CONCACAF qualification World Cup 2022 (August 2021)

The eight teams qualified for the Octogonal, the final CONCACAF qualification round for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar, are known. Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras were automatically qualified for this round. El Salvador, Canada and Panama qualified from the second round play-offs in June.

Last week the Gold Cup 2021 finished, with the USA winning in extra time over Mexico. Semi finalists were Canada and invitee Qatar. So now all is set for the Octogonal, 14 match days to be played between next month and March next year. Numbers one to three qualify for Qatar, number 4 qualifies for an interconfederational play-off in June 2022 against a yet unknown opponent from Asia (number 5), South America (number 5) or OFC (number 1). No word yet from FIFA when the draw for the interconfederational play-offs will be staged.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th
Mexico	45,35	30,63	13,81	5,66	2,85	1,18	0,40	0,12
USA	39,75	32,26	15,59	7,16	2,98	1,41	0,63	0,22
Canada	8,53	17,95	25,79	19,25	12,60	8,36	4,86	2,66
Costa Rica	2,52	7,14	15,06	19,14	17,86	15,98	12,86	9,44
Honduras	1,28	4,21	9,49	14,14	17,80	18,45	18,08	16,55
Jamaica	0,97	3,26	7,99	13,18	17,18	19,00	19,25	19,17
Panama	0,94	2,26	6,30	10,73	14,71	18,19	21,82	25,05
El Salvador	0,66	2,29	5,97	10,74	14,02	17,43	22,10	26,79

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup and for the interconfederational play-off:

team	WC	IPO
Mexico	89,79	5,66
USA	87,60	7,16
Canada	52,27	19,25
Costa Rica	24,72	19,14
Honduras	14,98	14,14
Jamaica	12,22	13,18
Panama	9,50	10,73
El Salvador	8,92	10,74

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