World Cup qualification simulations (September 2021)

All confederations except OFC are now busy with their main group qualification stage.

• UEFA finish their group stage in November. The 10 group winners qualify. The play-offs between the 10 group runners-up and the best 2 group winners from the Nations League 2020-2021 (finished third or lower in their group) for the remaining 3 berths are scheduled for March 2022, to be played as 3 knock-out paths with each path consisting of 2 single semi-finals and a single final.
• CAF finish their group stage in November. The 10 group winners qualify for stage 3: 5 home-and-away play-offs, to be played in March 2022. The 5 winners of stage 3 qualify. In January 2022 the postponed African Cup of Nations 2021 will be played in Cameroon. The match schedule for this tournament is known and included in these simulations.
• CONMEBOL finish their group stage in March. Top 4 qualifies, number 5 goes to the interconfederational play-offs, to be staged in the second week of the June 2022 window. The date for the draw of the pairing of confederations in these IPO's is yet unknown.
• CONCACAF finish their group stage in March. Top 3 qualifies, number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs.
• AFC finish their group stage in March. Numbers 1 and 2 of both groups qualify, numbers 3 of both groups play a single play-off in the first week of the June 2022 window to determine the AFC number 5, which goes to the interconfederational play-offs.
• OFC's qualification format is still unknown. They will probably start (and finish) their qualification in the January 2022 window. Their final top dog goes to the interconfederational play-offs.

The draw for the groups in the final tournament in Qatar is currently scheduled to take place in April 2022, so after all group stages are finished but before all four participants in the IPO's are known. This draw will be completely seeded based on the FIFA ranking, with Qatar as host automatically placed in pot 1. It is yet unclear which ranking will be used for the seeding and even if it's possible to perform the draw in April while 2 berths are still vacant. 

FIFA could apply the principle that the IPO-winners are seeded on the highest ranked team in each IPO, but for that the confederation pairing needs to be known and the main drawback of this approach is that in the IPO's highly ranked teams like Colombia or Japan might participate, so that the winner of an IPO might be seeded for the draw in pot 2 for instance, while the eventual winner of the IPO might be the other lower ranked team, possibly even a 'pot 4' team.

Another option is to perform the draw after the June 2022 window. Then all 32 qualifiers are known, but maybe FIFA needs the seven months time between April and the start of the World Cup in November for the organisation and production of all merchandise and June will simply be too late for them. Again, FIFA has currently scheduled the draw in April while it already is known for at least a year that the IPO's could only be scheduled in June 2022.

Which seeding ranking to use for the draw ? Logically that will be the April 2022 ranking after the qualification group matches for all confederations are finished. This implies however that the European and African play-offs also will be included. In comparison, last time around for the seeding of the draw for Russia 2018 FIFA used the ranking of October 2017, this was the ranking without the European play-offs, the IPO's and the final group matches in Africa which were all played in November 2017.

Also in case of a postponed draw in June, still the April ranking could be used to seed the teams of course.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the UEFA Nations League Finals next month, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).

UEFA

First the UEFA Nations League Final Four, played in October in Italy. In the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in May:

to win a semi-final
Italy	82,08				12,07
Belgium	73,33				17,68
France	26,67				-17,68
Spain	17,92				-12,07

to win the UNL
Italy	58,87				20,43
Belgium	27,57				-1,38
France	8,65				-11,82
Spain	4,91				-7,23

Then the qualification for the World Cup. First the group stage. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Portugal	90,86	9,14	0,00	0,00	0,00
Serbia	9,13	89,41	1,46	0,00	0,00
Luxembourg	0,01	1,45	65,52	30,89	2,13
Republic of Ireland	0,00	0,00	25,14	48,82	26,04
Azerbaijan	0,00	0,00	7,88	20,29	71,83
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Spain	62,06	35,02	2,92	0,00	0,00
Sweden	36,30	57,06	6,55	0,09	0,00
Greece	1,64	7,84	81,05	8,50	0,97
Kosovo	0,00	0,08	7,59	65,00	27,33
Georgia	0,00	0,00	1,89	26,41	71,70
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Italy	83,05	16,79	0,16	0,00	0,00
Switzerland	16,85	80,28	2,69	0,18	0,00
Northern Ireland	0,10	2,39	61,27	35,46	0,78
Bulgaria	0,00	0,54	35,75	62,65	1,06
Lithuania	0,00	0,00	0,13	1,71	98,16
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
France	97,62	2,38	0,00	0,00	0,00
Ukraine	0,04	41,46	34,03	22,73	1,74
Finland	2,25	36,83	35,73	20,19	5,00
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,09	19,07	26,18	39,55	15,11
Kazakhstan	0,00	0,26	4,06	17,53	78,15
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Belgium	99,93	0,07	0,00	0,00	0,00
Czech Republic	0,00	59,95	39,71	0,34	0,00
Wales	0,07	39,87	59,08	0,98	0,00
Belarus	0,00	0,11	1,09	66,26	32,54
Estonia	0,00	0,00	0,12	32,42	67,46
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Denmark	99,95	0,05	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Scotland	0,04	57,68	32,25	10,03	0,00	0,00
Israel	0,01	39,46	46,69	13,83	0,01	0,00
Austria	0,00	2,81	21,04	75,86	0,29	0,00
Faroe Islands	0,00	0,00	0,02	0,27	94,68	5,03
Moldova	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	5,02	94,97
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Netherlands	84,01	13,62	2,35	0,02	0,00	0,00
Norway	10,41	41,47	45,97	2,15	0,00	0,00
Turkey	5,54	44,46	47,99	2,00	0,01	0,00
Montenegro	0,04	0,45	3,68	91,04	4,79	0,00
Latvia	0,00	0,00	0,01	4,77	93,18	2,04
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,02	2,02	97,96
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Croatia	79,24	19,39	1,26	0,11	0,00	0,00
Russia	20,04	68,87	9,62	1,47	0,00	0,00
Slovakia	0,68	7,71	49,92	39,64	1,98	0,07
Slovenia	0,04	4,01	38,56	52,97	3,81	0,61
Cyprus	0,00	0,01	0,03	1,80	51,00	47,16
Malta	0,00	0,01	0,61	4,01	43,21	52,16
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
England	99,80	0,19	0,01	0,00	0,00	0,00
Poland	0,18	82,04	12,68	5,10	0,00	0,00
Hungary	0,01	8,63	45,98	45,38	0,00	0,00
Albania	0,01	9,14	41,33	49,52	0,00	0,00
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	98,73	1,27
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	1,27	98,73
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Germany	98,18	1,64	0,17	0,01	0,00	0,00
Romania	1,27	59,38	27,99	10,00	1,36	0,00
Armenia	0,44	19,39	31,86	40,22	8,09	0,00
North Macedonia	0,11	18,52	36,23	35,22	9,92	0,00
Iceland	0,00	1,07	3,75	14,55	80,25	0,38
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,38	99,62

Then the play-offs. Teams can qualify for the play-offs as group runner-up (column 'nr2') or as one of the two best UNL group winners not already qualified (column 'via UNL'). In column 'PO' you see the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. 

The 6 best runners-up are seeded in the draw for the 6 semi-finals in the 3 paths. In columns 'seeded' and 'unseeded' you will find the respective probabilities and finally in column '%seeded' the chance to be seeded, given the team participates in the play-offs.

team	PO	nr2	via UNL	seeded	unseeded	%seeded
Wales	99,93	39,87	60,06	17,35	82,58	17,36
Czech Republic	98,77	59,95	38,82	1,36	97,41	1,38
Austria	98,26	2,81	95,45	1,57	96,69	1,60
Serbia	89,41	89,41	0,00	39,20	50,21	43,84
Poland	82,04	82,04	0,00	81,76	0,28	99,66
Switzerland	80,28	80,28	0,00	29,04	51,24	36,17
Russia	68,87	68,87	0,00	62,88	5,99	91,30
Romania	59,38	59,38	0,00	45,83	13,55	77,18
Scotland	57,68	57,68	0,00	54,83	2,85	95,06
Sweden	57,06	57,06	0,00	25,06	32,00	43,92
Turkey	44,46	44,46	0,00	43,75	0,71	98,40
Norway	41,47	41,47	0,00	40,93	0,54	98,70
Ukraine	41,46	41,46	0,00	5,68	35,78	13,70
Israel	39,46	39,46	0,00	33,20	6,26	84,14
Spain	37,94	35,02	2,92	6,51	31,43	17,16
Finland	36,83	36,83	0,00	0,61	36,22	1,66
Croatia	19,39	19,39	0,00	19,07	0,32	98,35
Armenia	19,39	19,39	0,00	18,44	0,95	95,10
Bosnia-Herzegovina	19,07	19,07	0,00	0,57	18,50	2,99
North Macedonia	18,52	18,52	0,00	12,50	6,02	67,49
Italy	16,85	16,79	0,06	5,45	11,40	32,34
Netherlands	13,62	13,62	0,00	13,60	0,02	99,85
Hungary	11,05	8,63	2,42	8,44	2,61	76,38
Portugal	9,14	9,14	0,00	6,64	2,50	72,65
Albania	9,14	9,14	0,00	8,92	0,22	97,59
Greece	7,84	7,84	0,00	3,12	4,72	39,80
Slovakia	7,71	7,71	0,00	7,64	0,07	99,09
Slovenia	4,27	4,01	0,26	3,40	0,87	79,63
Northern Ireland	2,39	2,39	0,00	0,07	2,32	2,93
France	2,38	2,38	0,00	0,17	2,21	7,14
Germany	1,64	1,64	0,00	1,64	0,00	100,00
Luxembourg	1,45	1,45	0,00	0,04	1,41	2,76
Iceland	1,07	1,07	0,00	0,03	1,04	2,80
Bulgaria	0,54	0,54	0,00	0,00	0,54	0,00
Montenegro	0,46	0,45	0,01	0,42	0,04	91,30
Kazakhstan	0,26	0,26	0,00	0,00	0,26	0,00
England	0,19	0,19	0,00	0,19	0,00	100,00
Belarus	0,11	0,11	0,00	0,00	0,11	0,00
Kosovo	0,08	0,08	0,00	0,00	0,08	0,00
Belgium	0,07	0,07	0,00	0,03	0,04	42,86
Denmark	0,05	0,05	0,00	0,05	0,00	100,00
Cyprus	0,01	0,01	0,00	0,01	0,00	100,00
Malta	0,01	0,01	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,00
Republic of Ireland	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Georgia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Lithuania	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Azerbaijan	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Faroe Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Latvia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Estonia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Moldova	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00

The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for the play-offs. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in May (after MD3).

Poland	58,92		[71,82]		20,05
Switzerland	53,94		[67,19]		9,55
Serbia	44,22		[49,46]		7,16
Wales	42,49		[42,52]		5,47
Russia	40,98		[59,50]		19,79
Czech Republic	40,69		[41,20]		16,10
Sweden	34,26		[60,04]		8,50
Scotland	28,21		[48,91]		12,72
Norway	27,45		[66,19]		11,50
Spain	27,37		[72,14]		5,65
Turkey	26,55		[59,72]		-8,59
Romania	25,48		[42,91]		18,18
Austria	20,09		[20,45]		-24,50
Israel	17,58		[44,55]		12,22
Ukraine	17,44		[42,06]		-5,25
Croatia	14,31		[73,80]		-4,59
Italy	13,41		[79,58]		-6,16
Netherlands	11,31		[83,04]		-13,67
Finland	9,04		[24,55]		2,16
Portugal	7,48		[81,84]		-1,99
Armenia	6,86		[35,38]		-2,58
Hungary	6,04		[54,66]		-23,79
North Macedonia	5,30		[28,62]		-7,55
Slovakia	4,15		[53,83]		-5,85
Bosnia-Herzegovina	3,73		[19,56]		0,79
Albania	3,49		[38,18]		0,86
Greece	3,18		[40,56]		0,61
France	1,86		[78,15]		-1,56
Slovenia	1,68		[39,34]		-7,14
Germany	1,28		[78,05]		-9,34
Northern Ireland	0,40		[16,74]		-0,16
England	0,16		[84,21]		-9,83
Iceland	0,15		[14,02]		-5,09
Luxembourg	0,15		[10,34]		0,09
Montenegro	0,14		[30,43]		-0,88
Belgium	0,07		[100,00]		-9,73
Denmark	0,05		[100,00]		-2,33
Bulgaria	0,04		[7,41]		0,02
Kosovo	0,03		[37,50]		-0,01
Belarus	0,01		[9,09]		-0,23
Kazakhstan	0,01		[3,85]		-0,03
Republic of Ireland	0,00		[0,00]		-0,27
Cyprus	0,00		[0,00]		-0,19
Georgia	0,00		[0,00]		-0,09
Azerbaijan	0,00		[0,00]		-0,01
Lithuania	0,00		[0,00]		-0,01
Latvia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Estonia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00

The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in May (after MD3).

Switzerland	35,31		[65,46]		8,76
Poland	28,11		[47,71]		8,36
Wales	23,78		[55,97]		2,94
Czech Republic	22,55		[55,42]		11,19
Serbia	21,51		[48,64]		3,98
Sweden	20,42		[59,60]		6,44
Spain	20,09		[73,40]		4,26
Russia	16,53		[40,34]		8,26
Norway	12,11		[44,12]		5,33
Turkey	10,78		[40,60]		-5,74
Italy	10,57		[78,82]		-3,58
Scotland	9,82		[34,81]		4,28
Ukraine	9,11		[52,24]		-3,32
Romania	8,18		[32,10]		5,95
Austria	7,75		[38,58]		-10,99
Croatia	7,43		[51,92]		-1,61
Netherlands	6,95		[61,45]		-9,52
Israel	5,71		[32,48]		4,21
Portugal	5,64		[75,40]		-0,93
Finland	3,92		[43,36]		1,13
Hungary	2,45		[40,56]		-10,46
Armenia	1,73		[25,22]		-0,54
Slovakia	1,51		[36,39]		-1,90
France	1,44		[77,42]		-0,91
Greece	1,38		[43,40]		0,52
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,26		[33,78]		0,17
North Macedonia	1,22		[23,02]		-2,00
Albania	1,04		[29,80]		0,35
Germany	0,73		[57,03]		-5,56
Slovenia	0,51		[30,36]		-2,13
Northern Ireland	0,17		[42,50]		-0,01
England	0,07		[43,75]		-6,27
Belgium	0,05		[71,43]		-7,47
Iceland	0,05		[33,33]		-1,52
Denmark	0,04		[80,00]		-1,33
Luxembourg	0,03		[20,00]		0,03
Montenegro	0,02		[14,29]		-0,18
Kosovo	0,02		[66,67]		0,02
Bulgaria	0,01		[25,00]		0,01
Republic of Ireland	0,00		[0,00]		-0,10
Belarus	0,00		[0,00]		-0,06
Georgia	0,00		[0,00]		-0,03
Cyprus	0,00		[0,00]		-0,02
Lithuania	0,00		[0,00]		-0,01
Azerbaijan	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Estonia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Kazakhstan	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Latvia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00

Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in May (after MD3).

team	nr1	PO	Qtot		diff
Denmark	99,95	0,04	99,99		1,95
Belgium	99,93	0,05	99,98		4,46
England	99,80	0,07	99,87		8,16
France	97,62	1,44	99,06		2,28
Germany	98,18	0,73	98,91		10,84
Portugal	90,86	5,64	96,50		3,24
Italy	83,05	10,57	93,62		4,50
Netherlands	84,01	6,95	90,96		17,22
Croatia	79,24	7,43	86,67		24,95
Spain	62,06	20,09	82,15		-2,41
Sweden	36,30	20,42	56,72		12,75
Switzerland	16,85	35,31	52,16		0,65
Russia	20,04	16,53	36,57		-7,55
Serbia	9,13	21,51	30,64		-0,12
Poland	0,18	28,11	28,29		0,96
Wales	0,07	23,78	23,85		-7,31
Czech Republic	0,00	22,55	22,55		9,56
Norway	10,41	12,11	22,52		6,79
Turkey	5,54	10,78	16,32		-33,79
Scotland	0,04	9,82	9,86		3,08
Romania	1,27	8,18	9,45		5,51
Ukraine	0,04	9,11	9,15		-6,22
Austria	0,00	7,75	7,75		-12,95
Finland	2,25	3,92	6,17		1,05
Israel	0,01	5,71	5,72		4,09
Greece	1,64	1,38	3,02		0,92
Hungary	0,01	2,45	2,46		-17,31
Slovakia	0,68	1,51	2,19		-8,72
Armenia	0,44	1,73	2,17		-7,50
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,09	1,26	1,35		-0,04
North Macedonia	0,11	1,22	1,33		-9,16
Albania	0,01	1,04	1,05		0,17
Slovenia	0,04	0,51	0,55		-5,91
Northern Ireland	0,10	0,17	0,27		0,02
Montenegro	0,04	0,02	0,06		-0,33
Iceland	0,00	0,05	0,05		-3,36
Luxembourg	0,01	0,03	0,04		0,02
Kosovo	0,00	0,02	0,02		-0,01
Bulgaria	0,00	0,01	0,01		0,01
Cyprus	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,17
Republic of Ireland	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,16
Belarus	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,11
Georgia	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,04
Lithuania	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,01
Azerbaijan	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Faroe Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Estonia	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Kazakhstan	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Latvia	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Malta	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Moldova	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00

CAF

First the qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group.

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Algeria	83,67	15,90	0,43	0,00
Burkina Faso	16,16	82,53	1,28	0,03
Niger	0,17	1,56	97,36	0,91
Djibouti	0,00	0,01	0,93	99,06
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tunisia	92,58	6,58	0,73	0,11
Zambia	4,97	58,56	27,81	8,66
Equatorial Guinea	2,03	29,42	46,47	22,08
Mauritania	0,42	5,44	24,99	69,15
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Nigeria	95,39	4,29	0,31	0,01
Liberia	3,00	56,00	33,94	7,06
Cape Verde Islands	1,52	36,49	49,52	12,47
Central African Republic	0,09	3,22	16,23	80,46
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cote d'Ivoire	66,07	28,71	4,64	0,58
Cameroon	30,02	55,28	11,09	3,61
Malawi	3,09	9,93	52,33	34,65
Mozambique	0,82	6,08	31,94	61,16
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Mali	70,54	19,64	7,88	1,94
Uganda	16,87	44,19	24,51	14,43
Kenya	9,62	22,40	42,71	25,27
Rwanda	2,97	13,77	24,90	58,36
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Egypt	68,35	22,78	7,91	0,96
Libya	26,31	47,08	23,14	3,47
Gabon	4,25	22,55	46,77	26,43
Angola	1,09	7,59	22,18	69,14
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
South Africa	44,81	38,92	13,22	3,05
Ghana	45,68	38,14	11,95	4,23
Ethiopia	7,48	16,01	46,11	30,40
Zimbabwe	2,03	6,93	28,72	62,32
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Senegal	95,25	4,38	0,37	0,00
Namibia	4,03	59,07	31,64	5,26
Congo	0,62	29,63	47,73	22,02
Togo	0,10	6,92	20,26	72,72
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Morocco	81,95	13,19	4,52	0,34
Guinea-Bissau	8,23	40,45	41,95	9,37
Guinea	9,40	37,87	34,84	17,89
Sudan	0,42	8,49	18,69	72,40
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Benin	50,60	28,17	17,09	4,14
Congo DR	26,06	36,89	24,23	12,82
Tanzania	21,07	26,56	39,68	12,69
Madagascar	2,27	8,38	19,00	70,35

Then the qualification for the play-off round. The top 5 play-off participants are seeded (based on the November 2021 ranking), the other 5 are unseeded. Below you see the probabilities to qualify as seeded or unseeded, the probability to be seeded given that a team is a group winner and the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. Also in the last column the difference in total qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in April (before MD1).

team	seeded	unseeded	%seeded	total	diff Total
Nigeria	95,34	0,05	99,95	95,39	7,86
Senegal	95,25	0,00	100,00	95,25	0,04
Tunisia	92,58	0,00	100,00	92,58	19,35
Algeria	83,67	0,00	100,00	83,67	0,07
Morocco	81,95	0,00	100,00	81,95	-1,13
Mali	2,22	68,32	3,15	70,54	12,20
Egypt	23,42	44,93	34,26	68,35	-2,26
Cote d'Ivoire	11,88	54,19	17,98	66,07	2,46
Benin	0,02	50,58	0,04	50,60	13,27
Ghana	6,10	39,58	13,35	45,68	-18,16
South Africa	0,19	44,62	0,42	44,81	22,55
Cameroon	4,68	25,34	15,59	30,02	-2,27
Libya	0,00	26,31	0,00	26,31	19,83
Congo DR	0,11	25,95	0,42	26,06	-14,97
Tanzania	0,00	21,07	0,00	21,07	15,03
Uganda	0,02	16,85	0,12	16,87	-7,90
Burkina Faso	2,48	13,68	15,35	16,16	0,05
Kenya	0,00	9,62	0,00	9,62	-3,16
Guinea	0,06	9,34	0,64	9,40	0,42
Guinea-Bissau	0,00	8,23	0,00	8,23	5,03
Ethiopia	0,00	7,48	0,00	7,48	3,49
Zambia	0,02	4,95	0,40	4,97	-13,66
Gabon	0,00	4,25	0,00	4,25	-11,30
Namibia	0,00	4,03	0,00	4,03	2,04
Malawi	0,00	3,09	0,00	3,09	-0,32
Liberia	0,00	3,00	0,00	3,00	1,12
Rwanda	0,00	2,97	0,00	2,97	-1,14
Madagascar	0,00	2,27	0,00	2,27	-13,33
Zimbabwe	0,00	2,03	0,00	2,03	-7,88
Equatorial Guinea	0,00	2,03	0,00	2,03	-1,44
Cape Verde Islands	0,01	1,51	0,66	1,52	-7,66
Angola	0,00	1,09	0,00	1,09	-6,27
Mozambique	0,00	0,82	0,00	0,82	0,13
Congo	0,00	0,62	0,00	0,62	-1,57
Sudan	0,00	0,42	0,00	0,42	-4,32
Mauritania	0,00	0,42	0,00	0,42	-4,25
Niger	0,00	0,17	0,00	0,17	-0,12
Togo	0,00	0,10	0,00	0,10	-0,51
Central African Republic	0,00	0,09	0,00	0,09	-1,32
Djibouti	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00

I've simulated the play-off round by determining the 5 seeds and 5 unseeds in each simulation and perform a random draw to generate the 5 play-off pairings. Also which team in each pairing plays home in the first leg is result of a random draw.

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 3) and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in April (before MD1):

team	qualify				diff Q
Senegal	65,82		[69,10]		-6,74
Algeria	63,64		[76,06]		-1,96
Nigeria	62,38		[65,39]		0,31
Tunisia	60,40		[65,24]		11,80
Morocco	55,28		[67,46]		-2,29
Cote d'Ivoire	32,33		[48,93]		1,47
Egypt	31,59		[46,22]		-2,34
Mali	24,37		[34,55]		3,81
Ghana	19,76		[43,26]		-8,46
South Africa	14,84		[33,12]		8,46
Cameroon	12,96		[43,17]		0,33
Benin	12,78		[25,26]		4,19
Congo DR	7,45		[28,59]		-2,98
Burkina Faso	6,94		[42,95]		-0,50
Libya	5,17		[19,65]		4,09
Uganda	4,63		[27,45]		-1,07
Tanzania	3,42		[16,23]		2,75
Guinea	2,72		[28,94]		0,54
Kenya	2,31		[24,01]		0,05
Guinea-Bissau	1,92		[23,33]		1,39
Ethiopia	1,45		[19,39]		0,86
Zambia	1,39		[27,97]		-3,97
Gabon	1,14		[26,82]		-2,29
Namibia	1,06		[26,30]		0,71
Liberia	0,66		[22,00]		0,33
Rwanda	0,56		[18,86]		0,07
Madagascar	0,46		[20,26]		-1,97
Equatorial Guinea	0,44		[21,67]		-0,10
Malawi	0,44		[14,24]		-0,08
Zimbabwe	0,41		[20,20]		-1,68
Cape Verde Islands	0,38		[25,00]		-1,83
Angola	0,29		[26,61]		-0,96
Congo	0,18		[29,03]		-0,18
Mauritania	0,13		[30,95]		-0,80
Sudan	0,11		[26,19]		-0,77
Mozambique	0,11		[13,41]		0,01
Niger	0,04		[23,53]		0,02
Central African Republic	0,02		[22,22]		-0,17
Togo	0,02		[20,00]		-0,05
Djibouti	0,00		[0,00]		0,00

CONMEBOL

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 5. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points,  compared to the previous simulations in January (after MD4):

team	WC	diff		IPO	diff
Brazil	99,98	0,94		0,01	-0,62
Argentina	98,59	12,02		1,06	-5,77
Uruguay	78,12	6,50		12,63	0,64
Colombia	61,51	24,32		20,67	1,92
Ecuador	31,46	-17,83		24,97	8,02
Paraguay	15,16	-0,61		17,07	5,04
Peru	10,09	1,49		13,34	5,07
Chile	4,52	-13,37		8,64	-4,51
Venezuela	0,41	-13,30		0,98	-9,87
Bolivia	0,16	-0,16		0,63	0,08

CONCACAF

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th
Mexico	60,45	27,04	9,47	2,20	0,61	0,21	0,02	0,00
USA	30,51	44,00	17,43	5,52	1,76	0,54	0,22	0,02
Canada	7,48	19,32	36,20	18,88	9,73	5,22	2,32	0,85
Panama	1,04	4,88	14,65	25,53	22,05	15,55	10,91	5,39
Costa Rica	0,22	1,80	8,42	15,58	20,39	21,13	17,99	14,47
Honduras	0,16	1,74	7,30	16,54	20,13	20,50	19,77	13,86
El Salvador	0,09	0,57	3,28	9,05	13,97	18,49	23,74	30,81
Jamaica	0,05	0,65	3,25	6,70	11,36	18,36	25,03	34,60

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup as number one to three in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 4. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in August (before MD1):

team	WC	diff		IPO	diff
Mexico	96,96	7,17		2,20	-3,46
USA	91,94	4,34		5,52	-1,64
Canada	63,00	10,73		18,88	-0,37
Panama	20,57	11,07		25,53	14,80
Costa Rica	10,44	-14,28		15,58	-3,56
Honduras	9,20	-5,78		16,54	2,40
Jamaica	3,95	-8,27		6,70	-6,48
El Salvador	3,94	-4,98		9,05	-1,69

AFC

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Iran	78,13	18,17	3,16	0,45	0,09	0,00
Korea Republic	18,87	55,06	19,42	5,03	1,29	0,33
Iraq	2,28	19,07	45,06	19,10	9,83	4,66
United Arab Emirates	0,41	3,83	13,97	28,55	31,54	21,70
Syria	0,14	2,08	9,23	24,21	28,68	35,66
Lebanon	0,17	1,79	9,16	22,66	28,57	37,65
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Australia	54,55	26,57	13,46	4,82	0,58	0,02
Japan	22,72	33,22	27,20	12,75	3,42	0,69
Saudi Arabia	20,03	30,16	30,79	14,66	3,89	0,47
Oman	2,36	7,59	19,11	39,11	22,95	8,88
China PR	0,28	1,71	6,19	17,25	38,48	36,09
Vietnam	0,06	0,75	3,25	11,41	30,68	53,85

To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Also columns are given with the difference in probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in July (before MD1):

team	qualify	diff Q		win		diff win
Iraq	45,06	2,68		32,32	[71,73]	0,66
Saudi Arabia	30,79	-3,11		9,26	[30,07]	0,11
Japan	27,20	14,88		13,16	[48,38]	7,77
Korea Republic	19,42	2,85		15,62	[80,43]	1,63
Oman	19,11	3,23		3,95	[20,67]	0,99
United Arab Emirates	13,97	-2,90		7,36	[52,68]	-3,08
Australia	13,46	-2,58		5,73	[42,57]	-0,97
Syria	9,23	-1,23		4,52	[48,97]	-0,96
Lebanon	9,16	5,60		3,45	[37,66]	1,91
China PR	6,19	-9,17		1,36	[21,97]	-1,63
Vietnam	3,25	-3,25		0,53	[16,31]	-0,30
Iran	3,16	-7,00		2,74	[86,71]	-6,13

To qualify for the World Cup as number one or two in the group. In the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in July (before MD1):

team	WC	diff
Iran	96,30	9,07
Australia	81,12	5,89
Korea Republic	73,93	-4,45
Japan	55,94	-25,63
Saudi Arabia	50,19	24,05
Iraq	21,35	-4,76
Oman	9,95	2,53
United Arab Emirates	4,24	-1,12
Syria	2,22	-0,15
China PR	1,99	-5,37
Lebanon	1,96	1,41
Vietnam	0,81	-1,47

Pots for the final draw

These pots are based on the FIFA ranking after the March 2022 window when 30 participants are known. Pot 1 contains Qatar and the 7 top ranked participants, pot 2 contains the next 8 highest ranked participants, etc. The teams are ordered by ascending average weighted pot distribution. In the first column the probability to qualify for the World Cup (without IPO's of course) is given:

team	WC	pot1	pot2	pot3	pot4
Qatar	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Belgium	99,98	99,98	0	0	0
Brazil	99,98	99,96	0,02	0	0
England	99,87	99,87	0	0	0
France	99,06	99,06	0	0	0
Italy	93,62	93,62	0	0	0
Argentina	98,59	92,19	6,39	0,01	0
Portugal	96,50	41,03	55,47	0	0
----------------------------
Mexico	96,96	32,34	62,00	2,62	0
Denmark	99,99	2,91	96,77	0,31	0
Spain	82,15	22,58	59,57	0	0
Germany	98,91	0	84,52	14,39	0
USA	91,94	9,66	73,04	9,24	0
Netherlands	90,96	0,10	90,57	0,29	0
Uruguay	78,12	6,10	66,34	5,68	0
Croatia	86,67	0	51,39	35,28	0
----------------------------
Iran	96,30	0	1,42	92,35	2,53
Colombia	61,51	0,58	47,01	13,92	0
Switzerland	52,16	0,02	49,62	2,52	0
Australia	81,12	0	0,09	54,79	26,24
Sweden	56,72	0	32,57	24,15	0
Senegal	65,82	0	11,83	52,33	1,66
Algeria	63,64	0	2,74	54,23	6,67
Korea Republic	73,93	0	0,01	32,63	41,29
----------------------------
Tunisia	60,40	0	2,50	48,21	9,69
Nigeria	62,38	0	0,53	39,82	22,03
Japan	55,94	0	0,17	52,07	3,70
Morocco	55,28	0	0,78	40,04	14,46
Canada	63,00	0	0	6,64	56,36
Saudi Arabia	50,19	0	0	0,71	49,48
Russia	36,57	0	0	20,99	15,58
Serbia	30,64	0	0,07	29,83	0,74
Poland	28,29	0	0,45	27,81	0,03
Cote d'Ivoire	32,33	0	0,02	6,22	26,09
Egypt	31,59	0	0	6,95	24,64
Wales	23,85	0	2,54	21,30	0,01
Ecuador	31,46	0	0	2,95	28,51
Czech Republic	22,55	0	0,02	20,12	2,41
Norway	22,52	0	0	9,98	12,54
Mali	24,37	0	0	1,74	22,63
Iraq	21,35	0	0	0	21,35
Ghana	19,76	0	0	3,27	16,49
Panama	20,57	0	0	0,05	20,52
Paraguay	15,16	0	0,03	13,38	1,75
Turkey	16,32	0	0	5,96	10,36
South Africa	14,84	0	0	0	14,84
Cameroon	12,96	0	0,01	4,33	8,62
Peru	10,09	0	1,03	9,05	0,01
Benin	12,78	0	0	0	12,78
Ukraine	9,15	0	0,09	9,02	0,04
Costa Rica	10,44	0	0	2,00	8,44
Romania	9,45	0	0	3,69	5,76
Scotland	9,86	0	0	2,20	7,66
Oman	9,95	0	0	0	9,95
Austria	7,75	0	0,02	6,79	0,94
Honduras	9,20	0	0	0,09	9,11
Congo DR	7,45	0	0	0	7,45
Burkina Faso	6,94	0	0	0,98	5,96
Finland	6,17	0	0	0,38	5,79
Chile	4,52	0	0,37	4,15	0
Israel	5,72	0	0	0	5,72
Libya	5,17	0	0	0	5,17
Uganda	4,63	0	0	0	4,63
United Arab Emirates	4,24	0	0	0	4,24
Jamaica	3,95	0	0	0,31	3,64
El Salvador	3,94	0	0	0,02	3,92
Tanzania	3,42	0	0	0	3,42
Greece	3,02	0	0	0,76	2,26
Hungary	2,46	0	0	1,49	0,97
Guinea	2,72	0	0	0,02	2,70
Slovakia	2,19	0	0	1,36	0,83
Kenya	2,31	0	0	0	2,31
Syria	2,22	0	0	0	2,22
Armenia	2,17	0	0	0	2,17
China PR	1,99	0	0	0,02	1,97
Lebanon	1,96	0	0	0	1,96
Guinea-Bissau	1,92	0	0	0	1,92
Ethiopia	1,45	0	0	0	1,45
Zambia	1,39	0	0	0	1,39
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,35	0	0	0,11	1,24
North Macedonia	1,33	0	0	0	1,33
Gabon	1,14	0	0	0,01	1,13
Namibia	1,06	0	0	0	1,06
Albania	1,05	0	0	0,01	1,04
Vietnam	0,81	0	0	0	0,81
Liberia	0,66	0	0	0	0,66
Rwanda	0,56	0	0	0	0,56
Slovenia	0,55	0	0	0,01	0,54
Venezuela	0,41	0	0	0,30	0,11
Madagascar	0,46	0	0	0	0,46
Equatorial Guinea	0,44	0	0	0	0,44
Malawi	0,44	0	0	0	0,44
Zimbabwe	0,41	0	0	0	0,41
Cape Verde Islands	0,38	0	0	0	0,38
Northern Ireland	0,27	0	0	0,11	0,16
Angola	0,29	0	0	0	0,29
Congo	0,18	0	0	0	0,18
Bolivia	0,16	0	0	0	0,16
Mauritania	0,13	0	0	0	0,13
Mozambique	0,11	0	0	0	0,11
Sudan	0,11	0	0	0	0,11
Montenegro	0,06	0	0	0	0,06
Iceland	0,05	0	0	0,01	0,04
Luxembourg	0,04	0	0	0	0,04
Niger	0,04	0	0	0	0,04
Central African Republic	0,02	0	0	0	0,02
Kosovo	0,02	0	0	0	0,02
Togo	0,02	0	0	0	0,02
Bulgaria	0,01	0	0	0	0,01
Andorra	0	0	0	0	0
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	0	0
Belarus	0	0	0	0	0
Comoros	0	0	0	0	0
Cyprus	0	0	0	0	0
Djibouti	0	0	0	0	0
Estonia	0	0	0	0	0
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	0	0
Gambia	0	0	0	0	0
Georgia	0	0	0	0	0
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0	0
Kazakhstan	0	0	0	0	0
Latvia	0	0	0	0	0
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0	0
Lithuania	0	0	0	0	0
Malta	0	0	0	0	0
Moldova	0	0	0	0	0
Republic of Ireland	0	0	0	0	0
San Marino	0	0	0	0	0
Sierra Leone	0	0	0	0	0

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.