Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic CONCACAF has adjusted their initially proposed qualification format for the World Cup to the following process:
- a group stage with 6 groups of 5 teams. Each team plays 2 home matches and 2 away matches against the other group opponents this March and June.
- the 6 group winners play (still in June) in 3 two-legged play-offs for a place in the octogonal. The pairing of these group winners in the play-offs is fixed: winner A plays F, winner B plays E and winner C plays D.
- a final group stage with 8 teams in a double round-robin format (octogonal) from September to March 2022. The top 5 from the July 2020 ranking (Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras) is automatically qualified for this stage.
- the top 3 of the octogonal qualifies for Qatar; number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs in June 2022.
This crowded schedule can only be realised because the June window contains 4 MD's and the September, October, January and March windows will contain 3 MD's each.
The postponed Final Four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 between Mexico, USA, Costa Rica and Honduras is now scheduled for this June.
And the final qualification stages for the Gold Cup 2021 were also postponed last year. With Qatar suddenly invited as guest, the 12 teams will now play in three 4-team paths for the 3 remaining berths in the tournament. Each path consists of two one-off semi-finals and a final. These play-off paths are to be played in the first week of July, directly prior to the Gold Cup itself. The composition of the paths and the Gold Cup groups were drawn last September already. The match schedule for the Gold Cup is still to be revealed though.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.
First the round 1 qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group.
|
group A |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
El
Salvador |
81,87 |
14,25 |
3,50 |
0,34 |
0,04 |
|
Grenada |
10,25 |
43,83 |
40,24 |
5,21 |
0,47 |
|
Antigua
and Barbuda |
7,66 |
39,18 |
41,86 |
9,26 |
2,04 |
|
Montserrat |
0,18 |
2,20 |
10,80 |
63,77 |
23,05 |
|
US Virgin
Islands |
0,04 |
0,54 |
3,60 |
21,42 |
74,40 |
|
group B |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
Canada |
82,30 |
13,83 |
3,46 |
0,37 |
0,04 |
|
Suriname |
10,61 |
47,89 |
34,85 |
5,71 |
0,94 |
|
Bermuda |
6,95 |
36,12 |
50,87 |
5,37 |
0,69 |
|
Cayman
Islands |
0,10 |
0,98 |
5,70 |
53,88 |
39,34 |
|
Aruba |
0,04 |
1,18 |
5,12 |
34,67 |
58,99 |
|
group C |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
Guatemala |
51,75 |
32,65 |
12,14 |
3,41 |
0,05 |
|
Curacao |
35,22 |
34,36 |
20,78 |
9,42 |
0,22 |
|
Cuba |
9,98 |
21,48 |
34,94 |
33,27 |
0,33 |
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
3,05 |
11,51 |
32,05 |
52,66 |
0,73 |
|
British
Virgin Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,09 |
1,24 |
98,67 |
|
group D |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
Panama |
89,20 |
9,21 |
1,35 |
0,23 |
0,01 |
|
Dominican
Republic |
6,35 |
54,23 |
26,92 |
11,66 |
0,84 |
|
Barbados |
2,70 |
25,07 |
45,01 |
26,45 |
0,77 |
|
Dominica |
1,75 |
11,46 |
26,37 |
58,11 |
2,31 |
|
Anguilla |
0,00 |
0,03 |
0,35 |
3,55 |
96,07 |
|
group E |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
Haiti |
89,61 |
8,51 |
1,49 |
0,37 |
0,02 |
|
Nicaragua |
6,65 |
52,42 |
26,08 |
11,37 |
3,48 |
|
Belize |
2,39 |
27,72 |
43,41 |
22,05 |
4,43 |
|
St. Lucia |
1,31 |
10,08 |
24,34 |
50,36 |
13,91 |
|
Turks and
Caicos Islands |
0,04 |
1,27 |
4,68 |
15,85 |
78,16 |
|
group F |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
Trinidad
and Tobago |
59,03 |
23,69 |
11,23 |
4,70 |
1,35 |
|
Guyana |
18,81 |
33,48 |
32,58 |
12,09 |
3,04 |
|
St. Kitts
and Nevis |
18,85 |
32,46 |
29,98 |
13,24 |
5,47 |
|
Puerto
Rico |
2,28 |
6,41 |
16,58 |
43,57 |
31,16 |
|
Bahamas |
1,03 |
3,96 |
9,63 |
26,40 |
58,98 |
The group winners qualify for round 2:
|
| |
|
Haiti |
89,61 |
|
Panama |
89,20 |
|
Canada |
82,30 |
|
El
Salvador |
81,87 |
|
Trinidad
and Tobago |
59,03 |
|
Guatemala |
51,75 |
|
Curacao |
35,22 |
|
St. Kitts
and Nevis |
18,85 |
|
Guyana |
18,81 |
|
Suriname |
10,61 |
|
Grenada |
10,25 |
|
Cuba |
9,98 |
|
Antigua
and Barbuda |
7,66 |
|
Bermuda |
6,95 |
|
Nicaragua |
6,65 |
|
Dominican
Republic |
6,35 |
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
3,05 |
|
Barbados |
2,70 |
|
Belize |
2,39 |
|
Puerto
Rico |
2,28 |
|
Dominica |
1,75 |
|
St. Lucia |
1,31 |
|
Bahamas |
1,03 |
|
Montserrat |
0,18 |
|
Cayman
Islands |
0,10 |
|
US Virgin
Islands |
0,04 |
|
Aruba |
0,04 |
|
Turks and
Caicos Islands |
0,04 |
|
British
Virgin Islands |
0,00 |
|
Anguilla |
0,00 |
To win a play-off and qualify for the octogonal (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 2):
|
Panama |
61,33 |
[68,76] |
|
|
Haiti |
52,74 |
[58,86] |
|
|
El
Salvador |
51,08 |
[62,39] |
|
|
Canada |
41,34 |
[50,23] |
|
|
Trinidad
and Tobago |
29,10 |
[49,30] |
|
|
Guatemala |
21,24 |
[41,04] |
|
|
Curacao |
12,07 |
[34,27] |
|
|
Guyana |
7,11 |
[37,80] |
|
|
St. Kitts
and Nevis |
6,74 |
[35,76] |
|
|
Grenada |
3,29 |
[32,10] |
|
|
Suriname |
2,15 |
[20,26] |
|
|
Antigua
and Barbuda |
2,12 |
[27,68] |
|
|
Cuba |
2,02 |
[20,24] |
|
|
Dominican
Republic |
1,93 |
[30,39] |
|
|
Nicaragua |
1,58 |
[23,76] |
|
|
Bermuda |
1,39 |
[20,00] |
|
|
Barbados |
0,71 |
[26,30] |
|
|
Belize |
0,57 |
[23,85] |
|
|
Puerto
Rico |
0,40 |
[17,54] |
|
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
0,38 |
[12,46] |
|
|
Dominica |
0,32 |
[18,29] |
|
|
St. Lucia |
0,21 |
[16,03] |
|
|
Bahamas |
0,14 |
[13,59] |
|
|
Montserrat |
0,02 |
[11,11] |
|
|
Cayman
Islands |
0,01 |
[10,00] |
|
|
Turks and
Caicos Islands |
0,01 |
[25,00] |
The octogonal and in column labeled WCq the probability to qualify for the World Cup. The group number 4 qualifies for the interconfederational play-off. Teams are ordered by their weighted average group position.
|
octogonal
(stage 3) |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
7th |
8th |
WCq |
|
Mexico |
73,51 |
17,63 |
5,59 |
1,90 |
0,88 |
0,30 |
0,14 |
0,05 |
96,73 |
|
USA |
15,29 |
34,88 |
20,38 |
12,87 |
8,06 |
4,83 |
2,74 |
0,95 |
70,55 |
|
Costa Rica |
3,42 |
12,33 |
17,32 |
18,20 |
16,46 |
14,44 |
11,69 |
6,14 |
33,07 |
|
Honduras |
2,81 |
11,96 |
16,33 |
17,00 |
16,55 |
15,12 |
13,08 |
7,15 |
31,10 |
|
Jamaica |
1,51 |
7,13 |
13,53 |
16,36 |
18,29 |
17,58 |
15,86 |
9,74 |
22,17 |
|
Canada |
1,25 |
5,49 |
7,54 |
7,68 |
6,63 |
5,89 |
4,53 |
2,33 |
14,28 |
|
Haiti |
1,00 |
4,09 |
6,91 |
8,49 |
9,04 |
9,32 |
8,49 |
5,40 |
12,00 |
|
Panama |
0,73 |
3,35 |
6,05 |
8,12 |
10,18 |
12,12 |
11,93 |
8,85 |
10,13 |
|
Guatemala |
0,21 |
0,97 |
2,08 |
2,46 |
3,25 |
3,99 |
4,39 |
3,89 |
3,26 |
|
El
Salvador |
0,23 |
1,75 |
3,01 |
4,25 |
6,55 |
8,74 |
11,52 |
15,03 |
4,99 |
|
Curacao |
0,02 |
0,24 |
0,58 |
1,14 |
1,31 |
2,22 |
3,38 |
3,18 |
0,84 |
|
Suriname |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,04 |
0,12 |
0,16 |
0,31 |
0,52 |
0,99 |
0,05 |
|
Bermuda |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,02 |
0,07 |
0,10 |
0,21 |
0,40 |
0,59 |
0,02 |
|
Trinidad
and Tobago |
0,01 |
0,15 |
0,58 |
1,16 |
1,90 |
3,29 |
6,42 |
15,59 |
0,74 |
|
Cuba |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,04 |
0,15 |
0,28 |
0,53 |
1,01 |
0,01 |
|
Belize |
0,01 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,03 |
0,03 |
0,11 |
0,38 |
0,01 |
|
Nicaragua |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
0,06 |
0,10 |
0,37 |
1,04 |
0,01 |
|
Montserrat |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
|
Guyana |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,01 |
0,04 |
0,18 |
0,42 |
1,27 |
5,18 |
0,02 |
|
Grenada |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
0,04 |
0,07 |
0,19 |
0,52 |
2,46 |
0,01 |
|
Dominican
Republic |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,04 |
0,12 |
0,36 |
1,41 |
0,00 |
|
St. Kitts
and Nevis |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,04 |
0,08 |
0,37 |
1,16 |
5,08 |
0,01 |
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
0,10 |
0,27 |
0,00 |
|
Barbados |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,03 |
0,12 |
0,55 |
0,00 |
|
Antigua
and Barbuda |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,01 |
0,09 |
0,27 |
1,74 |
0,00 |
|
St. Lucia |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,02 |
0,18 |
0,00 |
|
Dominica |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,05 |
0,27 |
0,00 |
|
Puerto
Rico |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,02 |
0,38 |
0,00 |
|
Bahamas |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,14 |
0,00 |
|
Cayman
Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
|
Turks and
Caicos Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
The CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Final Four:
|
to win
semi final |
|||
|
Mexico |
91,89 |
||
|
USA |
87,13 |
||
|
Honduras |
12,87 |
||
|
Costa Rica |
8,11 |
||
|
to win
final |
|||
|
Mexico |
64,59 |
[70,29] |
|
|
USA |
32,14 |
[36,89] |
|
|
Costa Rica |
1,67 |
[20,59] |
|
|
Honduras |
1,60 |
[12,43] |
The qualification for the final 3 berths in the Gold Cup 2021:
|
to win a
path semi final |
|||
|
Trinidad
and Tobago |
98,76 |
||
|
Haiti |
97,08 |
||
|
Guadeloupe |
94,52 |
||
|
Guatemala |
93,05 |
||
|
Bermuda |
89,96 |
||
|
Cuba |
77,22 |
||
|
French
Guyana |
22,78 |
||
|
Barbados |
10,04 |
||
|
Guyana |
6,95 |
||
|
Bahamas |
5,48 |
||
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
2,92 |
||
|
Montserrat |
1,24 |
||
|
to win a
path final |
|||
|
Haiti |
90,51 |
[93,23] |
|
|
Guatemala |
87,49 |
[94,02] |
|
|
Trinidad
and Tobago |
80,78 |
[81,79] |
|
|
Cuba |
14,62 |
[18,93] |
|
|
Bermuda |
7,20 |
[8,00] |
|
|
Guadeloupe |
6,61 |
[6,99] |
|
|
Guyana |
5,82 |
[83,74] |
|
|
French
Guyana |
4,43 |
[19,45] |
|
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
1,99 |
[68,15] |
|
|
Barbados |
0,30 |
[2,99] |
|
|
Montserrat |
0,17 |
[13,71] |
|
|
Bahamas |
0,08 |
[1,46] |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
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