Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic CONCACAF has adjusted their initially proposed qualification format for the World Cup to the following process:
- a group stage with 6 groups of 5 teams. Each team plays 2 home matches and 2 away matches against the other group opponents this March and June.
- the 6 group winners play (still in June) in 3 two-legged play-offs for a place in the octogonal. The pairing of these group winners in the play-offs is fixed: winner A plays F, winner B plays E and winner C plays D.
- a final group stage with 8 teams in a double round-robin format (octogonal) from September to March 2022. The top 5 from the July 2020 ranking (Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras) is automatically qualified for this stage.
- the top 3 of the octogonal qualifies for Qatar; number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs in June 2022.
This crowded schedule can only be realised because the June window contains 4 MD's and the September, October, January and March windows will contain 3 MD's each.
The Final Four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 between Mexico, USA, Costa Rica and Honduras is now scheduled for this June.
And the final qualification stages for the Gold Cup 2021 were also postponed last year. With Qatar invited as guest, the 12 teams will now play in three 4-team paths for the 3 remaining berths in the tournament. Each path consists of two one-off semi-finals and a final. These play-off paths are to be played in the first week of July, directly prior to the Gold Cup itself. The composition of the paths and the Gold Cup groups were drawn last September already. The match schedule for the Gold Cup is still to be revealed though.
The first two match days in round 1 of their World Cup qualification were played in March.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.
The first simulations before the start of the qualification can be found here.
First the round 1 qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group.
|
group A |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
El Salvador |
85,66 |
12,16 |
1,81 |
0,37 |
0,00 |
|
Grenada |
5,68 |
43,22 |
39,71 |
11,30 |
0,09 |
|
Antigua and Barbuda |
8,38 |
38,69 |
27,70 |
25,23 |
0,00 |
|
Montserrat |
0,28 |
5,91 |
30,55 |
54,64 |
8,62 |
|
US Virgin Islands |
0,00 |
0,02 |
0,23 |
8,46 |
91,29 |
|
group B |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
Canada |
93,43 |
6,38 |
0,19 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Suriname |
6,15 |
71,83 |
22,02 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Bermuda |
0,42 |
21,79 |
75,47 |
2,32 |
0,00 |
|
Cayman Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
2,20 |
56,10 |
41,70 |
|
Aruba |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,12 |
41,58 |
58,30 |
|
group C |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
Curacao |
67,46 |
32,41 |
0,13 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Guatemala |
32,52 |
64,57 |
2,86 |
0,05 |
0,00 |
|
Cuba |
0,00 |
0,48 |
53,06 |
46,11 |
0,35 |
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
0,02 |
2,54 |
43,94 |
53,47 |
0,03 |
|
British Virgin Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,37 |
99,62 |
|
group D |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
Panama |
91,36 |
8,53 |
0,11 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Dominican Republic |
8,57 |
74,47 |
16,72 |
0,24 |
0,00 |
|
Barbados |
0,07 |
16,09 |
55,79 |
28,04 |
0,01 |
|
Dominica |
0,00 |
0,91 |
27,37 |
70,18 |
1,54 |
|
Anguilla |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
1,54 |
98,45 |
|
group E |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
|
Haiti |
89,02 |
10,52 |
0,46 |
0,00 |
|
|
Nicaragua |
10,64 |
68,99 |
20,37 |
0,00 |
|
|
Belize |
0,34 |
20,49 |
79,17 |
0,00 |
|
|
Turks and Caicos Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
|
|
group F |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
56,24 |
34,38 |
8,62 |
0,76 |
0,00 |
|
St. Kitts and Nevis |
36,33 |
37,87 |
25,38 |
0,42 |
0,00 |
|
Guyana |
7,40 |
25,59 |
51,59 |
15,09 |
0,33 |
|
Puerto Rico |
0,03 |
2,09 |
13,75 |
69,01 |
15,12 |
|
Bahamas |
0,00 |
0,07 |
0,66 |
14,72 |
84,55 |
|
Canada |
93,43 |
11,13 |
|||
|
Panama |
91,36 |
2,16 |
|||
|
Haiti |
89,02 |
-0,59 |
|||
|
El Salvador |
85,66 |
3,79 |
|||
|
Curacao |
67,46 |
32,24 |
|||
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
56,24 |
-2,79 |
|||
|
St. Kitts and Nevis |
36,33 |
17,48 |
|||
|
Guatemala |
32,52 |
-19,23 |
|||
|
Nicaragua |
10,64 |
3,99 |
|||
|
Dominican Republic |
8,57 |
2,22 |
|||
|
Antigua and Barbuda |
8,38 |
0,72 |
|||
|
Guyana |
7,40 |
-11,41 |
|||
|
Suriname |
6,15 |
-4,46 |
|||
|
Grenada |
5,68 |
-4,57 |
|||
|
Bermuda |
0,42 |
-6,53 |
|||
|
Belize |
0,34 |
-2,05 |
|||
|
Montserrat |
0,28 |
0,10 |
|||
|
Barbados |
0,07 |
-2,63 |
|||
|
Puerto Rico |
0,03 |
-2,25 |
|||
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
0,02 |
-3,03 |
|||
|
Cuba |
0,00 |
-9,98 |
|||
|
Dominica |
0,00 |
-1,75 |
|||
|
Bahamas |
0,00 |
-1,03 |
|||
|
Cayman Islands |
0,00 |
-0,10 |
|||
|
US Virgin Islands |
0,00 |
-0,04 |
|||
|
Aruba |
0,00 |
-0,04 |
|||
|
Turks and Caicos Islands |
0,00 |
-0,04 |
|||
|
British Virgin Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|||
|
Anguilla |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Panama |
62,95 |
[68,90] |
1,62 |
||
|
El Salvador |
51,86 |
[60,54] |
0,78 |
||
|
Canada |
48,04 |
[51,42] |
6,70 |
||
|
Haiti |
48,01 |
[53,93] |
-4,73 |
||
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
28,69 |
[51,01] |
-0,41 |
||
|
Curacao |
21,09 |
[31,26] |
9,02 |
||
|
Guatemala |
13,48 |
[41,45] |
-7,76 |
||
|
St. Kitts and Nevis |
13,07 |
[35,98] |
6,33 |
||
|
Guyana |
2,52 |
[34,05] |
-4,59 |
||
|
Dominican Republic |
2,46 |
[28,70] |
0,53 |
||
|
Nicaragua |
2,40 |
[22,56] |
0,82 |
||
|
Antigua and Barbuda |
2,21 |
[26,37] |
0,09 |
||
|
Grenada |
1,62 |
[28,52] |
-1,67 |
||
|
Suriname |
1,46 |
[23,74] |
-0,69 |
||
|
Bermuda |
0,08 |
[19,05] |
-1,31 |
||
|
Montserrat |
0,02 |
[7,14] |
0,00 |
||
|
Barbados |
0,01 |
[14,29] |
-0,70 |
||
|
Belize |
0,01 |
[2,94] |
-0,56 |
||
|
Puerto Rico |
0,01 |
[33,33] |
-0,39 |
||
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
0,01 |
[50,00] |
-0,37 |
||
|
Cuba |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
-2,02 |
||
|
Dominica |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
-0,32 |
||
|
Bahamas |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
-0,14 |
||
|
Cayman Islands |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
-0,01 |
||
|
Turks and Caicos Islands |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
-0,01 |
||
|
US Virgin Islands |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
0,00 |
||
|
Aruba |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
0,00 |
|
octogonal (stage 3) |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
7th |
8th |
WCq |
|
Mexico |
70,24 |
19,34 |
6,22 |
2,58 |
1,16 |
0,37 |
0,08 |
0,01 |
95,80 |
|
USA |
18,68 |
36,92 |
19,48 |
11,81 |
6,34 |
3,87 |
2,23 |
0,67 |
75,08 |
|
Costa Rica |
3,36 |
11,66 |
17,83 |
17,98 |
16,81 |
15,22 |
11,25 |
5,89 |
32,85 |
|
Honduras |
2,40 |
9,64 |
16,05 |
17,51 |
17,57 |
15,55 |
13,46 |
7,82 |
28,09 |
|
Jamaica |
1,25 |
5,84 |
12,52 |
15,56 |
17,70 |
18,88 |
17,13 |
11,12 |
19,61 |
|
Canada |
1,81 |
6,20 |
8,86 |
8,99 |
7,92 |
6,99 |
4,82 |
2,45 |
16,87 |
|
Haiti |
1,01 |
4,30 |
6,69 |
7,96 |
8,40 |
8,10 |
7,11 |
4,44 |
12,00 |
|
Panama |
0,79 |
3,62 |
6,73 |
8,65 |
10,52 |
11,84 |
12,03 |
8,77 |
11,14 |
|
Guatemala |
0,20 |
0,74 |
1,29 |
1,78 |
2,34 |
2,26 |
2,73 |
2,14 |
2,23 |
|
Curacao |
0,03 |
0,43 |
1,27 |
1,88 |
2,41 |
3,74 |
5,89 |
5,44 |
1,73 |
|
El Salvador |
0,22 |
1,14 |
2,48 |
4,12 |
6,39 |
8,32 |
12,11 |
17,08 |
3,84 |
|
Suriname |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,04 |
0,09 |
0,16 |
0,21 |
0,36 |
0,59 |
0,05 |
|
Barbados |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
0,01 |
0,14 |
0,44 |
0,96 |
1,85 |
3,50 |
6,55 |
15,24 |
0,59 |
|
Bermuda |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,02 |
0,03 |
0,03 |
0,00 |
|
Nicaragua |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,05 |
0,04 |
0,17 |
0,61 |
1,53 |
0,00 |
|
Dominican Republic |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,06 |
0,19 |
0,62 |
1,59 |
0,00 |
|
Grenada |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,01 |
0,05 |
0,03 |
0,28 |
1,24 |
0,01 |
|
St. Kitts and Nevis |
0,00 |
0,02 |
0,08 |
0,07 |
0,22 |
0,53 |
2,04 |
10,11 |
0,10 |
|
Guyana |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
0,04 |
0,12 |
0,43 |
1,92 |
0,01 |
|
Antigua and Barbuda |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,02 |
0,09 |
0,23 |
1,87 |
0,00 |
|
Belize |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
|
Montserrat |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,02 |
0,00 |
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
|
Puerto Rico |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
|
Cuba |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Dominica |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Bahamas |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Cayman Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Turks and Caicos Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
to win semi final |
|||||
|
Mexico |
91,15 |
-0,74 |
|||
|
USA |
88,33 |
1,20 |
|||
|
Honduras |
11,67 |
-1,20 |
|||
|
Costa Rica |
8,85 |
0,74 |
|||
|
to win final |
|||||
|
Mexico |
61,35 |
[67,31] |
-3,24 |
||
|
USA |
35,37 |
[40,04] |
3,23 |
||
|
Costa Rica |
1,88 |
[21,24] |
0,21 |
||
|
Honduras |
1,40 |
[12,00] |
-0,20 |
|
to win a
path semi final |
|||||
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
98,43 |
-0,33 |
|||
|
Haiti |
97,31 |
0,23 |
|||
|
Guadeloupe |
95,30 |
0,78 |
|||
|
Guatemala |
93,88 |
0,83 |
|||
|
Bermuda |
89,66 |
-0,30 |
|||
|
Cuba |
74,79 |
-2,43 |
|||
|
French Guyana |
25,21 |
2,43 |
|||
|
Barbados |
10,34 |
0,30 |
|||
|
Guyana |
6,12 |
-0,83 |
|||
|
Bahamas |
4,70 |
-0,78 |
|||
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
2,69 |
-0,23 |
|||
|
Montserrat |
1,57 |
0,33 |
|||
|
to win a
path final |
|||||
|
Haiti |
91,51 |
[94,04] |
1,00 |
||
|
Guatemala |
88,19 |
[93,94] |
0,70 |
||
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
81,72 |
[83,02] |
0,94 |
||
|
Cuba |
13,19 |
[17,64] |
-1,43 |
||
|
Guadeloupe |
6,90 |
[7,24] |
0,29 |
||
|
Bermuda |
6,46 |
[7,20] |
-0,74 |
||
|
Guyana |
4,86 |
[79,41] |
-0,96 |
||
|
French Guyana |
4,73 |
[18,76] |
0,30 |
||
|
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
1,71 |
[63,57] |
-0,28 |
||
|
Montserrat |
0,36 |
[22,93] |
0,19 |
||
|
Barbados |
0,32 |
[3,09] |
0,02 |
||
|
Bahamas |
0,05 |
[1,06] |
-0,03 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
No comments:
Post a Comment