FIFA will publish the August ranking on Thursday August 12th. This final preview contains 350 matches, out of 369 matches played since May 24th.
Only the Gold Cup final between USA and Mexico to be played yet for this ranking.
Points for both teams will be:
USA |
MEX |
||||
win USA |
1647,76 |
(10th) |
1658,29 |
(9th) |
|
PSO-win USA |
1637,76 |
(11th) |
1658,29 |
(9th) |
|
PSO-win MEX |
1627,76 |
(13th) |
1667,07 |
(8th) |
|
win MEX |
1626,54 |
(13th) |
1677,07 |
(8th) |
Qatar performed better than expected as invitee in the Gold Cup and are in general on the rise. So no surprise to see they record a new highest spot in the FIFA ranking:
Qatar (42 - 51 in August 1993)
One team drops to their lowest rank again:
pos Aug. |
team |
pts Aug. |
+/- pos |
+/- pts |
1 |
Belgium |
1822,37 |
0 |
38,99 |
2 |
Brazil |
1797,67 |
1 |
55,02 |
3 |
France |
1761,80 |
-1 |
4,50 |
4 |
England |
1752,83 |
0 |
66,05 |
5 |
Italy |
1744,67 |
2 |
102,61 |
6 |
Argentina |
1714,43 |
2 |
72,48 |
7 |
Spain |
1680,43 |
-1 |
32,30 |
8 |
Portugal |
1662,37 |
-3 |
-3,75 |
9 |
Mexico |
1658,29 |
2 |
28,73 |
10 |
Denmark |
1642,28 |
0 |
10,73 |
11 |
Netherlands |
1637,48 |
5 |
39,44 |
12 |
Uruguay |
1634,63 |
-3 |
-4,45 |
13 |
USA |
1626,54 |
7 |
71,12 |
14 |
Switzerland |
1621,37 |
-1 |
15,16 |
15 |
Colombia |
1617,67 |
0 |
17,01 |
16 |
Germany |
1613,32 |
-4 |
4,20 |
17 |
Sweden |
1606,79 |
1 |
36,98 |
18 |
Croatia |
1594,36 |
-4 |
-11,39 |
19 |
Wales |
1567,29 |
-2 |
-3,07 |
20 |
Chile |
1557,81 |
-1 |
-11,71 |
21 |
Senegal |
1545,36 |
1 |
2,91 |
22 |
Peru |
1543,16 |
5 |
31,28 |
23 |
Austria |
1535,12 |
0 |
11,70 |
24 |
Japan |
1529,45 |
4 |
20,11 |
25 |
Ukraine |
1522,70 |
-1 |
8,06 |
26 |
Iran |
1522,04 |
5 |
22,52 |
27 |
Poland |
1516,27 |
-6 |
-33,60 |
28 |
Tunisia |
1515,30 |
-2 |
2,42 |
29 |
Serbia |
1507,19 |
-4 |
-5,71 |
30 |
Algeria |
1499,51 |
3 |
12,82 |
31 |
Czech Republic |
1492,65 |
9 |
33,84 |
32 |
Morocco |
1487,89 |
2 |
8,57 |
33 |
Paraguay |
1483,49 |
2 |
7,47 |
34 |
Nigeria |
1478,91 |
-2 |
-8,25 |
35 |
Australia |
1477,21 |
6 |
19,72 |
36 |
Korea Republic |
1474,96 |
3 |
14,71 |
37 |
Hungary |
1474,39 |
0 |
5,64 |
38 |
Slovakia |
1467,39 |
-2 |
-7,85 |
39 |
Turkey |
1463,91 |
-10 |
-41,14 |
40 |
Venezuela |
1463,30 |
-10 |
-37,41 |
41 |
Russia |
1462,24 |
-3 |
-0,41 |
42 |
Qatar |
1455,27 |
16 |
57,35 |
43 |
Norway |
1450,12 |
-1 |
-2,22 |
44 |
Costa Rica |
1449,79 |
6 |
26,39 |
45 |
Romania |
1439,70 |
-2 |
-9,53 |
46 |
Egypt |
1432,63 |
0 |
0,00 |
47 |
Republic of Ireland |
1429,44 |
0 |
2,22 |
48 |
Greece |
1427,04 |
3 |
8,34 |
49 |
Scotland |
1424,77 |
-5 |
-16,66 |
50 |
Jamaica |
1423,06 |
-5 |
-9,59 |
51 |
Northern Ireland |
1422,29 |
-3 |
-3,45 |
52 |
Ghana |
1420,61 |
-3 |
-4,65 |
53 |
Iceland |
1418,48 |
-1 |
2,49 |
54 |
Cameroon |
1411,33 |
1 |
6,46 |
55 |
Ecuador |
1405,26 |
-2 |
-7,75 |
56 |
Finland |
1403,96 |
-2 |
-6,86 |
57 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
1402,90 |
2 |
5,13 |
58 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1401,57 |
-3 |
-3,30 |
59 |
Canada |
1399,35 |
11 |
58,79 |
60 |
Mali |
1392,64 |
-3 |
-8,30 |
61 |
Saudi Arabia |
1386,03 |
4 |
21,64 |
62 |
Burkina Faso |
1383,86 |
-2 |
-9,04 |
63 |
Honduras |
1377,79 |
4 |
16,58 |
64 |
El Salvador |
1375,43 |
5 |
34,19 |
65 |
Congo DR |
1373,16 |
-4 |
-3,49 |
66 |
Slovenia |
1371,25 |
-3 |
1,37 |
67 |
Montenegro |
1363,03 |
-3 |
-5,46 |
68 |
United Arab Emirates |
1362,23 |
5 |
32,07 |
69 |
Albania |
1359,83 |
-3 |
-2,26 |
70 |
Iraq |
1354,51 |
-2 |
1,69 |
71 |
China PR |
1352,68 |
6 |
29,72 |
72 |
North Macedonia |
1342,92 |
-10 |
-31,81 |
73 |
South Africa |
1337,74 |
2 |
12,10 |
74 |
Panama |
1334,85 |
4 |
12,88 |
75 |
Bulgaria |
1334,83 |
-4 |
-4,20 |
76 |
Guinea |
1333,15 |
-4 |
1,36 |
77 |
Cape Verde Islands |
1327,11 |
-4 |
-3,05 |
78 |
Curacao |
1310,40 |
-2 |
-12,66 |
79 |
Oman |
1306,84 |
1 |
5,33 |
80 |
Syria |
1302,75 |
-1 |
-1,37 |
81 |
Israel |
1287,26 |
4 |
3,90 |
82 |
Bolivia |
1285,94 |
-1 |
-14,17 |
83 |
Uzbekistan |
1284,42 |
3 |
3,43 |
84 |
Uganda |
1282,14 |
0 |
-4,62 |
85 |
Gabon |
1278,10 |
3 |
0,00 |
86 |
Benin |
1277,39 |
-4 |
-15,71 |
87 |
Armenia |
1273,67 |
3 |
0,39 |
88 |
Belarus |
1270,75 |
1 |
-6,04 |
89 |
Zambia |
1270,15 |
-2 |
-10,00 |
90 |
Haiti |
1268,38 |
-7 |
-22,24 |
91 |
Georgia |
1264,06 |
0 |
4,55 |
92 |
Vietnam |
1260,81 |
0 |
2,75 |
93 |
Congo |
1259,97 |
1 |
4,09 |
94 |
Bahrain |
1251,29 |
4 |
11,19 |
95 |
Jordan |
1243,97 |
0 |
-7,66 |
96 |
Luxembourg |
1238,59 |
0 |
-6,27 |
97 |
Madagascar |
1238,24 |
3 |
0,00 |
98 |
Lebanon |
1237,98 |
-5 |
-18,10 |
99 |
Cyprus |
1235,30 |
-2 |
-5,48 |
100 |
Mauritania |
1227,14 |
1 |
2,38 |
101 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1223,40 |
-2 |
-16,68 |
102 |
Palestine |
1216,25 |
2 |
19,45 |
103 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
1207,94 |
0 |
6,61 |
104 |
Kenya |
1205,26 |
-2 |
0,00 |
105 |
India |
1180,25 |
0 |
-4,11 |
106 |
Sierra Leone |
1178,17 |
8 |
15,56 |
107 |
Estonia |
1177,36 |
9 |
15,78 |
108 |
Namibia |
1172,35 |
3 |
3,91 |
109 |
Zimbabwe |
1171,86 |
-2 |
-3,64 |
110 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1171,19 |
-2 |
0,00 |
111 |
Korea DPR |
1169,96 |
-2 |
0,00 |
112 |
Azerbaijan |
1166,44 |
-2 |
-2,09 |
113 |
Faroe Islands |
1165,43 |
0 |
-0,02 |
114 |
Mozambique |
1163,44 |
3 |
1,89 |
115 |
Tajikistan |
1157,76 |
6 |
6,66 |
116 |
Kosovo |
1157,64 |
4 |
5,91 |
117 |
Sudan |
1153,93 |
6 |
4,79 |
118 |
Malawi |
1153,48 |
-3 |
-8,91 |
119 |
Niger |
1152,28 |
-7 |
-13,63 |
120 |
New Zealand |
1149,43 |
2 |
0,00 |
121 |
Libya |
1147,70 |
-2 |
-8,56 |
122 |
Central African Republic |
1147,09 |
-4 |
-10,55 |
123 |
Thailand |
1146,80 |
-17 |
-31,27 |
124 |
Kazakhstan |
1144,41 |
0 |
-2,94 |
125 |
Guatemala |
1139,12 |
2 |
9,82 |
126 |
Angola |
1135,88 |
0 |
0,00 |
127 |
Rwanda |
1134,24 |
2 |
10,55 |
128 |
Philippines |
1131,93 |
-3 |
-4,01 |
129 |
Antigua and Barbuda |
1131,08 |
-1 |
2,06 |
130 |
Turkmenistan |
1117,60 |
0 |
11,09 |
131 |
Togo |
1105,62 |
2 |
1,48 |
132 |
Equatorial Guinea |
1105,20 |
0 |
0,00 |
133 |
Comoros |
1104,45 |
-2 |
-1,99 |
134 |
Tanzania |
1093,76 |
3 |
5,71 |
135 |
Lithuania |
1092,18 |
-1 |
-10,66 |
136 |
Latvia |
1081,47 |
2 |
-0,19 |
137 |
Ethiopia |
1079,41 |
3 |
0,00 |
138 |
St. Kitts and Nevis |
1077,76 |
-3 |
-13,36 |
139 |
Suriname |
1077,57 |
-3 |
-11,86 |
140 |
Burundi |
1075,64 |
2 |
0,00 |
141 |
Solomon Islands |
1072,78 |
2 |
0,00 |
142 |
Kuwait |
1067,44 |
6 |
11,14 |
143 |
Lesotho |
1066,79 |
3 |
-3,12 |
144 |
Nicaragua |
1063,60 |
3 |
3,09 |
145 |
Myanmar |
1057,44 |
-6 |
-23,82 |
146 |
Hong Kong |
1053,39 |
-2 |
-18,61 |
147 |
Botswana |
1051,58 |
3 |
-0,24 |
148 |
Gambia |
1051,13 |
4 |
7,68 |
149 |
Liberia |
1049,21 |
2 |
1,92 |
150 |
Eswatini |
1047,90 |
4 |
8,66 |
151 |
Afghanistan |
1047,17 |
-2 |
-5,07 |
152 |
Chinese Taipei |
1046,34 |
-11 |
-32,14 |
153 |
Yemen |
1046,26 |
-8 |
-24,28 |
154 |
Malaysia |
1040,77 |
-1 |
0,75 |
155 |
New Caledonia |
1035,12 |
2 |
0,00 |
156 |
Andorra |
1031,64 |
2 |
-3,26 |
157 |
Dominican Republic |
1029,42 |
-1 |
-6,80 |
158 |
Maldives |
1028,30 |
-3 |
-10,01 |
159 |
Tahiti |
1014,27 |
2 |
0,00 |
160 |
Singapore |
1000,50 |
-1 |
-19,77 |
161 |
Fiji |
996,27 |
2 |
0,00 |
162 |
Barbados |
995,94 |
0 |
-15,01 |
163 |
Vanuatu |
995,62 |
1 |
0,00 |
164 |
Papua New Guinea |
990,55 |
2 |
0,00 |
165 |
South Sudan |
984,19 |
4 |
0,00 |
166 |
Bermuda |
982,43 |
2 |
-5,35 |
167 |
Grenada |
974,03 |
-7 |
-43,54 |
168 |
Nepal |
972,19 |
3 |
4,31 |
169 |
Belize |
967,42 |
1 |
-10,53 |
170 |
Mauritius |
964,94 |
2 |
0,00 |
171 |
Puerto Rico |
962,77 |
7 |
23,91 |
172 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
960,71 |
-5 |
-28,61 |
173 |
Guyana |
958,87 |
-8 |
-31,78 |
174 |
Indonesia |
955,05 |
-1 |
-9,02 |
175 |
Moldova |
954,15 |
2 |
5,99 |
176 |
St. Lucia |
953,45 |
0 |
0,00 |
177 |
Malta |
952,00 |
-2 |
-3,89 |
178 |
Montserrat |
950,71 |
2 |
17,07 |
179 |
Cambodia |
950,26 |
-5 |
-13,53 |
180 |
Cuba |
946,86 |
1 |
23,83 |
181 |
Chad |
935,00 |
-2 |
0,00 |
182 |
Djibouti |
922,37 |
1 |
3,46 |
183 |
Macau |
922,10 |
-1 |
0,00 |
184 |
Dominica |
916,72 |
4 |
12,46 |
185 |
Mongolia |
916,68 |
7 |
19,71 |
186 |
Laos |
912,07 |
-1 |
0,00 |
187 |
Bhutan |
910,96 |
0 |
0,00 |
188 |
Bangladesh |
909,18 |
-4 |
-8,20 |
189 |
Liechtenstein |
907,66 |
-3 |
-3,39 |
190 |
Brunei Darussalam |
903,90 |
-1 |
0,00 |
191 |
Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe |
903,31 |
-1 |
0,00 |
192 |
American Samoa |
900,27 |
-1 |
0,00 |
193 |
Samoa |
894,26 |
0 |
0,00 |
194 |
Gibraltar |
880,27 |
1 |
0,11 |
195 |
Timor-Leste |
879,43 |
1 |
0,00 |
196 |
Somalia |
873,71 |
1 |
-5,42 |
197 |
Cayman Islands |
873,64 |
-3 |
-10,80 |
198 |
Pakistan |
866,81 |
1 |
0,00 |
199 |
Seychelles |
865,69 |
1 |
0,00 |
200 |
Tonga |
861,81 |
2 |
0,00 |
201 |
Aruba |
859,97 |
4 |
9,87 |
202 |
Bahamas |
858,50 |
-1 |
-3,34 |
203 |
Guam |
858,49 |
-5 |
-14,34 |
204 |
Eritrea |
855,56 |
-1 |
0,00 |
205 |
Sri Lanka |
846,54 |
-1 |
-6,53 |
206 |
Turks and Caicos Islands |
839,84 |
0 |
-3,81 |
207 |
US Virgin Islands |
816,13 |
0 |
-13,00 |
208 |
British Virgin Islands |
812,94 |
0 |
-13,33 |
209 |
San Marino |
802,43 |
1 |
-2,28 |
210 |
Anguilla |
792,34 |
-1 |
-13,08 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Ed,
ReplyDeleteI've always trusted your data since even you've proved FIFA wrong on occasions. Any idea why the person who runs this site (which I've never heard of before it popped up on reddit today) has Mexico and the US flipped?
https://football-ranking.com/
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI've also seen that. The difference is that they're taking points off Mexico for losing the Nations League final, when in theory, they shouldn't because defeats in KO stages don't make you lose points.
DeleteRodrigo said it. Such a shame when people build a nice site about not even a very complicated issue, and mess it up like this.
DeleteAccording to their graphic on that page, it doesn't seem like they are deducting points during the playoff stages
DeleteThanks. I wasn't sure if Nations Leagues had that ruled applied about the knockout stages or if it was just confederation/WC finals.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, this rule is also applied to Nations league finals. The UNL Finals in 2019 showed that already.
ReplyDeleteThat site has wrong calculation of coeffs. It should be done recursively just like on Ed springsheets. Instead they add/subtract points from previous piblished rankings.
ReplyDeleteHave you been able to figure out the Estonia/Lithuania/Latvia rankings from FIFA? It doesn't work for me when I remove the Baltic Cup nor if I make it worth 5 or 10 points. Confused.
ReplyDeleteI got the correct points after excluding Lithuania vs Estonia, and set the I-factor for Estonia vs Latvia to 5
DeleteThe fun part of having over 300 matches. We need to figure out what and how FIFA counted things.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI'm down to the last few differences. What seems to be the case is that we have a split FIFA calendar between confederations (https://kassiesa.net/uefa/files/2018-24-fifa-calendar.pdf). UEFA/CONMEBOL use the standard one from 31 May to 8 June, and the rest until 15 June. I had to write a new scraper for automating the calculation given the new website, and I'm having to model the situation where a friendly match either has an importance of 5 or 10 depending whether or not a team or teams from the confederation with the extended calendar plays in it. So Kosovo v Gambia has an importance of 5, but Japan v Serbia has an importance seemingly of 10 for both. Maybe this is because of where the match was played, the first match in UEFA, the second in AFC. I can't explain it otherwise. I can confirm that it looks like Lithuania v Estonia was removed from the list of A internationals, and then for Estonia v Latvia an importance of 5 is used because it was played two days after the match calendar for UEFA "expired".
ReplyDeleteCorrection: https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/88176dce3738a428/original/cd3qpcttmbbjowbso2tz-pdf.pdf
DeleteI can get it down to two unexplainable differences:
ReplyDelete- Bahamas 858.506 (me) against 858 (FIFA)
- Malawi 1153.496 (me) against 1154 (FIFA)
This is 348 matches:
100 Friendlies
2 Baltic Cup
1 ANC Qualifier
51 Euro 2020
28 Copa America
25 Gold Cup
5 Gold Cup Qualifiers
4 CCC Nations League Finals
101 World Cup Qualifiers
24 COSAFA Cup
7 Arab Cup
Excluded:
2021-05-25 Indonesia 2-3 Afghanistan
2021-05-25 Oman 1-0 Thailand
2021-05-29 Singapore 1-1 Afghanistan
2021-06-01 Lithunia 0-1 Estonia (Baltic Cup)
2021-06-08 Kosovo 1-2 Guinea
2021-06-08 Cameroon 0-0 Nigeria
2021-06-09 Niger 0-1 Congo
2021-06-11 Sudan 3-2 Zambia
Included:
2021-06-05 Gambia 2-0 Niger
2021-06-11 Kosovo 1-0 Gambia
2021-07-03 Mexico 4-0 Nigeria
Questionable (one of these is probably included):
2021-07-03 Lesotho 0-0 Namibia
2021-07-04 Botswana 1-1 Namibia
Anyone else have these tiny discrepancies for Malawi and Bermuda???
DeleteI've been playing around with the FIFA rankings and their formula. Most of you probably know there is a factor of 600 applied in the Win Expectancy Calculation. Basically a team that is 600 points ahead of it's opponent will have a win exp. of 90.9%. I was curious of that number matched up well to the fairly large set of results we've had since June 2018.
ReplyDeleteAnd well the short answer is no it doesn't. Using a factor of 400 (which is what the Elo Football Rankings use as a base factor) matches up with the results much better. In particular, using the 600 factor results in favorites winning too much and underdogs losing too much. This results in the favorites gaining more points then they should.
Here's a quick summary of what happens when you recalculate all the matches since the new formula started using 400 as the factor.
https://i.imgur.com/Oj7an7i.png
Hi Ed, I'm wondering if you will update the link of overall "Points Calculation" matches and rankings. It seems to me that last update was since May,21 while huge updates after while. Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteHey Tarek (and everybody else),
ReplyDeleteI will of course, but at the moment I'm enjoying my holiday. It will be next week at the earliest that I will be able to thoroughly look at the August ranking in comparison with my calculations and also update the points calculation sheet afterwards.
I wish you nice holidays Ed... Enjoy it.
DeleteGood news, the decimals are coming back in FIFA website
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThat's a huge help, but a lot of rounding errors now. At least the problems with Malawi and Bahamas (not Bermuda) are gone, which is strange because that shouldn't make a difference, unless FIFA use some strange rounding, or fewer decimals. But at least this clears up the problem regarding the two Namibian matches before the COSAFA Cup. Neither their match against Lesotho nor Botswana are included. Instead, the match between Jordan and and Vietnam on 31 May is included.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWell, I'm back from holiday and have finally found the time to research the published August ranking.
ReplyDeleteAlthough FIFA initially published only the integer points, after a few days the pleasant surprise came that they indeed switched to publishing the first two decimals again. Great !
In comparison with my final preview FIFA included the following matches that I excluded:
2021-06-02 Mozambique - Lesotho (5:0), friendly in Maputo (MOZ)
2021-06-05 Eswatini - Lesotho (1:0), friendly in Maputo (MOZ)
2021-06-08 Mozambique - Eswatini (1:1), friendly in Maputo (MOZ)
2021-06-21 Jordan - South Sudan (awd 3:0), this Arab Cup qualifier wasn't played because of a lot of COVID-19 cases in the South Sudanese team, but still included by FIFA.
In comparison with my final preview FIFA excluded the following matches that I included:
2021-05-25 Indonesia - Afghanistan (2:3), friendly in Dubai (UAE)
2021-05-25 Oman - Thailand (1:0), friendly in Dubai (UAE)
2021-05-29 Singapore - Afghanistan (1:1), friendly in Dubai (UAE)
2021-06-01 Lithuania - Estonia (0:1), match one in the Baltic Cup in Vilnius (LTU).
2021-06-08 Cameroon - Nigeria (0:0), friendly in Wiener Neustadt (AUT)
2021-06-08 Kosovo - Guinea (1:2), friendly in Manavgat (TUR)
2021-06-09 Congo - Niger (1:0), friendly in Antalya (TUR)
2021-06-11 Sudan - Zambia (3:2), friendly in Omdurman (SDN)
2021-06-17 Algeria - Liberia (5:1), friendly in Oran (ALG)
As Homer indicated FIFA has decided to handle friendlies more strictly according to the fixed dates per confederation in their International Match calendar 2020-2024. Until now we had the following 'examples' regarding this aspect:
- the September 2020 window was only open for UEFA. The all-AFC friendly on 2020-09-03 between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (played in UZB) was included with I=10.
- the October 2020 window was open for all confederations except CONCACAF. The all-CONCACAF friendlies on 2020-10-10 and 2020-10-13 between Costa Rica and Panama (played in CRC) were both included with I=10.
- the November 2020 window was open for all confederations except CONCACAF. The all-CONCACAF friendly on 2020-11-15 between Guatemala and Honduras (played in GUA) was included with I=10. Also the friendly on 2020-11-16 between USA and Panama (played in Austria) was included with I=10.
- the March 2021 window was open for all confederations while UEFA had one extra day to accommodate a third qualification match day. The all-UEFA friendlies on 2021-03-31 (the extra day) between Switzerland and Finland and between Sweden and Estonia were included with I=10.
Now the June 2021 window was from May 31st to June 8th for UEFA and CONMEBOL teams and until June 15th for the other confederations. The friendlies with UEFA or CONMEBOL teams involved after June 8th were:
2021-06-09 Portugal - Israel (played in POR): I=5
2021-06-10 Estonia - Latvia (played in EST): I=5
2021-06-11 Japan - Serbia (played in JPN): I=10
2021-06-11 Kosovo - Gambia (played in TUR): I=5
The first two all-UEFA friendlies are logically calculated with I=5. I think it's also logical that JPN-SRB had an I=10 as Japan is an AFC-team. The difficulty starts with the KOS-GAM friendly. I would expect that because GAM is a CAF-team this match would also be I=10. Other friendlies after June 8th with CAF-teams involved have after all an I=10. Homer suggested that the (European) venue plays a role here. I find that hard to believe, because that would be the first time that FIFA does anything at all with the venue in their calculations. But for now it is indeed the only explanation I can come up with too.
With these considerations included I can calculate all points on two decimals correctly as shown in the updated points calculation sheet.
Hi Ed, hope you had a nice holiday! I'm a little surprised you have the same numbers, but it could be because of the correction differences that were (needed to be) made for the April ranking. I myself have very small differences for 12 CONCACAF nations, and unsurprisingly all of them were "corrected" in my database after FIFA published their April ranking with the decimals. Actually, in total I corrected 20 nations at that time, ranging from between -0.005 for Grenada, and -1.77 for Barbados. But also Canada -0.02, Guatemala 0.03, Panama -0.05, etc. But I was already thinking that these numbers are all (apart from Grenada) precise to only two decimal points, and we calculate the rankings without limiting the decimal points. For presentation/comparison I do round the points, but not in the database. So I'm curious about how your April corrections compare, and if you have all countries exact to within two decimal points. For example, for Canada I have 1399.356.. (so 1399.36), whereas FIFA list 1399.35. For Panama I have 1334.861... (so 1334.86) whereas FIFA list 1334.85. I have further differences for St. Kitts/Nevis 0.007, Nicaragua -0.006, Bermuda -0.008, Grenada -0.006, Belize -0.006, St. Vincent/Grenadines -0.011, Montserrat -0.006, Cuba -0.005, Bahamas 0.006, and the US Virgin Islands 0.006. All others are exact. I should also add, my starting numbers for the previous ranking are all "exactly" the same as the "previous" points that FIFA quote for the August ranking, so the starting point was correct at least for all CONCACAF nations (which I double-checked!). I also "programmatically scrape" the FIFA ranking off the website before my program works out the ranking, so it is not like I entered a number wrong somewhere... Dank alvast voor je tijd en ik ben dankbaar voor wat voor hulp dan ook! mvg!
ReplyDeleteHi Homer,
ReplyDeleteindeed, your small differences must be caused by using (correctly) the unrounded numbers in the calculations while at the same time your starting points from the May ranking were 'only' correct on two decimals. Of course the starting points should be unrounded too.
After the April 2021 ranking I made only a few adjustments: for the CONCACAF teams BRB, GUY and SLV concerning their 'famous' 2018 adjustments based on earlier rounded ranking points, which turned out not completely correct when regarded the two decimals in the April 2021 ranking.
In the updated detailed points calculation sheet (which you can download under the 'Important info' section in the main menu) all details about the calculations per country are presented. Hand made adjustments are mentioned in the country-tabs for BRB, CIV, SLV, ETH, GUY, PAN, SDN and ZAM. Also you can find in that sheet the complete list with included matches and each resulting ranking with unrounded points since June 2018. I think you can find all the answers on your questions there, and if not, feel free to ask them in detail here. I will gladly answer them.
Hi Ed, no, I think you misunderstand. I always use unrounded numbers for every calculation, always have, for the many years I've done this, and I only show rounded numbers for presentation in my application (actually with a checkbox I can see both). What I meant was that when I corrected my country points when FIFA started showing two decimal places in April, I corrected my "unrounded" numbers to FIFA's two decimal places. But of course, that just moves the problem along to the next ranking (or in this case two rankings further because the previous one included just one match for which the problem did not show). This because FIFA's numbers are also just presented to two decimal points, but in reality they are unrounded. If I use a more "accurate" correction, correcting to the numbers in your spreadsheet, then of course I get the same number as FIFA, like you, albeit after rounding to two decimal places. Who knows what the "real" numbers are beyond the decimal points as used by FIFA themselves. Anyway, this solves the problem for now, thank you.
ReplyDeleteHi Ed, I am confused with I=5 and I=10...It's my understanding the I=5 is applied to friendlies played outside IMC, and I=10 within IMC...not if a country played with another outside their region as in Japan-Serbia.
ReplyDeleteso by your logic, I=5 is applied when CRC-SLV played on 08.21 and yet for the SLV-VEN (08.27) I=10 should be applied but you used I=5 even thou VEN is from CONMEBOL. What I am missing ?
Until now the I-factor for friendlies was only based on the match date. It was very simple: if the match date falls inside the IMW then I=10 else I=5.
ReplyDeleteBut now with all the match schedule adjustments because of COVID-19 FIFA is forced to define for the IMW's until Summer 2022 different periods for different confederations: there is no longer one IMW for all confederations. For instance: the June 2021 IMW for UEFA and CONMEBOL was from May 31st to June 8th, the June 2021 IMW for the other confederations was from May 31st to June 15th.
What can we deduce from the August 2021 ranking in relation to the applied I-factor of friendlies?
- I=10 is applied for friendlies with a match date that falls inside the IMW of AT LEAST ONE OF THE teams confederations. For example: JPN-SRB played on June 11th had I=10 because the match date falls within the IMW for AFC (Japan's confederation).
- I=5 is applied for friendlies with a match date that falls outside the IMW of BOTH OF THE teams confederations. For example: POR-ISR played on June 9th had I=5 because the match date falls outside the IMW for UEFA (Portugal's and Israel's confederation).
- The problem lies in the match Kosovo-Gambia, played on June 11th. According to the simple rules above, this match should have I=10 because the match date falls within the IMW for CAF (Gambia's confederation). The match was however calculated with I=5. Apparently there should be an additional condition applied that forced the I-factor of this match to become 5. Homer suggested (and I concurred) that this must be caused by the venue where the match was played (Turkey => confederation UEFA).
So this means that from now on the I-factor should be determined as:
- I=10 is applied for friendlies with a match date that falls inside the IMW of at least one of the teams confederations AND the match venue is situated in a confederation with an IMW where the match date also falls inside.
- I=5 is applied in other cases.
Your examples of friendlies played on August 21st and August 27th are both calculated with I=5 because the September IMW starts for all confederations on August 30th, so the match date of these friendlies falls outside the September IMW anyway (and of course also outside the June IMW).
There were in June not many examples to test if these new I-factor determination conditions are true: only 4 friendlies were played after June 8th with UEFA or CONMEBOL teams involved.
Also in the coming months the opportunities to test this hypotheses will be very limited (if existent at all). Here are all currently published IMW's until Summer 2022:
September 2021 IMW: 30 Aug - 7 Sep (for AFC, CAF, OFC) and 30 Aug - 8 Sep (for UEFA and CONCACAF) and 30 Aug - 9 Sep (for CONMEBOL)
October 2021 IMW: 4 Oct - 12 Oct (for UEFA, AFC, CAF, OFC) and 4 Oct - 13 Oct (for CONCACAF) and probably 4 Oct - 14 Oct (for CONMEBOL)
November 2021 IMW: 8 Nov - 16 Nov (for all confederations)
January 2022 IMW: 24 Jan - 1 Feb (for AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL, OFC) and 24 Jan - 2 Feb (for CONCACAF)
March 2022 IMW: 21 Mar - 29 Mar (for UEFA, AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL, OFC) and 21 Mar - 30 Mar (for CONCACAF)
June 2022 IMW: 30 May - 14 Jun (for all confederations)
This is an outstanding explanation and thanks for the detailed explanation.
DeleteHonestly in my opinion, I think having the additional condition of where the match played was an unintended consequence which FIFA did not foresee. I have the feeling that FIFA will eliminate this and revise the I factor for next release. I do see Qatar playing a lot of friendlies and spot a few of them outside the IMW. We see what happens at next official rankings.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete