FIFA ranking: October 2021 probable ranking

The FIFA October international match window starts October 4th. All confederations except OFC are still in full swing qualifying mode for the World Cup next year in Qatar. 

CONMEBOL and CONCACAF have a resp. two and one day extension to be able to accommodate 3 match days. CONCACAF plays MDs 4-6 in the octogonal. In South America the postponed match day 5 from March is played, besides MDs 11 and 12.

A big question mark hangs above the suspended match Brazil - Argentina from September: where is the room in the match calendar to resume/replay this match ?

In Europe also the Nations League 2021 Finals will be played in Italy with the four group winners of league A: France, Italy, Belgium and Spain. 

CAF and AFC continue their qualification group stage with MDs 3 and 4.

In Asia also the home-and-away stage 3 play-offs in the qualification of the Asian Cup of Nations 2023 are played between Indonesia and Chinese Taipei and between Guam and Cambodia. Both winners qualify for the final qualification round: a group stage with 6 groups of 4 teams, starting in January next year and drawn this October. The 6 group winners and 5 best runners-up qualify for the continental showpiece, together with the 12 teams (+ Qatar) already qualified for the current final Asian World Cup qualification round.

Then there is also a regional championship played in South Asia.

And big news: prime OFC-team New Zealand will participate in a friendly 3 team tournament in Bahrain with Curacao and the host. Those will be their first official matches in almost two years.

Here is the probable October 2021 ranking, to be published on October 21st.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 157 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 162 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

pos Oct	team	pts Oct	+/- pos	+/- pts
1	Belgium	1846,94	0	14,61
2	Brazil	1832,61	0	20,88
3	England	1763,10	0	7,66
4	France	1758,64	0	4,33
5	Argentina	1751,55	1	26,24
6	Italy	1749,03	-1	13,30
7	Mexico	1684,72	2	18,53
8	Portugal	1681,73	-1	6,83
9	Spain	1675,60	-1	1,92
10	Denmark	1668,98	0	10,49
11	USA	1664,11	2	21,01
12	Netherlands	1652,01	-1	3,81
13	Germany	1642,47	1	14,67
14	Uruguay	1638,16	-2	-7,26
15	Switzerland	1633,56	0	10,83
16	Croatia	1621,34	1	13,09
17	Sweden	1618,69	1	12,66
18	Colombia	1607,30	-2	-11,10
19	Senegal	1564,95	1	9,58
20	Peru	1558,79	1	10,01
21	Iran	1557,52	1	19,44
22	Wales	1554,27	-3	-9,32
23	Chile	1545,68	0	9,15
24	Poland	1541,66	0	9,84
25	Tunisia	1537,80	0	10,93
26	Japan	1529,90	0	9,44
27	Ukraine	1527,40	0	7,33
28	Serbia	1527,34	0	11,37
29	Czech Republic	1515,73	2	20,95
30	Algeria	1509,04	0	10,42
31	Morocco	1504,81	2	11,58
32	Nigeria	1502,38	2	10,01
33	Austria	1501,09	-4	-3,73
34	Australia	1490,18	-2	-3,81
35	Russia	1484,95	2	9,52
36	Korea Republic	1476,60	0	-2,81
37	Paraguay	1473,81	-2	-10,50
38	Norway	1471,62	1	9,86
39	Hungary	1461,15	1	4,22
40	Turkey	1460,53	1	5,09
41	Romania	1451,49	1	-0,31
42	Scotland	1451,37	3	15,73
43	Egypt	1447,85	5	13,23
44	Qatar	1442,73	-1	-3,10
45	Slovakia	1441,66	-7	-20,93
46	Costa Rica	1439,77	-2	1,48
47	Greece	1434,83	-1	-0,60
48	Canada	1432,33	3	16,10
49	Republic of Ireland	1425,59	1	6,89
50	Northern Ireland	1425,30	-3	-9,76
51	Ghana	1424,87	2	13,57
52	Cote d'Ivoire	1424,12	2	13,56
53	Saudi Arabia	1420,01	3	13,67
54	Venezuela	1419,29	-5	-14,85
55	Cameroon	1418,21	3	13,75
56	Finland	1416,22	-1	9,30
57	Ecuador	1416,15	-5	1,06
58	Mali	1412,39	3	15,87
59	Iceland	1409,86	1	12,54
60	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1402,13	-3	-3,17
61	Burkina Faso	1400,56	1	6,74
62	Honduras	1380,08	1	8,47
63	Slovenia	1377,46	1	7,00
64	Jamaica	1370,24	-5	-32,15
65	Congo DR	1370,11	2	4,94
66	Bulgaria	1362,03	4	8,10
67	South Africa	1361,97	6	13,37
68	Iraq	1358,40	4	9,57
69	Albania	1349,87	-3	-18,86
70	United Arab Emirates	1349,72	-1	-8,12
71	El Salvador	1349,60	-6	-20,13
72	Montenegro	1346,19	-1	-6,64
73	North Macedonia	1343,19	1	-2,28
74	Panama	1341,93	-6	-16,84
75	China PR	1333,90	0	-0,62
76	Guinea	1329,83	0	3,74
77	Cape Verde Islands	1327,66	0	13,47
78	Oman	1315,38	0	3,56
79	Israel	1305,76	1	-4,57
80	Curacao	1304,13	-1	-6,27
81	Benin	1295,37	1	4,56
82	Syria	1286,92	-1	-9,83
83	Uganda	1285,48	3	5,63
84	Zambia	1285,24	1	5,05
85	Uzbekistan	1285,08	-1	2,81
86	Gabon	1272,33	2	5,72
87	Haiti	1268,05	0	0
88	Bahrain	1260,87	3	9,56
89	Bolivia	1260,02	-6	-23,63
90	Congo	1253,16	2	5,35
91	Jordan	1248,77	2	3,13
92	Belarus	1246,09	-2	-8,72
93	Armenia	1244,93	-4	-17,47
94	Luxembourg	1234,13	0	-10,42
95	Kyrgyzstan	1230,60	3	0
96	Lebanon	1225,37	1	-8,24
97	Vietnam	1222,92	-2	-21,17
98	Georgia	1218,88	-2	-21,99
99	Palestine	1211,32	0	0
100	Trinidad and Tobago	1207,94	1	0
101	Madagascar	1206,26	-1	-4,93
102	Cyprus	1205,42	1	2,77
103	India	1192,51	4	11,06
104	Mauritania	1189,67	0	-10,93
105	Kenya	1189,24	-3	-15,88
106	Kosovo	1186,19	3	9,91
107	Sierra Leone	1177,71	1	0
108	Namibia	1175,54	-2	-9,58
109	Guinea-Bissau	1175,03	-4	-11,58
110	Estonia	1171,53	1	-2,91
111	Korea DPR	1169,96	1	0
112	Libya	1161,71	-2	-13,23
113	Tajikistan	1157,77	5	0
114	Faroe Islands	1148,94	0	-11,45
115	Thailand	1148,63	7	0
116	Zimbabwe	1147,34	-3	-13,57
117	New Zealand	1146,89	4	-2,54
118	Azerbaijan	1146,87	-1	-11,59
119	Malawi	1146,25	-4	-13,56
120	Niger	1145,75	-1	-10,42
121	Mozambique	1144,85	-5	-13,74
122	Guatemala	1141,94	1	3,54
123	Kazakhstan	1137,70	-3	-13,48
124	Philippines	1131,93	1	0
125	Antigua and Barbuda	1131,08	1	0
126	Sudan	1127,17	1	-3,74
127	Central African Republic	1126,25	-3	-10,00
128	Rwanda	1123,74	0	-5,63
129	Turkmenistan	1117,60	1	0
130	Angola	1112,40	-1	-5,72
131	Comoros	1112,00	2	0
132	Equatorial Guinea	1111,07	-1	-5,05
133	Tanzania	1110,80	-1	-4,57
134	Togo	1085,59	2	-5,36
135	Latvia	1084,88	0	-7,57
136	Ethiopia	1079,37	-2	-13,37
137	St. Kitts and Nevis	1077,76	1	0
138	Suriname	1077,57	1	0
139	Lithuania	1073,03	-2	-9,17
140	Solomon Islands	1072,78	0	0
141	Burundi	1070,95	0	0
142	Kuwait	1065,31	0	0
143	Nicaragua	1064,32	0	0
144	Lesotho	1057,62	1	0
145	Myanmar	1057,44	1	0
146	Eswatini	1054,14	1	0
147	Hong Kong	1053,39	1	0
148	Gambia	1053,18	1	0
149	Botswana	1051,59	1	0
150	Liberia	1047,46	-6	-13,47
151	Yemen	1046,26	1	0
152	Afghanistan	1045,34	1	0
153	Andorra	1038,88	3	5,61
155	New Caledonia	1035,12	0	0
156	Malaysia	1034,87	-2	-5,94
154	Maldives	1035,77	4	7,47
157	Dominican Republic	1029,42	0	0
158	Chinese Taipei	1017,78	-7	-28,56
159	Tahiti	1014,27	0	0
160	Singapore	1000,35	0	0
161	Fiji	996,27	0	0
162	Barbados	995,94	0	0
163	Vanuatu	995,62	0	0
164	Papua New Guinea	990,55	0	0
165	Indonesia	985,61	10	28,56
166	South Sudan	982,84	-1	0
167	Bermuda	982,43	-1	0
168	Grenada	974,03	-1	0
169	Nepal	969,14	-1	-1,81
170	Belize	967,42	-1	0
171	Mauritius	964,94	-1	0
172	Puerto Rico	962,77	0	0
173	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	960,71	0	0
174	Guyana	958,87	0	0
175	Cambodia	958,50	3	8,24
176	St. Lucia	953,45	0	0
177	Malta	951,71	-6	-11,45
178	Montserrat	950,71	-1	0
179	Cuba	946,86	0	0
180	Chad	935,00	1	0
181	Moldova	933,81	-1	-6,49
182	Macau	922,10	0	0
183	Dominica	916,72	0	0
184	Mongolia	916,68	0	0
185	Laos	912,07	1	0
186	Bhutan	910,96	1	0
187	Djibouti	905,83	-2	-6,74
188	Brunei Darussalam	903,90	2	0
189	Liechtenstein	903,76	-1	-7,18
190	Sao Tomé e Príncipe	903,31	1	0
192	American Samoa	900,27	0	0
191	Bangladesh	900,43	-2	-6,41
193	Samoa	894,26	0	0
194	Timor-Leste	879,43	0	0
195	Somalia	873,71	0	0
196	Cayman Islands	873,64	0	0
197	Pakistan	866,81	1	0
198	Gibraltar	863,17	-1	-4,53
199	Seychelles	862,84	0	0
200	Tonga	861,81	0	0
201	Aruba	859,22	0	-0,75
202	Bahamas	858,50	0	0
203	Eritrea	855,56	1	0
204	Guam	850,25	-1	-8,24
205	Turks and Caicos Islands	839,84	1	0
206	Sri Lanka	835,18	-1	-11,36
207	US Virgin Islands	816,13	0	0
208	British Virgin Islands	812,94	0	0
209	Anguilla	792,34	0	0
210	San Marino	782,71	0	-8,46

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.