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Wednesday, December 25, 2019

Copa America 2020 simulations (December 2019)

Last week was the draw for the Copa America 2020, to be played from June 12th to July 12th next year in Argentina and Colombia. This is the first edition in a new format of 2 groups of 6 teams instead of the awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Now simply the group numbers 1 to 4 qualify for the quarter finals. There are again 2 guests, this time Qatar and Australia as the last two Asian Champions.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The qualification matches for the World Cup 2022 in March and June next year, played by the participants in this Copa, are incorporated in these simulations.
The group results, ordered by average group position, and the average points per team:
group A      1st     2nd      3rd      4th      5th      6th avg_pts
Argentina 45,24 23,88 14,23 8,93 5,22 2,50 9,83
Uruguay 26,84 27,63 18,96 13,10 8,56 4,91 8,64
Australia 9,34 14,94 19,75 20,57 19,25 16,15 6,38
Chile 9,11 14,62 19,26 20,72 20,08 16,21 6,34
Paraguay 6,36 12,19 17,52 20,38 22,33 21,22 5,82
Bolivia 3,11 6,74 10,28 16,30 24,56 39,01 4,41
group B      1st     2nd      3rd      4th      5th      6th avg_pts
Brazil 42,14 25,81 15,94 9,27 4,85 1,99 9,77
Colombia 31,10 27,68 18,31 12,11 7,37 3,43 9,02
Peru 10,60 15,58 20,42 20,20 18,76 14,44 6,58
Venezuela 7,98 13,72 18,43 21,43 20,37 18,07 6,14
Ecuador 4,23 8,71 13,77 19,37 24,53 29,39 5,07
Qatar 3,95 8,50 13,13 17,62 24,12 32,68 4,87



The probabilities per group position and combination of wins, draws and losses (averaged over both groups):
group W/D/L        pts         1st        2nd        3rd         4th         5th         6th
5 wins 15 13,29 0 0 0 0 0
4 wins, 1 draw 13 26,62 0,76 0 0 0 0
4 wins, 1 loss 12 19,04 9,06 0,14 0 0 0
3 wins, 2 draws 11 17,46 6,70 0,03 0 0 0
3 wins, 1 draw 10 17,42 34,57 5,53 0,01 0 0
3 wins, 2 losses 9 1,96 16,99 15,48 1,46 0 0
2 wins, 3 draws 9 2,93 7,35 2,24 0,02 0 0
2 wins, 2 draws 8 1,26 18,56 25,53 3,79 0,01 0
2 wins, 1 draw 7 0 4,91 35,25 27,57 2,13 0
2 wins, 3 losses 6 0 0,05 4,72 22,11 10,58 0,43
1 win, 4 draws 7 0,03 0,72 2,10 0,64 0 0
1 win, 3 draws 6 0 0,35 6,27 12,04 2,57 0,02
1 win, 2 draws 5 0 0,01 2,60 22,89 23,49 2,51
1 win, 1 draw 4 0 0 0,03 7,95 35,86 14,93
1 win, 4 losses 3 0 0 0 0,12 10,79 16,60
5 draws 5 0 0 0,11 0,28 0,09 0,00
4 draws 4 0 0 0,01 0,82 2,37 0,58
3 draws 3 0 0 0 0,30 6,31 6,88
2 draws 2 0 0 0 0,04 5,20 20,47
1 draw 1 0 0 0 0 0,63 25,95
5 losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 11,66


The probabilities to end on a certain group position for each number of points (averaged over both groups):

       pts         1st        2nd         3rd         4th         5th         6th
15 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
13 97,24 2,76 0 0 0 0
12 67,43 32,07 0,50 0 0 0
11 72,19 27,70 0,10 0 0 0
10 30,28 60,09 9,61 0,02 0 0
9 10,10 50,27 36,59 3,04 0 0
8 2,56 37,76 51,95 7,70 0,02 0
7 0,03 7,67 50,93 38,47 2,90 0
6 0 0,68 18,59 57,75 22,24 0,74
5 0 0,01 5,20 44,59 45,39 4,82
4 0 0 0,05 14,03 61,13 24,80
3 0 0 0 1,01 41,70 57,29
2 0 0 0 0,16 20,23 79,62
1 0 0 0 0 2,35 97,65
0 0 0 0 0 0 100,00


To qualify for the quarter finals:

Brazil 93,16
Argentina 92,28
Colombia 89,20
Uruguay 86,53
Peru 66,80
Australia 64,60
Chile 63,71
Venezuela 61,56
Paraguay 56,45
Ecuador 46,08
Qatar 43,20
Bolivia 36,43

To qualify for the semi finals (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the quarter finals):

Argentina 63,62 [68,94]
Colombia 60,94 [68,32]
Brazil 60,64 [65,09]
Uruguay 48,12 [55,61]
Australia 31,13 [48,19]
Peru 28,04 [41,98]
Venezuela 23,04 [37,43]
Chile 21,30 [33,43]
Qatar 20,81 [48,17]
Bolivia 15,67 [43,01]
Paraguay 14,29 [25,31]
Ecuador 12,40 [26,91]

To qualify for the final (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the semi finals):

Colombia 37,40 [61,37]
Argentina 35,16 [55,27]
Brazil 33,04 [54,49]
Uruguay 24,19 [50,27]
Australia 15,16 [48,70]
Peru 11,97 [42,69]
Qatar 10,78 [51,80]
Venezuela 8,47 [36,76]
Chile 8,00 [37,56]
Bolivia 7,30 [46,59]
Paraguay 4,64 [32,47]
Ecuador 3,89 [31,37]

To win (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the final):

Colombia 26,42 [70,64]
Brazil 18,99 [57,48]
Argentina 13,27 [37,74]
Uruguay 11,32 [46,80]
Australia 7,07 [46,64]
Peru 5,01 [41,85]
Qatar 4,98 [46,20]
Bolivia 3,55 [48,63]
Venezuela 3,42 [40,38]
Chile 3,11 [38,88]
Paraguay 1,58 [34,05]
Ecuador 1,28 [32,90]

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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23 comments:

  1. tedDecember 26, 2019 at 2:01 AM

    Thanks Ed,

    As an Australian fan I am excited that the simulations have us doing that well, 6 points and a Quarter Final berth would be an amazing Group Stage outcome in such a high calibre competition.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdDecember 26, 2019 at 2:12 PM

      Ted, you're welcome.
      Just as with the unexpected negative results for Belgium in the EURO 2020 simulations, it is always good to take these results not too literal. It might prevent disappointment becoming too severe :)

      Delete
  2. HeyyyyyyOhJanuary 7, 2020 at 4:59 PM

    Shot in the dark but has anyone heard a rumour about when the 2022 FIFA World Cup qualification (inter-confederation play-offs) matchups will be announced?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Forza Azzurri (green? no thanks!)January 7, 2020 at 9:55 PM

    No, but I just read that the 2022 FIFA World Cup - European Qualifiers draw will be held on November 29th (Sunday).

    The pots (so far) are:
    One - Belgium, France, England, Croatia, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, Netherlands, Germany
    Two - Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Wales, Ukraine, Austria, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia, Ireland
    Three - Northern Ireland, Romania, Russia, Iceland, Norway, Czech Republic, Bosnia, Scotland, Hungary, Greece
    Four - Finland, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Slovenia, Albania, Macedonia, Belarus, Georgia, Israel, Cyprus
    Five - Luxembourg, Armenia, Estonia, Faeroe Islands, Azerbaijan, Kosovo, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Andorra, Latvia
    Six - Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta, Gibraltar, San Marino

    Great to see that the eight big European teams are all in the top pot, but there are still plenty of games to play:
    * four to seven friendlies per team
    * one to two Euro qualifiers
    * up to seven EURO 2020 games
    * up to six Nations League matches

    The Italian Federation has announced four friendlies before EURO 2020: England, Germany, San Marino (the derby!), and Czech Republic. That means between 13 and 17 games for 2020. Yeaaaaaaaaaah!

    p.s. the draw for the 2020/21 UEFA Nations League is March 3rd. With two spots available to the WC play-offs, it's interesting to note that all teams in pot one are in League A, but the ten teams in pot three are in League A, League B, and League C.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJanuary 7, 2020 at 10:14 PM

      Forza, 2 small remarks:
      - league A, B and C each will have 16 teams this Autumn.
      - the seeding for the UNL 2020/21 will be based on the (slightly adapted) final UNL-ranking 2019, not on any FIFA ranking.

      Delete
    2. EdJanuary 7, 2020 at 10:35 PM

      Ah, and reading your PS a bit better you already knew :)

      Delete
    3. AnonymousJanuary 8, 2020 at 2:32 PM

      Forza are you shure that pots for WC qualification will be based on FIFA ranking? I think it will be based on UNL 20/21 overall ranking because each group winner league A must play in group of 5 teams in WC qual.

      Delete
    4. EdJanuary 8, 2020 at 2:41 PM

      Draws of qualifications for FIFA World Cup are always seeded on FIFA-ranking. The groups of 5 for the UNL Finals participants can be arranged by extra conditions during the draw.

      Delete
  4. EdJanuary 9, 2020 at 9:19 AM

    FIFA has published the publishing scheme for their rankings in 2020 on their site:
    February 20/2
    April 9/4
    July 16/7
    September 17/9
    October 22/10
    November 26/11
    December 10/12

    So there will be no June ranking. I expect the seeding for CONCACAF qualifying WC22 will be based on the July ranking and the draw will be scheduled shortly after July 16th. But of course it could be earlier and based on April ranking then.

    I don't know their reasons to publish an extra December ranking so shortly after the November ranking...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJanuary 9, 2020 at 8:34 PM

      Hmm very strange since Concacaf is basing their WCQ seeding on June 2020 FIFA Rankings

      Delete
  5. EdJanuary 10, 2020 at 8:39 AM

    That was announced by CONCACAF when the publishing scheme for 2020 wasn't known yet. Effectively, it doesn't matter much if they base the seeding on the July ranking: no new CONCACAF matches will be included in that ranking in comparison with a June ranking, compiled after the June International Match Window.
    It becomes a different story if the draw is scheduled so early that the April ranking must be used.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousJanuary 10, 2020 at 3:17 PM

    No they won't use April as the Nations League Finals are in June. And yes June vs July does matter. The race to the 6th seed will likely come down to a few ranking points between Canada and El Salvador. If one of them is behind on June 10, what's stopping them from scheduling one or two friendlies after the June window against Concacaf minnows to boost their ranking before July?

    ReplyDelete
  7. EdJanuary 10, 2020 at 3:36 PM

    A friendly win against a minnow played outside an official match-window delivers something like 1 whole point at best. Current predicted difference between El Salvador and Canada after the June window is 10 points.
    But indeed, nothing is stopping anybody from scheduling friendlies until the deadline of the ranking is there...

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousJanuary 10, 2020 at 4:07 PM

    1 whole point could be the difference between 6th and 7th. Canada can close the gap to 9 points with wins against Barbados and Iceland this week, so 10 points after June seems quite high.

    I checked the FIFA site and there's been a June ranking every year since 2010, so it's pretty confusing why they won't have one this year.

    ReplyDelete
  9. EdJanuary 10, 2020 at 4:22 PM

    El Salvador also plays against Iceland (Jan 19th). Canada is predicted to win against Barbados and draw against Iceland. El Salvador is predicted to lose against Iceland. Other matches for these two are not scheduled yet.
    With those results El Salvador has 1344 points and Canada 1334.

    But indeed, I surely expected a June ranking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJanuary 10, 2020 at 4:45 PM

      El Salvador is worried about losing points so they've turned their match against Iceland into a "training match" with no FIFA points on the line. Which, I guess you'd be a good person to ask, how are they allowed to do that since they are selling tickets and promoting the match?

      Delete
    2. BrandonJanuary 11, 2020 at 1:29 AM

      You know i'm Salvadoran myself and obviously I don't want my country to lose the last place for the Hex. It'll be a good training match for my country. The only reason I can tell you is our federation is kinda corrupt and will do anything for money even as you mentioned selling tickets for a friendly for no points. In conclusion I hope El Salvador stay in hex and we find opponents to get more points and hopefully Canada can lose some games.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousJanuary 11, 2020 at 1:42 AM

      They're selling tickets because it was supposed to be a normal friendly but was changed to "training" after our loss to USA.

      Delete
  10. EdJanuary 10, 2020 at 5:46 PM

    The SLV-ISL match is still listed at both RoonBA and Soccerway, so as far as I'm concerned this friendly counts for the ranking. Only FIFA shall ultimately decide which matches are included in the ranking calculation. And unfortunately, they don't maintain a list of included (scheduled) friendlies anymore, so nobody knows for sure beforehand.

    Just naming a friendly a 'training match' is not enough for being excluded from the ranking. That has to be officially arranged with FIFA.
    AFAIK any team can ask FIFA to exclude a friendly match from the ranking, probably giving certain valid arguments to support that question. Arguments like "we are playing with a complete B or C team" or "we are going to substitute our complete team at half time".
    I don't think selling tickets or promoting the match are valid arguments AGAINST such a request to exclude.

    ReplyDelete
  11. RobertFebruary 18, 2020 at 5:12 AM

    Do we know which month's FIFA rankings will be used to seed UEFA's World Cup qualifying groups?

    I can't find anything on Wikipedia/UEFA website.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  12. EdFebruary 18, 2020 at 9:54 AM

    Robert, not confirmed but logic dictates that it will be the November 2020 ranking (after the last UNL 2019/2020 group matches) that will be used to seed the draw of the European qualifying groups for the WC 2022 on November 29th.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RobertFebruary 20, 2020 at 12:30 AM

      Thanks for the reply. :)

      Have you done/will you do a piece on each national team's chances of being in each pot for the draw? I imagine a few teams will change pots between now and November if those rankings are used.

      Delete
  13. EdFebruary 20, 2020 at 8:41 AM

    As soon as the UNL schedule is known (draw on March 3rd) I will simulate the pots for the UEFA WCq draw and will provide updates throughout the year.

    ReplyDelete