CONCACAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic CONCACAF has adjusted their initially proposed qualification format for the World Cup to the following process:

• a group stage with 6 groups of 5 teams. Each team plays 2 home matches and 2 away matches against the other group opponents this March and June.
• the 6 group winners play (still in June) in 3 two-legged play-offs for a place in the octogonal. The pairing of these group winners in the play-offs is fixed: winner A plays F, winner B plays E and winner C plays D.
• a final group stage with 8 teams in a double round-robin format (octogonal) from September to March 2022. The top 5 from the July 2020 ranking (Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras) is automatically qualified for this stage.
• the top 3 of the octogonal qualifies for Qatar; number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs in June 2022.

This crowded schedule can only be realised because the June window contains 4 MD's and the September, October, January and March windows will contain 3 MD's each.

The postponed Final Four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 between Mexico, USA, Costa Rica and Honduras is now scheduled for this June.

And the final qualification stages for the Gold Cup 2021 were also postponed last year. With Qatar suddenly invited as guest, the 12 teams will now play in three 4-team paths for the 3 remaining berths in the tournament. Each path consists of two one-off semi-finals and a final. These play-off paths are to be played in the first week of July, directly prior to the Gold Cup itself. The composition of the paths and the Gold Cup groups were drawn last September already. The match schedule for the Gold Cup is still to be revealed though.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First the round 1 qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group. 

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
El Salvador	81,87	14,25	3,50	0,34	0,04
Grenada	10,25	43,83	40,24	5,21	0,47
Antigua and Barbuda	7,66	39,18	41,86	9,26	2,04
Montserrat	0,18	2,20	10,80	63,77	23,05
US Virgin Islands	0,04	0,54	3,60	21,42	74,40
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Canada	82,30	13,83	3,46	0,37	0,04
Suriname	10,61	47,89	34,85	5,71	0,94
Bermuda	6,95	36,12	50,87	5,37	0,69
Cayman Islands	0,10	0,98	5,70	53,88	39,34
Aruba	0,04	1,18	5,12	34,67	58,99
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Guatemala	51,75	32,65	12,14	3,41	0,05
Curacao	35,22	34,36	20,78	9,42	0,22
Cuba	9,98	21,48	34,94	33,27	0,33
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	3,05	11,51	32,05	52,66	0,73
British Virgin Islands	0,00	0,00	0,09	1,24	98,67
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Panama	89,20	9,21	1,35	0,23	0,01
Dominican Republic	6,35	54,23	26,92	11,66	0,84
Barbados	2,70	25,07	45,01	26,45	0,77
Dominica	1,75	11,46	26,37	58,11	2,31
Anguilla	0,00	0,03	0,35	3,55	96,07
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Haiti	89,61	8,51	1,49	0,37	0,02
Nicaragua	6,65	52,42	26,08	11,37	3,48
Belize	2,39	27,72	43,41	22,05	4,43
St. Lucia	1,31	10,08	24,34	50,36	13,91
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,04	1,27	4,68	15,85	78,16
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Trinidad and Tobago	59,03	23,69	11,23	4,70	1,35
Guyana	18,81	33,48	32,58	12,09	3,04
St. Kitts and Nevis	18,85	32,46	29,98	13,24	5,47
Puerto Rico	2,28	6,41	16,58	43,57	31,16
Bahamas	1,03	3,96	9,63	26,40	58,98

The group winners qualify for round 2:

Haiti	89,61
Panama	89,20
Canada	82,30
El Salvador	81,87
Trinidad and Tobago	59,03
Guatemala	51,75
Curacao	35,22
St. Kitts and Nevis	18,85
Guyana	18,81
Suriname	10,61
Grenada	10,25
Cuba	9,98
Antigua and Barbuda	7,66
Bermuda	6,95
Nicaragua	6,65
Dominican Republic	6,35
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	3,05
Barbados	2,70
Belize	2,39
Puerto Rico	2,28
Dominica	1,75
St. Lucia	1,31
Bahamas	1,03
Montserrat	0,18
Cayman Islands	0,10
US Virgin Islands	0,04
Aruba	0,04
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,04
British Virgin Islands	0,00
Anguilla	0,00

To win a play-off and qualify for the octogonal (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 2):

Panama	61,33		[68,76]
Haiti	52,74		[58,86]
El Salvador	51,08		[62,39]
Canada	41,34		[50,23]
Trinidad and Tobago	29,10		[49,30]
Guatemala	21,24		[41,04]
Curacao	12,07		[34,27]
Guyana	7,11		[37,80]
St. Kitts and Nevis	6,74		[35,76]
Grenada	3,29		[32,10]
Suriname	2,15		[20,26]
Antigua and Barbuda	2,12		[27,68]
Cuba	2,02		[20,24]
Dominican Republic	1,93		[30,39]
Nicaragua	1,58		[23,76]
Bermuda	1,39		[20,00]
Barbados	0,71		[26,30]
Belize	0,57		[23,85]
Puerto Rico	0,40		[17,54]
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0,38		[12,46]
Dominica	0,32		[18,29]
St. Lucia	0,21		[16,03]
Bahamas	0,14		[13,59]
Montserrat	0,02		[11,11]
Cayman Islands	0,01		[10,00]
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,01		[25,00]

The octogonal and in column labeled WCq the probability to qualify for the World Cup. The group number 4 qualifies for the interconfederational play-off. Teams are ordered by their weighted average group position.

octogonal (stage 3)	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	WCq
Mexico	73,51	17,63	5,59	1,90	0,88	0,30	0,14	0,05	96,73
USA	15,29	34,88	20,38	12,87	8,06	4,83	2,74	0,95	70,55
Costa Rica	3,42	12,33	17,32	18,20	16,46	14,44	11,69	6,14	33,07
Honduras	2,81	11,96	16,33	17,00	16,55	15,12	13,08	7,15	31,10
Jamaica	1,51	7,13	13,53	16,36	18,29	17,58	15,86	9,74	22,17
Canada	1,25	5,49	7,54	7,68	6,63	5,89	4,53	2,33	14,28
Haiti	1,00	4,09	6,91	8,49	9,04	9,32	8,49	5,40	12,00
Panama	0,73	3,35	6,05	8,12	10,18	12,12	11,93	8,85	10,13
Guatemala	0,21	0,97	2,08	2,46	3,25	3,99	4,39	3,89	3,26
El Salvador	0,23	1,75	3,01	4,25	6,55	8,74	11,52	15,03	4,99
Curacao	0,02	0,24	0,58	1,14	1,31	2,22	3,38	3,18	0,84
Suriname	0,00	0,01	0,04	0,12	0,16	0,31	0,52	0,99	0,05
Bermuda	0,00	0,00	0,02	0,07	0,10	0,21	0,40	0,59	0,02
Trinidad and Tobago	0,01	0,15	0,58	1,16	1,90	3,29	6,42	15,59	0,74
Cuba	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,04	0,15	0,28	0,53	1,01	0,01
Belize	0,01	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,03	0,03	0,11	0,38	0,01
Nicaragua	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,00	0,06	0,10	0,37	1,04	0,01
Montserrat	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,01	0,00
Guyana	0,00	0,01	0,01	0,04	0,18	0,42	1,27	5,18	0,02
Grenada	0,00	0,01	0,00	0,04	0,07	0,19	0,52	2,46	0,01
Dominican Republic	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,04	0,12	0,36	1,41	0,00
St. Kitts and Nevis	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,04	0,08	0,37	1,16	5,08	0,01
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,00	0,10	0,27	0,00
Barbados	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,03	0,12	0,55	0,00
Antigua and Barbuda	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,01	0,09	0,27	1,74	0,00
St. Lucia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,02	0,18	0,00
Dominica	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,05	0,27	0,00
Puerto Rico	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,02	0,38	0,00
Bahamas	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,14	0,00
Cayman Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,00
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,00

The CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Final Four:

to win semi final
Mexico	91,89
USA	87,13
Honduras	12,87
Costa Rica	8,11
to win final
Mexico	64,59		[70,29]
USA	32,14		[36,89]
Costa Rica	1,67		[20,59]
Honduras	1,60		[12,43]

The qualification for the final 3 berths in the Gold Cup 2021:

to win a path semi final
Trinidad and Tobago	98,76
Haiti	97,08
Guadeloupe	94,52
Guatemala	93,05
Bermuda	89,96
Cuba	77,22
French Guyana	22,78
Barbados	10,04
Guyana	6,95
Bahamas	5,48
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	2,92
Montserrat	1,24
to win a path final
Haiti	90,51		[93,23]
Guatemala	87,49		[94,02]
Trinidad and Tobago	80,78		[81,79]
Cuba	14,62		[18,93]
Bermuda	7,20		[8,00]
Guadeloupe	6,61		[6,99]
Guyana	5,82		[83,74]
French Guyana	4,43		[19,45]
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	1,99		[68,15]
Barbados	0,30		[2,99]
Montserrat	0,17		[13,71]
Bahamas	0,08		[1,46]

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