Football rankings: FIFA ranking: November 2020 final preview

Thursday, November 19, 2020

FIFA ranking: November 2020 final preview

Here is the final preview of the November 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday November 26th. This ranking will be used to seed the UEFA teams for the draw of the European qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in pots of 10 teams. The draw is on December 7th.

The cancelled UNL-match Romania-Norway was awarded 3:0 to Romania and as such included in this ranking. It was just enough, together with the sudden collapse of Russia, to seed Romania in pot 2.

No news yet on the also cancelled match Switzerland-Ukraine. If that match is, as expected, awarded to Switzerland 7 points will be exchanged from Ukraine to the Swiss, compared to their respective points presented below.

And this November Week of Football already concludes NT-football for this strange year. There's currently only one match scheduled for the remainder of the year: an Asian WC qualifier between Qatar and Bangladesh, to give the Qatari's ample time to play next Summer's Copa America in June and the Gold Cup in July as guest team.

One team returns to their highest ranking:

Senegal (20 in July 2019)

One team records a new low:

Moldova (178 - 175 in June 2018)

Best movers:

10 - Equatorial Guinea, Burundi

7 - Romania, Hungary

Worst movers:

-9 - Libya

-7 - Iceland

-6 - Republic of Ireland, Lesotho, Andorra

Best movers in the top 50:

7 - Romania, Hungary

4 - Slovakia, Morocco

Worst movers in the top 50:

-7 - Iceland

-6 - Republic of Ireland

-5 - Colombia, Russia

Stay safe and healthy everybody !

pos	team	pts Nov.	+/- ranking	+/- points
1	Belgium	1779,53	0	15
2	France	1755,05	0	3
3	Brazil	1742,65	0	18
4	England	1670,25	0	1
5	Portugal	1662,23	0	1
6	Spain	1645,33	0	6
7	Argentina	1641,95	1	6
8	Uruguay	1639,08	-1	2
9	Mexico	1632,12	2	7
10	Italy	1624,77	2	13
11	Croatia	1616,77	-2	-17
12	Denmark	1613,88	1	4
13	Germany	1609,91	1	3
14	Netherlands	1608,88	1	13
15	Colombia	1600,66	-5	-30
16	Switzerland	1585,91	0	-3
17	Chile	1566,83	0	-3
18	Wales	1561,84	2	12
19	Poland	1558,88	-1	-9
20	Senegal	1558,37	1	9
20	Sweden	1557,53	-1	0
22	USA	1544,97	0	3
23	Austria	1530,94	2	8
24	Ukraine	1527,82	-1	-11
25	Peru	1511,88	-1	-21
26	Tunisia	1502,87	0	-4
27	Japan	1502,49	0	-1
28	Venezuela	1500,71	0	8
29	Iran	1496,25	0	4
30	Serbia	1494,69	0	6
31	Algeria	1487,67	-1	-1
32	Turkey	1486,98	1	1
33	Slovakia	1477,62	4	12
34	Paraguay	1476,02	1	0
35	Nigeria	1474,35	-3	-14
35	Morocco	1473,63	4	13
37	Romania	1465,63	7	11
38	Korea Republic	1464,89	0	1
39	Russia	1461,48	-5	-19
40	Hungary	1460,45	7	21
41	Australia	1457,49	1	0
42	Republic of Ireland	1456,50	-6	-11
42	Czech Republic	1455,79	3	10
44	Norway	1450,04	-1	-6
45	Northern Ireland	1440,02	-4	-18
46	Iceland	1438,18	-7	-23
47	Jamaica	1436,60	1	-1
48	Scotland	1436,32	-3	-10
49	Egypt	1432,32	3	12
50	Cameroon	1428,44	3	15
51	Costa Rica	1426,73	-1	0
52	Ghana	1424,22	-4	-14
53	Greece	1412,84	1	5
54	Finland	1411,40	1	9
55	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1409,98	-4	-14
56	Ecuador	1409,00	4	29
57	Mali	1408,43	-1	14
58	Burkina Faso	1391,29	0	1
59	Qatar	1387,49	-2	-4
60	Congo DR	1385,84	-1	2
61	Cote d'Ivoire	1384,21	0	6
62	Slovenia	1379,19	0	3
63	Montenegro	1370,00	1	1
64	Honduras	1366,64	-1	-7
65	North Macedonia	1362,33	0	6
66	Albania	1359,51	3	15
67	Saudi Arabia	1352,95	0	2
68	Bulgaria	1350,13	-2	-4
69	Iraq	1347,28	1	3
70	El Salvador	1345,73	-2	0
71	South Africa	1340,96	1	9
72	Canada	1331,56	0	0
73	United Arab Emirates	1326,36	1	-3
74	China PR	1322,96	1	0
75	Guinea	1316,87	-4	-16
76	Syria	1313,10	3	-1
76	Curacao	1312,96	5	0
78	Panama	1310,88	-1	-6
79	Uganda	1306,82	-3	-14
79	Bolivia	1306,81	0	-7
81	Cape Verde Islands	1305,83	-3	-10
82	Oman	1302,89	0	0
83	Benin	1301,60	0	2
84	Haiti	1284,80	3	0
85	Uzbekistan	1283,08	-1	-9
86	Gabon	1279,64	-2	-12
87	Israel	1279,36	1	4
88	Belarus	1268,84	2	-4
89	Georgia	1266,52	-3	-20
90	Zambia	1266,27	-1	-8
91	Congo	1264,27	2	2
92	Lebanon	1263,15	-1	-6
93	Vietnam	1258,06	1	0
94	Madagascar	1256,88	-2	-7
95	Jordan	1244,45	2	6
96	Kyrgyzstan	1240,08	0	0
97	Bahrain	1238,15	2	13
98	Luxembourg	1235,32	-3	-12
99	Armenia	1233,27	2	18
100	Cyprus	1223,75	-1	-1
101	Mauritania	1207,30	-3	-20
102	Palestine	1203,99	2	0
103	Trinidad and Tobago	1200,72	2	0
104	Kenya	1187,19	-1	-18
104	India	1186,98	4	0
106	Mozambique	1184,99	0	-15
107	Faroe Islands	1182,52	0	-10
108	Zimbabwe	1180,51	3	1
109	Azerbaijan	1180,39	5	5
109	Estonia	1179,98	0	-5
111	Thailand	1178,07	2	0
111	Libya	1177,80	-9	-31
113	Niger	1172,84	-1	-6
114	Central African Republic	1171,29	-4	-13
115	Korea DPR	1169,96	0	0
116	Sierra Leone	1164,82	4	14
117	Kosovo	1154,81	0	-3
118	New Zealand	1149,43	3	0
119	Namibia	1147,30	-3	-15
120	Guinea-Bissau	1145,99	-2	-9
121	Tajikistan	1142,96	1	-5
122	Kazakhstan	1141,72	-3	-11
123	Malawi	1139,86	0	-1
124	Philippines	1135,94	0	0
125	Angola	1134,19	-1	-2
126	Antigua and Barbuda	1127,35	0	0
127	Sudan	1124,11	1	14
128	Togo	1115,00	-2	-12
129	Lithuania	1113,61	1	9
130	Comoros	1112,13	2	17
131	Guatemala	1110,63	0	8
132	Turkmenistan	1106,51	-3	0
133	Rwanda	1099,27	0	10
134	Equatorial Guinea	1097,31	10	31
135	Tanzania	1085,25	-1	4
136	Latvia	1082,30	6	11
137	Myanmar	1081,26	-3	0
138	Chinese Taipei	1078,48	-2	0
138	Burundi	1077,93	10	20
140	St. Kitts and Nevis	1073,86	-3	0
141	Suriname	1073,39	-2	0
141	Solomon Islands	1072,78	-2	0
143	Lesotho	1072,02	-6	-2
143	Hong Kong	1072,00	-2	0
145	Yemen	1070,54	-3	0
146	Botswana	1065,76	3	11
147	Ethiopia	1064,09	-1	3
148	Kuwait	1059,94	-1	0
149	Nicaragua	1054,61	0	0
150	Afghanistan	1052,24	1	0
151	Andorra	1047,83	-6	-17
152	Liberia	1047,45	0	0
153	Malaysia	1040,02	1	0
153	Eswatini	1039,70	0	-2
155	Maldives	1038,31	0	0
156	New Caledonia	1035,12	0	0
157	Gambia	1034,21	0	12
158	Singapore	1020,27	0	0
159	Dominican Republic	1019,36	0	0
160	Grenada	1014,55	0	0
161	Tahiti	1014,27	0	0
162	Barbados	1008,78	0	0
163	South Sudan	997,86	5	15
164	Fiji	996,27	-1	0
164	Vanuatu	995,62	-1	0
166	Papua New Guinea	990,55	-1	0
167	Guyana	988,40	-1	0
168	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	985,75	-1	0
169	Bermuda	983,27	-1	0
170	Belize	973,98	0	0
171	Nepal	968,37	-1	-6
172	Mauritius	964,94	0	0
173	Indonesia	964,07	0	0
173	Cambodia	963,79	0	0
175	Chad	959,17	2	16
176	St. Lucia	953,45	0	0
177	Malta	951,37	3	17
178	Moldova	950,34	-3	-4
179	Puerto Rico	941,09	-1	0
180	Cuba	935,97	-1	0
181	Liechtenstein	924,09	0	-6
182	Macau	922,10	1	0
183	Montserrat	920,53	1	0
184	Bangladesh	920,46	3	6
185	Djibouti	918,91	0	0
185	Dominica	918,70	0	0
187	Sao Tomé e Príncipe	914,07	-5	-9
188	Laos	912,07	0	0
189	Bhutan	910,96	0	0
190	Mongolia	906,34	0	0
191	Brunei Darussalam	903,90	0	0
192	American Samoa	900,27	0	0
193	Cayman Islands	896,65	0	0
194	Samoa	894,26	0	0
195	Gibraltar	887,55	0	-2
196	Bahamas	879,61	0	0
197	Timor-Leste	879,43	0	0
197	Somalia	879,13	0	0
199	Guam	872,83	0	0
200	Aruba	867,44	0	0
200	Pakistan	866,81	0	0
202	Seychelles	865,69	0	0
203	Tonga	861,81	0	0
203	Turks and Caicos Islands	861,56	0	0
205	Eritrea	855,56	0	0
206	Sri Lanka	853,07	0	0
207	US Virgin Islands	844,16	0	0
208	British Virgin Islands	841,73	0	0
209	Anguilla	821,24	0	0
210	San Marino	810,17	0	-2

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

64 comments:

VikiNovember 21, 2020 at 1:16 AM
Just compared this ranking to the ELO one and there is an extreme difference for Ecuador (19 vs 56). Any reason for this?
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EdNovember 21, 2020 at 11:29 AM
Interesting question, we have to go back to October 2017 for an answer:

Ecuador was 35th in the September 2017 ranking and 26th in elo, then dropped suddenly to 60th in the FIFA October 2017 ranking because of two losses in CONMEBOL qualifying for the WC 2018 in October 2017 against Chile and Argentina. Their elo ranking dropped in October 2017 to 30th.

Their next match was in September 2018, so after the reformatting of the FIFA ranking calculation in June 2018. They started in that new calculation method as 60th. Since then they stayed closely around that 60th position in FIFA (between 58 and 66) while their elo ranking showed a bit more ups and downs (between 25 and 40).
It didn't help much that almost all their matches in the period September 2018 until this October (when the WC 2022 qualifiers finally started in South America) were friendlies. Only the Copa America 2019 was a potential source of big points, but precisely there they performed poorly with 1 draw and 2 losses.

Now in the November 2020 ranking Ecuador gains 29 FIFA points but only 4 spots to 56, but they jump from 28th to 19th in elo because of their two wins against Bolivia (+16 points) and especially Colombia which delivered a whopping 47 elo-points.

Conclusion: Ecuador was accidentally in a low spot in the FIFA ranking when the calculation method changed. The volatility of teams in the FIFA ranking was strongly diminished by the new method, so Ecuador struggles to gain substantial points. The volatility in the elo ranking in points is bigger, mainly because of the application of a higher I-factor.
Since then there's a gap of some 30 positions between FIFA and elo ranking for Ecuador, growing to 41 positions after this November ranking is published. This gap will eventually become smaller again but how long it will take Ecuador to close this gap nobody knows. It is safe to say that they are under-ranked at the moment in the FIFA-ranking.
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EdNovember 21, 2020 at 1:57 PM
Please, read 37 instead of 41 in the last paragraph.
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VikiNovember 21, 2020 at 10:30 PM
Thanks, Ed!
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AnonymousNovember 25, 2020 at 8:41 PM
UEFA awarded a 3-0 win to Switzerland against Ukraine.
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AnonymousNovember 26, 2020 at 12:43 PM
It means Ukraine is relegated to League B. Wow!
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EdNovember 27, 2020 at 12:52 PM
FIFA published the ranking today instead of yesterday. I don't know why.
The cancelled match Switzerland-Ukraine is not included in this ranking while UEFA already had declared the match a forfeited 3:0 win for Switzerland. At least, UEFA announced that for the next Nations League Switzerland remains in league A and Ukraine is relegated to league B and that can only be realised with an awarded 3:0 win for the Swiss. I haven't seen any other official confirmation from UEFA yet.
The cancelled match Romania-Norway (an awarded 3:0 win for Romania) is included in this ranking.

I have made a mistake in the final preview above: the AFCON qualifier Chad-Guinea ended in a 1:1 draw, but I had it incorrectly as a 3:1 win for Chad. The correct points for Chad are therefore 946,67 and for Guinea 1329,37.
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AnonymousNovember 27, 2020 at 4:38 PM
https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/disciplinary/updates/0263-10f07669c421-a1b7e2cc6859-1000--ab-switzerland-v-ukraine/

UEFA did publish its decision on Switzerland-Ukraine, with a loss to the visitors.
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EdNovember 27, 2020 at 5:34 PM
Note to all: in the section Important info at the top of this page you will find from now on the link to the sheet with detailed points calculations for all teams in the current FIFA ranking.
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HomerNovember 27, 2020 at 10:21 PM
FIFA included the Erhiopia v Zambia matches in the ranking even though both teams clearly used more than the allowed 6 subs. I doubt they agreed this with FIFA beforehand so those matches will probably be demoted in one of the next couple of rankings.
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AnonymousNovember 28, 2020 at 6:35 AM
The European World Cup Qualifying Draw will be interesting. I think that out of the #1 seeds the three that are most vulnerable not to make the world cup are Portugal, Belgium, and Denmark. I am not saying that these three are not capable of making it to the the WC, but they just feel vulnerable to not win their groups. This World Cup qualifying will be much harder to qualify as Euro 2020 was postponed. Many teams use Euro qualifying, the tournament itself if they qualify, and the Nations League to transition and build that chemistry & balance for the World Cup qualifiers, but with the postponement of Euro 2020 and the COVID situation, this WC qualifying cycle puts everyone at risk, especially the # 1 seeds. Also, not winning the group and assuming you make the playoffs will be trickier this time around as now you have to beat 2 different teams in two separate games. We saw many times big upsets happen when a team dominates but doesn't score and then the other team wins on one shot one goal. Also, you have to worry about not getting a red card and other unlucky things happen during a game. Imagine having to play two different games against two different opponents. And don't forget about if a game goes to penalties. A two legged playoff against one opponent favors the stronger teams, but having to win two games against two different opponent is dangerous for all teams who participate, including the strong and mighty. No question about it that you will see a few #1 seeds from Europe fail to qualify for the 2022 WC. My expert opinion is that Portugal is at high risk. They can't win a group without Rolando playing and in his prime. He needs to be on a scale out of 10 a 10 in peak prime form. He isn't no more and once he retires Portugal goes back to failing to qualify for World Cup's at an alarming rate like they have been doing before Ronaldo came onto the scene. Ronaldo is a special player that comes along once in a few decades in the entire world. Without Ronaldo, Portugal loses it's potency about 30% continuously. Portugal would not have qualified for many World Cups and had the interational football success it has had this century without Ronaldo. Without a special player like Ronaldo on Portugal's team, they are at best an above average team on a regular team. Remember that Portugal. Once Ronaldo retires then Portugal struggles to qualify for World Cups on a regular basis just like before he came onto the scene. Portugal better pray that Ronaldo can get them to one final WC before he retires as it will be a struggle this time as he is not the same Ronaldo as he was in years past. He is at the tail end of his prime. It's going to be tough.
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EdNovember 28, 2020 at 7:42 AM
I think I got your point :)

But I disagree, Portugal isn't that dependent on Ronaldo anymore. They have always had and still have excellent youth teams, so new talents will always emerge. But with several internationally highly regarded base players on midfield like Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Danilo Pereira and William Carvalho (plus excellent keeper Rui Patricio) and up and coming stars like Joao Felix, Diogo Jota and Francisco Trincao up front I see a bright near future for this team. And no one has to teach a Portuguese team how to defend.
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AnonymousNovember 30, 2020 at 4:20 AM
I want to point out something. And for everyone reading my post, I want everyone to read it and remember it for a very long time. Ronaldo was instrumental in helping Portugal qualify for the 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018 World Cups. He is a special player in a special category that comes around only once in 30 years. One player on the planet comes along every 30 years more or less. All these 4 World Cups that i mentioned Ronaldo was in perfect peak prime form. This 2022 World Cup qualifying will be Ronaldo's last and assuming he competes for the 2022 WC qualifiers, he will not be in a perfect peak primer form, but rather one step below it. My point is I always felt that without Ronaldo that Portugal would not qualified for all of the last World Cups. I personally don't believe that Portugal would of qualified for more that 1 of the last 4 World Cups without Ronaldo and him being in peak prime form, and if that. Having said that lets see how many of the next 4 World Cups (2022, 2026, 2030, 2034) Portugal will qualify for knowing that he won't be in perfect peak prime form for the 2022 World Cup qualifiers as he is on the tail end of his career + knowing he won't be there for the 2026, 2030, and 2034 World Cup qualifiers. I would be very surprised if Portugal qualified for more than one of the next four World Cup and quite honestly I wouldn't be surprised if they qualifies for none of the four. Before Ronaldo came onto the scene, Portugal would rarely qualify for a World Cup here and there. In my honest expert opinion, Ronaldo is the one that made a Portugal a world force instead of being at best an above average team continuously. Yes Portugal has always had throughout time quality skillful players on paper, but overall they for most of their history didn't have the overall players that would of made a world power on a regular basis. I always say to everyone Portugal was nothing special before he showed up on the scene and Portugal will be nothing special after he leaves the scene. Once he is not there anymore, Portugal will be the nation that struggles to qualify for World Cups on a regular basis and will rarely qualify for them. I want to say one more thing. I have nothing against Portugal and I am just making a point. I am a futbal historian and I constantly here commentators and annalists on TV say how great and special Portugal is. And I know when they say that they don't understand it from a historian perspective and analysis like I do. They don't understand that without Ronaldo, Portugal will for the most part always be a slightly above average team, but not a powerhouse like it is considered by the so called people today. I am very interested to see if Ronaldo will have enough in the tank one more time to get them to the World Cup one more time because I know they will rarely qualify after he retires i am 100% convinced. I feel they won't. They will need to win the group because I am so convinced that if they do manage to get 2nd place and go into the playoffs that they won't be able to win two separate games against two separate opponents to qualify for Qatar. And I see lots of #2, 3, and 4 seeds that are capable of beating Portugal if Ronaldo is a step below the level he has been the last decade and a half. My prediction is that Portugal will not qualify for the 2022 World Cup. I want everyone to remember all what I wrote here and see if I the expert historian and analyst is right. Also, if anyone want me to analyze the chances of a certain nation or nations for qualifying for the 2022 World Cup just ask me. Just make out the request to me "Anonymous"
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AnonymousDecember 1, 2020 at 4:16 AM
Anonymous. You sai a lot of bull.
You know nothing about football.
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AnonymousDecember 1, 2020 at 5:21 AM
Portugal was nothing before Ronaldo and they will be nothing after Ronaldo.
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AnonymousDecember 1, 2020 at 5:47 AM
I am going to say that with the COVID situation where any team is vulnerable to get positive COVID results and the fact that because of this pandemic that lots of teams haven't had time to jell new up and coming talent & the fact that now if you finish 2nd in your group that you have to win two separate games against two separate teams that there will be at the very least three #1 European seeds that fail to qualify for the World Cup. The only three #1 seeds that I am virtually 100% sure that they will win their group is England, Netherlands, and Croatia. Because the playoff situation is like this and will make even the strong and might teams vulnerable every # 1 seed will be desperate to win their group and avoid the playoffs. England, Netherlands, and Croatia are the only number 1 seeds that have jelled their teams. Forget about the Nations League and that these teams didn't do well. I studied and was reading what each team was doing during the Nations League games. These three teams clearly are thinking to not just qualify for the World Cup for sure, but will also try and go far in Qatar and have all the pieces in place to fight for the trophy. Croatia is a prime example. Ever since the 2018 World Cup ended use the Euro qualifiers and Nation League games to give young up and coming future National team regulars experience and games to jell and build that chemistry. Croatia during the Euro qualifiers were in a transition and giving so many youngsters a try and still won the group, which was the goal. And for the Nations League it was more of this and results were secondary. The experience, chemistry, and jelling was the most important thing. Now if lets say Croatia have eight players get COVID positive tests and not play and will have 8 solid players to fill in and still be dominant. I love what Croatia has done. Nobody sees this and nobody understands this. People- you should't just look at results as Nations League to try and determine who is good and who isn't. The Nations League is a time for many for transition, building chemistry, and jelling all geared towards the next World Cup cycle. Anyone who doesn't understand that the World Cup is the most important & toughest to qualify for and the most toughest to compete in is a fool. And whoever doesn't understand that using the Euros and Nations League to build for this is more of a fool.
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AnonymousDecember 1, 2020 at 6:13 AM
Hey, whoever is interested in making lots of money out there just listen to me and make these bets where they have such bets. Bet on that Portugal will not win their 2022 European World Cup qualifying Group & bet that Portugal will not qualify for the 2022 World Cup. I don't gamble on sports. That is me. I just don't bet, but all you people that do bet and especially all you people that bet fortunes, please just listen to me. Portugal will not win their group. They might not even come in second in their group and qualify for the playoffs. But even if they do manage to somehow squeak into the playoffs, they will not win two separate games against two different opponents. Guys trust me on this. I know what I am talking about. I know it and I feel it. Portugal will fail to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. I have two guarantees that I will make. (1) Portugal will fail to qualify for the 2022 World Cup & (2) England, Netherlands, and Croatia will qualify for the 2022 World Cup for sure and they will do so by each winning their respected groups. Again, these three will each qualify by winning their groups. The rest of the #1 European seed- Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and Denmark all have potential to qualify for the 2022 WC, but I feel along with Portugal at the very least two more from this list of six will fail to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. COVID plays a big factor and the fact that having to beat two different teams in the playoffs is very hard and anything can happen in any playoff game. Example, red card, penalty kick foul, one shot one goal, game goes to penalties, and etc.
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AnonymousDecember 1, 2020 at 9:45 PM
Anonymous. I bet you are Croatian.
Portugal have a fantastic young squad and beat this Cr9atia you so kuch praise 4x1 without Ronaldo, and 3x2 with a reserve squad full of youngsters.
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RobertDecember 2, 2020 at 1:38 AM
Although Anonymous (the first anonymous) seems to have a bit of an anti-Portugal bias, it's not impossible they will fail to qualify.

World Cups are much harder to qualify for than the European Championships now and regularly one of the big teams fails to make it. Italy of course failed to qualify for the last World Cup. It's likely that at least one will fail this time.

Of the top seeds, I would rank them in the order of being most at risk:

Croatia (controversial, but best players are ageing, laboured to qualify for the Euros)
Denmark (good Nations League tournament, but still more limited than others)
Germany (clearly not as strong as past German teams)
Portugal (always make hard running of qualifying)
England (they always get easy groups so will usually qualify unless they stuff it up completely)
Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands should all qualify comfortably.

Portugal are one of those who do not consistently win their group, though they usually qualify even when they don't.

Not winning your group is a bigger issue for World Cup than Euros.

I'd say Portugal have 80-90% chance to qualify, but that's not 100%.
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RobertDecember 2, 2020 at 1:42 AM
Also, one other factor is the lack of a "big team" in pot 2 for the draw, making it less likely for there to be a death trap for a team like Portugal. Although arguably Poland, Ukraine and Switzerland are perhaps better than Croatia and Denmark, and capable of holding their own with the "big teams".
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AnonymousDecember 2, 2020 at 9:33 AM
Poland is not better than Croatia and Denmark. I'm sure because I watched all their last matches. Poland now is very poor team. In pot 2 maybe Romania has worse team, maybe
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AnonymousDecember 3, 2020 at 12:10 AM
You can't put a lot of stock in Euro qualifying results and Nations League matches because all the nations use these matches to transition, jell, and build chemistry for the World Cup qualifiers. The Nations League is newly former. Every cycle it is going to be different teams winning the groups based on the fact that a lot of teams a transitioning. The Nations League was designed primarily to let the teams play a somewhat meaningful game instead of a friendly. These games are perfect for the transitions, jelling, and building that chemistry. And since only one team can win the group, most teams lose focus on winning the group after staring off badly. Then the focus become primarily to build the team for the future. England, Netherlands, and Croatia did the best in building for the future as #1 seeds. These are the only # 1 seeds that I would bet my life to make it to the World Cup if I was forced to pick three teams that would for sure make the 2022 World Cup. I think ever other #1 seed is vulnerable. COVID is a big factor. If a key starting player or two can't play because they got infected by COVID, England, Netherlands, and Croatia are the only teams in Europe that have players to replace the players infected WHERE THEY WOULD'T MISS A BEAT. From my observing each nation and what they did in these Nation League matches, their are many teams that have great players waiting to step in if anyone is unable to play because of COVID and/or Injury, but they WOULD MISS A BEAT. Even if it is a slight beat, still it could be very costly. And I keep stressing and will keep stressing that having to win two separate playoff games against two separate teams in order to make it to Qatar is very dangerous and even all the #1 seeds are vulnerable to not qualify through the playoffs if they have to go through them. You have COVID that could prevent key players from playing, anything in a game can happen, one shot on goal can kill of a strong and mighty team, penalties, red card, and the time has arrived where so many of these #2 and # 3 seeds and a few #4 seeds are so technically strong and capable of many things in a single playoff game. Imagine having to go through two playoff games. Every #1 seed knows how dangerously risky this playoff system is and each of them is going to do everything if possibly can to win their respected groups and avoid the playoffs. I am 100% convinced that Portugal and at the very least two other #1 seeds will not make the World Cup. And it might be even 4 or 5 possibly. I wouldn't be surprised. I wouldn't be surprised if of these- Italy, France, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, or Spain failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. I just know that Netherlands, England, and Croatia are the only teams that have jelled, transitioned, and built that chemistry where they are for sure going to win their groups and make it to the 2022 World Cup. The only 3.
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AnonymousDecember 3, 2020 at 12:24 AM
Hey ROBERT--Your Analysis is ridiculous. FYI, Italy failed to advance from it's group at Euro 2004 and then won the 2006 World Cup. Greece won Euro 2004 and failed to qualify for the 2006 World Cup. Spain won Euro 2012 and then failed to advance from it's group at the 2014 World Cup. Denmark didn't qualify for Euro 2016 and made it to the 2018 World Cup and made the Round of 16, while there were many that qualified for Euro 2016 and failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. Those are just a few examples there are more. Robert, only a fool like you (and I repeat like you) looks at Euro results and Nations League results try and figure out who is strong now and for the upcoming World Cup qualifiers. They key is to look underneath the surface and see what each nation is doing to prepare for the most important tournament and sporting event on the planet we all know as the World Cup. Only a fool Robert.
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EdDecember 3, 2020 at 7:58 AM
Shall we try to keep things civilized here? It's all opinions here, nothing more, nothing less. Thank you.
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AnonymousDecember 9, 2020 at 2:52 PM
Belgium, Wales and Czech Republic in 1 group means that there will be at least one of the top 7 NL group winners finishing outside the top 2 in their WCQ group.

That is not good news for Hungary and more so the Nations League C and D group winners who will now most likely need to finish in the top 2 in qualifying.
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AnonymousDecember 10, 2020 at 3:01 PM
I think it can confidently be assumed that all top seeds will qualify directly. The vulnerable top seeds (Denmark, Croatia, Portugal, Germany) got easy groups, and the strong teams of Pot 2 (Poland, Switzerland, Sweden) landed on even stronger top seeds.
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