Next Thursday May 27th FIFA publishes the May ranking. Since the March window no matches are played. Only for coming Sunday (the last day before the deadline of the May ranking) two matches are scheduled. Both are friendlies and it's not even certain they will count for the ranking.
It beats me why FIFA decided to publish a ranking while it could be easily foreseen that only a few friendlies could be included. In the months of April and May the domestic competitions finish in Europe and there simply is no room to play NT-football.
And then the contrast with the next ranking. For the next August ranking already 338 matches are scheduled, including three continental final tournaments, a bunch of World Cup qualifiers and plenty of (preparatory) friendlies.
The probable results of both scheduled friendlies generated using elo ratings are presented below.
The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.
0 2021-05-23 Kuwait - Malaysia; Friendly; We (elo): 75; 1
1 2021-05-23 Ukraine - Bahrain; Friendly; We (elo): 89; 1
The points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team are presented below:
0 2021-05-23 KUW - MAS; We (FIFA): 52; W: 2,4/-2,4; D: -0,1/0,1; L: -2,6/2,6
1 2021-05-23 UKR - BHR; We (FIFA): 74; W: 1,3/-1,3; D: -1,2/1,2; L: -3,7/3,7
Staf safe and healthy everybody !
Behold all the spectacular changes:
|
pos May |
team |
pts May |
+/- pos |
+/- pts |
|
1 |
Belgium |
1783,38 |
0 |
0 |
|
2 |
France |
1757,30 |
0 |
0 |
|
3 |
Brazil |
1742,65 |
0 |
0 |
|
4 |
England |
1686,78 |
0 |
0 |
|
5 |
Portugal |
1666,12 |
0 |
0 |
|
6 |
Spain |
1648,13 |
0 |
0 |
|
7 |
Italy |
1642,06 |
0 |
0 |
|
8 |
Argentina |
1641,95 |
0 |
0 |
|
9 |
Uruguay |
1639,08 |
0 |
0 |
|
10 |
Denmark |
1631,55 |
0 |
0 |
|
11 |
Mexico |
1629,56 |
0 |
0 |
|
12 |
Germany |
1609,12 |
0 |
0 |
|
13 |
Switzerland |
1606,21 |
0 |
0 |
|
14 |
Croatia |
1605,75 |
0 |
0 |
|
15 |
Colombia |
1600,66 |
0 |
0 |
|
16 |
Netherlands |
1598,04 |
0 |
0 |
|
17 |
Wales |
1570,36 |
0 |
0 |
|
18 |
Sweden |
1569,81 |
0 |
0 |
|
19 |
Chile |
1569,52 |
0 |
0 |
|
20 |
USA |
1555,42 |
0 |
0 |
|
21 |
Poland |
1549,87 |
0 |
0 |
|
22 |
Senegal |
1542,45 |
0 |
0 |
|
23 |
Austria |
1523,42 |
0 |
0 |
|
24 |
Ukraine |
1517,14 |
0 |
1,29 |
|
25 |
Serbia |
1512,90 |
0 |
0 |
|
26 |
Tunisia |
1512,88 |
0 |
0 |
|
27 |
Peru |
1511,88 |
0 |
0 |
|
28 |
Japan |
1509,34 |
0 |
0 |
|
29 |
Turkey |
1505,05 |
0 |
0 |
|
30 |
Venezuela |
1500,71 |
0 |
0 |
|
31 |
Iran |
1499,52 |
0 |
0 |
|
32 |
Nigeria |
1487,16 |
0 |
0 |
|
33 |
Algeria |
1486,69 |
0 |
0 |
|
34 |
Morocco |
1479,32 |
0 |
0 |
|
35 |
Paraguay |
1476,02 |
0 |
0 |
|
36 |
Slovakia |
1475,24 |
0 |
0 |
|
37 |
Hungary |
1468,75 |
0 |
0 |
|
38 |
Russia |
1462,65 |
0 |
0 |
|
39 |
Korea Republic |
1460,25 |
0 |
0 |
|
40 |
Czech Republic |
1458,81 |
0 |
0 |
|
41 |
Australia |
1457,49 |
0 |
0 |
|
42 |
Norway |
1452,34 |
0 |
0 |
|
43 |
Romania |
1449,23 |
0 |
0 |
|
44 |
Scotland |
1441,43 |
0 |
0 |
|
45 |
Jamaica |
1432,65 |
0 |
0 |
|
46 |
Egypt |
1432,63 |
0 |
0 |
|
47 |
Republic of Ireland |
1427,22 |
0 |
0 |
|
48 |
Northern Ireland |
1425,74 |
0 |
0 |
|
49 |
Ghana |
1425,26 |
0 |
0 |
|
50 |
Costa Rica |
1423,40 |
0 |
0 |
|
51 |
Greece |
1418,70 |
0 |
0 |
|
52 |
Iceland |
1415,99 |
0 |
0 |
|
53 |
Ecuador |
1413,01 |
0 |
0 |
|
54 |
Finland |
1410,82 |
0 |
0 |
|
55 |
Cameroon |
1404,87 |
0 |
0 |
|
55 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1404,87 |
0 |
0 |
|
57 |
Mali |
1400,94 |
0 |
0 |
|
58 |
Qatar |
1397,92 |
0 |
0 |
|
59 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
1397,77 |
0 |
0 |
|
60 |
Burkina Faso |
1392,90 |
0 |
0 |
|
61 |
Congo DR |
1376,65 |
0 |
0 |
|
62 |
North Macedonia |
1374,73 |
0 |
0 |
|
63 |
Slovenia |
1369,88 |
0 |
0 |
|
64 |
Montenegro |
1368,49 |
0 |
0 |
|
65 |
Saudi Arabia |
1364,39 |
0 |
0 |
|
66 |
Albania |
1362,09 |
0 |
0 |
|
67 |
Honduras |
1361,21 |
0 |
0 |
|
68 |
Iraq |
1352,82 |
0 |
0 |
|
69 |
El Salvador |
1341,24 |
0 |
0 |
|
70 |
Canada |
1340,56 |
0 |
0 |
|
71 |
Bulgaria |
1339,03 |
0 |
0 |
|
72 |
Guinea |
1331,79 |
0 |
0 |
|
73 |
United Arab Emirates |
1330,16 |
0 |
0 |
|
73 |
Cape Verde Islands |
1330,16 |
0 |
0 |
|
75 |
South Africa |
1325,64 |
0 |
0 |
|
76 |
Curacao |
1323,06 |
0 |
0 |
|
77 |
China PR |
1322,96 |
0 |
0 |
|
78 |
Panama |
1321,97 |
0 |
0 |
|
79 |
Syria |
1304,12 |
0 |
0 |
|
80 |
Oman |
1301,51 |
0 |
0 |
|
81 |
Bolivia |
1300,11 |
0 |
0 |
|
82 |
Benin |
1293,10 |
0 |
0 |
|
83 |
Haiti |
1290,62 |
0 |
0 |
|
84 |
Uganda |
1286,76 |
0 |
0 |
|
85 |
Israel |
1283,36 |
0 |
0 |
|
86 |
Uzbekistan |
1280,99 |
0 |
0 |
|
87 |
Zambia |
1280,15 |
0 |
0 |
|
88 |
Gabon |
1278,10 |
0 |
0 |
|
89 |
Belarus |
1276,79 |
0 |
0 |
|
90 |
Armenia |
1273,28 |
0 |
0 |
|
91 |
Georgia |
1259,51 |
0 |
0 |
|
92 |
Vietnam |
1258,06 |
0 |
0 |
|
93 |
Lebanon |
1256,08 |
0 |
0 |
|
94 |
Congo |
1255,88 |
0 |
0 |
|
95 |
Jordan |
1251,63 |
0 |
0 |
|
96 |
Luxembourg |
1244,86 |
0 |
0 |
|
97 |
Cyprus |
1240,78 |
0 |
0 |
|
98 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1240,08 |
0 |
0 |
|
99 |
Madagascar |
1238,24 |
1 |
0 |
|
100 |
Bahrain |
1237,60 |
-1 |
-1,29 |
|
101 |
Mauritania |
1224,76 |
0 |
0 |
|
102 |
Kenya |
1205,26 |
0 |
0 |
|
103 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
1201,33 |
0 |
0 |
|
104 |
Palestine |
1196,80 |
0 |
0 |
|
105 |
India |
1184,36 |
0 |
0 |
|
106 |
Thailand |
1178,07 |
0 |
0 |
|
107 |
Zimbabwe |
1175,50 |
0 |
0 |
|
108 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1171,19 |
0 |
0 |
|
109 |
Korea DPR |
1169,96 |
0 |
0 |
|
110 |
Azerbaijan |
1168,53 |
0 |
0 |
|
111 |
Namibia |
1168,44 |
0 |
0 |
|
112 |
Niger |
1165,91 |
0 |
0 |
|
113 |
Faroe Islands |
1165,45 |
0 |
0 |
|
114 |
Sierra Leone |
1162,61 |
0 |
0 |
|
115 |
Malawi |
1162,39 |
0 |
0 |
|
116 |
Estonia |
1161,58 |
0 |
0 |
|
117 |
Mozambique |
1161,55 |
0 |
0 |
|
118 |
Central African Republic |
1157,64 |
0 |
0 |
|
119 |
Libya |
1156,26 |
0 |
0 |
|
120 |
Kosovo |
1151,73 |
0 |
0 |
|
121 |
Tajikistan |
1151,10 |
0 |
0 |
|
122 |
New Zealand |
1149,43 |
0 |
0 |
|
123 |
Sudan |
1149,14 |
0 |
0 |
|
124 |
Kazakhstan |
1147,35 |
0 |
0 |
|
125 |
Philippines |
1135,94 |
0 |
0 |
|
126 |
Angola |
1135,88 |
0 |
0 |
|
127 |
Guatemala |
1129,30 |
0 |
0 |
|
128 |
Antigua and Barbuda |
1129,02 |
0 |
0 |
|
129 |
Rwanda |
1123,69 |
0 |
0 |
|
130 |
Turkmenistan |
1106,51 |
0 |
0 |
|
131 |
Comoros |
1106,44 |
0 |
0 |
|
132 |
Equatorial Guinea |
1105,20 |
0 |
0 |
|
133 |
Togo |
1104,14 |
0 |
0 |
|
134 |
Lithuania |
1102,84 |
0 |
0 |
|
135 |
St. Kitts and Nevis |
1091,12 |
0 |
0 |
|
136 |
Suriname |
1089,43 |
0 |
0 |
|
137 |
Tanzania |
1088,05 |
0 |
0 |
|
138 |
Latvia |
1081,66 |
0 |
0 |
|
139 |
Myanmar |
1081,26 |
0 |
0 |
|
140 |
Ethiopia |
1079,41 |
0 |
0 |
|
141 |
Chinese Taipei |
1078,48 |
0 |
0 |
|
142 |
Burundi |
1075,64 |
0 |
0 |
|
143 |
Solomon Islands |
1072,78 |
0 |
0 |
|
144 |
Hong Kong |
1072,00 |
0 |
0 |
|
145 |
Yemen |
1070,54 |
0 |
0 |
|
146 |
Lesotho |
1069,91 |
0 |
0 |
|
147 |
Nicaragua |
1060,51 |
0 |
0 |
|
148 |
Kuwait |
1056,30 |
0 |
0 |
|
149 |
Afghanistan |
1052,24 |
0 |
0 |
|
150 |
Botswana |
1051,82 |
0 |
0 |
|
151 |
Liberia |
1047,29 |
0 |
0 |
|
152 |
Gambia |
1043,45 |
0 |
0 |
|
153 |
Malaysia |
1040,02 |
0 |
0 |
|
154 |
Eswatini |
1039,24 |
0 |
0 |
|
155 |
Maldives |
1038,31 |
0 |
0 |
|
156 |
Dominican Republic |
1036,22 |
0 |
0 |
|
157 |
New Caledonia |
1035,12 |
0 |
0 |
|
158 |
Andorra |
1034,90 |
0 |
0 |
|
159 |
Singapore |
1020,27 |
0 |
0 |
|
160 |
Grenada |
1017,57 |
0 |
0 |
|
161 |
Tahiti |
1014,27 |
0 |
0 |
|
162 |
Barbados |
1010,95 |
0 |
0 |
|
163 |
Fiji |
996,27 |
0 |
0 |
|
164 |
Vanuatu |
995,62 |
0 |
0 |
|
165 |
Guyana |
990,65 |
0 |
0 |
|
166 |
Papua New Guinea |
990,55 |
0 |
0 |
|
167 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
989,32 |
0 |
0 |
|
168 |
Bermuda |
987,78 |
0 |
0 |
|
169 |
South Sudan |
984,19 |
0 |
0 |
|
170 |
Belize |
977,95 |
0 |
0 |
|
171 |
Nepal |
967,88 |
0 |
0 |
|
172 |
Mauritius |
964,94 |
0 |
0 |
|
173 |
Indonesia |
964,07 |
0 |
0 |
|
174 |
Cambodia |
963,79 |
0 |
0 |
|
175 |
Malta |
955,89 |
0 |
0 |
|
176 |
St. Lucia |
953,45 |
0 |
0 |
|
177 |
Moldova |
948,16 |
0 |
0 |
|
178 |
Puerto Rico |
938,86 |
0 |
0 |
|
179 |
Chad |
935,00 |
0 |
0 |
|
180 |
Montserrat |
933,64 |
0 |
0 |
|
181 |
Cuba |
923,03 |
0 |
0 |
|
182 |
Macau |
922,10 |
0 |
0 |
|
183 |
Djibouti |
918,91 |
0 |
0 |
|
184 |
Bangladesh |
917,38 |
0 |
0 |
|
185 |
Laos |
912,07 |
0 |
0 |
|
186 |
Liechtenstein |
911,05 |
0 |
0 |
|
187 |
Bhutan |
910,96 |
0 |
0 |
|
188 |
Dominica |
904,26 |
0 |
0 |
|
189 |
Brunei Darussalam |
903,90 |
0 |
0 |
|
190 |
Sao Tomé e Príncipe |
903,31 |
0 |
0 |
|
191 |
American Samoa |
900,27 |
0 |
0 |
|
192 |
Mongolia |
896,97 |
0 |
0 |
|
193 |
Samoa |
894,26 |
0 |
0 |
|
194 |
Cayman Islands |
884,44 |
0 |
0 |
|
195 |
Gibraltar |
880,16 |
0 |
0 |
|
196 |
Timor-Leste |
879,43 |
0 |
0 |
|
197 |
Somalia |
879,13 |
0 |
0 |
|
198 |
Guam |
872,83 |
0 |
0 |
|
199 |
Pakistan |
866,81 |
0 |
0 |
|
200 |
Seychelles |
865,69 |
0 |
0 |
|
201 |
Bahamas |
861,84 |
0 |
0 |
|
202 |
Tonga |
861,81 |
0 |
0 |
|
203 |
Eritrea |
855,56 |
0 |
0 |
|
204 |
Sri Lanka |
853,07 |
0 |
0 |
|
205 |
Aruba |
850,10 |
0 |
0 |
|
206 |
Turks and Caicos Islands |
843,65 |
0 |
0 |
|
207 |
US Virgin Islands |
829,13 |
0 |
0 |
|
208 |
British Virgin Islands |
826,27 |
0 |
0 |
|
209 |
Anguilla |
805,42 |
0 |
0 |
|
210 |
San Marino |
804,71 |
0 |
0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Will there be an AFC simulation before the forstå group stage is over? Quite a lot of change since the previous one with North Korea out, 5th placed teams not counting in 2nd ranking and centralized group stage endings
ReplyDeleteYeah, now that it's finally clear how AFC is going to handle the withdrawal of North Korea, I think it's interesting to see how that works out for the second place candidates in each group and their chances to qualify for the third round. I will publish the latest AFC-simulations somewhere this weekend.
ReplyDeleteHello Ed,
ReplyDeleteSeems you made a mistake for Ukraine. They make 1-1 against Bahrain thus they loose 1,2 points and don't win 1,29 points.
Thanks for you great job.
You have seen the date of this post ? May 20th, so before the match date of May 23rd of this match. It was an elo prediction, also indicated by the sentence "The probable results for both friendlies generated using elo ratings are etc."
ReplyDeleteSorry my mistake. I check directly the list without checking the date you post and don't take care it was a preview and not a final list as usual you post after the date of publication. Sorry for my quick post.
ReplyDeleteEd, I want to ask about the weighting of the matches. For this month, the international match dates for UEFA and CONMEBOL are only until 8 June, while the other confederation still have time until 15 June. So if teams from UEFA played matches after 8 June, for example Portugal vs Israel match on 9 June, what I factor will be applied for the match, 5 or 10? And if teams from different confederation meet each other, what I factor will be used? For example, Japan vs Serbia match on 11 June
ReplyDeleteI can only look at earlier examples of how FIFA handled such cases:
ReplyDelete1) a friendly between two AFC teams played inside the September 2020 window had an I of 10, while that window was officially opened only for UEFA
2) a friendly between two UEFA teams played on Wednesday March 31 this year had an I of 10, while the March window was officially extended by that one day for UEFA
3) a friendly between teams from different confederations inside an officially designated window for only one of the two confederations hasn't occurred yet.
So I think what will happen is that:
- POR-ISR will get an I of 10 because it is comparable to case 1
- JPN-SRB is a case 3, but I expect it will have an I of 10 also because it is a valid window for one of the two teams.
But of course, let's wait and see...
Ok thanks Ed
ReplyDeleteEd, can you post FIFA Rankings August probable ranking?
ReplyDelete