UEFA qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (May 2021)

The first three match days in European qualification for the World Cup 2022 have been played last March. In this qualification there are 10 groups with the group winners qualifying directly for Qatar. The 10 group runners-up will compete with the two best UNL group winners, not qualified already, in 3 play-off paths of 4 teams for the final 3 UEFA berths. These single leg semi-final and final play-offs will be played in March 2022.

In October the UEFA Nations League 2021 Final Four will be played between the league A group winners Italy, Belgium, France and Spain.

And not to forget: this June the postponed EURO 2020 will be played, still with the same match schedule, but Dublin and Bilbao are no longer venues because of the local strict COVID measures conflicting with the requirement of UEFA to play at least with some fans in the stands. Their matches are relocated to St. Petersburg (group matches Dublin), London (round of 16 Dublin) and Seville (group matches Bilbao).

 

Here are the probabilities (in %), generated over 10.000 simulations for all these tournaments. Also all currently scheduled preparatory friendlies with UEFA teams are incorporated.

All match-results in each simulation are based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

Previous simulation results can be found here.

First the group stage of the EUROs. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Italy	66,94	22,21	7,83	3,02
Switzerland	15,36	32,85	29,60	22,19
Wales	11,48	24,35	31,80	32,37
Turkey	6,22	20,59	30,77	42,42
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denmark	54,12	33,39	9,70	2,79
Belgium	38,54	41,45	16,63	3,38
Russia	5,77	18,73	41,91	33,59
Finland	1,57	6,43	31,76	60,24
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Netherlands	77,96	15,60	5,17	1,27
Ukraine	12,99	45,76	29,50	11,75
Austria	7,26	27,94	44,50	20,30
North Macedonia	1,79	10,70	20,83	66,68
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
England	71,31	21,05	5,96	1,68
Croatia	13,73	28,26	29,46	28,55
Scotland	6,93	28,15	29,81	35,11
Czech Republic	8,03	22,54	34,77	34,66
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Spain	82,84	13,11	3,28	0,77
Sweden	8,86	44,70	31,76	14,68
Poland	6,78	30,57	42,97	19,68
Slovakia	1,52	11,62	21,99	64,87
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Germany	36,15	29,97	22,12	11,76
France	30,38	29,39	26,01	14,22
Portugal	26,79	27,46	27,86	17,89
Hungary	6,68	13,18	24,01	56,13

Then the focus turns to the knock-out stage with the probabilities to qualify for each round. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in January.

From the quarter finals onwards also the percentages are presented (in square brackets) to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.

Round of 16

Spain	98,85				-0,18
Netherlands	98,04				-1,04
England	97,72				0,32
Italy	96,32				-0,53
Denmark	95,48				2,46
Belgium	94,65				-0,16
Germany	85,48				-1,31
France	80,96				-0,58
Ukraine	78,43				-1,18
Portugal	73,62				0,94
Sweden	73,10				4,99
Switzerland	66,63				-1,39
Poland	65,81				-1,16
Austria	64,87				-6,16
Croatia	63,91				-4,63
Wales	56,65				-3,59
Russia	53,60				-3,02
Scotland	52,50				0,47
Czech Republic	49,32				2,91
Turkey	47,46				6,72
Hungary	35,24				2,20
Slovakia	25,72				-2,73
North Macedonia	25,09				7,97
Finland	20,55				-1,32

Quarter finals

Spain	82,92		[83,88]		-1,05
Belgium	76,66		[80,99]		0,35
Italy	70,49		[73,18]		1,37
England	69,14		[70,75]		21,20
Denmark	62,47		[65,43]		8,58
Netherlands	59,07		[60,25]		-5,88
France	56,96		[70,36]		-7,88
Portugal	46,22		[62,78]		-6,31
Germany	44,38		[51,92]		-7,46
Sweden	36,46		[49,88]		6,23
Switzerland	27,88		[41,84]		-1,36
Poland	26,06		[39,60]		-0,73
Croatia	23,82		[37,27]		-3,54
Wales	20,01		[35,32]		-1,51
Ukraine	19,63		[25,03]		-1,11
Turkey	13,92		[29,33]		3,99
Czech Republic	13,54		[27,45]		0,75
Austria	11,09		[17,10]		-3,36
Hungary	9,96		[28,26]		0,12
Russia	9,51		[17,74]		-2,13
Scotland	9,06		[17,26]		-0,19
Slovakia	5,11		[19,87]		-0,65
Finland	3,46		[16,84]		-0,57
North Macedonia	2,18		[8,69]		1,14

Note the effect of a possible extra home match in London for England in the Round of 16.

Semi finals

Belgium	60,05		[78,33]		0,92
Spain	48,03		[57,92]		-0,77
France	43,75		[76,81]		-5,19
Italy	35,57		[50,46]		1,59
Denmark	33,47		[53,58]		9,56
Portugal	32,96		[71,31]		-2,82
England	29,29		[42,36]		10,12
Netherlands	28,03		[47,45]		-8,95
Germany	26,69		[60,14]		-5,56
Switzerland	11,08		[39,74]		0,90
Sweden	9,35		[25,64]		2,38
Wales	6,95		[34,73]		0,53
Croatia	6,16		[25,86]		-1,36
Poland	5,92		[22,72]		-0,19
Ukraine	5,31		[27,05]		-1,17
Turkey	4,38		[31,47]		1,79
Hungary	2,84		[28,51]		0,40
Russia	2,79		[29,34]		-0,11
Czech Republic	2,50		[18,46]		0,02
Austria	2,34		[21,10]		-1,81
Scotland	0,92		[10,15]		-0,07
Finland	0,74		[21,39]		-0,12
Slovakia	0,69		[13,50]		-0,18
North Macedonia	0,19		[8,72]		0,09

Final

Belgium	39,17		[65,23]		0,51
France	28,46		[65,05]		-3,96
Spain	27,49		[57,24]		-2,36
England	20,74		[70,81]		7,71
Portugal	18,23		[55,31]		-2,60
Italy	17,51		[49,23]		2,38
Denmark	14,44		[43,14]		6,16
Germany	9,77		[36,61]		-3,71
Netherlands	9,18		[32,75]		-4,78
Switzerland	3,33		[30,05]		0,54
Sweden	2,40		[25,67]		0,79
Wales	1,80		[25,90]		0,19
Croatia	1,70		[27,60]		-0,49
Poland	1,47		[24,83]		0,13
Ukraine	1,15		[21,66]		-0,49
Turkey	1,00		[22,83]		0,60
Hungary	0,63		[22,18]		0,08
Austria	0,51		[21,79]		-0,29
Czech Republic	0,39		[15,60]		-0,12
Russia	0,31		[11,11]		-0,17
Finland	0,12		[16,22]		-0,01
Scotland	0,11		[11,96]		-0,05
Slovakia	0,07		[10,14]		-0,07
North Macedonia	0,02		[10,53]		0,01

And the winner:

Belgium	25,60		[65,36]		0,24
France	17,14		[60,22]		-2,87
England	13,06		[62,97]		5,10
Spain	12,94		[47,07]		-1,28
Portugal	9,28		[50,91]		-1,33
Italy	7,28		[41,58]		0,91
Denmark	4,92		[34,07]		2,56
Netherlands	3,13		[34,10]		-2,34
Germany	3,08		[31,53]		-1,52
Switzerland	0,82		[24,62]		0,14
Sweden	0,59		[24,58]		0,22
Wales	0,44		[24,44]		0,09
Croatia	0,44		[25,88]		-0,17
Poland	0,34		[23,13]		0,09
Turkey	0,26		[26,00]		0,20
Ukraine	0,26		[22,61]		-0,07
Czech Republic	0,13		[33,33]		0,04
Hungary	0,11		[17,46]		0,01
Russia	0,10		[32,26]		0,07
Austria	0,04		[7,84]		-0,08
Finland	0,02		[16,67]		0,02
Scotland	0,02		[18,18]		-0,02
Slovakia	0,00		[0,00]		-0,01
North Macedonia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00

Then the chances of the 4 group winners of groups B, C, E and F to meet a group third from the other groups in the round of 16 (the row sums to 100%):

	A3	B3	C3	D3	E3	F3
B1	18,59	0	0	12,28	32,85	36,28
C1	0	0	0	30,35	30,63	39,02
E1	12,28	30,84	36,06	20,82	0	0
F1	36,19	33,44	30,37	0	0	0

And presented the other way round, so the chances of the group thirds to meet one of the 4 group winners of groups B, C, E and F in the round of 16 (the row sums to 100%):

	B1	C1	E1	F1
A3	27,72	0	18,31	53,97
B3	0	0	47,98	52,02
C3	0	0	54,28	45,72
D3	19,35	47,83	32,81	0
E3	51,75	48,25	0	0
F3	48,18	51,82	0	0

Then the UEFA Nations League Final Four, played in October in Italy. In the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in January:

to win a semi-final
Italy	70,01				6,48
Belgium	55,65				0,41
France	44,35				-0,41
Spain	29,99				-6,48
to win the UNL
Italy	38,44				5,77
Belgium	28,95				-0,55
France	20,47				-2,28
Spain	12,14				-2,94

Then qualification for the World Cup. First the group stage. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Portugal	86,69	13,03	0,27	0,01	0,00
Serbia	13,23	83,48	3,00	0,29	0,00
Republic of Ireland	0,06	1,62	47,34	35,08	15,90
Luxembourg	0,02	1,73	36,86	40,36	21,03
Azerbaijan	0,00	0,14	12,53	24,26	63,07
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Spain	68,73	29,44	1,76	0,07	0,00
Sweden	29,99	59,11	9,78	1,10	0,02
Greece	1,24	9,76	52,67	26,17	10,16
Georgia	0,01	1,05	21,56	44,78	32,60
Kosovo	0,03	0,64	14,23	27,88	57,22
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Italy	74,97	24,97	0,06	0,00	0,00
Switzerland	24,96	71,84	3,03	0,16	0,01
Northern Ireland	0,07	2,80	50,17	33,27	13,69
Bulgaria	0,00	0,19	33,75	44,29	21,77
Lithuania	0,00	0,20	12,99	22,28	64,53
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
France	94,43	4,92	0,63	0,02	0,00
Ukraine	2,94	50,37	28,46	16,51	1,72
Finland	2,33	27,29	38,32	27,62	4,44
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,30	16,73	29,34	44,44	9,19
Kazakhstan	0,00	0,69	3,25	11,41	84,65
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Belgium	88,00	10,94	1,05	0,01	0,00
Wales	10,32	55,17	30,73	3,62	0,16
Czech Republic	1,63	31,91	58,57	7,67	0,22
Belarus	0,05	1,97	9,35	78,40	10,23
Estonia	0,00	0,01	0,30	10,30	89,39
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Denmark	96,67	2,83	0,48	0,02	0,00	0,00
Austria	1,96	55,08	27,96	14,68	0,32	0,00
Scotland	1,24	28,79	45,76	23,53	0,64	0,04
Israel	0,13	13,26	25,34	57,75	3,35	0,17
Faroe Islands	0,00	0,04	0,40	3,48	71,05	25,03
Moldova	0,00	0,00	0,06	0,54	24,64	74,76
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Netherlands	57,27	28,89	12,47	1,36	0,01	0,00
Turkey	33,59	47,39	16,72	2,27	0,03	0,00
Norway	8,95	22,20	62,59	6,05	0,21	0,00
Montenegro	0,19	1,51	8,01	85,27	5,00	0,02
Latvia	0,00	0,01	0,21	4,93	80,43	14,42
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,12	14,32	85,56
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Croatia	52,68	27,59	13,73	5,09	0,89	0,02
Russia	35,85	37,08	18,56	6,74	1,73	0,04
Slovakia	7,50	17,76	30,87	33,86	9,55	0,46
Slovenia	3,82	16,37	32,65	36,36	9,99	0,81
Cyprus	0,15	1,17	3,94	16,03	64,21	14,50
Malta	0,00	0,03	0,25	1,92	13,63	84,17
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
England	85,37	11,52	3,06	0,05	0,00	0,00
Poland	7,58	50,27	34,05	8,09	0,01	0,00
Hungary	6,86	32,32	46,72	14,10	0,00	0,00
Albania	0,19	5,89	16,17	77,72	0,03	0,00
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,04	82,48	17,48
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	17,48	82,52
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Germany	81,78	13,64	3,46	0,93	0,19	0,00
Armenia	7,40	27,17	27,46	25,93	12,04	0,00
North Macedonia	7,27	31,28	21,89	22,03	17,51	0,02
Romania	1,71	15,28	27,71	27,60	27,62	0,08
Iceland	1,84	12,63	19,48	23,50	42,49	0,06
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,15	99,84

Then the play-offs. Teams can qualify for the play-offs as group runner-up (column 'nr2') or as one of the two best UNL group winners not already qualified (column 'via UNL'). In column 'PO' you see the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. 

The 6 best runners-up are seeded in the draw for the 6 semi-finals in the 3 paths. In columns 'seeded' and 'unseeded' you will find the respective probabilities and finally in column '%seeded' the chance to be seeded, given the team participates in the play-offs.

team	PO	nr2	via UNL	seeded	unseeded	%seeded
Austria	97,60	55,08	42,52	48,68	48,92	49,88
Czech Republic	96,89	31,91	64,98	1,67	95,22	1,72
Wales	89,68	55,17	34,51	14,42	75,26	16,08
Serbia	83,48	83,48	0	30,84	52,64	36,94
Switzerland	71,84	71,84	0	38,11	33,73	53,05
Hungary	65,79	32,32	33,47	31,81	33,98	48,35
Sweden	59,11	59,11	0	13,48	45,63	22,80
Ukraine	50,37	50,37	0	8,17	42,20	16,22
Poland	50,27	50,27	0	49,79	0,48	99,05
Turkey	47,39	47,39	0	47,09	0,30	99,37
Russia	37,08	37,08	0	31,03	6,05	83,68
Slovenia	33,45	16,37	17,08	12,73	20,72	38,06
North Macedonia	31,28	31,28	0	26,32	4,96	84,14
Spain	31,27	29,44	1,83	9,95	21,32	31,82
Netherlands	28,89	28,89	0	28,52	0,37	98,72
Scotland	28,79	28,79	0	23,73	5,06	82,42
Croatia	27,59	27,59	0	23,93	3,66	86,73
Finland	27,29	27,29	0	0,79	26,50	2,89
Armenia	27,17	27,17	0	22,61	4,56	83,22
Italy	24,99	24,97	0,02	16,75	8,24	67,03
Norway	22,20	22,20	0	21,74	0,46	97,93
Slovakia	17,76	17,76	0	17,00	0,76	95,72
Bosnia-Herzegovina	16,73	16,73	0	0,10	16,63	0,60
Romania	15,28	15,28	0	11,68	3,60	76,44
Germany	13,64	13,64	0	13,02	0,62	95,45
Israel	13,26	13,26	0	9,67	3,59	72,93
Portugal	13,03	13,03	0	7,25	5,78	55,64
Iceland	12,63	12,63	0	8,96	3,67	70,94
Belgium	12,00	10,94	1,06	5,84	6,16	48,67
England	11,52	11,52	0	11,52	0,00	100,00
Greece	9,76	9,76	0	1,52	8,24	15,57
Albania	6,02	5,89	0,13	5,50	0,52	91,36
Montenegro	5,68	1,51	4,17	1,37	4,31	24,12
France	5,15	4,92	0,23	0,38	4,77	7,38
Denmark	2,83	2,83	0	2,82	0,01	99,65
Northern Ireland	2,80	2,80	0	0,29	2,51	10,36
Belarus	1,97	1,97	0	0,04	1,93	2,03
Luxembourg	1,73	1,73	0	0,05	1,68	2,89
Republic of Ireland	1,62	1,62	0	0,13	1,49	8,02
Cyprus	1,17	1,17	0	0,64	0,53	54,70
Georgia	1,05	1,05	0	0	1,05	0
Kazakhstan	0,69	0,69	0	0	0,69	0
Kosovo	0,64	0,64	0	0,01	0,63	1,56
Lithuania	0,20	0,20	0	0	0,20	0
Bulgaria	0,19	0,19	0	0	0,19	0
Azerbaijan	0,14	0,14	0	0	0,14	0
Faroe Islands	0,04	0,04	0	0,03	0,01	75,00
Malta	0,03	0,03	0	0,02	0,01	66,67
Latvia	0,01	0,01	0	0	0,01	0
Estonia	0,01	0,01	0	0	0,01	0
Moldova	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0	0	0
Andorra	0	0	0	0	0	0
San Marino	0	0	0	0	0	0
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0	0	0

The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for the play-offs. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in January.

Austria	44,59		[45,69]		5,75
Switzerland	44,39		[61,79]		11,84
Poland	38,87		[77,32]		7,32
Serbia	37,06		[44,39]		12,10
Wales	37,02		[41,28]		1,63
Turkey	35,14		[74,15]		8,45
Hungary	29,83		[45,34]		1,17
Sweden	25,76		[43,58]		-1,77
Netherlands	24,98		[86,47]		10,24
Czech Republic	24,59		[25,38]		-0,89
Ukraine	22,69		[45,05]		-2,07
Spain	21,72		[69,46]		11,19
Russia	21,19		[57,15]		-1,64
Italy	19,57		[78,31]		0,65
Croatia	18,90		[68,50]		-0,57
Norway	15,95		[71,85]		-12,81
Scotland	15,49		[53,80]		2,74
North Macedonia	12,85		[41,08]		6,60
Germany	10,62		[77,86]		1,43
Slovakia	10,00		[56,31]		-2,55
England	9,99		[86,72]		-10,32
Belgium	9,80		[81,67]		-0,79
Portugal	9,47		[72,68]		-0,60
Armenia	9,44		[34,74]		5,99
Slovenia	8,82		[26,37]		-1,73
Romania	7,30		[47,77]		-11,82
Finland	6,88		[25,21]		0,34
Israel	5,36		[40,42]		-0,06
Iceland	5,24		[41,49]		-7,66
France	3,42		[66,41]		-6,32
Bosnia-Herzegovina	2,94		[17,57]		0,81
Albania	2,63		[43,69]		0,17
Greece	2,57		[26,33]		-0,60
Denmark	2,38		[84,10]		-16,36
Montenegro	1,02		[17,96]		-1,35
Northern Ireland	0,56		[20,00]		-1,06
Republic of Ireland	0,27		[16,67]		-5,89
Belarus	0,24		[12,18]		-0,05
Cyprus	0,19		[16,24]		0,08
Georgia	0,09		[8,57]		-0,46
Luxembourg	0,06		[3,47]		-0,01
Kosovo	0,04		[6,25]		-0,49
Kazakhstan	0,04		[5,80]		0,02
Bulgaria	0,02		[10,53]		-0,52
Azerbaijan	0,01		[7,14]		-0,09
Lithuania	0,01		[5,00]		-0,01
Latvia	0,00		[0,00]		-0,01
Estonia	0,00		[0,00]		-0,02

The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in January.

Switzerland	26,55		[59,81]		7,50
Wales	20,84		[56,29]		1,11
Poland	19,75		[50,81]		4,05
Austria	18,74		[42,03]		1,20
Serbia	17,53		[47,30]		5,14
Turkey	16,52		[47,01]		4,50
Netherlands	16,47		[65,93]		6,87
Spain	15,83		[72,88]		8,21
Italy	14,15		[72,30]		0,58
Sweden	13,98		[54,27]		-0,70
Hungary	12,91		[43,28]		0,23
Ukraine	12,43		[54,78]		-1,69
Czech Republic	11,36		[46,20]		-0,32
Croatia	9,04		[47,83]		-0,91
Russia	8,27		[39,03]		-1,23
Belgium	7,52		[76,73]		-1,03
Norway	6,78		[42,51]		-5,85
Portugal	6,57		[69,38]		-0,61
England	6,34		[63,46]		-6,56
Germany	6,29		[59,23]		0,98
Scotland	5,54		[35,77]		0,95
Slovakia	3,41		[34,10]		-0,75
North Macedonia	3,22		[25,06]		1,49
Finland	2,79		[40,55]		-0,10
Slovenia	2,64		[29,93]		-0,34
France	2,35		[68,71]		-5,02
Armenia	2,27		[24,05]		1,56
Romania	2,23		[30,55]		-4,20
Iceland	1,57		[29,96]		-2,16
Israel	1,50		[27,99]		-0,06
Denmark	1,37		[57,56]		-9,33
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,09		[37,07]		0,27
Greece	0,86		[33,46]		-0,30
Albania	0,69		[26,24]		0,02
Montenegro	0,20		[19,61]		-0,38
Northern Ireland	0,18		[32,14]		-0,38
Republic of Ireland	0,10		[37,04]		-2,23
Belarus	0,06		[25,00]		-0,04
Georgia	0,03		[33,33]		-0,13
Cyprus	0,02		[10,53]		0,00
Lithuania	0,01		[100,00]		0,01
Bulgaria	0,00		[0,00]		-0,22
Azerbaijan	0,00		[0,00]		-0,01
Luxembourg	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Kosovo	0,00		[0,00]		-0,12
Estonia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Kazakhstan	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Latvia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00

Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in January.

team	nr1	PO	Qtot
Denmark	96,67	1,37	98,04		18,48
France	94,43	2,35	96,78		4,35
Belgium	88,00	7,52	95,52		0,59
Portugal	86,69	6,57	93,26		2,17
England	85,37	6,34	91,71		12,86
Italy	74,97	14,15	89,12		4,05
Germany	81,78	6,29	88,07		-2,42
Spain	68,73	15,83	84,56		-8,01
Netherlands	57,27	16,47	73,74		-12,93
Croatia	52,68	9,04	61,72		-5,45
Switzerland	24,96	26,55	51,51		5,26
Turkey	33,59	16,52	50,11		27,30
Russia	35,85	8,27	44,12		9,87
Sweden	29,99	13,98	43,97		15,74
Wales	10,32	20,84	31,16		2,46
Serbia	13,23	17,53	30,76		4,98
Poland	7,58	19,75	27,33		-9,10
Austria	1,96	18,74	20,70		-18,62
Hungary	6,86	12,91	19,77		-5,09
Norway	8,95	6,78	15,73		-8,53
Ukraine	2,94	12,43	15,37		-10,15
Czech Republic	1,63	11,36	12,99		-3,24
Slovakia	7,50	3,41	10,91		-4,25
North Macedonia	7,27	3,22	10,49		6,82
Armenia	7,40	2,27	9,67		7,97
Scotland	1,24	5,54	6,78		-4,46
Slovenia	3,82	2,64	6,46		-3,48
Finland	2,33	2,79	5,12		-0,46
Romania	1,71	2,23	3,94		-9,75
Iceland	1,84	1,57	3,41		-4,95
Greece	1,24	0,86	2,10		-0,33
Israel	0,13	1,50	1,63		-2,63
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,30	1,09	1,39		-0,28
Albania	0,19	0,69	0,88		-0,93
Montenegro	0,19	0,20	0,39		-0,70
Northern Ireland	0,07	0,18	0,25		-1,23
Cyprus	0,15	0,02	0,17		0,08
Republic of Ireland	0,06	0,10	0,16		-4,85
Belarus	0,05	0,06	0,11		-0,09
Georgia	0,01	0,03	0,04		-0,24
Kosovo	0,03	0,00	0,03		-0,20
Luxembourg	0,02	0,00	0,02		0,02
Lithuania	0,00	0,01	0,01		-0,04
Bulgaria	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,55
Azerbaijan	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,03
Faroe Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,01
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Estonia	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Kazakhstan	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Latvia	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Malta	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Moldova	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00

Turkey, Denmark and Sweden improved their qualification chances the most. England also improved significantly but that's mostly due to a better performance in the EURO, due to the possibility of an extra  knock-out match in Wembley.

Austria, the Netherlands and Ukraine had a bad start, compared to the expectations in  January.

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.