AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

Only a single match was played in the Asian qualification for the World Cup last year. The last four match days of the second round are rescheduled now for the coming March and June windows. After the Summer round three, consisting of 2 groups of 6 teams, will commence. The 12 qualified teams will be put in 6 pots of two. Which FIFA ranking (June or July) is used for seeding is yet unknown, because the publication schedule for 2021 is not yet published.

The AFC managed to keep the same qualification format. The matches for round three are now scheduled from September until March 2022. And the next step -where the Asian number 5 is determined between the two group numbers 3- is scheduled in June 2022 as a single match now. In that same June window the interconfederational play-offs (with the Asian number 5) are staged.

See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup of Nations 2023 in China.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Syria	89,65	10,34	0,01	0,00	0,00
China PR	10,35	85,86	3,77	0,02	0,00
Philippines	0,00	3,76	94,44	1,80	0,00
Maldives	0,00	0,04	1,78	98,15	0,03
Guam	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,03	99,97
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Australia	99,40	0,59	0,01	0,00	0,00
Kuwait	0,37	61,05	38,58	0,00	0,00
Jordan	0,23	38,36	61,39	0,02	0,00
Nepal	0,00	0,00	0,02	92,94	7,04
Chinese Taipei	0,00	0,00	0,00	7,04	92,96
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Iran	55,00	30,02	14,95	0,03	0,00
Iraq	38,21	50,04	11,75	0,00	0,00
Bahrain	6,79	19,92	73,24	0,05	0,00
Hong Kong	0,00	0,02	0,06	99,91	0,01
Cambodia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	99,99
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Saudi Arabia	70,82	26,94	2,03	0,13	0,08
Uzbekistan	28,96	68,20	2,38	0,44	0,02
Palestine	0,10	3,01	70,57	18,07	8,25
Singapore	0,11	1,46	16,17	63,36	18,90
Yemen	0,01	0,39	8,85	18,00	72,75
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Qatar	65,16	34,84	0,00	0,00	0,00
Oman	34,84	65,14	0,02	0,00	0,00
India	0,00	0,01	60,59	33,46	5,94
Afghanistan	0,00	0,01	35,44	51,28	13,27
Bangladesh	0,00	0,00	3,95	15,26	80,79
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Japan	100,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Kyrgyzstan	0,00	51,16	47,14	1,69	0,01
Tajikistan	0,00	45,59	50,59	3,81	0,01
Myanmar	0,00	3,25	2,25	93,74	0,76
Mongolia	0,00	0,00	0,02	0,76	99,22
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Vietnam	49,99	33,74	13,31	2,96	0,00
United Arab Emirates	34,97	28,55	25,69	10,79	0,00
Thailand	12,24	30,65	41,25	15,84	0,02
Malaysia	2,80	7,06	19,75	70,39	0,00
Indonesia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,02	99,98
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Korea Republic	99,11	0,76	0,12	0,01	0,00
Korea DPR	0,36	53,17	34,01	12,46	0,00
Lebanon	0,33	28,70	37,95	33,02	0,00
Turkmenistan	0,20	17,37	27,92	54,51	0,00
Sri Lanka	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00

The probabilities to qualify for the third round in WCq (numbers 1 from each group plus the best 4 group runners-up; when Qatar is among those teams the fifth best runner-up also qualifies as their replacement):

Japan	100,00
Australia	99,99
Syria	99,98
Korea Republic	99,70
Oman	98,23
China PR	92,69
Iraq	87,17
Saudi Arabia	86,78
Iran	84,49
Vietnam	70,43
Uzbekistan	60,14
United Arab Emirates	51,29
Kuwait	50,68
Jordan	33,60
Thailand	26,18
Bahrain	25,63
Korea DPR	11,51
Lebanon	7,54
Malaysia	5,57
Turkmenistan	3,09
Philippines	2,76
Kyrgyzstan	1,41
Tajikistan	0,91
Singapore	0,11
Palestine	0,10
Myanmar	0,01
Yemen	0,01
India	0,00
Afghanistan	0,00
Maldives	0,00
Guam	0,00
Nepal	0,00
Chinese Taipei	0,00
Hong Kong	0,00
Cambodia	0,00
Qatar	0,00
Bangladesh	0,00
Mongolia	0,00
Indonesia	0,00
Sri Lanka	0,00

The probability to qualify for round three as one of the best four (or five) group runners-up per group:

group E	95,28
group A	90,31
group C	88,17
group B	67,40
group G	27,42
group D	24,42
group H	6,02
group F	0,98

The seeding pots for the draw of the third qualification round. The teams are ordered by weighted average ranking position after round two is finished:

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4	pot 5	pot 6
Japan	99,82	0,18	0	0	0	0
Iran	84,47	0,02	0	0	0	0
Korea Republic	13,16	86,54	0	0	0	0
Australia	2,55	97,44	0	0	0	0
Saudi Arabia	0	8,38	73,35	5,04	0,01	0
Iraq	0	6,59	57,88	22,63	0,07	0
China PR	0	0,50	38,40	46,00	7,79	0
Syria	0	0	6,32	47,44	44,93	1,29
Oman	0	0	1,57	41,89	52,74	2,03
United Arab Emirates	0	0,35	22,30	28,49	0,15	0,00
Vietnam	0	0	0	0,29	27,88	42,26
Uzbekistan	0	0	0,18	7,91	42,40	9,65
Kuwait	0	0	0	0	0	50,68
Jordan	0	0	0	0,04	5,21	28,35
Bahrain	0	0	0	0,15	12,18	13,30
Thailand	0	0	0	0	1,47	24,71
Korea DPR	0	0	0	0	0,43	11,08
Lebanon	0	0	0	0,11	3,90	3,53
Malaysia	0	0	0	0	0,01	5,56
Turkmenistan	0	0	0	0	0,04	3,05
Philippines	0	0	0	0	0,11	2,65
Kyrgyzstan	0	0	0	0,01	0,63	0,77
Tajikistan	0	0	0	0	0,03	0,88
Palestine	0	0	0	0	0,02	0,08
Singapore	0	0	0	0	0	0,11
Yemen	0	0	0	0	0	0,01
Myanmar	0	0	0	0	0	0,01

The probabilities to qualify for the AFC Cup of Nations 2023 in China - 1 to 12:

Japan	100,00
Australia	99,99
Syria	99,93
Qatar	99,71
Korea Republic	99,42
Oman	95,57
China PR	88,20
Iraq	84,40
Iran	81,75
Saudi Arabia	80,35
Vietnam	61,88
Uzbekistan	43,85
United Arab Emirates	43,53
Kuwait	40,08
Jordan	27,33
Bahrain	22,02
Thailand	18,42
Malaysia	3,59
Korea DPR	3,22
Lebanon	2,31
Philippines	2,18
Turkmenistan	1,07
Kyrgyzstan	0,59
Tajikistan	0,39
Singapore	0,11
Palestine	0,10
Yemen	0,01

To qualify for the Asian third qualification round - 13 to 28 (or 29 if China is in this group):

Tajikistan	99,49
Kyrgyzstan	99,28
Turkmenistan	98,89
Lebanon	97,69
Philippines	97,64
Korea DPR	96,78
Malaysia	96,40
Palestine	88,68
Thailand	81,54
Bahrain	77,98
Jordan	72,67
India	71,27
Singapore	68,70
Kuwait	59,92
United Arab Emirates	56,31
Uzbekistan	56,13
Afghanistan	49,92
Myanmar	48,67
Vietnam	38,12
Maldives	35,99
Yemen	24,85
Saudi Arabia	19,56
Iran	18,25
Iraq	15,60
Hong Kong	13,28
China PR	11,80
Nepal	5,72
Bangladesh	5,06
Oman	4,43
Korea Republic	0,58
Qatar	0,29
Mongolia	0,15
Syria	0,07
Chinese Taipei	0,05
Indonesia	0,02
Australia	0,01
Guam	0,01
Japan	0,00
Cambodia	0,00
Sri Lanka	0,00

To qualify for the play-offs for the Asian third qualification round - 29 (or 30) to 40:

Cambodia	100,00
Sri Lanka	100,00
Guam	99,99
Indonesia	99,98
Chinese Taipei	99,95
Mongolia	99,85
Bangladesh	94,94
Nepal	94,28
Hong Kong	86,72
Yemen	75,14
Maldives	64,01
Myanmar	51,33
Afghanistan	50,08
Singapore	31,19
India	28,73
Palestine	11,22
Philippines	0,18
United Arab Emirates	0,16
Kyrgyzstan	0,13
Tajikistan	0,12
Saudi Arabia	0,09
Turkmenistan	0,04
Thailand	0,04
Uzbekistan	0,02
Malaysia	0,01

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