UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (September 2020)

The first two matchdays in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 have been played last week in the September window.

After the UNL group matches the November 2020 ranking will then be used to seed the draw of the 10 European qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

I've made 10.000 simulations of all the currently scheduled matches for UEFA teams to be played in the October and November windows. All probabilities in %.


First the EURO 2020 qualifying play-offs. I've made earlier simulations of the play-offs in November and December last year and July this year. Per participating team the probability to qualify for the path-final and then to win that final and qualify for EURO 2021:

Path A	to final	qualification
Iceland	70,19	45,23
Romania	29,81	21,31
Bulgaria	66,24	19,08
Hungary	33,76	14,38
Path B	to final	qualification
Slovakia	73,29	38,43
Bosnia-Herzegovina	76,59	35,37
Republic of Ireland	26,71	15,86
Northern Ireland	23,41	10,34
Path C	to final	qualification
Norway	71,20	51,16
Scotland	81,53	23,05
Serbia	28,80	21,63
Israel	18,47	4,16
Path D	to final	qualification
Georgia	77,89	40,53
North Macedonia	76,32	39,27
Kosovo	23,68	11,27
Belarus	22,11	8,93

Norway's hopes got a little boost with a good performance against Northern Ireland after a home defeat against Austria. Serbia had a lousy week, lost to Russia and could only manage a goalless draw at home against Turkey.


Then the final standings for the groups in the UEFA Nations League 2020:

group A-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Italy	53,60	27,88	15,80	2,72
Netherlands	31,26	43,44	19,30	6,00
Poland	13,83	24,01	50,11	12,05
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,31	4,67	14,79	79,23
group A-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Belgium	76,43	21,63	1,91	0,03
England	22,30	60,23	16,21	1,26
Denmark	1,20	16,28	63,48	19,04
Iceland	0,07	1,86	18,40	79,67
group A-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
France	55,96	38,79	5,00	0,25
Portugal	43,16	50,88	5,81	0,15
Croatia	0,71	7,91	58,45	32,93
Sweden	0,17	2,42	30,74	66,67
group A-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Spain	62,59	23,48	9,55	4,38
Germany	17,80	34,42	28,66	19,12
Ukraine	12,54	27,96	32,10	27,40
Switzerland	7,07	14,14	29,69	49,10
group B-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Romania	38,51	27,15	23,14	11,20
Austria	28,24	32,34	22,54	16,88
Norway	27,53	28,47	30,55	13,45
Northern Ireland	5,72	12,04	23,77	58,47
group B-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Czech Republic	41,94	32,83	16,39	8,84
Scotland	36,98	30,00	20,30	12,72
Slovakia	13,01	22,91	34,83	29,25
Israel	8,07	14,26	28,48	49,19
group B-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Russia	78,32	15,29	5,15	1,24
Serbia	6,90	32,10	30,21	30,79
Hungary	6,35	30,66	30,99	32,00
Turkey	8,43	21,95	33,65	35,97
group B-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Wales	79,44	15,03	4,74	0,79
Finland	12,25	48,82	24,80	14,13
Republic of Ireland	6,60	21,93	42,47	29,00
Bulgaria	1,71	14,22	27,99	56,08
group C-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Montenegro	85,79	11,33	2,71	0,17
Azerbaijan	8,16	32,02	44,55	15,27
Luxembourg	5,45	45,58	30,39	18,58
Cyprus	0,60	11,07	22,35	65,98
group C-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
North Macedonia	44,89	33,15	16,21	5,75
Georgia	38,66	36,38	20,87	4,09
Armenia	14,68	24,36	46,23	14,73
Estonia	1,77	6,11	16,69	75,43
group C-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Greece	67,52	27,49	4,23	0,76
Slovenia	26,69	47,19	22,87	3,25
Kosovo	5,20	22,92	57,17	14,71
Moldova	0,59	2,40	15,73	81,28
group C-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Albania	43,30	25,92	17,96	12,82
Belarus	32,36	35,26	19,99	12,39
Kazakhstan	13,30	22,04	36,20	28,46
Lithuania	11,04	16,78	25,85	46,33
group D-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Faroe Islands	71,81	20,20	6,73	1,26
Latvia	18,31	37,69	29,35	14,65
Malta	5,94	23,15	33,71	37,20
Andorra	3,94	18,96	30,21	46,89
group D-2	1st	2nd	3rd
Liechtenstein	64,00	35,10	0,90
Gibraltar	35,88	59,68	4,44
San Marino	0,12	5,22	94,66

First blows dealt by Italy, France, Portugal and Spain in League A. Romania, Scotland, Russia and Wales improved their chances to become group first in league B.
In league C good performances by Montenegro and Greece, while Georgia and North Macedonia will probably not only battle for the EURO 2021 qualification spot from path D but also for top spot in group C-2.
It was a good week for the Faroe Islands in league D. And what to say about San Marino. Even in a not particularly strong group D-2 they don't stand any chance.


Then the probabilities to reach and win the Nations League finals. In square brackets you find the probabilities to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.

team qualify for the UNL finals Belgium 76,43 Spain 62,59 France 55,96 Italy 53,60 Portugal 43,16 Netherlands 31,26 England 22,30 Germany 17,80 Poland 13,83 Ukraine 12,54 Switzerland 7,07 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1,31 Denmark 1,20 Croatia 0,71 Sweden 0,17 Iceland 0,07 team           qualify for the final Belgium 45,12 [59,03] Spain 39,74 [63,49] France 28,50 [50,93] Italy 24,01 [44,79] Portugal 18,63 [43,16] Netherlands 15,42 [49,33] Germany 9,06 [50,90] England 7,19 [32,24] Ukraine 4,55 [36,28] Poland 4,02 [29,07] Switzerland 3,00 [42,43] Denmark 0,29 [24,17] Croatia 0,24 [33,80] Bosnia-Herzegovina 0,20 [15,27] Sweden 0,02 [11,76] Iceland 0,01 [14,29] team                      win the title Belgium 31,94 [70,79] France 19,74 [69,26] Spain 14,92 [37,54] Portugal 11,93 [64,04] Italy 7,09 [29,53] Netherlands 5,48 [35,54] England 3,49 [48,54] Germany 2,48 [27,37] Ukraine 1,18 [25,93] Poland 0,88 [21,89] Switzerland 0,68 [22,67] Denmark 0,10 [34,48] Croatia 0,09 [37,50] Sweden 0,00 [0,00] Bosnia-Herzegovina 0,00 [0,00] Iceland 0,00 [0,00]

From the favourites the Dutch suffered the heaviest blow considering top spot in a league A group and subsequent qualifying for the UNL finals.



And finally the probabilities (in %) for each team to land in each pot for the WC qualifying draw. The teams are ordered by their average ranking position for UEFA teams in the November ranking (avg).

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4	pot 5	pot 6	avg
Belgium	100,00	0	0	0	0	0	1,03
France	100,00	0	0	0	0	0	1,97
England	100,00	0	0	0	0	0	3,38
Portugal	100,00	0	0	0	0	0	4,05
Spain	99,94	0,06	0	0	0	0	5,08
Croatia	99,15	0,85	0	0	0	0	6,50
Italy	97,48	2,52	0	0	0	0	7,39
Netherlands	90,83	9,17	0	0	0	0	8,38
Germany	86,12	13,88	0	0	0	0	8,66
Switzerland	62,71	37,29	0	0	0	0	9,74
--------------------------
Denmark	60,26	39,74	0	0	0	0	10,02
Sweden	2,19	97,81	0	0	0	0	12,74
Poland	1,23	98,77	0	0	0	0	13,02
Wales	0,07	99,93	0	0	0	0	13,60
Ukraine	0,02	99,98	0	0	0	0	14,55
Austria	0	96,97	3,03	0	0	0	16,90
Russia	0	76,40	23,60	0	0	0	19,02
Turkey	0	65,45	34,55	0	0	0	19,66
Serbia	0	61,91	38,09	0	0	0	19,75
Romania	0	55,16	44,84	0	0	0	20,28
--------------------------
Slovakia	0	52,35	47,65	0	0	0	20,48
Republic of Ireland	0	33,69	66,31	0	0	0	21,59
Norway	0	24,46	75,54	0	0	0	22,92
Northern Ireland	0	16,39	83,61	0	0	0	23,29
Iceland	0	14,94	85,06	0	0	0	23,63
Czech Republic	0	0,91	99,01	0,08	0	0	25,32
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0	0,79	95,43	3,78	0	0	27,31
Scotland	0	0,49	94,59	4,92	0	0	27,40
Greece	0	0	88,07	11,93	0	0	29,07
Hungary	0	0,09	76,83	23,08	0	0	29,08
--------------------------
Finland	0	0	25,06	74,94	0	0	31,27
Montenegro	0	0	5,00	95,00	0	0	32,27
Bulgaria	0	0	13,54	86,46	0	0	32,57
Slovenia	0	0	0,14	99,86	0	0	34,02
North Macedonia	0	0	0,05	99,95	0	0	34,88
Albania	0	0	0	100,00	0	0	35,20
Georgia	0	0	0	99,70	0,30	0	37,67
Belarus	0	0	0	99,87	0,13	0	37,94
Israel	0	0	0	99,28	0,72	0	38,55
Luxembourg	0	0	0	56,24	43,76	0	40,48
--------------------------
Cyprus	0	0	0	36,60	63,40	0	40,86
Armenia	0	0	0	8,25	91,75	0	41,75
Estonia	0	0	0	0	100,00	0	44,03
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	0	100,00	0	44,49
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	0	100,00	0	44,52
Kosovo	0	0	0	0,06	99,94	0	45,13
Kazakhstan	0	0	0	0	100,00	0	46,55
Lithuania	0	0	0	0	100,00	0	48,28
Latvia	0	0	0	0	100,00	0	49,10
Andorra	0	0	0	0	100,00	0	49,62
--------------------------
Moldova	0	0	0	0	0	100,00	51,10
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0	0	100,00	52,33
Malta	0	0	0	0	0	100,00	52,59
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0	0	100,00	53,98
San Marino	0	0	0	0	0	100,00	55,00

Major battles are between:

- Switzerland and Denmark for pot 1 (though Germany and the Netherlands are still within reach for both)

- Turkey, Serbia, Romania and Slovakia for 3 spots in pot 2 (though Russia and also Republic of Ireland and maybe Norway could still play a part here)

- Luxembourg and Cyprus for pot 4.

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.