UEFA qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

The European teams will have a busy schedule this year. The qualification groups for the World Cup 2022 in 10 MD's will start in March and be played to a finish in November. There are 10 groups with the group winners qualifying directly for Qatar. The 10 group runners-up will compete with the two best UNL group winners, not qualified already, in 3 play-off paths of 4 teams for the final 3 UEFA berths. These single leg semi-final and final play-offs will be played in March 2022.

In October the UEFA Nations League 2021 Final Four will be played between the league A group winners Italy, Belgium, France and Spain.

And not to forget: this June the postponed EURO 2020 will be played, still with the same match schedule and in the same 12 venues, spread across Europe. Last November the last four participants (Hungary, Slovakia, Scotland and North Macedonia) came through the qualification finals.

 

Here are the probabilities (in %), generated over 10.000 simulations. All match-results in each simulation are based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

Previous simulation results for the EURO tournament can be found here. At the time there were quite some discussions about the validity of those results and in the meantime I have finally found the time to explore them thoroughly. It turns out there was indeed a bug in my simulation software in the not very common case that the 'away-playing' team in a match actually plays at home. Especially in this tournament the match schedule provided some of these cases and the bug made for instance Belgium look very bad in the results. My apologies to our southern neighbours. You will see below they are strong favourites now 😀

First the group stage of the EUROs. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Italy	66,88	23,41	7,15	2,56
Switzerland	16,25	33,68	29,86	20,21
Wales	12,41	25,98	32,57	29,04
Turkey	4,46	16,93	30,42	48,19
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denmark	46,05	37,22	12,05	4,68
Belgium	45,05	35,69	16,05	3,21
Russia	7,04	19,80	41,28	31,88
Finland	1,86	7,29	30,62	60,23
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Netherlands	80,14	14,94	4,44	0,48
Ukraine	11,36	47,26	31,55	9,83
Austria	7,65	30,97	46,75	14,63
North Macedonia	0,85	6,83	17,26	75,06
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
England	68,75	22,07	7,35	1,83
Croatia	16,26	29,49	29,57	24,68
Scotland	7,33	26,85	29,95	35,87
Czech Republic	7,66	21,59	33,13	37,62
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Spain	83,66	12,83	2,78	0,73
Sweden	7,78	40,55	33,51	18,16
Poland	6,88	33,42	40,30	19,40
Slovakia	1,68	13,20	23,41	61,71
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Germany	38,22	29,65	21,78	10,35
France	30,84	30,22	25,30	13,64
Portugal	25,10	27,44	29,39	18,07
Hungary	5,84	12,69	23,53	57,94

Then the focus turns to the knock-out stage with the probabilities to qualify for each round. From the quarter finals onwards also the percentages are presented (in square brackets) to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.

Round of 16

Netherlands	99,08
Spain	99,03
England	97,40
Italy	96,85
Belgium	94,81
Denmark	93,02
Germany	86,79
France	81,54
Ukraine	79,61
Portugal	72,68
Austria	71,03
Croatia	68,54
Sweden	68,11
Switzerland	68,02
Poland	66,97
Wales	60,24
Russia	56,62
Scotland	52,03
Czech Republic	46,41
Turkey	40,74
Hungary	33,04
Slovakia	28,45
Finland	21,87
North Macedonia	17,12

Quarter finals

Spain	83,97		[84,79]
Belgium	76,31		[80,49]
Italy	69,12		[71,37]
Netherlands	64,95		[65,55]
France	64,84		[79,52]
Denmark	53,89		[57,93]
Portugal	52,53		[72,28]
Germany	51,84		[59,73]
England	47,94		[49,22]
Sweden	30,23		[44,38]
Switzerland	29,24		[42,99]
Croatia	27,36		[39,92]
Poland	26,79		[40,00]
Wales	21,52		[35,72]
Ukraine	20,74		[26,05]
Austria	14,45		[20,34]
Czech Republic	12,79		[27,56]
Russia	11,64		[20,56]
Turkey	9,93		[24,37]
Hungary	9,84		[29,78]
Scotland	9,25		[17,78]
Slovakia	5,76		[20,25]
Finland	4,03		[18,43]
North Macedonia	1,04		[6,07]

Semi finals

Belgium	59,13		[77,49]
France	48,94		[75,48]
Spain	48,80		[58,12]
Netherlands	36,98		[56,94]
Portugal	35,78		[68,11]
Italy	33,98		[49,16]
Germany	32,25		[62,21]
Denmark	23,91		[44,37]
England	19,17		[39,99]
Switzerland	10,18		[34,82]
Croatia	7,52		[27,49]
Sweden	6,97		[23,06]
Ukraine	6,48		[31,24]
Wales	6,42		[29,83]
Poland	6,11		[22,81]
Austria	4,15		[28,72]
Russia	2,90		[24,91]
Turkey	2,59		[26,08]
Czech Republic	2,48		[19,39]
Hungary	2,44		[24,80]
Scotland	0,99		[10,70]
Slovakia	0,87		[15,10]
Finland	0,86		[21,34]
North Macedonia	0,10		[9,62]

Final

Belgium	38,66		[65,38]
France	32,42		[66,24]
Spain	29,85		[61,17]
Portugal	20,83		[58,22]
Italy	15,13		[44,53]
Netherlands	13,96		[37,75]
Germany	13,48		[41,80]
England	13,03		[67,97]
Denmark	8,28		[34,63]
Switzerland	2,79		[27,41]
Croatia	2,19		[29,12]
Ukraine	1,64		[25,31]
Sweden	1,61		[23,10]
Wales	1,61		[25,08]
Poland	1,34		[21,93]
Austria	0,80		[19,28]
Hungary	0,55		[22,54]
Czech Republic	0,51		[20,56]
Russia	0,48		[16,55]
Turkey	0,40		[15,44]
Scotland	0,16		[16,16]
Slovakia	0,14		[16,09]
Finland	0,13		[15,12]
North Macedonia	0,01		[10,00]

And the winner:

Belgium	25,36		[65,60]
France	20,01		[61,72]
Spain	14,22		[47,64]
Portugal	10,61		[50,94]
England	7,96		[61,09]
Italy	6,37		[42,10]
Netherlands	5,47		[39,18]
Germany	4,60		[34,12]
Denmark	2,36		[28,50]
Switzerland	0,68		[24,37]
Croatia	0,61		[27,85]
Sweden	0,37		[22,98]
Wales	0,35		[21,74]
Ukraine	0,33		[20,12]
Poland	0,25		[18,66]
Austria	0,12		[15,00]
Hungary	0,10		[18,18]
Czech Republic	0,09		[17,65]
Turkey	0,06		[15,00]
Scotland	0,04		[25,00]
Russia	0,03		[6,25]
Slovakia	0,01		[7,14]
Finland	0,00		[0,00]
North Macedonia	0,00		[0,00]

Then a closer look to most probable match-ups in the different knock-out stages. A total of 270 different match-ups are generated in this simulation. Here are per match the 10 most probable match-ups presented. Also per knock-out stage a total overview of the 25 most probable match-ups.

First the chances of the 4 group winners of groups B, C, E and F to meet a group third from the other groups in the round of 16 (the row sums to 100%):

	A3	B3	C3	D3	E3	F3
B1	19,31	0	0	12,44	31,12	37,13
C1	0	0	0	31,64	31,44	36,92
E1	12,44	31,65	35,61	20,30	0	0
F1	34,10	34,67	31,23	0	0	0

And presented the other way round (the row sums to 100%):

	B1	C1	E1	F1
A3	29,32	0	18,89	51,78
B3	0	0	47,72	52,28
C3	0	0	53,28	46,72
D3	19,32	49,15	31,53	0
E3	49,74	50,26	0	0
F3	50,14	49,86	0	0

Round of 16
B1 - nr 3 (Bilbao - ESP)			A1 - C2 (London - ENG)
Belgium - Poland	6,26		Italy - Ukraine	31,39
Denmark - Poland	6,18		Austria - Italy	20,62
Denmark - Sweden	4,74		Italy - Netherlands	10,27
Denmark - Portugal	4,72		Switzerland - Ukraine	7,81
Denmark - France	4,54		Ukraine - Wales	6,02
Belgium - Germany	4,51		Austria - Switzerland	4,91
Belgium - Sweden	4,51		Italy - North Macedonia	4,60
Belgium - France	4,48		Austria - Wales	3,93
Belgium - Portugal	4,39		Netherlands - Switzerland	2,36
Denmark - Germany	4,28		Turkey - Ukraine	2,04
F1 - nr 3 (Bucharest - ROM)			D2 - E2 (Copenhagen - DEN)
Austria - Germany	6,11		Croatia - Sweden	11,85
Germany - Russia	5,78		Scotland - Sweden	11,06
France - Russia	4,76		Croatia - Poland	9,86
Austria - France	4,57		England - Sweden	9,01
Germany - Wales	4,46		Poland - Scotland	8,82
Germany - Ukraine	3,89		Czech Republic - Sweden	8,63
Portugal - Russia	3,84		Czech Republic - Poland	7,49
Austria - Portugal	3,82		England - Poland	7,25
France - Wales	3,71		Croatia - Slovakia	3,98
Germany - Switzerland	3,63		Croatia - Spain	3,80
E1 - nr 3 (Glasgow - SCO)			D1 - F2 (Dublin - IRL)
Austria - Spain	14,17		England - France	20,88
Russia - Spain	12,07		England - Germany	20,39
Spain - Ukraine	9,58		England - Portugal	18,68
Croatia - Spain	5,89		England - Hungary	8,80
Belgium - Spain	5,71		Croatia - France	4,85
Finland - Spain	4,93		Croatia - Germany	4,82
Scotland - Spain	4,68		Croatia - Portugal	4,54
North Macedonia - Spain	4,49		Czech Republic - Germany	2,40
Czech Republic - Spain	4,23		France - Scotland	2,28
Denmark - Spain	3,85		Portugal - Scotland	2,22
C1 - nr 3 (Budapest - HUN)			A2 - B2 (Amsterdam - NED)
Netherlands - Poland	10,81		Denmark - Switzerland	12,42
France - Netherlands	8,69		Belgium - Switzerland	11,99
Croatia - Netherlands	8,49		Denmark - Wales	9,82
Netherlands - Portugal	8,43		Belgium - Wales	9,14
Netherlands - Sweden	7,69		Denmark - Italy	8,77
Germany - Netherlands	7,57		Belgium - Italy	8,43
Czech Republic - Netherlands	6,82		Russia - Switzerland	6,75
Netherlands - Scotland	6,76		Denmark - Turkey	6,21
Hungary - Netherlands	5,77		Belgium - Turkey	6,13
Netherlands - Slovakia	5,54		Russia - Wales	5,12
total Round of 16
Italy - Ukraine	31,39
England - France	20,88
Austria - Italy	20,62
England - Germany	20,39
England - Portugal	18,68
Denmark - Switzerland	14,48
Austria - Spain	14,21
Belgium - Switzerland	14,19
Denmark - Wales	12,61
Croatia - Sweden	12,52
Russia - Spain	12,16
Belgium - Wales	12,07
Scotland - Sweden	11,55
Netherlands - Poland	10,99
Croatia - Poland	10,34
Italy - Netherlands	10,27
Spain - Ukraine	9,78
Croatia - Spain	9,69
Denmark - Italy	9,68
Belgium - Italy	9,34
France - Netherlands	9,26
Poland - Scotland	9,25
England - Sweden	9,20
Czech Republic - Sweden	9,10
Denmark - Turkey	9,01
Quarter finals
B1-nr 3 / A1-C2 (Munich - GER)			F1-nr 3 / D2-E2 (St. Petersburg - RUS)
Belgium - Italy	21,02		Germany - Sweden	6,46
Denmark - Italy	16,54		France - Sweden	5,87
Belgium - Switzerland	4,57		Germany - Poland	5,42
Belgium - Ukraine	4,35		Croatia - Germany	5,20
Denmark - Ukraine	3,58		France - Poland	4,97
Denmark - Switzerland	3,53		England - Germany	4,96
Belgium - Wales	3,48		Croatia - France	4,62
France - Italy	3,28		Portugal - Sweden	4,62
Italy - Portugal	2,99		England - France	4,27
Austria - Belgium	2,59		Croatia - Portugal	3,93
E1-nr 3 / D1-F2 (Rome - ITA)			C1-nr 3 / A2-B2 (Baku - AZB)
England - Spain	21,77		Belgium - Netherlands	17,07
France - Spain	17,18		Denmark - Netherlands	12,28
Portugal - Spain	14,28		Netherlands - Switzerland	8,18
Germany - Spain	10,80		Italy - Netherlands	7,63
Croatia - Spain	3,78		Netherlands - Wales	5,46
Hungary - Spain	2,26		Netherlands - Russia	3,18
England - Sweden	1,69		Netherlands - Turkey	2,82
Czech Republic - Spain	1,26		Belgium - France	2,34
England - Poland	1,25		Belgium - Ukraine	2,02
France - Sweden	1,22		Denmark - France	1,70
total Quarter final
England - Spain	21,77
Belgium - Italy	21,02
France - Spain	20,30
Belgium - Netherlands	19,29
Portugal - Spain	16,78
Denmark - Italy	16,54
Denmark - Netherlands	14,24
Germany - Spain	13,70
Netherlands - Switzerland	8,25
Italy - Netherlands	7,71
Germany - Sweden	7,25
France - Sweden	7,09
Belgium - Ukraine	6,37
Germany - Poland	6,11
France - Poland	6,04
Netherlands - Wales	5,57
Portugal - Sweden	5,53
Croatia - Germany	5,49
England - Germany	5,12
Denmark - Ukraine	4,88
Croatia - France	4,87
Poland - Portugal	4,59
Belgium - Switzerland	4,57
England - France	4,47
Croatia - Portugal	4,23
total Semi final (London - ENG)
Netherlands - Spain	14,49
Belgium - France	12,21
Belgium - Spain	11,37
Belgium - Germany	8,94
Belgium - Portugal	8,55
France - Italy	7,62
France - Netherlands	6,54
Germany - Italy	6,36
Italy - Portugal	5,46
Denmark - France	4,91
England - Netherlands	4,75
Belgium - England	4,56
Italy - Spain	4,14
Netherlands - Portugal	4,12
Denmark - Spain	4,04
Denmark - Portugal	3,76
France - Portugal	3,59
Denmark - Germany	3,56
France - Spain	2,77
France - Germany	2,64
Germany - Netherlands	2,55
Spain - Switzerland	2,39
England - Italy	2,11
Belgium - Croatia	2,04
Germany - Portugal	2,04
total Final (London - ENG)
Belgium - Spain	8,01
Belgium - France	7,65
France - Spain	5,82
France - Portugal	4,63
Belgium - Portugal	4,59
Belgium - Netherlands	4,17
Portugal - Spain	3,91
Italy - Spain	3,48
Belgium - England	3,02
Belgium - Italy	3,02
Belgium - Germany	2,77
France - Germany	2,76
France - Netherlands	2,74
England - France	2,67
Germany - Spain	2,48
France - Italy	2,37
Belgium - Denmark	2,34
Germany - Portugal	1,73
Denmark - Spain	1,55
Italy - Netherlands	1,55
England - Portugal	1,54
England - Italy	1,48
Netherlands - Portugal	1,46
England - Spain	1,33
Denmark - France	1,28
total Knock-out matches
Belgium - Italy	34,94
Italy - Ukraine	32,89
Belgium - France	29,91
England - France	29,16
France - Spain	28,89
England - Spain	27,88
Denmark - Italy	26,93
England - Germany	26,68
Belgium - Spain	26,21
Belgium - Netherlands	24,54
England - Portugal	24,51
Portugal - Spain	22,61
Belgium - Portugal	21,77
Austria - Italy	21,55
Belgium - Germany	20,53
Belgium - Switzerland	20,01
Italy - Netherlands	19,68
France - Netherlands	19,07
Denmark - Switzerland	18,24
Netherlands - Spain	17,83
Germany - Spain	17,08
Belgium - Wales	16,42
France - Italy	15,36
Austria - Spain	15,23
Denmark - Netherlands	15,18

Then the UEFA Nations League Final Four, played in October in Italy:

to win a semi-final
Italy	63,53
Belgium	55,24
France	44,76
Spain	36,47
to win the UNL
Italy	32,67
Belgium	29,50
France	22,75
Spain	15,08

Then qualification for the World Cup. First the group stage. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Portugal	83,91	14,00	2,06	0,03	0,00
Serbia	13,39	59,70	23,67	2,84	0,40
Republic of Ireland	2,68	24,32	58,51	11,62	2,87
Azerbaijan	0,02	1,19	8,55	44,52	45,72
Luxembourg	0,00	0,79	7,21	40,99	51,01
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Spain	84,95	13,77	1,15	0,09	0,04
Sweden	13,55	62,51	17,64	5,20	1,10
Greece	1,27	15,77	44,96	24,76	13,24
Georgia	0,12	4,07	19,19	36,66	39,96
Kosovo	0,11	3,88	17,06	33,29	45,66
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Italy	71,50	26,13	2,19	0,18	0,00
Switzerland	27,20	60,54	10,18	1,83	0,25
Northern Ireland	0,92	8,81	50,86	28,67	10,74
Bulgaria	0,33	3,95	28,59	44,44	22,69
Lithuania	0,05	0,57	8,18	24,88	66,32
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
France	85,06	12,22	2,40	0,32	0,00
Ukraine	11,40	54,94	24,17	9,11	0,38
Finland	2,69	21,85	42,79	29,33	3,34
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,85	10,81	29,16	51,61	7,57
Kazakhstan	0,00	0,18	1,48	9,63	88,71
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Belgium	86,38	11,60	1,90	0,11	0,01
Wales	8,97	54,07	30,98	5,24	0,74
Czech Republic	4,55	31,37	51,22	11,10	1,76
Belarus	0,10	2,54	12,12	56,68	28,56
Estonia	0,00	0,42	3,78	26,87	68,93
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Denmark	68,86	22,52	7,13	1,41	0,08	0,00
Austria	21,78	44,85	23,45	9,37	0,52	0,03
Scotland	6,65	21,21	39,08	29,69	3,01	0,36
Israel	2,70	11,33	28,98	48,89	6,82	1,28
Faroe Islands	0,01	0,05	0,84	6,38	50,55	42,17
Moldova	0,00	0,04	0,52	4,26	39,02	56,16
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Netherlands	77,07	17,11	5,31	0,51	0,00	0,00
Norway	11,63	39,95	37,02	10,95	0,43	0,02
Turkey	10,79	37,76	39,73	11,34	0,38	0,00
Montenegro	0,51	5,12	17,16	67,42	8,92	0,87
Latvia	0,00	0,05	0,75	8,73	70,10	20,37
Gibraltar	0,00	0,01	0,03	1,05	20,17	78,74
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Croatia	57,22	26,09	12,10	4,25	0,34	0,00
Russia	24,75	35,00	24,58	14,14	1,45	0,08
Slovakia	11,00	22,22	31,60	30,39	4,40	0,39
Slovenia	6,96	16,25	29,22	39,82	6,95	0,80
Cyprus	0,07	0,42	2,20	9,18	59,63	28,50
Malta	0,00	0,02	0,30	2,22	27,23	70,23
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
England	65,95	23,34	9,33	1,38	0,00	0,00
Poland	20,73	41,10	29,45	8,67	0,05	0,00
Hungary	12,18	30,01	41,97	15,80	0,04	0,00
Albania	1,14	5,55	19,25	73,13	0,92	0,01
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,97	80,77	18,26
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,05	18,22	81,73
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Germany	85,18	11,43	2,60	0,62	0,17	0,00
Romania	7,26	36,45	26,88	17,87	11,34	0,20
Iceland	4,63	27,54	28,88	23,53	14,80	0,62
North Macedonia	1,94	14,98	23,45	30,31	28,10	1,22
Armenia	0,99	9,60	18,13	27,25	41,45	2,58
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,06	0,42	4,14	95,38

Then the play-offs. Teams can qualify for the play-offs as group runner-up (column 'nr2') or as one of the two best UNL group winners not already qualified (column 'via UNL'). In column 'PO' you see the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. 

The 6 best runners-up are seeded in the draw for the 6 semi-finals in the 3 paths. In columns 'seeded' and 'unseeded' you will find the respective probabilities and finally in column '%seeded' the chance to be seeded.

team	PO	nr2	via UNL	seeded	unseeded	%seeded
Czech Republic	93,87	31,37	62,50	5,99	87,88	6,38
Wales	91,01	54,07	36,94	13,20	77,81	14,50
Austria	77,85	44,85	33,00	43,02	34,83	55,26
Hungary	66,02	30,01	36,01	29,76	36,26	45,08
Sweden	62,51	62,51	0	15,41	47,10	24,65
Switzerland	60,54	60,54	0	22,65	37,89	37,41
Serbia	59,70	59,70	0	17,52	42,18	29,35
Ukraine	54,94	54,94	0	11,92	43,02	21,70
Poland	41,10	41,10	0	40,80	0,30	99,27
Norway	39,95	39,95	0	38,55	1,40	96,50
Turkey	37,76	37,76	0	36,41	1,35	96,42
Slovenia	36,78	16,25	20,53	14,86	21,92	40,40
Romania	36,45	36,45	0	30,78	5,67	84,44
Russia	35,00	35,00	0	32,85	2,15	93,86
Iceland	27,54	27,54	0	22,39	5,15	81,30
Italy	26,87	26,13	0,74	12,47	14,40	46,41
Croatia	26,09	26,09	0	24,97	1,12	95,71
Republic of Ireland	24,32	24,32	0	4,32	20,00	17,76
England	23,34	23,34	0	23,30	0,04	99,83
Denmark	22,52	22,52	0	22,19	0,33	98,53
Slovakia	22,22	22,22	0	20,59	1,63	92,66
Finland	21,85	21,85	0	2,54	19,31	11,62
Scotland	21,21	21,21	0	19,83	1,38	93,49
Netherlands	17,11	17,11	0	17,00	0,11	99,36
Greece	15,77	15,77	0	1,54	14,23	9,77
Spain	15,05	13,77	1,28	6,06	8,99	40,27
North Macedonia	14,98	14,98	0	11,52	3,46	76,90
Portugal	14,00	14,00	0	6,62	7,38	47,29
Belgium	13,62	11,60	2,02	5,09	8,53	37,37
France	13,03	12,22	0,81	4,36	8,67	33,46
Germany	11,43	11,43	0	11,09	0,34	97,03
Israel	11,33	11,33	0	10,22	1,11	90,20
Montenegro	10,91	5,12	5,79	4,52	6,39	41,43
Bosnia-Herzegovina	10,81	10,81	0	0,64	10,17	5,92
Armenia	9,61	9,60	0,01	7,15	2,46	74,40
Northern Ireland	8,81	8,81	0	1,20	7,61	13,62
Albania	5,92	5,55	0,37	5,37	0,55	90,71
Georgia	4,07	4,07	0	0,36	3,71	8,85
Bulgaria	3,95	3,95	0	0,24	3,71	6,08
Kosovo	3,88	3,88	0	0,15	3,73	3,87
Belarus	2,54	2,54	0	0,11	2,43	4,33
Azerbaijan	1,19	1,19	0	0,01	1,18	0,84
Luxembourg	0,79	0,79	0	0,03	0,76	3,80
Lithuania	0,57	0,57	0	0,00	0,57	0,00
Estonia	0,42	0,42	0	0,02	0,40	4,76
Cyprus	0,42	0,42	0	0,28	0,14	66,67
Kazakhstan	0,18	0,18	0	0,01	0,17	5,56
Faroe Islands	0,05	0,05	0	0,04	0,01	80,00
Latvia	0,05	0,05	0	0,02	0,03	40,00
Moldova	0,04	0,04	0	0,02	0,02	50,00
Malta	0,02	0,02	0	0,00	0,02	0,00
Gibraltar	0,01	0,01	0	0,01	0,00	100,00
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0	0,00	0,00	0,00
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0	0,00	0,00	0,00
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0	0,00	0,00	0,00

The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for the play-offs.

Austria	38,84		[49,89]
Wales	35,39		[38,89]
Switzerland	32,55		[53,77]
Poland	31,55		[76,76]
Norway	28,76		[71,99]
Hungary	28,66		[43,41]
Sweden	27,53		[44,04]
Turkey	26,69		[70,68]
Czech Republic	25,48		[27,14]
Serbia	24,96		[41,81]
Ukraine	24,76		[45,07]
Russia	22,83		[65,23]
England	20,31		[87,02]
Croatia	19,47		[74,63]
Romania	19,12		[52,46]
Italy	18,92		[70,41]
Denmark	18,74		[83,21]
Netherlands	14,74		[86,15]
Iceland	12,90		[46,84]
Scotland	12,75		[60,11]
Slovakia	12,55		[56,48]
Belgium	10,59		[77,75]
Slovenia	10,55		[28,68]
Spain	10,53		[69,97]
Portugal	10,07		[71,93]
France	9,74		[74,75]
Germany	9,19		[80,40]
Finland	6,54		[29,93]
North Macedonia	6,25		[41,72]
Republic of Ireland	6,16		[25,33]
Israel	5,42		[47,84]
Armenia	3,45		[35,90]
Greece	3,17		[20,10]
Albania	2,46		[41,55]
Montenegro	2,37		[21,72]
Bosnia-Herzegovina	2,13		[19,70]
Northern Ireland	1,62		[18,39]
Georgia	0,55		[13,51]
Bulgaria	0,54		[13,67]
Kosovo	0,53		[13,66]
Belarus	0,29		[11,42]
Cyprus	0,11		[26,19]
Azerbaijan	0,10		[8,40]
Luxembourg	0,07		[8,86]
Lithuania	0,02		[3,51]
Kazakhstan	0,02		[11,11]
Estonia	0,02		[4,76]
Latvia	0,01		[20,00]

The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final.

Wales	19,73		[55,75]
Switzerland	19,05		[58,53]
Austria	17,54		[45,16]
Poland	15,70		[49,76]
Sweden	14,68		[53,32]
Ukraine	14,12		[57,03]
Italy	13,57		[71,72]
England	12,90		[63,52]
Hungary	12,68		[44,24]
Norway	12,63		[43,92]
Serbia	12,39		[49,64]
Turkey	12,02		[45,04]
Czech Republic	11,68		[45,84]
Denmark	10,70		[57,10]
Croatia	9,95		[51,10]
Netherlands	9,60		[65,13]
Russia	9,50		[41,61]
Belgium	8,55		[80,74]
Spain	7,62		[72,36]
France	7,37		[75,67]
Portugal	7,18		[71,30]
Romania	6,43		[33,63]
Germany	5,31		[57,78]
Scotland	4,59		[36,00]
Slovakia	4,16		[33,15]
Iceland	3,73		[28,91]
Slovenia	2,98		[28,25]
Finland	2,89		[44,19]
Republic of Ireland	2,33		[37,82]
North Macedonia	1,73		[27,68]
Israel	1,56		[28,78]
Greece	1,16		[36,59]
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,82		[38,50]
Armenia	0,71		[20,58]
Albania	0,67		[27,24]
Montenegro	0,58		[24,47]
Northern Ireland	0,56		[34,57]
Bulgaria	0,22		[40,74]
Georgia	0,16		[29,09]
Kosovo	0,12		[22,64]
Belarus	0,10		[34,48]
Cyprus	0,02		[18,18]
Azerbaijan	0,01		[10,00]
Estonia	0,00		[0,00]
Kazakhstan	0,00		[0,00]
Latvia	0,00		[0,00]
Lithuania	0,00		[0,00]
Luxembourg	0,00		[0,00]

Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO').

team	nr1	PO	Qtot
Belgium	86,38	8,55	94,93
Spain	84,95	7,62	92,57
France	85,06	7,37	92,43
Portugal	83,91	7,18	91,09
Germany	85,18	5,31	90,49
Netherlands	77,07	9,60	86,67
Italy	71,50	13,57	85,07
Denmark	68,86	10,70	79,56
England	65,95	12,90	78,85
Croatia	57,22	9,95	67,17
Switzerland	27,20	19,05	46,25
Austria	21,78	17,54	39,32
Poland	20,73	15,70	36,43
Russia	24,75	9,50	34,25
Wales	8,97	19,73	28,70
Sweden	13,55	14,68	28,23
Serbia	13,39	12,39	25,78
Ukraine	11,40	14,12	25,52
Hungary	12,18	12,68	24,86
Norway	11,63	12,63	24,26
Turkey	10,79	12,02	22,81
Czech Republic	4,55	11,68	16,23
Slovakia	11,00	4,16	15,16
Romania	7,26	6,43	13,69
Scotland	6,65	4,59	11,24
Slovenia	6,96	2,98	9,94
Iceland	4,63	3,73	8,36
Finland	2,69	2,89	5,58
Republic of Ireland	2,68	2,33	5,01
Israel	2,70	1,56	4,26
North Macedonia	1,94	1,73	3,67
Greece	1,27	1,16	2,43
Albania	1,14	0,67	1,81
Armenia	0,99	0,71	1,70
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,85	0,82	1,67
Northern Ireland	0,92	0,56	1,48
Montenegro	0,51	0,58	1,09
Bulgaria	0,33	0,22	0,55
Georgia	0,12	0,16	0,28
Kosovo	0,11	0,12	0,23
Belarus	0,10	0,10	0,20
Cyprus	0,07	0,02	0,09
Lithuania	0,05	0,00	0,05
Azerbaijan	0,02	0,01	0,03
Faroe Islands	0,01	0,00	0,01
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0,00
Estonia	0,00	0,00	0,00
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	0,00
Kazakhstan	0,00	0,00	0,00
Latvia	0,00	0,00	0,00
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,00
Luxembourg	0,00	0,00	0,00
Malta	0,00	0,00	0,00
Moldova	0,00	0,00	0,00
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.