Copa America 2020 simulations (December 2019)

Last week was the draw for the Copa America 2020, to be played from June 12th to July 12th next year in Argentina and Colombia. This is the first edition in a new format of 2 groups of 6 teams instead of the awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Now simply the group numbers 1 to 4 qualify for the quarter finals. There are again 2 guests, this time Qatar and Australia as the last two Asian Champions.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The qualification matches for the World Cup 2022 in March and June next year, played by the participants in this Copa, are incorporated in these simulations.


The group results, ordered by average group position, and the average points per team:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg_pts
Argentina	45,24	23,88	14,23	8,93	5,22	2,50	9,83
Uruguay	26,84	27,63	18,96	13,10	8,56	4,91	8,64
Australia	9,34	14,94	19,75	20,57	19,25	16,15	6,38
Chile	9,11	14,62	19,26	20,72	20,08	16,21	6,34
Paraguay	6,36	12,19	17,52	20,38	22,33	21,22	5,82
Bolivia	3,11	6,74	10,28	16,30	24,56	39,01	4,41
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg_pts
Brazil	42,14	25,81	15,94	9,27	4,85	1,99	9,77
Colombia	31,10	27,68	18,31	12,11	7,37	3,43	9,02
Peru	10,60	15,58	20,42	20,20	18,76	14,44	6,58
Venezuela	7,98	13,72	18,43	21,43	20,37	18,07	6,14
Ecuador	4,23	8,71	13,77	19,37	24,53	29,39	5,07
Qatar	3,95	8,50	13,13	17,62	24,12	32,68	4,87

The probabilities per group position and combination of wins, draws and losses (averaged over both groups):

group W/D/L	pts	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
5 wins	15	13,29	0	0	0	0	0
4 wins, 1 draw	13	26,62	0,76	0	0	0	0
4 wins, 1 loss	12	19,04	9,06	0,14	0	0	0
3 wins, 2 draws	11	17,46	6,70	0,03	0	0	0
3 wins, 1 draw	10	17,42	34,57	5,53	0,01	0	0
3 wins, 2 losses	9	1,96	16,99	15,48	1,46	0	0
2 wins, 3 draws	9	2,93	7,35	2,24	0,02	0	0
2 wins, 2 draws	8	1,26	18,56	25,53	3,79	0,01	0
2 wins, 1 draw	7	0	4,91	35,25	27,57	2,13	0
2 wins, 3 losses	6	0	0,05	4,72	22,11	10,58	0,43
1 win, 4 draws	7	0,03	0,72	2,10	0,64	0	0
1 win, 3 draws	6	0	0,35	6,27	12,04	2,57	0,02
1 win, 2 draws	5	0	0,01	2,60	22,89	23,49	2,51
1 win, 1 draw	4	0	0	0,03	7,95	35,86	14,93
1 win, 4 losses	3	0	0	0	0,12	10,79	16,60
5 draws	5	0	0	0,11	0,28	0,09	0,00
4 draws	4	0	0	0,01	0,82	2,37	0,58
3 draws	3	0	0	0	0,30	6,31	6,88
2 draws	2	0	0	0	0,04	5,20	20,47
1 draw	1	0	0	0	0	0,63	25,95
5 losses	0	0	0	0	0	0	11,66

The probabilities to end on a certain group position for each number of points (averaged over both groups):

pts	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
15	100,00	0	0	0	0	0
13	97,24	2,76	0	0	0	0
12	67,43	32,07	0,50	0	0	0
11	72,19	27,70	0,10	0	0	0
10	30,28	60,09	9,61	0,02	0	0
9	10,10	50,27	36,59	3,04	0	0
8	2,56	37,76	51,95	7,70	0,02	0
7	0,03	7,67	50,93	38,47	2,90	0
6	0	0,68	18,59	57,75	22,24	0,74
5	0	0,01	5,20	44,59	45,39	4,82
4	0	0	0,05	14,03	61,13	24,80
3	0	0	0	1,01	41,70	57,29
2	0	0	0	0,16	20,23	79,62
1	0	0	0	0	2,35	97,65
0	0	0	0	0	0	100,00

To qualify for the quarter finals:

Brazil	93,16
Argentina	92,28
Colombia	89,20
Uruguay	86,53
Peru	66,80
Australia	64,60
Chile	63,71
Venezuela	61,56
Paraguay	56,45
Ecuador	46,08
Qatar	43,20
Bolivia	36,43

To qualify for the semi finals (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the quarter finals):

Argentina	63,62		[68,94]
Colombia	60,94		[68,32]
Brazil	60,64		[65,09]
Uruguay	48,12		[55,61]
Australia	31,13		[48,19]
Peru	28,04		[41,98]
Venezuela	23,04		[37,43]
Chile	21,30		[33,43]
Qatar	20,81		[48,17]
Bolivia	15,67		[43,01]
Paraguay	14,29		[25,31]
Ecuador	12,40		[26,91]

To qualify for the final (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the semi finals):

Colombia	37,40		[61,37]
Argentina	35,16		[55,27]
Brazil	33,04		[54,49]
Uruguay	24,19		[50,27]
Australia	15,16		[48,70]
Peru	11,97		[42,69]
Qatar	10,78		[51,80]
Venezuela	8,47		[36,76]
Chile	8,00		[37,56]
Bolivia	7,30		[46,59]
Paraguay	4,64		[32,47]
Ecuador	3,89		[31,37]

To win (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the final):

Colombia	26,42		[70,64]
Brazil	18,99		[57,48]
Argentina	13,27		[37,74]
Uruguay	11,32		[46,80]
Australia	7,07		[46,64]
Peru	5,01		[41,85]
Qatar	4,98		[46,20]
Bolivia	3,55		[48,63]
Venezuela	3,42		[40,38]
Chile	3,11		[38,88]
Paraguay	1,58		[34,05]
Ecuador	1,28		[32,90]

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.