHi Ed, does this mean points are always rounded up to 3 decimals, but FIFA site displays only values rounded to integers?
ReplyDeleteMick, I think they use unrounded points throughout the complete calculation, like I do. FIFA indeed only displays integer points in the ranking table on their site, using the first decimal to round down (4 and lower) or up (5 and higher).
DeleteBefore June 2018 with the old calculation method I've already seen a 0.499995 rounded down, but also a 0.499996 rounded up (!).
And a 0.5 exactly has been rounded down but also up, which was weird, to say the least. A computation should be done the same, time after time.
In the new calculation system a 0.5 exactly shouldn't appear anymore, given the formula of the calculation.
Hey Ed,
ReplyDeleteWill you be providing probabilities for the 2020 Copa America ?
As well as the probabilities of each team finishing 1st .. 6th in the Group Stage I would be interested to know the average points achieved for each team as well as the average points achieved by the teams finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th I each group.
I expect 5 points from 5 matches to be enough to qualify for the Quarter Finals and it will be interesting to see your insights.
Hi Ed!
ReplyDeleteCan you confirm that importance factor for Concacaf NL was 15? Those matches also served as qualifiers for Gold Cup 2019. Then the factor is supposed to be equal to 25.
Mick, the matches played in CNL2020q (these were effectively qualifiers for GC19) had indeed an I-factor of only 15, but that's changed for the CNL2020 group matches. These are qualifiers for GC21 and have now the corresponding I-factor for continental qualifiers (25).
ReplyDelete