Gold Cup 2021 qualification play-offs simulations (December 2019)

The composition of the two qualification rounds, to be played next March and June, for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2021 was drawn two weeks ago. Both rounds contain four two-legged play-offs.

In the first round the 4 group winners of league C from the CNL 2019 were drawn against the 4 runners-up from the groups in league B. The 4 winners of these first round play-offs are then drawn against the 4 group numbers 3 from the groups in league A.
The 4 winners of the second round join the 12 already qualified teams for the Gold Cup 2021 final tournament.

Here are the probabilities (in %), generated over 10.000 simulations, to win each qualification round. All match-results in each simulation are based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

First qualification round:

French Guyana (B) 82,59 Bahamas (C) 17,41 Guyana (B) 57,18 Barbados (C) 42,82 Guadeloupe (C) 57,67 St. Vincent and the Grenadines (B) 42,33 Guatemala (C) 98,72 Montserrat (B) 1,28

Second qualification round (in square brackets for first round participants also the probability to win when qualified for the second round):

Bermuda (A)	58,94
French Guyana (B)	37,63		[45,56]
Bahamas (C)	3,43		[19,70]
Trinidad and Tobago (A)	66,01
Guyana (B)	21,77		[38,07]
Barbados (C)	12,22		[28,54]
Haiti (A)	79,33
Guadeloupe (C)	12,11		[21,00]
St. Vincent and the Grenadines (B)	8,56		[20,22]
Guatemala (C)	73,32		[74,27]
Cuba (A)	26,50
Montserrat (B)	0,18		[14,06]

Bad luck for Cuba (and Montserrat).

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.