Football rankings: FIFA ranking: April 2021 final preview

Thursday, April 1, 2021

FIFA ranking: April 2021 final preview

Here is the final preview of the April 2021 ranking. FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday April 8th.

After the disqualification of Chad and the subsequent forfeit of their last two group matches in AFCON qualifying, I expect, conform the inclusion of other awarded matches, their awarded matches to be included in this ranking.

Two teams record a new low:

Togo (133 - 129 in April 2018)

Aruba (205 - 202 in February 2008)

Best movers:

11 - Guinea-Bissau

10 - Namibia

9 - Armenia

Worst movers:

-9 - Mozambique

-8 - Libya

-7 - Estonia

Best movers in the top 50:

5 - Serbia

4 - Nigeria, Scotland, Egypt

Worst movers in the top 50:

-6 - Romania

-5 - Republic of Ireland

-3 - Northern Ireland

Stay safe and healthy everybody !

pos Apr.	team	pts Apr.	+/- ranking	+/- points
1	Belgium	1783,38	0	3
2	France	1757,30	0	2
3	Brazil	1742,65	0	0
4	England	1686,78	0	17
5	Portugal	1666,17	0	4
6	Spain	1648,13	0	3
7	Italy	1642,06	3	17
7	Argentina	1641,95	0	0
9	Uruguay	1639,08	-1	0
10	Denmark	1631,55	2	18
11	Mexico	1629,56	-2	-2
12	Germany	1609,12	1	-1
13	Croatia	1605,75	-2	-11
14	Switzerland	1604,58	2	12
15	Colombia	1600,66	0	0
16	Netherlands	1598,04	-2	-11
17	Wales	1570,36	1	8
17	Chile	1569,52	0	3
19	Sweden	1568,94	1	11
20	USA	1555,42	2	7
21	Poland	1549,87	-2	-9
22	Senegal	1542,45	-2	-16
23	Austria	1523,42	0	-8
24	Ukraine	1515,85	0	-5
25	Serbia	1512,90	5	21
25	Tunisia	1512,88	1	10
27	Peru	1511,88	-2	0
28	Japan	1509,34	-1	7
29	Turkey	1505,05	3	18
30	Venezuela	1500,71	-2	0
31	Iran	1499,56	-2	4
32	Nigeria	1487,16	4	13
32	Algeria	1486,69	-1	-1
34	Morocco	1479,32	-1	-2
35	Paraguay	1476,02	0	0
36	Slovakia	1475,24	-2	-3
37	Hungary	1468,75	3	9
38	Russia	1462,65	1	2
39	Korea Republic	1460,25	-1	-5
40	Czech Republic	1458,81	2	3
41	Australia	1457,49	0	0
42	Norway	1452,34	2	2
43	Romania	1449,23	-6	-17
44	Scotland	1441,43	4	5
45	Egypt	1432,66	4	1
45	Jamaica	1432,64	2	-4
47	Republic of Ireland	1427,25	-5	-29
48	Northern Ireland	1425,74	-3	-14
49	Costa Rica	1423,40	1	-4
50	Ghana	1419,05	2	-5
50	Greece	1418,70	3	6
52	Iceland	1415,99	-6	-22
53	Ecuador	1413,01	4	4
54	Finland	1412,45	1	1
55	Cameroon	1404,87	-5	-22
55	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1404,87	1	-5
57	Mali	1400,94	-3	-11
58	Cote d'Ivoire	1397,77	3	14
59	Qatar	1394,43	-1	3
60	Burkina Faso	1392,88	-2	2
61	Congo DR	1376,65	-1	-9
62	North Macedonia	1374,73	3	13
63	Slovenia	1369,88	-1	-9
64	Montenegro	1368,49	-1	-2
65	Saudi Arabia	1364,39	2	11
66	Albania	1362,09	0	2
67	Honduras	1361,21	-3	-6
68	Iraq	1352,88	1	5
69	El Salvador	1341,24	1	-3
69	Canada	1340,56	4	9
71	Bulgaria	1339,03	-3	-11
72	Guinea	1331,79	0	-2
73	United Arab Emirates	1330,16	1	4
73	Cape Verde Islands	1330,16	7	24
75	South Africa	1325,64	-4	-15
76	Curacao	1323,06	0	10
76	China PR	1322,96	-1	0
78	Panama	1321,98	0	10
79	Syria	1309,79	-3	-3
80	Oman	1301,51	1	-1
81	Bolivia	1300,11	-2	-7
82	Benin	1293,10	0	-9
83	Haiti	1290,62	1	6
84	Uzbekistan	1287,22	1	4
84	Uganda	1286,76	-1	-14
86	Israel	1283,36	1	4
87	Zambia	1280,21	3	15
88	Gabon	1278,10	-2	-2
89	Belarus	1276,79	-1	8
90	Armenia	1273,28	9	40
91	Georgia	1259,51	-2	-7
92	Vietnam	1258,06	1	0
93	Lebanon	1256,08	-1	-7
93	Congo	1255,88	-3	-9
95	Jordan	1251,58	0	9
96	Luxembourg	1248,29	2	13
97	Cyprus	1240,78	3	17
98	Kyrgyzstan	1240,08	-2	0
99	Madagascar	1238,24	-5	-19
100	Bahrain	1233,23	-3	-5
101	Mauritania	1224,76	0	18
102	Kenya	1206,81	2	20
103	Trinidad and Tobago	1201,33	0	1
104	Palestine	1196,80	-2	-9
105	India	1184,36	-1	-3
106	Thailand	1178,07	4	0
107	Zimbabwe	1175,50	5	-1
108	Guinea-Bissau	1171,19	11	25
109	Korea DPR	1169,96	6	0
110	Azerbaijan	1168,50	-2	-11
111	Namibia	1168,44	10	25
112	Niger	1165,96	1	-6
113	Faroe Islands	1165,45	-6	-18
114	Sierra Leone	1162,62	2	-2
115	Estonia	1162,45	-7	-18
115	Malawi	1162,36	8	22
115	Mozambique	1161,55	-9	-23
118	Central African Republic	1157,64	-4	-13
119	Libya	1156,25	-8	-21
120	Kosovo	1151,73	-3	-3
121	Tajikistan	1151,10	-1	7
122	New Zealand	1149,43	-4	0
122	Sudan	1149,13	5	25
124	Kazakhstan	1147,35	-2	5
125	Philippines	1135,94	-1	0
125	Angola	1135,88	0	2
127	Guatemala	1129,30	3	17
127	Antigua and Barbuda	1129,02	-1	2
129	Rwanda	1123,69	4	21
130	Turkmenistan	1106,51	2	0
131	Comoros	1106,44	-1	-6
132	Equatorial Guinea	1105,08	2	8
133	Togo	1104,18	-5	-11
134	Lithuania	1102,84	-5	-11
135	St. Kitts and Nevis	1091,12	5	17
136	Suriname	1089,43	5	16
137	Tanzania	1088,05	-2	1
138	Latvia	1081,66	-2	0
139	Myanmar	1081,26	-2	0
140	Ethiopia	1079,35	6	13
141	Chinese Taipei	1078,48	-3	0
142	Burundi	1075,64	-4	-2
143	Solomon Islands	1072,78	-2	0
144	Hong Kong	1072,00	-1	0
145	Yemen	1070,54	0	0
146	Lesotho	1069,91	-3	-2
147	Nicaragua	1060,50	2	6
148	Kuwait	1056,30	0	-1
149	Afghanistan	1052,24	1	0
149	Botswana	1051,74	-3	-14
151	Liberia	1047,45	1	0
152	Gambia	1043,45	5	9
153	Malaysia	1040,02	0	0
154	Eswatini	1039,24	-1	-1
155	Maldives	1038,31	0	0
156	Dominican Republic	1036,22	3	18
157	New Caledonia	1035,12	-1	0
157	Andorra	1034,90	-6	-13
159	Singapore	1020,27	-1	0
160	Grenada	1017,58	0	3
161	Tahiti	1014,27	0	0
162	Barbados	1010,97	0	2
163	Fiji	996,27	1	0
163	Vanuatu	995,62	1	0
165	Guyana	990,63	2	3
165	Papua New Guinea	990,55	1	0
167	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	989,32	1	3
168	Bermuda	987,78	1	5
169	South Sudan	982,61	-6	-15
170	Belize	977,95	0	4
171	Nepal	968,37	0	0
172	Mauritius	964,94	0	0
173	Indonesia	964,07	0	0
173	Cambodia	963,79	0	0
175	Malta	955,89	1	5
176	St. Lucia	953,45	-1	0
177	Moldova	948,16	0	-2
178	Puerto Rico	938,86	1	-3
179	Chad	935,01	-1	-12
180	Montserrat	933,64	3	13
181	Cuba	923,03	-1	-13
182	Macau	922,10	0	0
183	Djibouti	918,91	1	0
184	Bangladesh	916,89	2	0
185	Laos	912,07	3	0
186	Liechtenstein	911,05	-5	-13
186	Bhutan	910,96	3	0
188	Dominica	904,26	-4	-15
188	Brunei Darussalam	903,90	3	0
190	Sao Tomé e Príncipe	903,25	-3	-11
191	American Samoa	900,27	1	0
192	Mongolia	896,97	-2	-9
193	Samoa	894,26	1	0
194	Cayman Islands	884,44	-1	-13
195	Gibraltar	880,16	0	-8
196	Timor-Leste	879,43	1	0
196	Somalia	879,13	1	0
198	Guam	872,83	1	0
199	Pakistan	866,81	1	0
200	Seychelles	865,69	2	0
201	Bahamas	861,84	-5	-18
201	Tonga	861,81	2	0
203	Eritrea	855,56	2	0
204	Sri Lanka	853,07	2	0
205	Aruba	850,10	-5	-17
206	Turks and Caicos Islands	843,65	-3	-18
207	US Virgin Islands	829,24	0	-15
208	British Virgin Islands	826,27	0	-16
209	Anguilla	805,32	0	-16
209	San Marino	804,71	1	-5

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

35 comments:

Rodrigo CardosoApril 3, 2021 at 4:05 AM
Hello Ed, I have a question: why are the games Switzerland vs Finland and Sweden vs Estonia given an importance of 5? Are they considered to be outside the window?

Thank you for all your work, I really appreciate it!
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Jaime BroitmanApril 3, 2021 at 7:29 AM
Hello Ed, I guess the San Marino FA are going to be happy as they aren't the worst nation by themselves anymore
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EdApril 8, 2021 at 8:19 AM
Well well, FIFA is on a roll :)

First, they published the ranking on Wednesday instead of the normal Thursday. Second and more important, they finally decided to give their points totals now rounded on two decimals. This makes it much easier to decide which matches should be included. Kudos to FIFA.

A consequence is that the ranking positions are now based on these real points (instead of the rounded integer points), so teams will from now on have their own position and it will hardly occur anymore that two or more teams share a position.

Indeed, the friendlies on the last Wednesday of the match window are calculated with an I-factor of 10, so I will adapt my formulas.

My assumption that the awarded Chad matches would be included, was correct.

FIFA excluded two matches that I included:
- 2021-03-13 Kenya - South Sudan; friendly 1:0 in Nairobi
- 2021-03-26 Uzbekistan - Ghana; friendly 2:1 in Tashkent
It was a Ghana B-team so that's not surprising.

FIFA included two matches that I excluded:
- 2021-03-25 Bahrain - Syria; friendly 3:1 in Manama
- 2021-03-27 Nepal - Bangladesh; friendly 0:0 in Kathmandu
Now this last match was part of a friendly tournament in Nepal and there was a final played in that tournament two days later between the same two teams. Strangely, this final was not included by FIFA !

I will further research the small differences (maximum 0.16 point) that I find for 19 teams in comparison between my calculations and FIFA's unrounded points. I will report on these differences later.
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MartinApril 9, 2021 at 3:11 AM
This comment has been removed by the author.
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monoApril 13, 2021 at 5:32 PM
Hi Ed, here what could be solve the problem;

1. Regarding on some CAF teams differences, I found the culprit which are 3 friendlies played on late October 2020 / early November 2020 : ETH-ZAM (both 22/10 and 25/10) and ETH-SDN (6/11). The points obtained on these matches were eventually has been counted towards November 2020 ranking (ETH = 1064.332168 points, ZAM = 1266.274405, SDN = 1123.864875). However, it seemingly FIFA has abolished the points obtained on these two matches: ETH-ZAM (22/10) (with exchange 1.53335 points) and ETH-SDN (6/11) (with exchange 0.24870 points) , which eventually changing ETH, ZAM and SDN points in December 2020 ranking (ETH = 1065.616984, ZAM = 1264.740889, SDN = 1124.113574). These points were eventually affected the other matches, generally in CHAN 2020 and CAN qualifiers, which played on January until March 2021, and finally fixing the points on some CAF teams. These scenario is quite similar when FIFA abolished the points in match CIV-ZAM (played on 19/6/2019), which changing their points during February 2020 ranking released.

2. Regarding PAN-NCA differences, I believe the only way to fix their points is by assuming match PAN-NCA (played on 25/2/2020) played after PAN-GUA (played 4/3/2020). It seems awkward, but let shall be agree this error should be concerned for the further findings. Credit to Martin.

3. Regarding GUY-BRB differences, as we thought, the points obtained during the match both played on 6/9/2018 has been abolished once the match was forfeited. Hence, GUY obtained 942.4217004 points and BRB obtained 1006.46645347 points. These points eventually being included as starting point for ‘reformed’ match which resulted GUY 3-0 BRB, with exchange 8.4170 points, finally fixing the both teams’ points.

Hopefully this will be useful to solve your fixing and not regret to try. Thanks for Mick’s and Martin’s effort. Really appreciate it.
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EdApril 17, 2021 at 11:25 AM
Hi mono,

sorry but I hadn't had the time until now to thoroughly research your suggestions. I think you hit the sweet spot regarding the CAF-teams. The correction of the matches ETH-ZAM and ETH-SDN in the December 2020 ranking solves indeed all remaining differences in CAF. Well done!

Regarding the CONCACAF teams: after the plausible GUY-BRB adjustment Martin suggested, the only remaining differences of 0.01 point are PAN and NCA. The suggestion of Martin to assume that GUA-PAN was played before NCA-PAN (instead of what actually happened) indeed solves those tiny differences also, so that must be somehow what happened. I just try to get my head around what has happened there exactly. Because the first published ranking after those matches (April 2020) with the integer point-value of 1305 for PAN showed already that both PAN-matches must have been included in that ranking. If the NCA-PAN match were only first included in the next to April (i.e. June) ranking or later the PAN points in April would have been 1306. This I can still not understand. But I can't find any other possible cause also, so I settle for this 'explanation'.

Anyway, I want to thank Martin and mono for their efforts and (reasonable) suggestions. I'm now producing the new match points calculation sheet from scratch because the earliest changes already occured in December 2019 (the BRB issues). When ready (somewhere tomorrow) it will be uploaded to it's usual location.
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AnonymousApril 23, 2021 at 12:46 PM
Hi Ed
I'm still having trouble coming up with the reversing exchange points on the matches on 12-6-18 between Barbados-Guyana and Barbados-El Salvador. Is there a way to show the step by step process to recalculate.
Thanks
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EdApril 24, 2021 at 5:00 PM
Well, that's not so easy.

First the facts:
2018-09-06 the CNL qualifier GUY-BRB wsa played and ended 2-2. Matchpoints exchanged from BRB to GUY 0,971.
2018-10-13 the CNL qualifier SLV-BRB was played and ended 3-0. Matchpoints exchanged from BRB to SLV 3,307.
In the December 2018 ranking there was an adjustment of the points for BRB and GUY (and probably SLV too) because both CNL qualifiers were awarded 3-0 to resp. GUY and SLV as BRB fielded one or more ineligible players in these matches. Based on the rounded points in that ranking BRB should have 998 (instead of my calculated and rounded 1005), GUY should have 951 (instead of my calculated and rounded 943) and SLV's points of 1327 were 'correct'.

The following calculation has the assumption that both of the matches, so GUY-BRB and SLV-BRB are awarded in December 2018 3-0 against Barbados and recalculated with some starting points for each of the concerned teams and that there are correction terms introduced in the December 2018 ranking because of that. Furthermore I assume that the correction term for each team was determined as the difference between what they already received for the original match and the resulting points of the recalculated match.

Now in the March 2021 ranking we finally have two decimal resulting points for all teams and can I determine that, with reverse engineering and recalculating all affected matches from December 2018 until now, the correction term for the match GUY-BRB must have been 7,448 and for SLV-BRB must have been 0,001. Focussing on the GUY-BRB match, this correction term -and the original points exchange of 0,971 points- means that in the recalculated awarded match 8,419 points must have been exchanged. The elo win expectancy for GUY in the recalculated match can then be determined as 15*(1-We) = 8,419 or We = 0,4387. The difference between the starting points of BRB and GUY in the recalculated match must then be 600 * log(1/We - 1) = 64,181. But that's as far as I can go. Exactly which starting points were used by FIFA for each team and how they came by them I don't know.
Martin suggested to take the average of the starting points in December 2018 without the awarded match included and the starting points in December 2018 with the awarded match included, but that leads to a win expectancy of 0,4398. I've tried other variations, but none gave the exact desired win expectancy.

So I decided to just introduce the correct correction term for the concerned teams in December 2018: BRB -7,449, GUY 7,448 and SLV 0,001. At least with these terms I can correctly reproduce the complete March 2021 ranking rounded on two decimals.
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mickMay 1, 2021 at 8:02 PM
Hi Ed!
Let me ask you how did you get that exchanged points 8.419?
I made several updates in excel sheet where you provided results. But didn't rewrite your cells. I rather put formulas which exactly calculate expectancy, points exchanged and points after match. I made several permutations, i.e. removed match from 06.Sept.2018 and inserted new one at 06.Dec.2018. Your updated values (998,046 for BRB and 950,841 for GUY) did not match. Then I tried simply to update score from 06.09 from 2:2 to 3:0 for GUY. It also did not lead me to correct update of points exchanged. How exactly was recalculation made? And why is El Salvador only team which points are updated as well, since BRB played against VIR and VIN in the meanwhile too?
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EdMay 2, 2021 at 11:20 AM
Hi mick, the premisse is that the match GUY-BRB was played on 6 Sep 2018 and points were then calculated according to the initial 2:2 draw. The resulting points for GUY and BRB were subsequently used in their next matches in October (GUY-TCA and SLV-BRB) and November 2018 (VIR-BRB). Only in December 2018 the GUY-BRB match and the SLV-BRB were awarded 3:0 to GUY resp. SLV and there were at that moment correction terms introduced to the points totals of GUY, BRB and SLV because of these awards.
These correction terms were subsequently applied in the starting points for the first matches of GUY, BRB and SLV after the December 2018 ranking was published. The points calculations of the October and November 2018 matches of GUY, BRB and SLV were not adjusted.

As I wrote, I could only determine the 'exact' value of these correction terms because we now have two decimal values for each team available in the March 2021 ranking and I could reverse engineer from March 2021 backwards to December 2018 the 'exact' starting points for each team which played in any affected match between December 2018 and now.
I still can't think of a logical way that UEFA followed to determine the value of the respective correction terms. All logical explanations I could think of and explored didn't result in the exact correction terms, so a few small differences in the March 2021 ranking remained for each explanation I could come up with.
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EdMay 2, 2021 at 11:32 AM
Did I say UEFA ? I mean FIFA, of course :)
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mickMay 2, 2021 at 8:54 PM
I am just curious how did you come up with 8,419516 exchange. I tried all possible combinations to adjust score 3:0 for GUY and never got such a value:

1) 1003,871 936,000 (values before Sept match) -> 8,471
2) 1005,495 (BRB value before Dec) 936,000(GUY value before Sept) -> 8,494
3) 1005,495 943,393 (values before Dec, I immagined that new game was played at Dec) -> 8,390
4) 1003,871 (BRB before Sept match) 943,393 (GUY before Dec) -> 8,366

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EdMay 4, 2021 at 9:22 PM
I see I still use the value 8,419516 in the sheet. That's not correct, it should be 8,419 without the rest of the decimals.
I've adjusted that in the sheet.

Like I wrote: my experiments in trying to achieve this value were also in vain. I decided to let it rest and just apply this correction factor so that I can at least correctly reproduce the March 2021 values with two decimals.
It's a pity, but we are talking now about differences of less than 0,01 point. I can live with that :)
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mickMay 6, 2021 at 9:24 AM
Of course, however, thanks for being so active 🙂
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Thursday, April 1, 2021

FIFA ranking: April 2021 final preview

35 comments: