Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the September 2021 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on September 16th.
Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.
Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.
Aug pos |
team |
Aug pts |
min Sep pts |
max Sep pts |
1 |
Belgium |
1822 |
1758 |
1833 |
2 |
Brazil |
1798 |
1747 |
1822 |
3 |
France |
1762 |
1704 |
1779 |
4 |
England |
1753 |
1693 |
1768 |
5 |
Italy |
1745 |
1686 |
1761 |
6 |
Argentina |
1714 |
1665 |
1740 |
7 |
Spain |
1680 |
1624 |
1699 |
8 |
Portugal |
1662 |
1615 |
1675 |
9 |
Mexico |
1658 |
1604 |
1679 |
10 |
USA |
1648 |
1593 |
1668 |
11 |
Denmark |
1642 |
1584 |
1659 |
12 |
Netherlands |
1637 |
1586 |
1661 |
13 |
Uruguay |
1635 |
1583 |
1658 |
14 |
Switzerland |
1621 |
1587 |
1648 |
15 |
Colombia |
1618 |
1569 |
1644 |
16 |
Germany |
1613 |
1554 |
1629 |
17 |
Sweden |
1607 |
1579 |
1629 |
18 |
Croatia |
1594 |
1546 |
1621 |
19 |
Wales |
1567 |
1522 |
1582 |
20 |
Chile |
1558 |
1523 |
1598 |
21 |
Senegal |
1545 |
1506 |
1556 |
22 |
Peru |
1543 |
1512 |
1587 |
23 |
Austria |
1535 |
1480 |
1555 |
24 |
Japan |
1529 |
1495 |
1545 |
25 |
Ukraine |
1523 |
1490 |
1550 |
26 |
Iran |
1522 |
1488 |
1538 |
27 |
Poland |
1516 |
1469 |
1544 |
28 |
Tunisia |
1515 |
1477 |
1527 |
29 |
Serbia |
1507 |
1469 |
1529 |
30 |
Algeria |
1499 |
1461 |
1511 |
31 |
Czech
Republic |
1493 |
1465 |
1525 |
32 |
Morocco |
1488 |
1452 |
1502 |
33 |
Paraguay |
1483 |
1447 |
1522 |
34 |
Nigeria |
1480 |
1443 |
1493 |
35 |
Australia |
1477 |
1444 |
1494 |
36 |
Korea
Republic |
1475 |
1442 |
1492 |
37 |
Hungary |
1474 |
1432 |
1507 |
38 |
Slovakia |
1467 |
1425 |
1500 |
39 |
Turkey |
1464 |
1418 |
1493 |
40 |
Venezuela |
1463 |
1434 |
1509 |
41 |
Russia |
1462 |
1413 |
1488 |
42 |
Qatar |
1455 |
1440 |
1471 |
43 |
Norway |
1450 |
1399 |
1474 |
44 |
Costa Rica |
1450 |
1413 |
1488 |
45 |
Romania |
1440 |
1390 |
1465 |
46 |
Egypt |
1433 |
1398 |
1448 |
47 |
Republic
of Ireland |
1429 |
1393 |
1468 |
48 |
Greece |
1427 |
1397 |
1457 |
49 |
Scotland |
1425 |
1386 |
1461 |
50 |
Jamaica |
1423 |
1389 |
1464 |
51 |
Northern
Ireland |
1422 |
1388 |
1448 |
52 |
Ghana |
1421 |
1387 |
1437 |
53 |
Iceland |
1418 |
1384 |
1459 |
54 |
Cameroon |
1411 |
1380 |
1430 |
55 |
Ecuador |
1405 |
1378 |
1453 |
56 |
Finland |
1404 |
1377 |
1437 |
57 |
Cote
d'Ivoire |
1403 |
1373 |
1423 |
58 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1402 |
1378 |
1429 |
59 |
Canada |
1399 |
1366 |
1441 |
60 |
Mali |
1393 |
1359 |
1409 |
61 |
Saudi
Arabia |
1386 |
1356 |
1406 |
62 |
Burkina
Faso |
1384 |
1356 |
1406 |
63 |
Honduras |
1378 |
1347 |
1422 |
64 |
El
Salvador |
1375 |
1345 |
1420 |
65 |
Congo DR |
1373 |
1340 |
1390 |
66 |
Slovenia |
1371 |
1333 |
1408 |
67 |
Montenegro |
1363 |
1328 |
1403 |
68 |
United
Arab Emirates |
1362 |
1333 |
1383 |
69 |
Albania |
1360 |
1319 |
1394 |
70 |
Iraq |
1355 |
1336 |
1386 |
71 |
China PR |
1353 |
1335 |
1385 |
72 |
North
Macedonia |
1343 |
1308 |
1383 |
73 |
South
Africa |
1338 |
1311 |
1361 |
74 |
Panama |
1335 |
1309 |
1384 |
75 |
Bulgaria |
1335 |
1313 |
1363 |
76 |
Guinea |
1330 |
1305 |
1355 |
77 |
Cape Verde
Islands |
1327 |
1301 |
1351 |
78 |
Curacao |
1310 |
1310 |
1310 |
79 |
Oman |
1305 |
1287 |
1337 |
80 |
Syria |
1303 |
1284 |
1334 |
81 |
Israel |
1288 |
1260 |
1335 |
82 |
Bolivia |
1286 |
1271 |
1346 |
83 |
Uzbekistan |
1284 |
1284 |
1284 |
84 |
Uganda |
1282 |
1258 |
1308 |
85 |
Gabon |
1278 |
1254 |
1304 |
86 |
Benin |
1277 |
1254 |
1304 |
87 |
Zambia |
1276 |
1255 |
1305 |
88 |
Armenia |
1274 |
1237 |
1312 |
89 |
Belarus |
1271 |
1254 |
1329 |
90 |
Haiti |
1268 |
1268 |
1268 |
91 |
Georgia |
1264 |
1245 |
1295 |
92 |
Vietnam |
1261 |
1244 |
1294 |
93 |
Congo |
1256 |
1235 |
1285 |
94 |
Bahrain |
1251 |
1251 |
1251 |
95 |
Jordan |
1245 |
1245 |
1245 |
96 |
Luxembourg |
1239 |
1215 |
1275 |
97 |
Madagascar |
1238 |
1211 |
1261 |
98 |
Lebanon |
1238 |
1221 |
1271 |
99 |
Cyprus |
1235 |
1202 |
1277 |
100 |
Mauritania |
1227 |
1201 |
1251 |
101 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1223 |
1223 |
1223 |
102 |
Palestine |
1216 |
1216 |
1216 |
103 |
Trinidad
and Tobago |
1208 |
1208 |
1208 |
104 |
Kenya |
1205 |
1180 |
1230 |
105 |
India |
1180 |
1166 |
1186 |
106 |
Sierra
Leone |
1178 |
1178 |
1178 |
107 |
Namibia |
1172 |
1148 |
1198 |
108 |
Zimbabwe |
1172 |
1149 |
1199 |
109 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1171 |
1149 |
1199 |
110 |
Estonia |
1171 |
1161 |
1221 |
111 |
Korea DPR |
1170 |
1170 |
1170 |
112 |
Azerbaijan |
1166 |
1146 |
1221 |
113 |
Mozambique |
1166 |
1146 |
1196 |
114 |
Faroe
Islands |
1165 |
1135 |
1210 |
115 |
Kosovo |
1159 |
1139 |
1214 |
116 |
Tajikistan |
1158 |
1158 |
1158 |
117 |
Niger |
1156 |
1131 |
1181 |
118 |
Malawi |
1154 |
1135 |
1185 |
119 |
New
Zealand |
1149 |
1149 |
1149 |
120 |
Thailand |
1149 |
1149 |
1149 |
121 |
Sudan |
1148 |
1131 |
1181 |
122 |
Libya |
1148 |
1126 |
1176 |
123 |
Central
African Republic |
1147 |
1124 |
1174 |
124 |
Kazakhstan |
1144 |
1126 |
1201 |
125 |
Guatemala |
1139 |
1139 |
1139 |
126 |
Angola |
1136 |
1118 |
1168 |
127 |
Rwanda |
1134 |
1117 |
1167 |
128 |
Philippines |
1132 |
1132 |
1132 |
129 |
Antigua
and Barbuda |
1131 |
1131 |
1131 |
130 |
Turkmenistan |
1118 |
1118 |
1118 |
131 |
Togo |
1106 |
1091 |
1141 |
132 |
Equatorial
Guinea |
1105 |
1091 |
1141 |
133 |
Comoros |
1104 |
1104 |
1104 |
134 |
Lithuania |
1097 |
1082 |
1157 |
135 |
Tanzania |
1094 |
1078 |
1128 |
136 |
Latvia |
1084 |
1055 |
1130 |
137 |
Ethiopia |
1079 |
1064 |
1114 |
138 |
St. Kitts
and Nevis |
1078 |
1078 |
1078 |
139 |
Suriname |
1078 |
1078 |
1078 |
140 |
Burundi |
1076 |
1076 |
1076 |
141 |
Solomon
Islands |
1073 |
1073 |
1073 |
142 |
Kuwait |
1067 |
1067 |
1067 |
143 |
Nicaragua |
1064 |
1064 |
1064 |
144 |
Lesotho |
1058 |
1058 |
1058 |
145 |
Myanmar |
1057 |
1057 |
1057 |
146 |
Eswatini |
1054 |
1054 |
1054 |
147 |
Hong Kong |
1053 |
1053 |
1053 |
148 |
Gambia |
1053 |
1053 |
1053 |
149 |
Botswana |
1052 |
1052 |
1052 |
150 |
Liberia |
1050 |
1036 |
1086 |
151 |
Chinese
Taipei |
1046 |
1032 |
1057 |
152 |
Yemen |
1046 |
1046 |
1046 |
153 |
Afghanistan |
1045 |
1045 |
1045 |
154 |
Malaysia |
1041 |
1041 |
1041 |
155 |
New
Caledonia |
1035 |
1035 |
1035 |
156 |
Andorra |
1032 |
1009 |
1084 |
157 |
Dominican
Republic |
1029 |
1029 |
1029 |
158 |
Maldives |
1028 |
1028 |
1028 |
159 |
Tahiti |
1014 |
1014 |
1014 |
160 |
Singapore |
1000 |
1000 |
1000 |
161 |
Fiji |
996 |
996 |
996 |
162 |
Barbados |
996 |
996 |
996 |
163 |
Vanuatu |
996 |
996 |
996 |
164 |
Papua New
Guinea |
991 |
991 |
991 |
165 |
South
Sudan |
983 |
983 |
983 |
166 |
Bermuda |
982 |
982 |
982 |
167 |
Grenada |
974 |
974 |
974 |
168 |
Nepal |
972 |
966 |
986 |
169 |
Belize |
967 |
967 |
967 |
170 |
Mauritius |
965 |
965 |
965 |
171 |
Puerto
Rico |
963 |
963 |
963 |
172 |
St.
Vincent and the Grenadines |
961 |
961 |
961 |
173 |
Guyana |
959 |
959 |
959 |
174 |
Indonesia |
957 |
947 |
972 |
175 |
Moldova |
954 |
940 |
1015 |
176 |
St. Lucia |
953 |
953 |
953 |
177 |
Malta |
952 |
938 |
1013 |
178 |
Montserrat |
951 |
951 |
951 |
179 |
Cambodia |
950 |
936 |
961 |
180 |
Cuba |
947 |
947 |
947 |
181 |
Chad |
935 |
935 |
935 |
182 |
Djibouti |
922 |
913 |
963 |
183 |
Macau |
922 |
922 |
922 |
184 |
Dominica |
917 |
917 |
917 |
185 |
Mongolia |
917 |
917 |
917 |
186 |
Laos |
912 |
912 |
912 |
187 |
Bhutan |
911 |
911 |
911 |
188 |
Bangladesh |
909 |
909 |
909 |
189 |
Liechtenstein |
908 |
898 |
973 |
190 |
Brunei
Darussalam |
904 |
904 |
904 |
191 |
Sao Tomé e
PrÃncipe |
903 |
903 |
903 |
192 |
American
Samoa |
900 |
900 |
900 |
193 |
Samoa |
894 |
894 |
894 |
194 |
Gibraltar |
880 |
867 |
942 |
195 |
Timor-Leste |
879 |
879 |
879 |
196 |
Somalia |
874 |
874 |
874 |
197 |
Cayman
Islands |
874 |
874 |
874 |
198 |
Pakistan |
867 |
867 |
867 |
199 |
Seychelles |
866 |
866 |
866 |
200 |
Tonga |
862 |
862 |
862 |
201 |
Aruba |
860 |
860 |
860 |
202 |
Bahamas |
859 |
859 |
859 |
203 |
Guam |
858 |
848 |
873 |
204 |
Eritrea |
856 |
856 |
856 |
205 |
Sri Lanka |
847 |
847 |
847 |
206 |
Turks and
Caicos Islands |
840 |
840 |
840 |
207 |
US Virgin
Islands |
816 |
816 |
816 |
208 |
British
Virgin Islands |
813 |
813 |
813 |
209 |
San Marino |
802 |
791 |
866 |
210 |
Anguilla |
792 |
792 |
792 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Thanks Ed for great Job. It seems to me that you forgot to include the following matches in the final probable ranking and preview, while you included them in probable results: BHR-HAI, JOR-HAI, JOR-BHR.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, these matches are mentioned in the probable results but with a zero as first number. This indicates that they are not included in this probable ranking.
ReplyDeleteI don't include them yet because they are mentioned in only one of my match sources and not both.
My criterium to include: only if a match is mentioned in both match sources I include the match in the calculation.
Thank you Ed for your quick reply. Have a nice day.
DeleteHi Ed
ReplyDeleteWhat’s the situation regarding FIFA Arab cup next December regarding ranking? Are they counted as official games like other competitions?
As far as I know the matches in the Arab Cup will be treated as friendlies for the ranking calculation, just like other regional tournaments, with I=5 because played outside any International match window. At least we know that the qualifiers for this tournament back in June were treated as simple friendlies.
ReplyDeleteOf course FIFA can make an exception and use a different I-factor for the final tournament in this Cup, but they certainly won't communicate that beforehand, so that remains to be seen once the December ranking is published.
So what are the maximum points can Egypt gain from this tournament?
ReplyDeleteCurrent elo predictions see Egypt start the Arab Cup on 1461,8 points and end the tournament (after a defeat in the quarter final against Morocco) with 1459,9 points.
ReplyDeleteWith friendly status and I-factor = 5 a team can gain some 2-3 points per win in this Cup depending on the strength of the opponent. Further more, a loss in the knock-out stage will cost you points as it's only a friendly tournament.
Can Egypt via their participation in that Arab cup overthrow Nigeria from the 5th place in CAF teams Fifa ranking ?
Delete