FIFA ranking: September 2020 probable ranking

After a 9 months absence of competitive international football (and a half year of any NT football) it seems that the upcoming September FIFA-window will finally see the cautious return of international football: UEFA will start with the UEFA Nations League 2020/21 group matches as scheduled.

CONCACAF published three weeks ago a new format for their World Cup qualification scheduled to start in the October window. Coming wednesday the draw will be performed in Zurich.
AFC on the other hand last week decided to postpone their already rescheduled WC-qualifiers (from March and June to October and November) again to March 2021. A reformatting of their current qualification process seems inevitable with these delays.
OFC published last month a proposal for their WC qualifying format, scheduled to start in March 2021, but not a word about the postponed OFC Nations Cup 2020.
CONMEBOL and CAF were until now also very silent about the start of their WC qualifying campaigns. If they start this year, it will not be earlier than October though.



Beside the first two matchdays in UNL, a handful of friendlies between Asian teams are scheduled. It remains to be seen if these friendlies will be treated in the calculation as played inside a FIFA match window, because FIFA has earlier declared that the September window only is valid for UEFA and CONMEBOL teams. For now I assume the normal I-factor of 10 for these friendlies.

Here is the probable September 2020 ranking, to be published on September 17th.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 57 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 61 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

Probable September 2020 rank - Team - Probable September 2020 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Belgium	1773	0	8,0
2	France	1744	0	11,0
3	Brazil	1712	0	0,0
4	England	1664	0	3,0
5	Portugal	1646	2	7,0
6	Uruguay	1645	-1	0,0
7	Spain	1641	1	5,0
8	Croatia	1628	-2	-14,0
9	Argentina	1623	0	0,0
10	Colombia	1622	0	0,0
11	Mexico	1621	0	0,0
12	Netherlands	1619	2	15,0
13	Switzerland	1607	-1	-1,0
14	Italy	1604	-1	-3,0
15	Germany	1602	0	0,0
16	Denmark	1593	0	-5,0
17	Chile	1579	0	0,0
18	Sweden	1574	-1	-5,0
19	Senegal	1555	1	0,0
20	Poland	1551	-1	-8,0
21	Peru	1544	0	0,0
22	Wales	1543	1	3,0
23	USA	1542	-1	0,0
24	Ukraine	1532	0	-5,0
25	Venezuela	1517	0	0,0
26	Tunisia	1506	1	0,0
26	Austria	1506	0	-1,0
28	Slovakia	1501	4	11,0
29	Japan	1500	-1	0,0
30	Serbia	1494	-1	0,0
31	Nigeria	1493	0	0,0
31	Turkey	1493	-2	-1,0
33	Republic of Ireland	1490	1	4,0
34	Iran	1487	-1	-2,0
35	Russia	1484	3	14,0
36	Algeria	1482	-1	0,0
37	Romania	1475	0	0,0
38	Northern Ireland	1468	-2	-8,0
39	Korea Republic	1464	1	0,0
40	Paraguay	1461	1	0,0
41	Norway	1460	3	9,0
42	Australia	1457	0	0,0
42	Iceland	1457	-3	-8,0
44	Morocco	1456	-1	0,0
45	Czech Republic	1446	0	0,0
46	Costa Rica	1439	0	0,0
46	Ghana	1439	0	0,0
48	Jamaica	1438	0	0,0
49	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1426	0	-4,0
50	Egypt	1420	1	0,0
50	Scotland	1420	0	-2,0
52	Cameroon	1413	1	0,0
53	Greece	1406	1	-3,0
54	Hungary	1403	-2	-13,0
55	Qatar	1396	0	0,0
56	Mali	1389	0	0,0
56	Congo DR	1389	0	0,0
58	Finland	1382	0	-4,0
59	Burkina Faso	1381	0	0,0
60	Cote d'Ivoire	1378	1	0,0
61	Bulgaria	1377	-2	-4,0
61	Honduras	1377	1	0,0
63	Montenegro	1369	1	4,0
64	Ecuador	1368	-1	0,0
64	Slovenia	1368	0	3,0
66	Saudi Arabia	1351	1	0,0
66	Albania	1351	0	-5,0
68	El Salvador	1346	1	0,0
69	Iraq	1344	1	0,0
69	North Macedonia	1344	-1	-3,0
71	United Arab Emirates	1338	0	4,0
72	South Africa	1334	-1	0,0
73	Canada	1332	0	0,0
74	Guinea	1328	0	0,0
75	Bolivia	1324	0	0,0
76	China PR	1323	0	0,0
77	Uganda	1321	0	0,0
78	Cape Verde Islands	1318	0	0,0
79	Syria	1314	0	0,0
80	Curacao	1313	0	0,0
81	Panama	1305	0	0,0
82	Oman	1303	0	0,0
83	Gabon	1297	0	0,0
84	Benin	1295	0	0,0
85	Uzbekistan	1292	0	6,0
86	Belarus	1290	1	7,0
87	Haiti	1285	-1	0,0
88	Zambia	1279	0	0,0
89	Georgia	1274	2	7,0
90	Congo	1269	-1	0,0
90	Lebanon	1269	-1	0,0
92	Madagascar	1267	-1	0,0
93	Cyprus	1259	2	8,0
94	Vietnam	1258	0	0,0
95	Israel	1251	-2	-9,0
96	Kyrgyzstan	1240	0	0,0
97	Jordan	1238	0	0,0
98	Bahrain	1225	1	0,0
99	Mauritania	1223	1	0,0
100	Luxembourg	1222	-2	-14,0
101	Libya	1215	0	0,0
101	Armenia	1215	1	2,0
103	Palestine	1204	0	0,0
104	Trinidad and Tobago	1201	1	0,0
105	Mozambique	1200	1	0,0
106	Kenya	1199	1	0,0
107	Estonia	1196	-3	-6,0
108	India	1187	0	0,0
109	Central African Republic	1184	0	0,0
110	Faroe Islands	1183	0	2,0
111	Kosovo	1182	4	8,0
112	Zimbabwe	1180	-1	0,0
113	Azerbaijan	1179	1	2,0
113	Niger	1179	-1	0,0
115	Thailand	1178	-2	0,0
116	Korea DPR	1170	0	0,0
117	Namibia	1160	0	0,0
118	Kazakhstan	1156	0	1,0
119	Sierra Leone	1155	-1	0,0
119	Guinea-Bissau	1155	-1	0,0
121	New Zealand	1149	1	0,0
122	Tajikistan	1145	-1	-7,0
123	Malawi	1141	0	0,0
124	Philippines	1136	0	0,0
124	Angola	1136	0	0,0
126	Antigua and Barbuda	1127	0	0,0
126	Togo	1127	0	0,0
128	Sudan	1112	0	0,0
129	Turkmenistan	1107	0	0,0
130	Guatemala	1104	0	0,0
131	Rwanda	1089	0	0,0
132	Comoros	1088	1	0,0
133	Tanzania	1086	1	0,0
133	Lithuania	1086	-2	-3,0
135	Latvia	1084	2	5,0
136	Myanmar	1081	0	0,0
137	Chinese Taipei	1078	1	0,0
138	Andorra	1076	-3	-6,0
139	Lesotho	1074	0	0,0
139	St. Kitts and Nevis	1074	0	0,0
141	Suriname	1073	0	0,0
141	Solomon Islands	1073	0	0,0
143	Hong Kong	1072	0	0,0
144	Yemen	1071	0	0,0
145	Equatorial Guinea	1066	0	0,0
146	Ethiopia	1061	0	0,0
147	Kuwait	1060	0	0,0
148	Botswana	1055	0	0,0
149	Burundi	1052	0	0,0
149	Afghanistan	1052	0	0,0
151	Nicaragua	1051	0	0,0
152	Liberia	1047	0	0,0
153	Eswatini	1042	0	0,0
154	Malaysia	1040	0	0,0
155	Maldives	1038	0	0,0
156	New Caledonia	1035	0	0,0
157	Singapore	1020	0	0,0
158	Dominican Republic	1019	0	0,0
159	Gambia	1015	0	0,0
159	Grenada	1015	0	0,0
161	Tahiti	1014	0	0,0
162	Barbados	1009	0	0,0
163	Fiji	996	0	0,0
163	Vanuatu	996	0	0,0
165	Papua New Guinea	991	0	0,0
166	Guyana	988	0	0,0
167	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	986	0	0,0
168	South Sudan	983	0	0,0
168	Bermuda	983	0	0,0
170	Nepal	974	0	0,0
170	Belize	974	0	0,0
172	Mauritius	965	0	0,0
173	Indonesia	964	0	0,0
173	Cambodia	964	0	0,0
175	St. Lucia	953	1	0,0
176	Moldova	952	-1	-7,0
177	Chad	943	0	0,0
178	Puerto Rico	941	0	0,0
179	Cuba	936	0	0,0
180	Liechtenstein	932	0	6,0
181	Sao Tomé e Príncipe	923	0	0,0
182	Macau	922	0	0,0
183	Montserrat	921	0	0,0
184	Djibouti	919	0	0,0
184	Dominica	919	0	0,0
186	Malta	918	-2	-1,0
187	Bangladesh	914	0	0,0
188	Laos	912	0	0,0
189	Bhutan	911	0	0,0
190	Mongolia	906	0	0,0
191	Brunei Darussalam	904	0	0,0
192	American Samoa	900	0	0,0
193	Cayman Islands	897	0	0,0
194	Samoa	894	0	0,0
195	Gibraltar	886	1	7,0
196	Bahamas	880	-1	0,0
197	Timor-Leste	879	-1	0,0
197	Somalia	879	-1	0,0
199	Guam	873	0	0,0
200	Aruba	867	0	0,0
200	Pakistan	867	0	0,0
202	Seychelles	866	0	0,0
203	Tonga	862	0	0,0
203	Turks and Caicos Islands	862	0	0,0
205	Eritrea	856	0	0,0
206	Sri Lanka	853	0	0,0
207	US Virgin Islands	844	0	0,0
208	British Virgin Islands	842	0	0,0
209	Anguilla	821	1	0,0
210	San Marino	811	-1	-13,0

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.