Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the November 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on November 26th.
Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.
Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.
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ReplyDeleteThis is a great view toward the World Cup Qualifying draw. The minimum points are like a race, and from those, a friendly win is worth 10 points, and NL win worth 15 points.
ReplyDeleteIf Switzerland wins all 3 matches, while Germany and Italy win their friendly and one NL match, but lose the other, who will be ranked last between them?
Hi Amir, as there are 5 contestants in this race and each plays 3 matches (one friendly and 2 NL) a lot of possible combinations exist. For brevity see the latest UNL simulations. They give the most compact overview of the chances for each team in this race to stay in pot 1. Switzerland has clearly the lowest chance to stay a top seed.
ReplyDeleteIn your specific scenario with 3 wins for SUI and GER and ITA win two but lose their last NL-match (away to resp. ESP and BIH) the following ranking results:
GER 1609,88
ITA 1609,763
SUI 1609,758
Very, very close, but not decisive because the Netherlands will in this case (and with the rest of the matches going according to elo) be the one to drop to pot 2 with 1601 points :)
Hi Ed, Thank you very much, I phrase it like this to make it simple, but of course that if each one of the three would lose one more NL match than what I wrote, the differences would be the same (up to the order of results which make a very small change), and then The Netherlands would be predicted to be above them :)
ReplyDeleteThat's why I said that it's convenient to look at it as a "race" at this point.
Belgium, France, England, Portugal, Spain, and Croatia are guaranteed to be seeded for the European World Cup qualifying draw regardless even if each of them lost all three of their matches this November. Italy, Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands control their own destiny, but need to do some work with each of their three games. Switzerland, Poland, and Sweden are mathematically still alive, but they need some help and need to win their games. It looks like though that based on the ranking and upcoming schedule that Netherlands and Switzerland will determine who gets the #1 seed and who becomes the #2 seed. It is very unlikely that Poland or Sweden can overtake Netherlands or Switzerland for the #1 seed as they need lots of results to go their way while winning all three of their games. I think all the other #1 seeds will be rooting for the Netherlands to be the #1 seed because if they become the #2 seed they will be a dangerous #2 seed and they will be motivated to get back to the World Cup after missing out in 2018. Nobody would want to get the Netherlands as the #2 seed in their group if you are the #1 seed. They will be in peak physical and mental form for the World Cup qualifiers and will in all likelihood win their group even if they get the World Cup Champions France again. And this time around the playoffs will be more trickier as you have to play two different teams and beat both to get to the World Cup. When you have to win in a one playoff game, anything can happen. We seen so many times where in a one game playoff a team dominates but doesn't score and then the other team scores on one opportunity. Also other things like going to a penalty shoot out and a team getting a red card can happen to name the least.
ReplyDeleteHi Ed, if I may ask for one more scenario please after today's matches:
ReplyDeleteGermany loses to Ukraine, Spain loses to Swizerland, Spain beats Germany.
Italy loses to Poland, Bosnia beat Iran, The Netherlands, and Italy.
What would be Germany and Italy's ranking points?
Thanks,
Amir
A bit farfetched, don't you think :)
ReplyDeleteIn that case (and other matches according to elo) the following ranking around the 10th UEFA spot results:
Denmark 1613,88
Switzerland 1600,18
Italy 1595,28
Germany 1595,02
Netherlands 1586,94 (with the predicted draw against Poland. If the Dutch win then 1594,44. If POL wins then POL on 1588).
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ReplyDeleteYeah, I know, I asked because I made a simplification here:
ReplyDeletehttps://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtopic.php?p=448096#p448096
There is maximum error of 0.3 points in the FIFA Ranking using my simplification if the previous result of the opponent changes, and Italy vs Germany falls under this error:
https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtopic.php?p=448096#p448096
In other words, changing one other result for the opponent (W vs L) or the order for that team (WL vs LW) changes the team's rankings by no more than 0.3 points, but in this case it might matter.
Hello
ReplyDeleteWhat would mexico need for reaching the top 8 in fifa rankings this month?
After they’re win vs korea and
Colombia’s defeat and croatia and argentina’s draw?
Hello
ReplyDeleteWhat would mexico need
To reach the top 8 of fifa rankings?
After last night’s win and colombia’s defeat and croatia and Argentina’s draw
Hello
ReplyDeleteWhat would mexico need
To reach the top 8 of fifa rankings?
After last night’s win and colombia’s defeat and croatia and Argentina’s draw
Mexico is at the moment ranked on 9th spot. Elo predicts the 8th spot in the November ranking with the following results:
ReplyDeletePER-ARG draw
ECU-COL draw
JPN-MEX win Mexico
If Argentina wins in Peru they will pass Mexico anyway. Even with a win against Portugal Croatia will stay (barely) behind Mexico, provided that Mexico indeed wins the friendly.