EURO 2020 simulations (December 2019)

Now that the draws for the qualifying play-offs and the final tournament of EURO 2020 are made, it is time to take a detailed look to the chances of each country.

Here are the probabilities (in %), generated over 10.000 simulations. All match-results in each simulation are based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.



First another look at the play-offs as part of these complete simulations. These probabilities should be comparable to the numbers presented here directly after the play-offs draw.
This is a nice chance to research the margin in simulation-results for simulations of the same set of matches and with the same starting elo-rating for each team but with different start seeds. It turns out that the biggest difference is 1,09 procent-point (for the qualification of Norway for the final tournament).

path A	to final	qualification
Iceland	71,33	48,08
Bulgaria	69,30	20,76
Romania	28,67	20,73
Hungary	30,70	10,43
path B	to final	qualification
Slovakia	74,36	48,51
Bosnia-Herzegovina	73,99	24,79
Republic of Ireland	25,64	17,14
Northern Ireland	26,01	9,56
path C	to final	qualification
Norway	67,28	48,93
Serbia	32,72	25,18
Scotland	80,30	21,70
Israel	19,70	4,19
path D	to final	qualification
Georgia	77,70	38,74
North Macedonia	72,05	34,66
Kosovo	27,95	18,60
Belarus	22,30	8,00

Then the group stage of the EUROs. The teams are ordered by their average group position, but not the play-off winners: they are always presented from 4th position onwards:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Italy	45,86	27,97	16,92	9,25
Turkey	24,11	28,59	27,54	19,76
Switzerland	19,48	25,47	29,49	25,56
Wales	10,55	17,97	26,05	45,43
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denmark	42,50	26,42	20,36	10,72
Belgium	33,94	32,40	19,86	13,80
Russia	12,42	22,11	31,87	33,60
Finland	11,14	19,07	27,91	41,88
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Netherlands	62,81	24,31	9,59	3,29
Ukraine	19,32	33,33	28,60	18,75
Austria	11,03	27,00	30,59	31,38
Romania	1,99	3,61	6,48	8,65
Kosovo	1,07	2,46	4,66	6,61
North Macedonia	1,77	4,06	8,29	13,38
Georgia	1,68	4,43	9,79	14,66
Belarus	0,33	0,80	2,00	3,28
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
England	43,76	28,82	18,35	9,07
Croatia	29,94	30,67	23,47	15,92
Czech Republic	15,00	20,91	25,56	38,53
Serbia	4,37	5,90	7,85	7,06
Norway	5,27	9,90	15,82	17,94
Scotland	1,37	3,20	7,82	9,31
Israel	0,29	0,60	1,13	2,17
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Spain	55,81	25,51	13,33	5,35
Sweden	18,02	28,11	28,52	25,35
Poland	12,32	25,75	27,35	34,58
Slovakia	7,40	10,46	14,84	15,81
Northern Ireland	1,37	2,04	3,03	3,12
Bosnia-Herzegovina	3,18	4,88	7,84	8,89
Republic of Ireland	1,90	3,25	5,09	6,90
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
France	38,93	27,91	20,54	12,62
Portugal	33,74	30,30	22,89	13,07
Germany	22,15	30,97	32,89	13,99
Iceland	3,02	5,89	11,88	27,29
Hungary	0,56	1,43	2,47	5,97
Bulgaria	0,87	2,01	4,92	12,96
North Macedonia	0,26	0,50	1,64	4,76
Georgia	0,33	0,61	1,60	5,64
Kosovo	0,10	0,28	0,85	2,57
Belarus	0,04	0,10	0,32	1,13

Note the significant role the home advantage of Denmark (and Russia) plays in the outcome of group B.

Then the focus turns to the knock-out stage with the probabilities to qualify for each round. From the quarter finals onwards also the percentages are presented (in square brackets) to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.

Round of 16

Netherlands	95,10
Spain	92,57
Italy	87,73
England	87,43
Denmark	85,51
France	83,43
Portugal	82,23
Belgium	81,63
Croatia	78,93
Germany	78,31
Ukraine	73,33
Turkey	72,96
Sweden	66,79
Switzerland	61,99
Austria	55,62
Poland	54,25
Russia	53,27
Czech Republic	51,92
Finland	50,32
Wales	43,71
Slovakia	26,25
Norway	23,63
Iceland	14,91
Serbia	14,84
Bosnia-Herzegovina	12,11
Georgia	11,63
North Macedonia	11,10
Romania	8,73
Scotland	8,36
Republic of Ireland	7,90
Kosovo	6,49
Bulgaria	5,13
Northern Ireland	5,13
Hungary	3,12
Belarus	2,24
Israel	1,40

Quarter finals

Spain	66,45		[71,78]
Netherlands	62,84		[66,08]
Italy	56,54		[64,45]
France	53,65		[64,31]
Portugal	52,89		[64,32]
England	46,46		[53,14]
Turkey	45,98		[63,02]
Germany	44,48		[56,80]
Denmark	36,53		[42,72]
Switzerland	35,42		[57,14]
Croatia	32,62		[41,33]
Belgium	30,47		[37,33]
Sweden	28,21		[42,24]
Czech Republic	26,65		[51,33]
Ukraine	23,54		[32,10]
Russia	21,72		[40,77]
Poland	19,21		[35,41]
Slovakia	17,29		[65,87]
Wales	16,13		[36,90]
Finland	15,00		[29,81]
Austria	12,97		[23,32]
Bosnia-Herzegovina	8,05		[66,47]
Norway	6,56		[27,76]
Republic of Ireland	5,18		[65,57]
Georgia	5,13		[44,11]
Serbia	5,11		[34,43]
North Macedonia	4,97		[44,77]
Romania	4,85		[55,56]
Iceland	4,01		[26,89]
Northern Ireland	3,43		[66,86]
Kosovo	3,03		[46,69]
Scotland	2,03		[24,28]
Bulgaria	0,97		[18,91]
Belarus	0,86		[38,39]
Hungary	0,62		[19,87]
Israel	0,15		[10,71]

Semi finals

Netherlands	43,24		[68,81]
Spain	41,84		[62,96]
France	31,73		[59,14]
Portugal	31,05		[58,71]
Italy	29,84		[52,78]
Germany	26,14		[58,77]
Turkey	24,15		[52,52]
England	20,94		[45,07]
Switzerland	15,30		[43,20]
Denmark	14,51		[39,72]
Croatia	12,89		[39,52]
Czech Republic	12,10		[45,40]
Belgium	11,07		[36,33]
Slovakia	10,18		[58,88]
Sweden	9,82		[34,81]
Ukraine	9,44		[40,10]
Russia	9,42		[43,37]
Poland	5,44		[28,32]
Wales	5,28		[32,73]
Bosnia-Herzegovina	5,04		[62,61]
Finland	4,59		[30,60]
Austria	3,73		[28,76]
Republic of Ireland	3,23		[62,36]
Romania	3,20		[65,98]
North Macedonia	3,04		[61,17]
Georgia	3,02		[58,87]
Northern Ireland	2,10		[61,22]
Kosovo	1,83		[60,40]
Norway	1,75		[26,68]
Serbia	1,56		[30,53]
Iceland	1,14		[28,43]
Belarus	0,54		[62,79]
Scotland	0,46		[22,66]
Bulgaria	0,22		[22,68]
Hungary	0,13		[20,97]
Israel	0,04		[26,67]

Final

Spain	26,63		[63,65]
Netherlands	22,35		[51,69]
France	18,12		[57,11]
Portugal	17,90		[57,65]
Italy	14,18		[47,52]
England	13,80		[65,90]
Germany	12,91		[49,39]
Turkey	11,52		[47,70]
Slovakia	6,12		[60,12]
Czech Republic	5,83		[48,18]
Croatia	5,78		[44,84]
Switzerland	5,74		[37,52]
Denmark	5,70		[39,28]
Belgium	4,10		[37,04]
Sweden	3,66		[37,27]
Russia	3,51		[37,26]
Ukraine	2,91		[30,83]
Bosnia-Herzegovina	2,90		[57,54]
Republic of Ireland	1,92		[59,44]
Wales	1,62		[30,68]
Romania	1,58		[49,38]
North Macedonia	1,58		[51,97]
Georgia	1,55		[51,32]
Poland	1,55		[28,49]
Finland	1,38		[30,07]
Northern Ireland	1,16		[55,24]
Kosovo	1,07		[58,47]
Austria	0,87		[23,32]
Serbia	0,55		[35,26]
Norway	0,51		[29,14]
Iceland	0,36		[31,58]
Belarus	0,36		[66,67]
Scotland	0,16		[34,78]
Bulgaria	0,08		[36,36]
Hungary	0,03		[23,08]
Israel	0,01		[25,00]

And the winner:

Spain	15,60		[58,58]
Netherlands	12,77		[57,14]
France	9,72		[53,64]
Portugal	9,37		[52,35]
England	7,21		[52,25]
Italy	6,89		[48,59]
Germany	5,77		[44,69]
Turkey	5,41		[46,96]
Slovakia	3,58		[58,50]
Czech Republic	2,77		[47,51]
Denmark	2,41		[42,28]
Croatia	2,41		[41,70]
Switzerland	2,37		[41,29]
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,76		[60,69]
Belgium	1,49		[36,34]
Russia	1,35		[38,46]
Sweden	1,32		[36,07]
Ukraine	1,12		[38,49]
Romania	0,93		[58,86]
Republic of Ireland	0,91		[47,40]
North Macedonia	0,77		[48,73]
Georgia	0,76		[49,03]
Kosovo	0,55		[51,40]
Wales	0,54		[33,33]
Poland	0,51		[32,90]
Northern Ireland	0,48		[41,38]
Finland	0,42		[30,43]
Belarus	0,18		[50,00]
Austria	0,18		[20,69]
Serbia	0,17		[30,91]
Iceland	0,11		[30,56]
Norway	0,09		[17,65]
Scotland	0,07		[43,75]
Hungary	0,01		[33,33]
Bulgaria	0,00		[0,00]
Israel	0,00		[0,00]

Then a closer look to most probable match-ups in the different knock-out stages. A total of 594 different match-ups are generated in this simulation. Here are per match the 10 most probable match-ups presented. Also per knock-out stage a total overview of the 20 most probable match-ups.

First the chances of the 4 group winners of groups B, C E and F to meet a group third from the other groups in the round of 16:

group winner	grp A	grp B	grp C	grp D	grp E	grp F
B	18,02	0	0	16,28	31,49	34,21
C	0	0	0	29,41	33,51	37,08
E	16,28	32,04	30,86	20,82	0	0
F	32,09	38,69	29,22	0	0	0

Round of 16
A1 - C2 (London - ENG)			B1 - nr 3 (Bilbao - ESP)
Italy - Ukraine	15,34		Denmark - Germany	5,10
Austria - Italy	12,38		Belgium - Germany	4,30
Italy - Netherlands	11,15		Denmark - Sweden	4,17
Turkey - Ukraine	8,21		Denmark - Portugal	3,76
Austria - Turkey	6,28		Belgium - Sweden	3,63
Switzerland - Ukraine	6,23		Denmark - France	3,43
Netherlands - Turkey	5,79		Denmark - Poland	3,35
Austria - Switzerland	5,40		Belgium - Portugal	3,08
Netherlands - Switzerland	4,84		Belgium - Poland	2,71
Ukraine - Wales	3,55		Belgium - France	2,70
A2 - B2 (Amsterdam - NED)			C1 - nr 3 (Budapest - HUN)
Belgium - Italy	9,32		Germany - Netherlands	4,70
Belgium - Turkey	8,92		Netherlands - Sweden	4,36
Belgium - Switzerland	8,50		Netherlands - Portugal	4,02
Denmark - Italy	7,91		France - Netherlands	3,45
Denmark - Turkey	7,49		Netherlands - Poland	2,82
Russia - Turkey	6,43		Croatia - Netherlands	2,40
Denmark - Switzerland	6,30		Czech Republic - Netherlands	2,23
Finland - Turkey	5,75		England - Netherlands	2,21
Russia - Switzerland	5,75		Netherlands - Spain	2,15
Italy - Russia	5,72		Netherlands - Slovakia	1,76
F1 - nr 3 (Bucharest - ROM)			D2 - E2 (Copenhagen - DEN)
Finland - France	4,17		Croatia - Sweden	8,40
France - Russia	3,95		Croatia - Poland	8,03
France - Ukraine	3,90		England - Sweden	7,99
France - Turkey	3,83		Croatia - Spain	7,93
Portugal - Russia	3,78		England - Poland	7,40
Finland - Portugal	3,60		England - Spain	7,24
Portugal - Ukraine	3,55		Czech Republic - Sweden	5,97
Austria - France	3,51		Czech Republic - Poland	5,34
Belgium - France	3,43		Czech Republic - Spain	5,33
Portugal - Turkey	3,18		Croatia - Slovakia	3,41
D1 - F2 (Dublin - IRL)			E1 - nr 3 (Glasgow - SCO)
England - Germany	13,45		Spain - Ukraine	5,45
England - Portugal	13,19		Austria - Spain	5,21
England - France	12,43		Finland - Spain	5,14
Croatia - Portugal	9,26		Russia - Spain	4,83
Croatia - Germany	9,19		Denmark - Spain	4,36
Croatia - France	8,39		Belgium - Spain	3,79
Czech Republic - Portugal	4,65		Croatia - Spain	3,12
Czech Republic - Germany	4,59		Spain - Turkey	3,06
Czech Republic - France	4,09		Czech Republic - Spain	2,77
England - Iceland	2,51		Netherlands - Spain	2,40
total Round of 16
Italy - Ukraine	15,34
England - Germany	13,45
England - Portugal	13,19
England - France	12,43
Austria - Italy	12,38
Italy - Netherlands	11,15
Croatia - Spain	11,05
Belgium - Turkey	10,74
Belgium - Italy	10,38
Belgium - Switzerland	10,16
Denmark - Turkey	9,79
Croatia - Sweden	9,56
Germany - Netherlands	9,52
England - Spain	9,50
Denmark - Italy	9,49
Croatia - Portugal	9,26
Croatia - Germany	9,19
England - Sweden	8,88
Croatia - Poland	8,80
Croatia - France	8,39
Denmark - Switzerland	8,33
Quarter finals
B1-nr3 / A1-C2 (Munich - GER)			F1-nr3 / D2-E2 (St. Petersburg - RUS)
Denmark - Italy	6,78		France - Spain	5,50
Belgium - Italy	4,78		Portugal - Spain	4,94
Denmark - Turkey	3,82		England - France	4,76
Germany - Italy	2,98		England - Portugal	3,99
Denmark - Netherlands	2,90		Croatia - France	3,88
Belgium - Turkey	2,76		Croatia - Portugal	3,45
Denmark - Switzerland	2,70		France - Sweden	3,26
Italy - Turkey	2,19		Czech Republic - Portugal	3,22
Italy - Russia	2,15		Czech Republic - France	3,17
Belgium - Netherlands	2,08		Germany - Spain	2,74
C1-nr3 / A2-B2 (Baku - AZB)			E1-nr3 / D1-F2 (Rome - ITA)
Netherlands - Turkey	9,65		England - Spain	10,07
Italy - Netherlands	9,20		Portugal - Spain	7,95
Netherlands - Switzerland	8,17		France - Spain	6,61
Belgium - Netherlands	4,96		Germany - Spain	6,14
Denmark - Netherlands	4,37		Croatia - Spain	5,65
Netherlands - Russia	4,18		Czech Republic - Spain	3,61
Netherlands - Wales	3,37		England - Sweden	2,93
Finland - Netherlands	2,70		Portugal - Sweden	1,95
Turkey - Ukraine	1,93		France - Sweden	1,57
Italy - Ukraine	1,84		Germany - Sweden	1,55
total Quarter final
Portugal - Spain	12,89
France - Spain	12,11
England - Spain	10,07
Netherlands - Turkey	10,05
Italy - Netherlands	9,52
Germany - Spain	8,88
Netherlands - Switzerland	8,49
Denmark - Netherlands	7,27
Belgium - Netherlands	7,04
Denmark - Italy	6,78
Croatia - Spain	5,65
England - France	5,20
Netherlands - Russia	5,03
France - Sweden	4,83
Belgium - Italy	4,78
Portugal - Sweden	4,67
England - Portugal	4,36
Germany - Italy	4,35
Croatia - France	4,23
Denmark - Turkey	3,82
total Semi final (London-ENG)
Netherlands - Spain	10,07
England - Netherlands	4,77
France - Italy	4,29
Italy - Spain	4,24
France - Netherlands	4,24
Netherlands - Portugal	4,24
Italy - Portugal	4,15
Spain - Turkey	3,84
Germany - Netherlands	3,36
France - Turkey	3,26
Portugal - Turkey	2,97
Germany - Italy	2,76
Germany - Portugal	2,60
Croatia - Netherlands	2,60
Spain - Switzerland	2,59
France - Germany	2,44
France - Switzerland	2,28
England - Italy	2,23
Germany - Spain	2,09
Denmark - France	1,97
Final (London - ENG)
Portugal - Spain	3,14
France - Spain	3,11
Netherlands - Spain	2,55
France - Netherlands	2,49
Italy - Spain	2,45
Netherlands - Portugal	2,40
Italy - Netherlands	2,12
Spain - Turkey	2,04
France - Portugal	2,02
England - Spain	1,83
France - Germany	1,71
Germany - Netherlands	1,67
Germany - Spain	1,66
Germany - Portugal	1,56
England - France	1,48
Netherlands - Turkey	1,45
England - Portugal	1,31
England - Italy	1,23
England - Netherlands	1,22
Italy - Portugal	1,21

Total Knock-out matches
Italy - Netherlands	23,58
England - Spain	22,49
England - France	19,79
England - Portugal	19,69
Netherlands - Spain	19,14
Croatia - Spain	18,00
Netherlands - Turkey	17,99
England - Germany	17,96
Italy - Ukraine	17,73
Portugal - Spain	17,54
Denmark - Italy	17,16
France - Spain	16,63
Germany - Netherlands	15,73
Belgium - Italy	15,72
Netherlands - Portugal	14,79
Netherlands - Switzerland	14,63
France - Netherlands	14,57
Denmark - Turkey	14,24
Croatia - Portugal	14,05
Belgium - Turkey	13,96
…
Russia - Ukraine	1,62
Kosovo - Russia	0,27
Bosnia-Herzegovina - Kosovo	0,14
Kosovo - Serbia	0,05

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.