FIFA will publish the October ranking this Thursday October 21st. This final preview contains 161 matches, out of 165 matches played since September 13th.
Only today's final of the South Asian Championship between India and Nepal to be played yet for this ranking.
Resulting points and positions for both teams will be:
India |
Nepal |
|||
pts |
pos |
pts |
pos |
|
win India |
1182,73 |
106 |
971,42 |
169 |
PSO win India |
1181,48 |
106 |
973,92 |
169 |
PSO win Nepal |
1180,23 |
106 |
975,17 |
168 |
win Nepal |
1177,73 |
106 |
976,42 |
168 |
Elo predicts a straight win for India.
Two teams drop to a new low:
Moldova (181 - 177 in November 2020)
Guam (206 - 205 in November 2004)
pos Oct |
team |
pts Oct |
+/- pos |
+/- pts |
1 |
Belgium |
1832,33 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Brazil |
1820,36 |
0 |
8,63 |
3 |
France |
1779,24 |
1 |
24,93 |
4 |
Italy |
1750,52 |
1 |
14,79 |
5 |
England |
1750,16 |
-2 |
-5,28 |
6 |
Argentina |
1738,79 |
0 |
13,48 |
7 |
Spain |
1687,66 |
1 |
13,98 |
8 |
Portugal |
1681,73 |
-1 |
6,83 |
9 |
Mexico |
1672,86 |
0 |
6,67 |
10 |
Denmark |
1668,98 |
0 |
10,49 |
11 |
Netherlands |
1652,01 |
0 |
3,81 |
12 |
Germany |
1642,47 |
2 |
14,67 |
13 |
USA |
1639,42 |
0 |
-3,68 |
14 |
Switzerland |
1633,80 |
1 |
11,07 |
15 |
Uruguay |
1625,67 |
-3 |
-19,75 |
16 |
Colombia |
1618,76 |
0 |
0,36 |
17 |
Sweden |
1618,69 |
1 |
12,66 |
18 |
Croatia |
1608,84 |
-1 |
0,59 |
19 |
Wales |
1566,77 |
0 |
3,18 |
20 |
Senegal |
1564,95 |
0 |
9,58 |
21 |
Chile |
1546,26 |
2 |
9,73 |
22 |
Iran |
1545,02 |
0 |
6,94 |
23 |
Poland |
1542,20 |
1 |
10,38 |
24 |
Peru |
1534,06 |
-3 |
-14,72 |
25 |
Serbia |
1527,34 |
3 |
11,37 |
26 |
Ukraine |
1527,12 |
1 |
7,05 |
27 |
Tunisia |
1525,30 |
-2 |
-1,57 |
28 |
Japan |
1517,69 |
-2 |
-2,77 |
29 |
Morocco |
1513,00 |
4 |
19,77 |
30 |
Algeria |
1509,04 |
0 |
10,42 |
31 |
Czech Republic |
1503,23 |
0 |
8,45 |
32 |
Austria |
1501,09 |
-3 |
-3,73 |
33 |
Russia |
1497,45 |
4 |
22,02 |
34 |
Australia |
1489,88 |
-2 |
-4,11 |
35 |
Korea Republic |
1489,10 |
1 |
9,69 |
36 |
Nigeria |
1478,18 |
-2 |
-14,19 |
37 |
Norway |
1471,62 |
2 |
9,86 |
38 |
Paraguay |
1461,28 |
-3 |
-23,03 |
39 |
Turkey |
1460,53 |
2 |
5,09 |
40 |
Slovakia |
1454,16 |
-2 |
-8,43 |
41 |
Romania |
1451,76 |
1 |
-0,04 |
42 |
Scotland |
1451,37 |
3 |
15,73 |
43 |
Hungary |
1449,08 |
-3 |
-7,85 |
44 |
Egypt |
1448,78 |
4 |
14,16 |
45 |
Costa Rica |
1439,53 |
-1 |
1,24 |
46 |
Qatar |
1437,73 |
-3 |
-8,10 |
47 |
Greece |
1434,83 |
-1 |
-0,60 |
48 |
Canada |
1432,34 |
3 |
16,11 |
49 |
Saudi Arabia |
1432,21 |
7 |
25,87 |
50 |
Venezuela |
1431,51 |
-1 |
-2,63 |
51 |
Republic of Ireland |
1430,59 |
-1 |
11,89 |
52 |
Ghana |
1424,87 |
1 |
13,57 |
53 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
1424,12 |
1 |
13,56 |
54 |
Cameroon |
1418,21 |
4 |
13,75 |
55 |
Ecuador |
1416,93 |
-3 |
1,84 |
56 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1414,92 |
1 |
9,62 |
57 |
Mali |
1412,39 |
4 |
15,87 |
58 |
Northern Ireland |
1412,21 |
-11 |
-22,85 |
59 |
Jamaica |
1407,72 |
0 |
5,33 |
60 |
Finland |
1403,96 |
-5 |
-2,96 |
61 |
Burkina Faso |
1400,56 |
1 |
6,74 |
62 |
Iceland |
1397,49 |
-2 |
0,17 |
63 |
Albania |
1374,33 |
3 |
5,60 |
64 |
Slovenia |
1364,96 |
0 |
-5,50 |
65 |
South Africa |
1361,97 |
8 |
13,37 |
66 |
El Salvador |
1361,38 |
-1 |
-8,35 |
67 |
Congo DR |
1357,61 |
0 |
-7,56 |
68 |
Honduras |
1355,17 |
-5 |
-16,44 |
69 |
Panama |
1354,34 |
-1 |
-4,43 |
70 |
Bulgaria |
1350,11 |
0 |
-3,82 |
71 |
United Arab Emirates |
1349,42 |
-2 |
-8,42 |
72 |
Iraq |
1346,20 |
0 |
-2,63 |
73 |
Montenegro |
1346,19 |
-2 |
-6,64 |
74 |
North Macedonia |
1343,19 |
0 |
-2,28 |
75 |
China PR |
1334,20 |
0 |
-0,32 |
76 |
Cape Verde Islands |
1327,62 |
1 |
13,43 |
77 |
Oman |
1315,38 |
1 |
3,56 |
78 |
Bolivia |
1309,75 |
5 |
26,10 |
79 |
Guinea |
1309,15 |
-3 |
-16,94 |
80 |
Israel |
1305,76 |
0 |
-4,57 |
81 |
Curacao |
1299,13 |
-2 |
-11,27 |
82 |
Uganda |
1297,43 |
4 |
17,58 |
83 |
Benin |
1282,34 |
-1 |
-8,47 |
84 |
Uzbekistan |
1279,73 |
0 |
-2,54 |
85 |
Syria |
1274,72 |
-4 |
-22,03 |
86 |
Haiti |
1268,05 |
1 |
0 |
87 |
Zambia |
1260,79 |
-2 |
-19,40 |
88 |
Gabon |
1260,39 |
0 |
-6,22 |
89 |
Armenia |
1257,17 |
0 |
-5,23 |
90 |
Jordan |
1254,12 |
3 |
8,48 |
91 |
Bahrain |
1250,92 |
0 |
-0,39 |
92 |
Lebanon |
1250,08 |
5 |
16,47 |
93 |
Georgia |
1243,88 |
3 |
3,01 |
94 |
Luxembourg |
1234,13 |
0 |
-10,42 |
95 |
Belarus |
1233,59 |
-5 |
-21,22 |
96 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1230,60 |
2 |
0 |
97 |
Congo |
1228,16 |
-5 |
-19,65 |
98 |
Vietnam |
1222,92 |
-3 |
-21,17 |
99 |
Madagascar |
1218,76 |
1 |
7,57 |
100 |
Palestine |
1211,32 |
-1 |
0 |
101 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
1207,94 |
0 |
0 |
102 |
Mauritania |
1202,17 |
2 |
1,57 |
103 |
Cyprus |
1192,92 |
0 |
-9,73 |
104 |
Kenya |
1189,24 |
-2 |
-15,88 |
105 |
Estonia |
1184,03 |
6 |
9,59 |
106 |
India |
1182,73 |
1 |
1,28 |
107 |
Sierra Leone |
1177,71 |
1 |
0 |
108 |
Namibia |
1175,54 |
-2 |
-9,58 |
109 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1175,03 |
-4 |
-11,58 |
110 |
Korea DPR |
1169,96 |
2 |
0 |
111 |
New Zealand |
1161,84 |
10 |
12,41 |
112 |
Libya |
1161,74 |
-2 |
-13,20 |
113 |
Kosovo |
1161,19 |
-4 |
-15,09 |
114 |
Tajikistan |
1157,77 |
4 |
0 |
115 |
Central African Republic |
1150,45 |
9 |
14,20 |
116 |
Faroe Islands |
1148,94 |
-2 |
-11,45 |
117 |
Thailand |
1148,63 |
5 |
0 |
118 |
Zimbabwe |
1147,34 |
-5 |
-13,57 |
119 |
Azerbaijan |
1146,87 |
-2 |
-11,59 |
120 |
Malawi |
1146,25 |
-5 |
-13,56 |
121 |
Niger |
1145,75 |
-2 |
-10,42 |
122 |
Mozambique |
1144,85 |
-6 |
-13,74 |
123 |
Guatemala |
1141,94 |
0 |
3,54 |
124 |
Sudan |
1139,67 |
3 |
8,76 |
125 |
Kazakhstan |
1137,46 |
-5 |
-13,72 |
126 |
Equatorial Guinea |
1135,52 |
5 |
19,40 |
127 |
Philippines |
1131,93 |
-2 |
0 |
128 |
Antigua and Barbuda |
1131,08 |
-2 |
0 |
129 |
Angola |
1124,33 |
0 |
6,21 |
130 |
Tanzania |
1123,84 |
2 |
8,47 |
131 |
Turkmenistan |
1117,60 |
-1 |
0 |
132 |
Comoros |
1112,00 |
1 |
0 |
133 |
Rwanda |
1111,79 |
-5 |
-17,58 |
134 |
Togo |
1110,59 |
2 |
19,64 |
135 |
Lithuania |
1097,80 |
2 |
15,60 |
136 |
Latvia |
1084,88 |
-1 |
-7,57 |
137 |
Ethiopia |
1079,37 |
-3 |
-13,37 |
138 |
St. Kitts and Nevis |
1077,76 |
0 |
0 |
139 |
Suriname |
1077,57 |
0 |
0 |
140 |
Solomon Islands |
1072,78 |
0 |
0 |
141 |
Burundi |
1070,95 |
0 |
0 |
142 |
Kuwait |
1065,31 |
0 |
0 |
143 |
Nicaragua |
1064,32 |
0 |
0 |
144 |
Lesotho |
1057,62 |
1 |
0 |
145 |
Myanmar |
1057,44 |
1 |
0 |
146 |
Eswatini |
1054,14 |
1 |
0 |
147 |
Hong Kong |
1053,39 |
1 |
0 |
148 |
Gambia |
1053,18 |
1 |
0 |
149 |
Botswana |
1051,59 |
1 |
0 |
150 |
Liberia |
1046,53 |
-6 |
-14,40 |
151 |
Yemen |
1046,26 |
1 |
0 |
152 |
Afghanistan |
1045,34 |
1 |
0 |
153 |
Andorra |
1038,88 |
3 |
5,61 |
154 |
New Caledonia |
1035,12 |
1 |
0 |
155 |
Malaysia |
1034,87 |
-1 |
-5,94 |
156 |
Maldives |
1030,92 |
2 |
2,62 |
157 |
Dominican Republic |
1029,42 |
0 |
0 |
158 |
Chinese Taipei |
1017,78 |
-7 |
-28,56 |
159 |
Tahiti |
1014,27 |
0 |
0 |
160 |
Singapore |
1000,35 |
0 |
0 |
161 |
Fiji |
996,27 |
0 |
0 |
162 |
Barbados |
995,94 |
0 |
0 |
163 |
Vanuatu |
995,62 |
0 |
0 |
164 |
Papua New Guinea |
990,55 |
0 |
0 |
165 |
Indonesia |
985,61 |
10 |
28,56 |
166 |
South Sudan |
982,84 |
-1 |
0 |
167 |
Bermuda |
982,43 |
-1 |
0 |
168 |
Grenada |
974,03 |
-1 |
0 |
169 |
Nepal |
971,42 |
-1 |
0,47 |
170 |
Cambodia |
970,42 |
8 |
20,16 |
171 |
Belize |
967,42 |
-2 |
0 |
172 |
Mauritius |
964,94 |
-2 |
0 |
173 |
Malta |
964,21 |
-2 |
1,05 |
174 |
Puerto Rico |
962,77 |
-2 |
0 |
175 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
960,71 |
-2 |
0 |
176 |
Guyana |
958,87 |
-2 |
0 |
177 |
St. Lucia |
953,45 |
-1 |
0 |
178 |
Montserrat |
950,71 |
-1 |
0 |
179 |
Cuba |
946,86 |
0 |
0 |
180 |
Chad |
935,00 |
1 |
0 |
181 |
Moldova |
933,81 |
-1 |
-6,49 |
182 |
Macau |
922,10 |
0 |
0 |
183 |
Dominica |
916,72 |
0 |
0 |
184 |
Mongolia |
916,68 |
0 |
0 |
185 |
Laos |
912,07 |
1 |
0 |
186 |
Bhutan |
910,96 |
1 |
0 |
187 |
Bangladesh |
907,84 |
2 |
1,00 |
188 |
Djibouti |
905,83 |
-3 |
-6,74 |
189 |
Brunei Darussalam |
903,90 |
1 |
0 |
190 |
Liechtenstein |
903,63 |
-2 |
-7,31 |
191 |
Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe |
903,31 |
0 |
0 |
192 |
American Samoa |
900,27 |
0 |
0 |
193 |
Samoa |
894,26 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
Timor-Leste |
879,43 |
0 |
0 |
195 |
Somalia |
873,71 |
0 |
0 |
196 |
Cayman Islands |
873,64 |
0 |
0 |
197 |
Pakistan |
866,81 |
1 |
0 |
198 |
Gibraltar |
863,17 |
-1 |
-4,53 |
199 |
Seychelles |
862,84 |
0 |
0 |
200 |
Tonga |
861,81 |
0 |
0 |
201 |
Aruba |
859,22 |
0 |
-0,75 |
202 |
Bahamas |
858,50 |
0 |
0 |
203 |
Eritrea |
855,56 |
1 |
0 |
204 |
Sri Lanka |
840,11 |
1 |
-6,43 |
205 |
Turks and Caicos Islands |
839,84 |
1 |
0 |
206 |
Guam |
838,33 |
-3 |
-20,16 |
207 |
US Virgin Islands |
816,13 |
0 |
0 |
208 |
British Virgin Islands |
812,94 |
0 |
0 |
209 |
Anguilla |
792,34 |
0 |
0 |
210 |
San Marino |
782,71 |
0 |
-8,46 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
FIFA excluded 4 matches that I included:
ReplyDelete2021-09-24 El Salvador - Guatemala 0-2, friendly
2021-09-26 Nepal - Oman 2-7, friendly
2021-09-30 Egypt - Liberia 2-0 friendly
2021-10-01 Curacao - Aruba 7-1, friendly (ABCS Tournament)
FIFA included 3 matches that I excluded:
2021-10-06 Sierra Leone - South Sudan 1-1, friendly (4 nations tournament in Morocco)
2021-10-09 Sierra Leone - Gambia 2-1, friendly (4 nations tournament in Morocco)
2021-10-12 Gambia - South Sudan 2-1, friendly (4 nations tournament in Morocco)
Hi Ed, yes, at least the Egypt match makes sense as they used 10 substitutes in that match.
DeleteBut I have another issue. You've mentioned in the past that you have the exact same numbers as FIFA, but I think you're being a bit liberal with the truth there. For Antigua and Barbuda and Zambia there are differences that I can't explain. When I rebase my numbers to yours I get the following differences (Antigua and Barbuda already for the previous ranking, but since they didn't play this time for simplicity I look at the latest ranking):
Antigua and Barbuda:
My own program and your spreadsheet come up with
1260.793 (rounded to three digits), but FIFA mention 1260.8 their website. This isn't exactly the same. Logically we should both have 1260.79 and not 1260.8(0).
Zambia:
My own program and your spreadsheet come up with 1131.075 (rounded to three digits), but FIFA mention 1131.07. Logically therefore we should both have 1131.08 and not 1131.07 like FIFA does.
So I think you should mention such discrepancies.
Morocco reserve team also played in that touranement, won 3 games, were their games included in the fifa ranking
DeleteNo, Morocco's matches in that friendly tournament were not included.
Deletethanks a lot
DeleteHi Ed,- has FIFA explained why the matches other than EGY-LIB were excluded? - some registration failure, or what....?
DeleteI don't actively search for the reasons why a match is excluded. It could be more than 6 substitutes, use of a non-FIFA approved ref, an agreement between the teams in the match, anything really.
DeleteOne thing is clear though: FIFA never explains her acts :)
Hi Ed , where do you find the list of included and excluded games ? ( if this is a thing you wanna keep to yourself, I understand completely )
DeleteThere is no such list from FIFA. See here for my sources.
DeleteTo be exact: I have ATG at 1131,07503 and ZAM at 1260,7927. FIFA has ATG at 1131.07 and ZAM at 1260.80.
ReplyDeleteWith regard to ATG: this discrepancy of 0.01 point I've seen since the August 2021 ranking. If you round their points tally normally to two decimals you would get 1131.08. I've earlier found that FIFA sometimes rounds not normally when it's about rounding x.50 to integers or rounding x.xx50 to two decimals. In all the years that I calculate the ranking points myself (since 2007) I've found them rounding those specific cases sometimes upwards and sometimes downwards. There doesn't seem to be a strict rounding rule they are applying in this case. So this discrepancy is for me totally explainable and that's why I don't mention it.
With regard to ZAM: this October ranking is the first time that I see a 0.01 point difference for Zambia. For them two manual corrections were made earlier: one in February 2020 about the then excluded match CIV-ZAM of 19 Jun 2019 and one in December 2020 about the then excluded match ETH-ZAM of 22 Oct 2020. You can find those manual corrections mentioned in my sheet.
Because at the time of the determination of the magnitude of the manual corrections the FIFA ranking was still given in integer numbers, these manual corrections implicitly carry a small degree of uncertainty with them. It is for me therefore plausible that the manual correction term should be slightly adapted, so that the points tally of Zambia on two decimals is correct again. For me this discrepancy is explainable and I will make the slight adjustment in the manual corrections for Zambia soon.
So to conclude: I see both discrepancies of 0.01 point, I think they are both explainable and that one of the two can and shall be mended. Is this enough mentioning for your taste :) ?
Such a long reply without any new facts. I think you could just have kept it short and said that indeed the numbers were not exact and that for the previous two rankings there were two teams where the ranking poiints were in fact *not* exact.
DeleteI wrote an elaborate reply in order for you to try to understand. It's a pity you don't.
ReplyDeleteYou don't even read my reply thoroughly: 'that for the previous two rankings there were two teams where the ranking poiints were in fact *not* exact.' That is completely *not* what I said.
From now on I will reply to you with one-liners 'for better communication'.
This 0.01 for Zambia is very strange. I think that the problem started when FIFA tried to revert October 2020 ZAM/ETH/SDN matches in November (but there were no decimal points in official ranking). In next published rankings it was ok.
ReplyDeleteI was trying to recalculate 2020/2021 rankings but I didn't find solution.
I'm still curious about this November 2020 reverting.. and why only one ETH/ZAM match was excluded.
I make calculations in database with many decimal digits and
this difference that it is between [+0,0023 , +0,0123] keeps my eyes awake and it's only seen for ZAM.
This small difference could be the connected with draw BEN/ZAM match 2021-06-08. Maybe some ZAM matches or ZAM's rivals' matches were disordered (as two matches of one team as I remember).
No more ideas...