Football rankings: FIFA ranking: August 2021 final preview

Saturday, July 31, 2021

FIFA ranking: August 2021 final preview

FIFA will publish the August ranking on Thursday August 12th. This final preview contains 350 matches, out of 369 matches played since May 24th.

Only the Gold Cup final between USA and Mexico to be played yet for this ranking.

Points for both teams will be:

	USA		MEX
win USA	1647,76	(10th)	1658,29	(9th)
PSO-win USA	1637,76	(11th)	1658,29	(9th)
PSO-win MEX	1627,76	(13th)	1667,07	(8th)
win MEX	1626,54	(13th)	1677,07	(8th)

Elo predicts a PSO-win for the US of A tomorrow.

Qatar performed better than expected as invitee in the Gold Cup and are in general on the rise. So no surprise to see they record a new highest spot in the FIFA ranking:

Qatar (42 - 51 in August 1993)

One team drops to their lowest rank again:

Anguilla (210 in November 2019)

Best movers:

16 - Qatar

11 - Canada

9 - USA, Czech Republic, Estonia

Worst movers:

-17 - Thailand

-11 - Chinese Taipei

-10 - Turkey, Venezuela, North Macedonia

Best movers in the top 50:

16 - Qatar

9 - USA, Czech Republic

Worst movers in the top 50:

-10 - Turkey, Venezuela

-6 - Poland

Stay safe and healthy everybody !

pos Aug.	team	pts Aug.	+/- pos	+/- pts
1	Belgium	1822,37	0	38,99
2	Brazil	1797,67	1	55,02
3	France	1761,80	-1	4,50
4	England	1752,83	0	66,05
5	Italy	1744,67	2	102,61
6	Argentina	1714,43	2	72,48
7	Spain	1680,43	-1	32,30
8	Portugal	1662,37	-3	-3,75
9	Mexico	1658,29	2	28,73
10	Denmark	1642,28	0	10,73
11	Netherlands	1637,48	5	39,44
12	Uruguay	1634,63	-3	-4,45
13	USA	1626,54	7	71,12
14	Switzerland	1621,37	-1	15,16
15	Colombia	1617,67	0	17,01
16	Germany	1613,32	-4	4,20
17	Sweden	1606,79	1	36,98
18	Croatia	1594,36	-4	-11,39
19	Wales	1567,29	-2	-3,07
20	Chile	1557,81	-1	-11,71
21	Senegal	1545,36	1	2,91
22	Peru	1543,16	5	31,28
23	Austria	1535,12	0	11,70
24	Japan	1529,45	4	20,11
25	Ukraine	1522,70	-1	8,06
26	Iran	1522,04	5	22,52
27	Poland	1516,27	-6	-33,60
28	Tunisia	1515,30	-2	2,42
29	Serbia	1507,19	-4	-5,71
30	Algeria	1499,51	3	12,82
31	Czech Republic	1492,65	9	33,84
32	Morocco	1487,89	2	8,57
33	Paraguay	1483,49	2	7,47
34	Nigeria	1478,91	-2	-8,25
35	Australia	1477,21	6	19,72
36	Korea Republic	1474,96	3	14,71
37	Hungary	1474,39	0	5,64
38	Slovakia	1467,39	-2	-7,85
39	Turkey	1463,91	-10	-41,14
40	Venezuela	1463,30	-10	-37,41
41	Russia	1462,24	-3	-0,41
42	Qatar	1455,27	16	57,35
43	Norway	1450,12	-1	-2,22
44	Costa Rica	1449,79	6	26,39
45	Romania	1439,70	-2	-9,53
46	Egypt	1432,63	0	0,00
47	Republic of Ireland	1429,44	0	2,22
48	Greece	1427,04	3	8,34
49	Scotland	1424,77	-5	-16,66
50	Jamaica	1423,06	-5	-9,59
51	Northern Ireland	1422,29	-3	-3,45
52	Ghana	1420,61	-3	-4,65
53	Iceland	1418,48	-1	2,49
54	Cameroon	1411,33	1	6,46
55	Ecuador	1405,26	-2	-7,75
56	Finland	1403,96	-2	-6,86
57	Cote d'Ivoire	1402,90	2	5,13
58	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1401,57	-3	-3,30
59	Canada	1399,35	11	58,79
60	Mali	1392,64	-3	-8,30
61	Saudi Arabia	1386,03	4	21,64
62	Burkina Faso	1383,86	-2	-9,04
63	Honduras	1377,79	4	16,58
64	El Salvador	1375,43	5	34,19
65	Congo DR	1373,16	-4	-3,49
66	Slovenia	1371,25	-3	1,37
67	Montenegro	1363,03	-3	-5,46
68	United Arab Emirates	1362,23	5	32,07
69	Albania	1359,83	-3	-2,26
70	Iraq	1354,51	-2	1,69
71	China PR	1352,68	6	29,72
72	North Macedonia	1342,92	-10	-31,81
73	South Africa	1337,74	2	12,10
74	Panama	1334,85	4	12,88
75	Bulgaria	1334,83	-4	-4,20
76	Guinea	1333,15	-4	1,36
77	Cape Verde Islands	1327,11	-4	-3,05
78	Curacao	1310,40	-2	-12,66
79	Oman	1306,84	1	5,33
80	Syria	1302,75	-1	-1,37
81	Israel	1287,26	4	3,90
82	Bolivia	1285,94	-1	-14,17
83	Uzbekistan	1284,42	3	3,43
84	Uganda	1282,14	0	-4,62
85	Gabon	1278,10	3	0,00
86	Benin	1277,39	-4	-15,71
87	Armenia	1273,67	3	0,39
88	Belarus	1270,75	1	-6,04
89	Zambia	1270,15	-2	-10,00
90	Haiti	1268,38	-7	-22,24
91	Georgia	1264,06	0	4,55
92	Vietnam	1260,81	0	2,75
93	Congo	1259,97	1	4,09
94	Bahrain	1251,29	4	11,19
95	Jordan	1243,97	0	-7,66
96	Luxembourg	1238,59	0	-6,27
97	Madagascar	1238,24	3	0,00
98	Lebanon	1237,98	-5	-18,10
99	Cyprus	1235,30	-2	-5,48
100	Mauritania	1227,14	1	2,38
101	Kyrgyzstan	1223,40	-2	-16,68
102	Palestine	1216,25	2	19,45
103	Trinidad and Tobago	1207,94	0	6,61
104	Kenya	1205,26	-2	0,00
105	India	1180,25	0	-4,11
106	Sierra Leone	1178,17	8	15,56
107	Estonia	1177,36	9	15,78
108	Namibia	1172,35	3	3,91
109	Zimbabwe	1171,86	-2	-3,64
110	Guinea-Bissau	1171,19	-2	0,00
111	Korea DPR	1169,96	-2	0,00
112	Azerbaijan	1166,44	-2	-2,09
113	Faroe Islands	1165,43	0	-0,02
114	Mozambique	1163,44	3	1,89
115	Tajikistan	1157,76	6	6,66
116	Kosovo	1157,64	4	5,91
117	Sudan	1153,93	6	4,79
118	Malawi	1153,48	-3	-8,91
119	Niger	1152,28	-7	-13,63
120	New Zealand	1149,43	2	0,00
121	Libya	1147,70	-2	-8,56
122	Central African Republic	1147,09	-4	-10,55
123	Thailand	1146,80	-17	-31,27
124	Kazakhstan	1144,41	0	-2,94
125	Guatemala	1139,12	2	9,82
126	Angola	1135,88	0	0,00
127	Rwanda	1134,24	2	10,55
128	Philippines	1131,93	-3	-4,01
129	Antigua and Barbuda	1131,08	-1	2,06
130	Turkmenistan	1117,60	0	11,09
131	Togo	1105,62	2	1,48
132	Equatorial Guinea	1105,20	0	0,00
133	Comoros	1104,45	-2	-1,99
134	Tanzania	1093,76	3	5,71
135	Lithuania	1092,18	-1	-10,66
136	Latvia	1081,47	2	-0,19
137	Ethiopia	1079,41	3	0,00
138	St. Kitts and Nevis	1077,76	-3	-13,36
139	Suriname	1077,57	-3	-11,86
140	Burundi	1075,64	2	0,00
141	Solomon Islands	1072,78	2	0,00
142	Kuwait	1067,44	6	11,14
143	Lesotho	1066,79	3	-3,12
144	Nicaragua	1063,60	3	3,09
145	Myanmar	1057,44	-6	-23,82
146	Hong Kong	1053,39	-2	-18,61
147	Botswana	1051,58	3	-0,24
148	Gambia	1051,13	4	7,68
149	Liberia	1049,21	2	1,92
150	Eswatini	1047,90	4	8,66
151	Afghanistan	1047,17	-2	-5,07
152	Chinese Taipei	1046,34	-11	-32,14
153	Yemen	1046,26	-8	-24,28
154	Malaysia	1040,77	-1	0,75
155	New Caledonia	1035,12	2	0,00
156	Andorra	1031,64	2	-3,26
157	Dominican Republic	1029,42	-1	-6,80
158	Maldives	1028,30	-3	-10,01
159	Tahiti	1014,27	2	0,00
160	Singapore	1000,50	-1	-19,77
161	Fiji	996,27	2	0,00
162	Barbados	995,94	0	-15,01
163	Vanuatu	995,62	1	0,00
164	Papua New Guinea	990,55	2	0,00
165	South Sudan	984,19	4	0,00
166	Bermuda	982,43	2	-5,35
167	Grenada	974,03	-7	-43,54
168	Nepal	972,19	3	4,31
169	Belize	967,42	1	-10,53
170	Mauritius	964,94	2	0,00
171	Puerto Rico	962,77	7	23,91
172	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	960,71	-5	-28,61
173	Guyana	958,87	-8	-31,78
174	Indonesia	955,05	-1	-9,02
175	Moldova	954,15	2	5,99
176	St. Lucia	953,45	0	0,00
177	Malta	952,00	-2	-3,89
178	Montserrat	950,71	2	17,07
179	Cambodia	950,26	-5	-13,53
180	Cuba	946,86	1	23,83
181	Chad	935,00	-2	0,00
182	Djibouti	922,37	1	3,46
183	Macau	922,10	-1	0,00
184	Dominica	916,72	4	12,46
185	Mongolia	916,68	7	19,71
186	Laos	912,07	-1	0,00
187	Bhutan	910,96	0	0,00
188	Bangladesh	909,18	-4	-8,20
189	Liechtenstein	907,66	-3	-3,39
190	Brunei Darussalam	903,90	-1	0,00
191	Sao Tomé e Príncipe	903,31	-1	0,00
192	American Samoa	900,27	-1	0,00
193	Samoa	894,26	0	0,00
194	Gibraltar	880,27	1	0,11
195	Timor-Leste	879,43	1	0,00
196	Somalia	873,71	1	-5,42
197	Cayman Islands	873,64	-3	-10,80
198	Pakistan	866,81	1	0,00
199	Seychelles	865,69	1	0,00
200	Tonga	861,81	2	0,00
201	Aruba	859,97	4	9,87
202	Bahamas	858,50	-1	-3,34
203	Guam	858,49	-5	-14,34
204	Eritrea	855,56	-1	0,00
205	Sri Lanka	846,54	-1	-6,53
206	Turks and Caicos Islands	839,84	0	-3,81
207	US Virgin Islands	816,13	0	-13,00
208	British Virgin Islands	812,94	0	-13,33
209	San Marino	802,43	1	-2,28
210	Anguilla	792,34	-1	-13,08

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

32 comments:

CWY2190August 3, 2021 at 2:10 AM
Ed,

I've always trusted your data since even you've proved FIFA wrong on occasions. Any idea why the person who runs this site (which I've never heard of before it popped up on reddit today) has Mexico and the US flipped?

https://football-ranking.com/
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CWY2190August 3, 2021 at 8:08 PM
Thanks. I wasn't sure if Nations Leagues had that ruled applied about the knockout stages or if it was just confederation/WC finals.
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EdAugust 3, 2021 at 8:25 PM
Indeed, this rule is also applied to Nations league finals. The UNL Finals in 2019 showed that already.
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kauAugust 11, 2021 at 4:50 PM
That site has wrong calculation of coeffs. It should be done recursively just like on Ed springsheets. Instead they add/subtract points from previous piblished rankings.
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CWY2190August 12, 2021 at 5:32 PM
Have you been able to figure out the Estonia/Lithuania/Latvia rankings from FIFA? It doesn't work for me when I remove the Baltic Cup nor if I make it worth 5 or 10 points. Confused.
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HomerAugust 14, 2021 at 10:42 AM
I'm down to the last few differences. What seems to be the case is that we have a split FIFA calendar between confederations (https://kassiesa.net/uefa/files/2018-24-fifa-calendar.pdf). UEFA/CONMEBOL use the standard one from 31 May to 8 June, and the rest until 15 June. I had to write a new scraper for automating the calculation given the new website, and I'm having to model the situation where a friendly match either has an importance of 5 or 10 depending whether or not a team or teams from the confederation with the extended calendar plays in it. So Kosovo v Gambia has an importance of 5, but Japan v Serbia has an importance seemingly of 10 for both. Maybe this is because of where the match was played, the first match in UEFA, the second in AFC. I can't explain it otherwise. I can confirm that it looks like Lithuania v Estonia was removed from the list of A internationals, and then for Estonia v Latvia an importance of 5 is used because it was played two days after the match calendar for UEFA "expired".
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HomerAugust 14, 2021 at 1:55 PM
I can get it down to two unexplainable differences:

- Bahamas 858.506 (me) against 858 (FIFA)
- Malawi 1153.496 (me) against 1154 (FIFA)

This is 348 matches:
100 Friendlies
2 Baltic Cup
1 ANC Qualifier
51 Euro 2020
28 Copa America
25 Gold Cup
5 Gold Cup Qualifiers
4 CCC Nations League Finals
101 World Cup Qualifiers
24 COSAFA Cup
7 Arab Cup

Excluded:

2021-05-25 Indonesia 2-3 Afghanistan
2021-05-25 Oman 1-0 Thailand
2021-05-29 Singapore 1-1 Afghanistan
2021-06-01 Lithunia 0-1 Estonia (Baltic Cup)
2021-06-08 Kosovo 1-2 Guinea
2021-06-08 Cameroon 0-0 Nigeria
2021-06-09 Niger 0-1 Congo
2021-06-11 Sudan 3-2 Zambia

Included:

2021-06-05 Gambia 2-0 Niger
2021-06-11 Kosovo 1-0 Gambia
2021-07-03 Mexico 4-0 Nigeria

Questionable (one of these is probably included):

2021-07-03 Lesotho 0-0 Namibia
2021-07-04 Botswana 1-1 Namibia
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CWY2190August 16, 2021 at 2:58 AM
I've been playing around with the FIFA rankings and their formula. Most of you probably know there is a factor of 600 applied in the Win Expectancy Calculation. Basically a team that is 600 points ahead of it's opponent will have a win exp. of 90.9%. I was curious of that number matched up well to the fairly large set of results we've had since June 2018.

And well the short answer is no it doesn't. Using a factor of 400 (which is what the Elo Football Rankings use as a base factor) matches up with the results much better. In particular, using the 600 factor results in favorites winning too much and underdogs losing too much. This results in the favorites gaining more points then they should.

Here's a quick summary of what happens when you recalculate all the matches since the new formula started using 400 as the factor.

https://i.imgur.com/Oj7an7i.png
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TarekAugust 16, 2021 at 1:16 PM
Hi Ed, I'm wondering if you will update the link of overall "Points Calculation" matches and rankings. It seems to me that last update was since May,21 while huge updates after while. Thanks in advance.
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EdAugust 16, 2021 at 9:52 PM
Hey Tarek (and everybody else),
I will of course, but at the moment I'm enjoying my holiday. It will be next week at the earliest that I will be able to thoroughly look at the August ranking in comparison with my calculations and also update the points calculation sheet afterwards.
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Fauzan NaufanAugust 20, 2021 at 10:26 AM
Good news, the decimals are coming back in FIFA website
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HomerAugust 21, 2021 at 1:37 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
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EdAugust 24, 2021 at 9:45 AM
Well, I'm back from holiday and have finally found the time to research the published August ranking.

Although FIFA initially published only the integer points, after a few days the pleasant surprise came that they indeed switched to publishing the first two decimals again. Great !

In comparison with my final preview FIFA included the following matches that I excluded:
2021-06-02 Mozambique - Lesotho (5:0), friendly in Maputo (MOZ)
2021-06-05 Eswatini - Lesotho (1:0), friendly in Maputo (MOZ)
2021-06-08 Mozambique - Eswatini (1:1), friendly in Maputo (MOZ)
2021-06-21 Jordan - South Sudan (awd 3:0), this Arab Cup qualifier wasn't played because of a lot of COVID-19 cases in the South Sudanese team, but still included by FIFA.

In comparison with my final preview FIFA excluded the following matches that I included:
2021-05-25 Indonesia - Afghanistan (2:3), friendly in Dubai (UAE)
2021-05-25 Oman - Thailand (1:0), friendly in Dubai (UAE)
2021-05-29 Singapore - Afghanistan (1:1), friendly in Dubai (UAE)
2021-06-01 Lithuania - Estonia (0:1), match one in the Baltic Cup in Vilnius (LTU).
2021-06-08 Cameroon - Nigeria (0:0), friendly in Wiener Neustadt (AUT)
2021-06-08 Kosovo - Guinea (1:2), friendly in Manavgat (TUR)
2021-06-09 Congo - Niger (1:0), friendly in Antalya (TUR)
2021-06-11 Sudan - Zambia (3:2), friendly in Omdurman (SDN)
2021-06-17 Algeria - Liberia (5:1), friendly in Oran (ALG)

As Homer indicated FIFA has decided to handle friendlies more strictly according to the fixed dates per confederation in their International Match calendar 2020-2024. Until now we had the following 'examples' regarding this aspect:
- the September 2020 window was only open for UEFA. The all-AFC friendly on 2020-09-03 between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (played in UZB) was included with I=10.
- the October 2020 window was open for all confederations except CONCACAF. The all-CONCACAF friendlies on 2020-10-10 and 2020-10-13 between Costa Rica and Panama (played in CRC) were both included with I=10.
- the November 2020 window was open for all confederations except CONCACAF. The all-CONCACAF friendly on 2020-11-15 between Guatemala and Honduras (played in GUA) was included with I=10. Also the friendly on 2020-11-16 between USA and Panama (played in Austria) was included with I=10.
- the March 2021 window was open for all confederations while UEFA had one extra day to accommodate a third qualification match day. The all-UEFA friendlies on 2021-03-31 (the extra day) between Switzerland and Finland and between Sweden and Estonia were included with I=10.

Now the June 2021 window was from May 31st to June 8th for UEFA and CONMEBOL teams and until June 15th for the other confederations. The friendlies with UEFA or CONMEBOL teams involved after June 8th were:
2021-06-09 Portugal - Israel (played in POR): I=5
2021-06-10 Estonia - Latvia (played in EST): I=5
2021-06-11 Japan - Serbia (played in JPN): I=10
2021-06-11 Kosovo - Gambia (played in TUR): I=5
The first two all-UEFA friendlies are logically calculated with I=5. I think it's also logical that JPN-SRB had an I=10 as Japan is an AFC-team. The difficulty starts with the KOS-GAM friendly. I would expect that because GAM is a CAF-team this match would also be I=10. Other friendlies after June 8th with CAF-teams involved have after all an I=10. Homer suggested that the (European) venue plays a role here. I find that hard to believe, because that would be the first time that FIFA does anything at all with the venue in their calculations. But for now it is indeed the only explanation I can come up with too.

With these considerations included I can calculate all points on two decimals correctly as shown in the updated points calculation sheet.
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HomerAugust 25, 2021 at 7:43 AM
Hi Ed, hope you had a nice holiday! I'm a little surprised you have the same numbers, but it could be because of the correction differences that were (needed to be) made for the April ranking. I myself have very small differences for 12 CONCACAF nations, and unsurprisingly all of them were "corrected" in my database after FIFA published their April ranking with the decimals. Actually, in total I corrected 20 nations at that time, ranging from between -0.005 for Grenada, and -1.77 for Barbados. But also Canada -0.02, Guatemala 0.03, Panama -0.05, etc. But I was already thinking that these numbers are all (apart from Grenada) precise to only two decimal points, and we calculate the rankings without limiting the decimal points. For presentation/comparison I do round the points, but not in the database. So I'm curious about how your April corrections compare, and if you have all countries exact to within two decimal points. For example, for Canada I have 1399.356.. (so 1399.36), whereas FIFA list 1399.35. For Panama I have 1334.861... (so 1334.86) whereas FIFA list 1334.85. I have further differences for St. Kitts/Nevis 0.007, Nicaragua -0.006, Bermuda -0.008, Grenada -0.006, Belize -0.006, St. Vincent/Grenadines -0.011, Montserrat -0.006, Cuba -0.005, Bahamas 0.006, and the US Virgin Islands 0.006. All others are exact. I should also add, my starting numbers for the previous ranking are all "exactly" the same as the "previous" points that FIFA quote for the August ranking, so the starting point was correct at least for all CONCACAF nations (which I double-checked!). I also "programmatically scrape" the FIFA ranking off the website before my program works out the ranking, so it is not like I entered a number wrong somewhere... Dank alvast voor je tijd en ik ben dankbaar voor wat voor hulp dan ook! mvg!
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EdAugust 25, 2021 at 11:28 AM
Hi Homer,

indeed, your small differences must be caused by using (correctly) the unrounded numbers in the calculations while at the same time your starting points from the May ranking were 'only' correct on two decimals. Of course the starting points should be unrounded too.
After the April 2021 ranking I made only a few adjustments: for the CONCACAF teams BRB, GUY and SLV concerning their 'famous' 2018 adjustments based on earlier rounded ranking points, which turned out not completely correct when regarded the two decimals in the April 2021 ranking.

In the updated detailed points calculation sheet (which you can download under the 'Important info' section in the main menu) all details about the calculations per country are presented. Hand made adjustments are mentioned in the country-tabs for BRB, CIV, SLV, ETH, GUY, PAN, SDN and ZAM. Also you can find in that sheet the complete list with included matches and each resulting ranking with unrounded points since June 2018. I think you can find all the answers on your questions there, and if not, feel free to ask them in detail here. I will gladly answer them.
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HomerAugust 25, 2021 at 4:22 PM
Hi Ed, no, I think you misunderstand. I always use unrounded numbers for every calculation, always have, for the many years I've done this, and I only show rounded numbers for presentation in my application (actually with a checkbox I can see both). What I meant was that when I corrected my country points when FIFA started showing two decimal places in April, I corrected my "unrounded" numbers to FIFA's two decimal places. But of course, that just moves the problem along to the next ranking (or in this case two rankings further because the previous one included just one match for which the problem did not show). This because FIFA's numbers are also just presented to two decimal points, but in reality they are unrounded. If I use a more "accurate" correction, correcting to the numbers in your spreadsheet, then of course I get the same number as FIFA, like you, albeit after rounding to two decimal places. Who knows what the "real" numbers are beyond the decimal points as used by FIFA themselves. Anyway, this solves the problem for now, thank you.
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RamAugust 27, 2021 at 7:25 PM
Hi Ed, I am confused with I=5 and I=10...It's my understanding the I=5 is applied to friendlies played outside IMC, and I=10 within IMC...not if a country played with another outside their region as in Japan-Serbia.

so by your logic, I=5 is applied when CRC-SLV played on 08.21 and yet for the SLV-VEN (08.27) I=10 should be applied but you used I=5 even thou VEN is from CONMEBOL. What I am missing ?
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EdAugust 28, 2021 at 9:24 AM
Until now the I-factor for friendlies was only based on the match date. It was very simple: if the match date falls inside the IMW then I=10 else I=5.
But now with all the match schedule adjustments because of COVID-19 FIFA is forced to define for the IMW's until Summer 2022 different periods for different confederations: there is no longer one IMW for all confederations. For instance: the June 2021 IMW for UEFA and CONMEBOL was from May 31st to June 8th, the June 2021 IMW for the other confederations was from May 31st to June 15th.

What can we deduce from the August 2021 ranking in relation to the applied I-factor of friendlies?

- I=10 is applied for friendlies with a match date that falls inside the IMW of AT LEAST ONE OF THE teams confederations. For example: JPN-SRB played on June 11th had I=10 because the match date falls within the IMW for AFC (Japan's confederation).
- I=5 is applied for friendlies with a match date that falls outside the IMW of BOTH OF THE teams confederations. For example: POR-ISR played on June 9th had I=5 because the match date falls outside the IMW for UEFA (Portugal's and Israel's confederation).
- The problem lies in the match Kosovo-Gambia, played on June 11th. According to the simple rules above, this match should have I=10 because the match date falls within the IMW for CAF (Gambia's confederation). The match was however calculated with I=5. Apparently there should be an additional condition applied that forced the I-factor of this match to become 5. Homer suggested (and I concurred) that this must be caused by the venue where the match was played (Turkey => confederation UEFA).

So this means that from now on the I-factor should be determined as:
- I=10 is applied for friendlies with a match date that falls inside the IMW of at least one of the teams confederations AND the match venue is situated in a confederation with an IMW where the match date also falls inside.
- I=5 is applied in other cases.

Your examples of friendlies played on August 21st and August 27th are both calculated with I=5 because the September IMW starts for all confederations on August 30th, so the match date of these friendlies falls outside the September IMW anyway (and of course also outside the June IMW).

There were in June not many examples to test if these new I-factor determination conditions are true: only 4 friendlies were played after June 8th with UEFA or CONMEBOL teams involved.

Also in the coming months the opportunities to test this hypotheses will be very limited (if existent at all). Here are all currently published IMW's until Summer 2022:
September 2021 IMW: 30 Aug - 7 Sep (for AFC, CAF, OFC) and 30 Aug - 8 Sep (for UEFA and CONCACAF) and 30 Aug - 9 Sep (for CONMEBOL)
October 2021 IMW: 4 Oct - 12 Oct (for UEFA, AFC, CAF, OFC) and 4 Oct - 13 Oct (for CONCACAF) and probably 4 Oct - 14 Oct (for CONMEBOL)
November 2021 IMW: 8 Nov - 16 Nov (for all confederations)
January 2022 IMW: 24 Jan - 1 Feb (for AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL, OFC) and 24 Jan - 2 Feb (for CONCACAF)
March 2022 IMW: 21 Mar - 29 Mar (for UEFA, AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL, OFC) and 21 Mar - 30 Mar (for CONCACAF)
June 2022 IMW: 30 May - 14 Jun (for all confederations)
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RamSeptember 2, 2021 at 4:25 AM
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