FIFA ranking: September 2021 probable ranking

The FIFA September international match window starts next week. All confederations (well, except OFC) are now in full swing qualifying mode for the World Cup next year in Qatar. 

UEFA and CONCACAF have a one day extension to be able to accommodate 3 match days: MDs 4-6 in the UEFA groups and MDs 1-3 in the CONCACAF octogonal. 

CONMEBOL also has to play three match days to catch up their postponed March match days. They even need a two day extension for that. Recent news about the English Premier League clubs refusing to release their players from countries on the COVID-19 red list could, same as in March by the way, pose a threat for especially the South American qualifiers as players from all these countries need a 10-day quarantaine when returning to England. CONMEBOL doesn't have any room in the calendar to postpone their qualifiers any further though, so it's unsure what will happen here.

CAF starts their group stage with MDs 1 and 2.

AFC starts their final group stage with the first two match days. Also the first legs of the two stage 3 play-offs in the qualification of the Asian Cup of Nations 2023 are played, with the second legs played in the October window.

The few remaining countries not playing qualification might engage in friendlies, some in small friendly tournament form.

Here is the probable September 2021 ranking, to be published on September 16th.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 166 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 184 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

pos Sep	team	pts Sep	+/- pos	+/- pts
1	Belgium	1832,33	0	9,99
2	Brazil	1822,05	0	24,38
3	France	1778,91	0	17,14
4	England	1767,94	0	15,11
5	Italy	1747,86	0	3,19
6	Argentina	1714,77	0	0,34
7	Spain	1685,84	0	5,40
8	Mexico	1678,28	1	19,99
9	Portugal	1674,81	-1	13,30
10	USA	1667,41	0	19,66
11	Netherlands	1660,25	1	22,77
12	Denmark	1658,29	-1	16,01
13	Uruguay	1645,23	0	10,60
14	Switzerland	1635,40	0	14,03
15	Colombia	1630,31	0	12,64
16	Germany	1628,38	0	15,09
17	Sweden	1616,93	0	10,14
18	Croatia	1596,00	0	1,64
19	Wales	1576,16	0	8,87
20	Senegal	1555,37	1	9,99
21	Peru	1548,98	1	5,82
22	Japan	1544,93	2	15,48
23	Austria	1542,04	0	6,92
24	Iran	1537,81	2	15,77
25	Tunisia	1526,62	3	11,32
26	Chile	1524,35	-6	-33,46
27	Poland	1519,32	0	3,05
28	Ukraine	1515,07	-3	-7,63
29	Serbia	1511,47	0	4,28
30	Algeria	1511,12	0	12,37
31	Morocco	1502,12	1	14,23
32	Czech Republic	1499,78	-1	7,13
33	Paraguay	1496,51	0	13,02
34	Australia	1493,99	1	16,78
35	Nigeria	1492,65	-1	13,07
36	Korea Republic	1491,42	0	16,46
37	Hungary	1481,61	0	7,25
38	Russia	1475,54	3	13,30
39	Slovakia	1475,08	-1	7,68
40	Turkey	1467,84	-1	3,93
41	Qatar	1455,75	1	0,52
42	Costa Rica	1451,38	2	1,59
43	Norway	1449,56	0	-0,56
44	Egypt	1434,89	2	2,26
45	Venezuela	1434,44	-5	-28,86
46	Iceland	1433,75	7	15,27
47	Republic of Ireland	1430,79	0	1,35
48	Romania	1427,62	-3	-12,08
49	Ghana	1423,74	3	3,13
50	Cote d'Ivoire	1422,76	7	19,86
51	Greece	1421,90	-3	-5,14
52	Northern Ireland	1417,67	-1	-4,62
53	Canada	1415,94	6	16,59
54	Ecuador	1415,36	1	10,10
55	Jamaica	1414,29	-5	-8,77
56	Scotland	1410,93	-7	-13,84
57	Finland	1407,08	-1	3,16
58	Cameroon	1404,76	-4	-5,89
59	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1403,22	-1	1,65
60	Mali	1396,60	0	3,96
61	Saudi Arabia	1393,26	0	7,23
62	Burkina Faso	1381,32	0	-2,54
63	Congo DR	1377,09	2	3,93
64	United Arab Emirates	1370,04	4	7,74
64	Slovenia	1370,04	2	-1,21
66	Honduras	1359,80	-3	-17,99
67	El Salvador	1357,53	-3	-17,90
68	Montenegro	1353,51	-1	-9,52
69	North Macedonia	1345,18	3	2,26
70	Albania	1343,96	-1	-15,87
71	Bulgaria	1337,66	4	2,83
72	Iraq	1336,60	-2	-17,91
73	South Africa	1336,10	0	-1,67
74	China PR	1335,05	-3	-17,63
75	Guinea	1329,70	1	-0,09
76	Cape Verde Islands	1326,42	1	-0,69
77	Panama	1321,68	-3	-13,17
78	Curacao	1310,40	0	0
79	Oman	1299,91	0	-5,10
80	Israel	1298,03	1	9,81
81	Syria	1297,05	-1	-5,70
82	Uzbekistan	1284,42	1	0
83	Uganda	1283,11	1	0,97
84	Benin	1278,89	2	1,50
85	Gabon	1278,84	0	0,74
86	Bolivia	1271,37	-4	-14,57
87	Georgia	1269,70	4	5,64
88	Haiti	1268,38	2	0
89	Zambia	1267,94	-2	-8,20
90	Armenia	1262,78	-2	-10,89
91	Belarus	1254,81	-2	-15,94
92	Bahrain	1251,29	2	0
93	Congo	1247,81	0	-8,07
94	Jordan	1245,31	1	0
95	Vietnam	1244,09	-3	-16,76
96	Luxembourg	1239,50	0	0,91
97	Madagascar	1235,64	0	-2,60
98	Mauritania	1225,32	2	-1,82
99	Kyrgyzstan	1223,40	2	0
100	Lebanon	1221,60	-2	-16,38
101	Palestine	1216,25	1	0
102	Cyprus	1214,91	-3	-20,39
103	Trinidad and Tobago	1207,94	0	0
104	Kenya	1205,19	0	-0,07
105	India	1186,37	0	6,16
106	Sierra Leone	1178,17	0	0
107	Zimbabwe	1173,32	1	1,44
108	Namibia	1172,62	-1	0,25
109	Korea DPR	1169,96	2	0,00
110	Estonia	1166,87	0	-4,02
111	Faroe Islands	1160,39	3	-5,04
112	Mozambique	1158,89	1	-7,49
113	Tajikistan	1157,77	3	0
114	Niger	1156,27	3	-0,03
115	Sudan	1155,51	6	7,64
116	New Zealand	1149,43	3	0
117	Guinea-Bissau	1149,40	-8	-21,79
118	Thailand	1148,63	2	0
119	Malawi	1147,01	-1	-6,49
120	Azerbaijan	1146,08	-8	-20,36
121	Angola	1142,82	5	6,94
122	Kosovo	1139,76	-7	-19,26
123	Guatemala	1139,12	2	0
124	Libya	1137,74	-2	-9,93
125	Philippines	1131,93	3	0
126	Antigua and Barbuda	1131,08	3	0
127	Rwanda	1129,37	0	-4,87
128	Kazakhstan	1126,37	-4	-18,04
129	Central African Republic	1124,04	-6	-23,05
130	Turkmenistan	1117,60	0	0
131	Comoros	1104,45	2	0
132	Equatorial Guinea	1103,90	0	-1,30
133	Togo	1103,45	-2	-2,17
134	Tanzania	1090,93	1	-2,83
135	Lithuania	1082,04	-1	-14,52
136	Latvia	1079,54	0	-4,03
137	St. Kitts and Nevis	1077,76	1	0
138	Suriname	1077,57	1	0
139	Ethiopia	1076,50	-2	-2,91
140	Burundi	1075,64	0	0
141	Solomon Islands	1072,78	0	0
142	Kuwait	1067,44	0	0
143	Nicaragua	1063,60	0	0
144	Liberia	1060,64	6	10,67
145	Lesotho	1057,62	-1	0
146	Myanmar	1057,44	-1	0
147	Eswatini	1054,14	-1	0
148	Hong Kong	1053,39	-1	0
149	Gambia	1053,18	-1	0
150	Botswana	1051,59	-1	0
151	Yemen	1046,26	1	0
152	Afghanistan	1045,34	1	0
153	Malaysia	1040,81	1	0
154	New Caledonia	1035,12	1	0
155	Andorra	1033,60	1	1,96
156	Chinese Taipei	1031,72	-5	-14,62
157	Dominican Republic	1029,42	0	0
158	Maldives	1028,30	0	0
159	Tahiti	1014,27	0	0
160	Singapore	1000,35	0	0
161	Fiji	996,27	0	0
162	Barbados	995,94	0	0
163	Vanuatu	995,62	0	0
164	Papua New Guinea	990,55	0	0
165	South Sudan	982,84	0	0
166	Bermuda	982,43	0	0
167	Grenada	974,03	0	0
168	Indonesia	971,67	6	14,62
169	Belize	967,42	0	0
170	Nepal	966,03	-2	-6,16
171	Mauritius	964,94	-1	0
172	Puerto Rico	962,77	-1	0
173	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	960,71	-1	0
174	Guyana	958,87	-1	0
175	St. Lucia	953,45	1	0
176	Malta	950,97	1	-1,03
177	Montserrat	950,71	1	0
178	Cambodia	948,08	1	-2,18
179	Cuba	946,86	1	0
180	Moldova	940,30	-5	-13,85
181	Chad	935,00	0	0
182	Macau	922,10	1	0
183	Dominica	916,72	1	0
184	Mongolia	916,68	1	0
185	Djibouti	912,57	-3	-9,80
186	Laos	912,07	0	0
187	Bhutan	910,96	0	0
188	Bangladesh	909,11	0	0
189	Brunei Darussalam	903,90	1	0
190	Sao Tomé e Príncipe	903,31	1	0
191	American Samoa	900,27	1	0
192	Liechtenstein	898,01	-3	-9,65
193	Samoa	894,26	0	0
194	Timor-Leste	879,43	1	0
195	Somalia	873,71	1	0
196	Cayman Islands	873,64	1	0
197	Gibraltar	867,69	-3	-12,58
198	Pakistan	866,81	0	0
199	Seychelles	865,69	0	0
200	Tonga	861,81	0	0
201	Guam	860,67	2	2,18
202	Aruba	859,97	-1	0
203	Bahamas	858,50	-1	0
204	Eritrea	855,56	0	0
205	Sri Lanka	846,54	0	0
206	Turks and Caicos Islands	839,84	0	0
207	US Virgin Islands	816,13	0	0
208	British Virgin Islands	812,94	0	0
209	Anguilla	792,34	1	0
210	San Marino	790,95	-1	-11,48

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.