Simulation of scheduled football matches

In this post I try to answer a few readers questions about the simulation system I use. At the same time I describe my research on possible improvements in the probability distribution functions I use in my simulation system.

Why simulate ?

The purpose of a simulation of football matches is to provide probabilities for each team, participating in a scheme of scheduled matches, to reach certain feats. The feats can be anything from just winning a single match to winning a group in a tournament or win the whole tournament. Also, because each scheduled match gets a result assigned to it during the simulation, dependent facts can be quantified, such as the resulting FIFA points (and thus the resulting ranking) of all participating teams after the scheduled matches are 'played'.

FIFA ranking: December 2020 final preview

Here is the final preview of the December 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday December 10th. 

Yesterday Qatar played the only Asian World Cup qualifier in 2020 against Bangladesh and won 5:0. I expect a small reshuffle of Qatar's remaining two qualfiiers to March next year so that they will have their hands free in June to prepare properly for the Copa America. In July they will also play the Gold Cup where they somehow managed to get invited. 

It seems everything is possible when you got money to throw at people. For instance robbing a spot in a final tournament on another continent at the cost of a team that's still in a qualification process to get there. Disgusting.. and then still be indignant that you are not 'loved' in the world. Will they ever learn ?

FIFA ranking: November 2020 final preview

Here is the final preview of the November 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday November 26th. This ranking will be used to seed the UEFA teams for the draw of the European qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in pots of 10 teams. The draw is on December 7th.

The cancelled UNL-match Romania-Norway was awarded 3:0 to Romania and as such included in this ranking. It was just enough, together with the sudden collapse of Russia, to seed Romania in pot 2.

No news yet on the also cancelled match Switzerland-Ukraine. If that match is, as expected, awarded to Switzerland 7 points will be exchanged from Ukraine to the Swiss, compared to their respective points presented below.

And this November Week of Football already concludes NT-football for this strange year. There's currently only one match scheduled for the remainder of the year: an Asian WC qualifier between Qatar and Bangladesh, to give the Qatari's ample time to play next Summer's Copa America in June and the Gold Cup in July as guest team.

FIFA ranking November 2020: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA November 2020 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

FIFA ranking November 2020: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the November 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on November 26th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: November 2020 probable ranking

The upcoming November FIFA window will see the return of African competitive NT-football. They resume their AFCON 2021 (already postponed to January 2022) qualifying campaign with match days 3 and 4 of 6. CONMEBOL continues their qualifying campaign for the World Cup 2022 with match days 3 and 4 of 18 and UEFA continues with the last two match days in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2021. Also this window is extended with 1 day for UEFA teams so there is room for a third match day which will be filled with the single-leg finals of the four EURO 2021 qualifying play-off paths. Of the other 47 UEFA teams only Armenia will not play a friendly on that day.

There are also a few friendlies scheduled for CONCACAF and AFC teams although their competitive matches are postponed to March next year.

FIFA ranking: November 2020 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including November 22nd, used to calculate the November 2020 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since October 19th, (probably) counting for the November ranking, are presented.

UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (October 2020)

Matchdays three and four in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 have been played last week in the October window.

After the UNL group matches the November 2020 ranking will then be used to seed the draw of the 10 European qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

I've made 10.000 simulations of all the currently scheduled matches for UEFA teams to be played in the November window. All probabilities in %.

FIFA ranking: October 2020 final preview

Here is the final preview of the October 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday October 22nd.

Best movers:

6 - Malta

5 - Algeria, Paraguay, Hungary

Worst movers:

-10 - Romania

-8 - Andorra

-6 - Bulgaria

FIFA ranking: October 2020 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 22nd.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: October 2020 probable ranking

The upcoming October FIFA window will see plenty of action. CONMEBOL will finally start with their qualifying campaign for the World Cup 2022 and will play their first two match days. UEFA continues with match days 3 and 4 in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2021. Because the window is extended with 1 day for UEFA teams there is room for a third matchday which will be filled with the single-leg semi-finals of the four EURO 2021 qualifying play-off paths. Of the other 39 UEFA teams only Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan will not play a friendly on that day.

FIFA ranking: October 2020 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA October 2020 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

FIFA ranking: October 2020 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including October 18th, used to calculate the October 2020 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since September 14th, (probably) counting for the October ranking, are presented.

CONMEBOL qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (september 2020)

This week CONMEBOL finally confirmed the plans for their World Cup qualifiers. They will start as expected next month with their 18 match days encompassing qualification. If they play two MD's per FIFA window they will also need the June 2021 window (one week before the start of their postponed Copa America) in order to be able to finish in March 2022. That seems not very desirable  and it remains to be seen if they maybe will follow the UEFA and divert their two June MD's to two other windows in 2021.

UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (September 2020)

The first two matchdays in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 have been played last week in the September window.

After the UNL group matches the November 2020 ranking will then be used to seed the draw of the 10 European qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

I've made 10.000 simulations of all the currently scheduled matches for UEFA teams to be played in the October and November windows. All probabilities in %.

FIFA ranking: September 2020 final preview

In the end only the first 2 match days in the UEFA Nations League 2020 group stage and one AFC-friendly for a total of 55 matches were played this window. But not to complain, I'm glad there's some NT-football again.

The prospects for the October and November window are still uncertain. UEFA will continue their schedule, but CONCACAF and AFC have again postponed all NT-activity, now until March next year. Further adaptations to their WC-qualifying formats seems inevitable or they have to revert to 3 matches in a FIFA-window, like UEFA does partially already.
Still no word from CONMEBOL. However, if they want to complete their qualifying format (requiring 18 MD's) in time, they should start no later than October. CAF has scheduled their first competitive matches for CAF Nations Cup qualification in November. No NT-activity in OFC this year.

FIFA ranking: September 2020 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA September 2020 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: September 2020 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the September 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on September 17th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: September 2020 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including September 13th, used to calculate the September 2020 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: September 2020 probable ranking

After a 9 months absence of competitive international football (and a half year of any NT football) it seems that the upcoming September FIFA-window will finally see the cautious return of international football: UEFA will start with the UEFA Nations League 2020/21 group matches as scheduled.

CONCACAF published three weeks ago a new format for their World Cup qualification scheduled to start in the October window. Coming wednesday the draw will be performed in Zurich.
AFC on the other hand last week decided to postpone their already rescheduled WC-qualifiers (from March and June to October and November) again to March 2021. A reformatting of their current qualification process seems inevitable with these delays.
OFC published last month a proposal for their WC qualifying format, scheduled to start in March 2021, but not a word about the postponed OFC Nations Cup 2020.
CONMEBOL and CAF were until now also very silent about the start of their WC qualifying campaigns. If they start this year, it will not be earlier than October though.

UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (July 2020)

UEFA is the first confederation to draw up a schedule of matches for National Teams in coming Autumn. After the postponement of the EURO 2020 to 2021 they still had to find room in the calendar for the one-off semi-finals and finals in the four paths to decide the last 4 berths in the EUROs. They found that room by stretching both October and November windows by one day to accommodate 3 match days in each window. In that way they could also maintain the already scheduled group matches for the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 this Autumn. There's even room now for some of the postponed friendlies from the March and/or June window.

FIFA ranking: June 2020 final preview

FIFA postponed/canceled all NT-matches for the June window. The UEFA EURO 2020 and the Copa America 2020 were earlier already postponed to June next year.

Already looking forward to the Autumn: there's no confirmed information about the UEFA Nations League and the schedule for the World Cup qualifiers. I guess NT football is at the very end of the line when it comes to reinstating football matches, behind closed doors or not.

FIFA will publish the (completely unchanged) June ranking next Thursday June 11th.

Stay safe and healthy everybody !

FIFA ranking: April 2020 final preview

And then there was a pandemic that suddenly shut down all football for the foreseeable future....

FIFA last week postponed/canceled all NT-matches for the June window. The UEFA EURO 2020 and the Copa America 2020 were earlier already postponed to June next year.

FIFA will publish the April ranking next Thursday April 9th.

Stay safe and healthy everybody !

UEFA qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (March 2020)

Last week the groups for the UEFA Nations League 2020 were drawn. Now that also that schedule of matches is known (6 match days to be played this Autumn) a first peek can be offered at the probabilities for each UEFA team to land in each pot for the draw of the UEFA qualification groups for the World Cup 2022. This draw will take place on November 29th and the teams will be seeded according to the FIFA November 2020 ranking. There will be 10 groups (5 of 5 teams and 5 of 6 teams) drawn.

FIFA ranking: April 2020 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA April 2020 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: April 2020 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the April 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on April 9th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: April 2020 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including April 5th, used to calculate the April 2020 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since February 16th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: April 2020 probable ranking

At last the waiting is over: a lot of competitive international matches will be played coming March window. Besides a fair amount of friendlies for (mostly) UEFA teams
- Europe decides via 8 semi-final and 4 final qualification play-offs the final four berths for EURO 2020, 
- Africa plays MD's 3 and 4 (of 6 in total) in CAF Nations Cup 2021 qualification,
- South America starts with the first two MD's in their long, 18 matchdays encompassing WC 2022 qualification,
- Asia continues with MD's 7 and 8 (of 10 in total) in their WC 2022 qualification,
- CONCACAF plays the first stage of home-and-away qualification semi-final play-offs, to be concluded in June with 4 final home-and-away play-offs to fill the final four berths for the Gold Cup 2021,
- and even Oceania sees some action (although still nothing is officially scheduled): a round-robin qualification tournament between the four lowest ranked teams to decide one berth in the OFC Nations Cup 2020, to be played in June in New Zealand. If everything goes as planned we will witness the first match of the Cook Islands since September 2015 and they will be incorporated in the FIFA ranking again. By the way, the format for OFC qualification for WC 2022 is still unclear, but first matches are expected to be played in September this year already. Anyway, it's awfully quiet with news from that distant region.

Here is the probable April 2020 ranking, to be published on April 9th.

FIFA ranking: February 2020 final preview

FIFA will publish the first ranking of this year next Thursday February 20th.

Not much happened last months: the friendly Bangabandhu Cup was played in Bangladesh and a few other friendlies were played. 

Result of all the efforts of Canada and El Salvador is still a 12-point lead for El Salvador in the fight for the 6th CONCACAF-spot in the ranking. 
Biggest points-exchange (2.7 points) was in the final group match of the East Asian Championship between Korea Republic and Japan, won by Korea Republic with 1:0. With that they secured their third consecutive cup win in East Asia and fifth overall since the first edition of this bi-annual championship in 2003.

FIFA ranking: February 2020 probable results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA February 2020 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.
Also the already played matches since December 16th, (probably) counting for the February ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: February 2020 probable ranking

These are quiet times in international football. Only the final matchday of the East Asian Championship 2019 and a few friendlies are played since the December 2019 ranking. The Bangabandhu Cup in Bangladesh (counting as friendlies) and some more friendlies are scheduled.

But there's something to spice it up: the fight for the final place in the CONCACAF Hexagonal this autumn between El Salvador and Canada is already casting it's shadow ahead. At the moment there's only a 15 points gap between them in favor of El Salvador, but both have only friendlies to play between now and the July 2020 ranking to improve or maintain position. The July ranking will probably be used to seed the draw for the CONCACAF qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as there is no June 2020 ranking foreseen by FIFA.