CONMEBOL qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

CONMEBOL started with their World Cup qualifiers. They played 4 MD's in October and November last year.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete qualifying campaign for CONMEBOL teams, including the complete Copa America 2021 (now scheduled for this June) along the road -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

You can find previous qualification simulation results here.

First the Copa America. This is the first edition in a new format of 2 groups of 6 teams instead of the awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Now simply the group numbers 1 to 4 qualify for the quarter finals. There are again 2 guests, this time Qatar and Australia as the last two Asian Champions.

The group results, ordered by average group position: 

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Argentina	64,75	23,25	8,12	2,82	0,93	0,13
Uruguay	23,27	37,50	20,70	11,46	5,34	1,73
Chile	6,22	17,22	27,08	24,04	17,27	8,17
Paraguay	3,84	13,26	22,68	25,89	22,18	12,15
Australia	1,52	7,04	15,81	23,59	30,22	21,82
Bolivia	0,40	1,73	5,61	12,20	24,06	56,00
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Brazil	64,91	23,58	7,80	2,55	0,96	0,20
Colombia	24,98	40,15	19,04	9,90	4,46	1,47
Ecuador	4,06	13,86	24,97	24,63	20,91	11,57
Venezuela	3,19	10,33	21,90	25,56	23,95	15,07
Peru	2,68	10,30	20,30	24,26	25,88	16,58
Qatar	0,18	1,78	5,99	13,10	23,84	55,11

To qualify for the quarter finals:

Argentina	98,94
Brazil	98,84
Colombia	94,07
Uruguay	92,93
Chile	74,56
Ecuador	67,52
Paraguay	65,67
Venezuela	60,98
Peru	57,54
Australia	47,96
Qatar	21,05
Bolivia	19,94

To qualify for the semi finals (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the quarter finals):

Brazil	88,60		[89,64]
Argentina	81,65		[82,52]
Colombia	64,00		[68,03]
Uruguay	55,97		[60,23]
Ecuador	24,62		[36,46]
Chile	22,00		[29,51]
Venezuela	18,85		[30,91]
Peru	17,59		[30,57]
Paraguay	15,62		[23,79]
Australia	7,11		[14,82]
Qatar	2,44		[11,59]
Bolivia	1,55		[7,77]

To qualify for the final (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the semi finals):

Brazil	67,15		[75,79]
Argentina	64,14		[78,55]
Colombia	25,40		[39,69]
Uruguay	20,57		[36,75]
Ecuador	5,60		[22,75]
Chile	4,85		[22,05]
Venezuela	4,02		[21,33]
Peru	3,64		[20,69]
Paraguay	3,19		[20,42]
Australia	0,96		[13,50]
Qatar	0,32		[13,11]
Bolivia	0,16		[10,32]

To win the Copa America (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the final):

Brazil	51,72		[77,02]
Argentina	19,91		[31,04]
Colombia	16,42		[64,65]
Uruguay	6,62		[32,18]
Ecuador	1,58		[28,21]
Chile	1,14		[23,51]
Venezuela	0,98		[24,38]
Paraguay	0,74		[23,20]
Peru	0,69		[18,96]
Australia	0,15		[15,63]
Qatar	0,04		[12,50]
Bolivia	0,01		[6,25]

Then the probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 5:

team	nrs. 1-4		nr. 5
Brazil	99,04		0,63
Argentina	86,57		6,83
Uruguay	71,62		11,99
Ecuador	49,29		16,95
Colombia	37,19		18,75
Chile	17,89		13,15
Paraguay	15,77		12,03
Venezuela	13,71		10,85
Peru	8,60		8,27
Bolivia	0,32		0,55

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