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Tuesday, June 30, 2020

UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (July 2020)

UEFA is the first confederation to draw up a schedule of matches for National Teams in coming Autumn. After the postponement of the EURO 2020 to 2021 they still had to find room in the calendar for the one-off semi-finals and finals in the four paths to decide the last 4 berths in the EUROs. They found that room by stretching both October and November windows by one day to accommodate 3 match days in each window. In that way they could also maintain the already scheduled group matches for the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 this Autumn. There's even room now for some of the postponed friendlies from the March and/or June window.


 After the UNL group matches the November 2020 ranking will then be used to seed the draw of the 10 European qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. This campaign will start as originally scheduled in March 2021 and may even be extended to March 2022 now as FIFA has in the meantime decided to postpone the intercontinental play-offs in WC-qualifying from March 2022 to June 2022.

 I've made 10.000 simulations of the revised schedule of matches for UEFA teams this year. All probabilities in %.

 First the EURO 2020 qualifying play-offs. I've made earlier simulations of the play-offs in November and December last year. Per participating team the probability to qualify for the path-final and then to win that final and qualify for EURO 2020:

Path A          to final               qualification
Iceland 72,74 48,39
Bulgaria 65,09 19,58
Romania 27,26 18,38
Hungary 34,91 13,65
Path B          to final               qualification
Slovakia 73,32 41,74
Bosnia-Herzegovina 73,41 29,63
Republic of Ireland 26,68 16,38
Northern Ireland 26,59 12,25
Path C          to final               qualification
Norway 61,04 43,30
Serbia 38,96 30,61
Scotland 80,70 21,79
Israel 19,30 4,30
Path D          to final               qualification
Georgia 76,16 38,79
North Macedonia 72,47 34,66
Kosovo 27,53 15,48
Belarus 23,84 11,07

Not surprising considering the lack of matches this year you see roughly the same results, though both Slovakia and Norway saw their high qualification probabilities diminish a bit.


Then the final standings for the groups in the UEFA Nations League 2020:
group A-1             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Netherlands 50,89 30,93 13,70 4,48
Italy 36,63 36,70 19,58 7,09
Poland 9,06 21,50 39,95 29,49
Bosnia-Herzegovina 3,42 10,87 26,77 58,94
group A-2             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Belgium 57,46 27,30 12,56 2,68
England 25,43 36,00 28,54 10,03
Denmark 15,12 29,37 37,95 17,56
Iceland 1,99 7,33 20,95 69,73
group A-3             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
France 40,98 28,84 18,57 11,61
Portugal 28,37 28,07 25,21 18,35
Croatia 18,68 23,59 28,66 29,07
Sweden 11,97 19,50 27,56 40,97
group A-4             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Spain 42,88 27,94 17,52 11,66
Germany 27,12 28,23 25,27 19,38
Switzerland 17,50 23,78 29,22 29,50
Ukraine 12,50 20,05 27,99 39,46
group B-1             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Austria 30,45 25,97 22,92 20,66
Norway 26,70 25,76 24,16 23,38
Romania 23,37 24,62 25,53 26,48
Northern Ireland 19,48 23,65 27,39 29,48
group B-2             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Slovakia 36,98 28,85 21,48 12,69
Czech Republic 35,65 30,56 21,33 12,46
Scotland 19,10 25,03 30,78 25,09
Israel 8,27 15,56 26,41 49,76
group B-3             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Serbia 31,19 28,23 24,54 16,04
Russia 30,81 28,28 25,09 15,82
Turkey 29,54 27,96 25,68 16,82
Hungary 8,46 15,53 24,69 51,32
group B-4             1st            2nd            3rd             4th
Wales 43,27 28,53 18,36 9,84
Republic of Ireland 30,94 30,63 22,92 15,51
Finland 17,41 24,30 31,38 26,91
Bulgaria 8,38 16,54 27,34 47,74
group C-1             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Montenegro 47,43 25,96 16,93 9,68
Cyprus 22,30 27,51 25,82 24,37
Azerbaijan 17,04 24,61 29,60 28,75
Luxembourg 13,23 21,92 27,65 37,20
group C-2             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Georgia 34,42 27,71 21,61 16,26
North Macedonia 33,46 28,11 21,49 16,94
Armenia 16,89 22,93 28,96 31,22
Estonia 15,23 21,25 27,94 35,58
group C-3             1st            2nd            3rd             4th
Greece 38,68 32,15 24,08 5,09
Slovenia 32,83 32,16 28,30 6,71
Kosovo 27,29 31,32 32,83 8,56
Moldova 1,20 4,37 14,79 79,64
group C-4             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Albania 40,85 30,65 18,72 9,78
Belarus 37,46 31,22 19,94 11,38
Kazakhstan 12,47 21,01 32,28 34,24
Lithuania 9,22 17,12 29,06 44,60
group D-1             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Latvia 37,54 28,08 20,28 14,10
Faroe Islands 29,70 27,99 24,21 18,10
Malta 19,95 24,17 28,04 27,84
Andorra 12,81 19,76 27,47 39,96
group D-2             1st            2nd             3rd
Liechtenstein 55,59 35,26 9,15
Gibraltar 38,99 47,10 13,91
San Marino 5,42 17,64 76,94

Some tight groups.to be expected. And what to think of group A-3 with 3 top-10 teams in it, including both finalists of the last World Cup and the current European and Nations League title holder. Weirdly strong.

Then the probabilities to reach and win the Nations League finals. In square brackets you find the probabilities to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.
team  qualify for the UNL finals
Belgium 57,46
Netherlands 50,89
Spain 42,88
France 40,98
Italy 36,63
Portugal 28,37
Germany 27,12
England 25,43
Croatia 18,68
Switzerland 17,50
Denmark 15,12
Ukraine 12,50
Sweden 11,97
Poland 9,06
Bosnia-Herzegovina 3,42
Iceland 1,99
team            qualify for the final
Belgium 36,63 [63,75]
Netherlands 28,84 [56,67]
Spain 25,68 [59,89]
France 22,57 [55,08]
Italy 17,96 [49,03]
Portugal 13,43 [47,34]
Germany 12,94 [47,71]
England 10,67 [41,96]
Croatia 7,65 [40,95]
Switzerland 6,85 [39,14]
Denmark 4,96 [32,80]
Ukraine 4,27 [34,16]
Sweden 3,76 [31,41]
Poland 2,63 [29,03]
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0,83 [24,27]
Iceland 0,33 [16,58]
team                       win the title
Belgium 25,06 [68,41]
France 14,32 [63,45]
Netherlands 12,61 [43,72]
Spain 12,14 [47,27]
Portugal 7,37 [54,88]
Italy 6,61 [36,80]
England 5,26 [49,30]
Germany 5,23 [40,42]
Croatia 3,35 [43,79]
Switzerland 2,41 [35,18]
Denmark 2,10 [42,34]
Sweden 1,48 [39,36]
Ukraine 1,15 [26,93]
Poland 0,64 [24,33]
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0,23 [27,71]
Iceland 0,04 [12,12]

Wouldn't that be something, a final Belgium - the Netherlands 😈

And finally the probabilities (in %) for each team to land in each pot for the WC qualifying draw. The teams are ordered by their average ranking position for UEFA teams in the November ranking (avg).
team      pot 1      pot 2      pot 3      pot 4      pot 5      pot 6        avg
Belgium 100,00 0 0 0 0 0 1,06
France 100,00 0 0 0 0 0 1,94
England 100,00 0 0 0 0 0 3,60
Portugal 99,80 0,20 0 0 0 0 5,00
Spain 99,51 0,49 0 0 0 0 5,28
Croatia 99,70 0,30 0 0 0 0 5,28
Netherlands 87,93 12,07 0 0 0 0 8,22
Italy 86,82 13,18 0 0 0 0 8,33
Germany 74,00 26,00 0 0 0 0 9,11
Switzerland 70,51 29,49 0 0 0 0 9,25
--------------------------
Denmark 64,07 35,93 0 0 0 0 9,68
Sweden 16,37 83,63 0 0 0 0 11,58
Poland 1,16 98,84 0 0 0 0 13,38
Wales 0 99,97 0,03 0 0 0 14,29
Ukraine 0,13 99,87 0 0 0 0 14,63
Austria 0 90,77 9,23 0 0 0 17,50
Turkey 0 78,15 21,85 0 0 0 18,81
Serbia 0 71,47 28,53 0 0 0 18,95
Slovakia 0 66,74 33,26 0 0 0 19,33
Republic of Ireland 0 54,13 45,87 0 0 0 20,25
--------------------------
Russia 0 33,99 66,01 0 0 0 21,58
Romania 0 31,99 68,01 0 0 0 22,00
Northern Ireland 0 28,39 71,61 0 0 0 22,26
Iceland 0 21,54 78,46 0 0 0 22,92
Norway 0 19,05 80,86 0,09 0 0 23,49
Czech Republic 0 2,26 97,62 0,12 0 0 25,13
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 1,18 96,09 2,73 0 0 26,86
Scotland 0 0,30 88,76 10,94 0 0 28,04
Hungary 0 0,07 73,67 26,26 0 0 29,15
Greece 0 0 71,61 28,39 0 0 29,72
--------------------------
Finland 0 0 37,73 62,27 0 0 30,93
Bulgaria 0 0 26,60 73,40 0 0 31,75
Montenegro 0 0 2,06 97,94 0 0 33,36
Slovenia 0 0 1,63 98,37 0 0 33,77
Albania 0 0 0,15 99,85 0 0 34,60
North Macedonia 0 0 0,36 99,64 0 0 35,07
Belarus 0 0 0 98,56 1,44 0 37,88
Georgia 0 0 0 96,09 3,91 0 38,03
Israel 0 0 0 92,66 7,34 0 38,89
Cyprus 0 0 0 73,78 26,22 0 39,77
--------------------------
Luxembourg 0 0 0 30,36 69,64 0 40,95
Armenia 0 0 0 6,51 93,49 0 42,22
Estonia 0 0 0 1,22 98,78 0 43,13
Kosovo 0 0 0 0,75 99,25 0 44,27
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 0,07 99,93 0 44,71
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 45,57
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 46,50
Lithuania 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 48,57
Latvia 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 48,96
Andorra 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 49,46
--------------------------
Moldova 0 0 0 0 0 100,00 51,18
Malta 0 0 0 0 0 100,00 52,39
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0 0 100,00 52,46
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0 0 100,00 53,97
San Marino 0 0 0 0 0 100,00 55,00

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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